It’s not often that Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Alexander Zverev, Juan Martin Del Potro, Dominic Thiem, Kei Nishikori, and Nick Kyrgios can land in the same half of a slam and the draw is still thought of as balanced. In fact, that has never been the case. But it is now, because almost all of the aforementioned players head into the All-England Club with some questions and arguably the two best grass-courters in the world—2017 Wimbledon finalists Roger Federer and Marin Cilic—find themselves on the other side. Also in the Federer-Cilic half are Grigor Dimitrov, Borna Coric, and accomplished grass-courters Kevin Anderson, Sam Querrey, Milos Raonic, and Gilles Muller.
The result should be a wildly entertaining fortnight from start to finish.
Federer’s quarter
Although the bottom half of the draw is tougher overall, Federer may not be able to completely fly through his quarter. Dusan Lajovic isn’t the easiest of first-round opponents and possible third-round foe Ivo Karlovic is someone nobody ever wants to meet at Wimbledon (just ask Lleyton Hewitt!). Federer is also on a collision course for the last 16 with Coric, who just upset the Swiss 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-2 in the Halle title match. Coric, though, could be in line for a difficult third-rounder against Antalya runner-up Adrian Mannarino.
Anderson and Querrey lurk on the other side of this section. The two big servers consistently enjoy success at the Grand Slam level; in fact, they have faced each other in the second week at two of the past four majors (Querrey won 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-7(11), 6-3) in the Wimbledon fourth round before Anderson prevailed 7-6(5), 6-7(9), 6-3, 7-6(6) in the U.S. Open quarters). Their final on the indoor hard courts of New York earlier this season required a third-set tiebreaker. Querrey, though, has a tough draw—potentially with Sergiy Stakhovsky in the last 64 and either Richard Gasquet or Gael Monfils in the third round. Anderson could run into Muller, a 2017 Wimbledon quarterfinalist, in the last 32.
Best first-round matchup – (23) Richard Gasquet vs. Gael Monfils
This has five sets written all over it. Monfils has been ousted from Wimbledon the last three years by fellow Frenchmen, and in five sets every time (against Gilles Simon in 2015, Jeremy Chardy in 2016, and Mannarino in 2017). The last three non-retirement matches between Monfils and Gasquet have all required deciding sets, including a 6-2, 6-7(7), 7-6(4) victory for Monfils in their most recent meeting last summer on the grass courts of Eastbourne. Gasquet recently triumphed in ‘s-Hetogenbosch, and although Monfils has struggled in 2018 he is coming off a decent semifinal performance in Antalya.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (25) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Gilles Muller
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Borna Coric vs. (22) Adrian Mannarino
Possible surprises – Many in the tennis world are going ahead and penciling in a second-Monday showdown between Federer and Coric in a rematch of the Halle final. Not so fast. Coric faces what could be a rough opener against Daniil Medvedev and Mannarino is a master on grass. The Frenchman, who is looking at a favorable draw through two rounds, could end up being Federer’s fourth-round opponent. Additionally, don’t be surprised if the expected Querrey vs. Anderson fourth-rounder becomes Muller vs. Stakhovsky.
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Cilic’s quarter
Federer would have preferred to see Dimitrov instead of Cilic on this side of the bracket, just as Cilic surely wanted to show up in Nadal’s half instead of Federer’s. Aside from that, though, this is an outstanding draw for the third-seeded Croat. His nearest seed is an injury-plagued Filip Krajinovic and his two potential seeded fourth-round foes are Raonic and Lucas Pouille. Raonic is once again dealing with an injury (shoulder), while Pouille is a disappointing 5-9 in his last 14 tournament matches. The Frenchman also has a tricky opener on his hands with borderline grass-court specialist Denis Kudla.
Right now, of course, the big story in this section is a first-round battle between Dimitrov and Stan Wawrinka. Due to his long-term injury layoff, Wawrinka goes into the All-England Club unseeded and it left him at the mercy of the draw—which produced something worthy of a major semifinal when both men are at their best. Neither one is anywhere close to his best at the moment, which means the winner could be in trouble against either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Jared Donaldson in the third round.
Best first-round matchup — (6) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Stan Wawrinka
From a quality standpoint, this probably won’t be one to store in the video archives. Dimitrov has been unable to build on the momentum from his 2017 Nitto ATP Finals triumph and Wawrinka is still rusty as he returns from knee problems. The Bulgarian is just 19-12 this season and 11th in the race to London, while the Swiss is 5-9 and coming off a blowout loss to Murray in the Eastbourne opening round. Still, Wawrinka is three-time major champion, Dimitrov is a former Wimbledon semifinalist, and they are two of the biggest names in the field. This is without question the marquee matchup of the first two days.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (9) John Isner vs. Steve Johnson
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Milos Raonic vs. (17) Lucas Pouille
Possible surprises — Isner has been the No. 1 American for much of the last decade and he is the No. 9 seed this fortnight, but it is a different duo from the United States that has a much better chance of faring well at SW19. Kudla advanced to the fourth round in 2015 and his draw could open up nicely if he upsets Pouille in the opening round. Meanwhile, Steve Johnson should be the considered the favorite if he faces Isner in the last 64. Johnson has won four consecutive meetings with his countryman and is far better-suited for grass. If the world No. 42 wins that one, his draw opens up to a significant extent.
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Zverev’s quarter
Zverev and Thiem also played in the same section of the French Open draw and managed to book their spots (Zverev just barely) in a head-to-head quarterfinal collision. What are the chances they successfully battle into another quarterfinal contest at Wimbledon? Unlikely at best. Thiem just about warrants the “clay-court specialist” stigma and his road is a rough one, likely featuring Karen Khachanov in the second round, either Fernando Verdasco or Frances Tiafoe thereafter, and Djokovic to begin week two. Zverev could run into either Kyrgios or Nishikori on the second Monday.
Can Djokovic seize an opportunity in this quarter and take his 2018 comeback to a whole new level? Things have been trending in the right direction for the Serb since he unceremoniously exited Indian Wells and Miami, with a semifinal run in Rome, a quarterfinal performance at the French Open, and a runner-up result at Queen’s Club (had championship point against Cilic before losing in three sets). Djokovic should coast through two rounds in London before potentially running into Kyle Edmund.
Best first-round matchup — (30) Fernando Verdasco vs. Frances Tiafoe
Two of the biggest forehands on tour will be on display in this one. That is just about where the similarities end, because Tiafoe is in the early stages of his career and Verdasco is a 34-year-old lefty who is in his 18th season on the circuit. Although the Spaniard has never won a grass-court title and only one of his 23 ATP finals has come on the greenery, he has reached the second week at Wimbledon four times—including a quarterfinal appearance in 2013. Tiafoe beat Robin Haase during first-round action at the All-England Club and the American recently made it to the quarters at Queen’s Club. This should be a good one; and a fun one.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (4) Dominic Thiem vs. Karen Khachanov
Best potential third-round matchup – (12) Novak Djokovic vs. (21) Kyle Edmund
Possible surprises — Although this section is completely loaded, no seed is a lock to go deep. If an unseeded player steals the semifinal spot, it will almost certainly be Khachanov. The 22-year-old Russian is 5-2 in his last seven matches, reached the Wimbledon third round last summer (lost to Nadal), and his draw of David Ferrer in the first round and Thiem in the second really isn’t bad. Don’t sleep on lucky loser Bernard Tomic, either. Like it or not, the Aussie begins with another lucky loser (Hubert Hurkacz) and could parlay an opening win into a real run if Nishikori and Kyrgios are less than 100 percent.
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Nadal’s quarter
Nadal will not mind his draw at all even though his side of the bracket is unquestionably deeper from top to bottom. None of the seeds in the Spaniard’s eighth—Diego Schwartzman, Fabio Fognini, and Marco Cecchinato—enjoy playing on grass. Schwartzman has never won a single match on this surface and Cecchinato had never won one until he picked up two victories this past week in Eastbourne. Speaking of Eastbourne, grass guru Mischa Zverev captured his first career ATP title and is Nadal’s likely third-round adversary at the All-England Club. Zverev is expected to be the world No. 1’s most difficult proposition prior to the quarterfinals.
The other half of this section is completely up for grabs, as the seeds are vulnerable and the unseeded floaters are dangerous. Del Potro has not yet played on grass in 2018, David Goffin is struggling, Jack Sock is in absolutely disastrous form, and Denis Shapovalov is a novice on the green stuff. Whoever emerges from the early-round quartet consisting of Murray, Benoit Paire, Shapovalov, and Chardy could go a long way.
Best first-round matchup — Benoit Paire vs. Andy Murray
This not a good matchup for Paire, as a no-nonsense Murray has been able to tune out the Frenchman’s shenanigans en route to a 2-0 lead in the head-to-head series (including a 7-6(1), 6-4, 6-4 victory in the Wimbledon fourth round last summer). The Scot can handle his opponent’s firepower with strong defense and can exploit the underdog’s forehand. All of that being said, this is obviously not the same Murray that Paire saw in 2016 and 2017. Early returns in the former world No. 1’s 2018 comeback have been encouraging, but he still has just three matches under his belt (a win over Wawrinka plus losses to Kyrgios and Edmund).
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Best potential second-round matchup – (5) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Feliciano Lopez
Best potential third-round matchup – (5) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Andy Murray
Possible surprises — Muller (twice), Lukas Rosol, and Dustin Brown are among those who have handed Nadal losses at the All-England Club. What do they have in common? Underdogs with big serves who can shorten points and quite simply take the racket out of Nadal’s hands. That sounds a lot like the older Zverev brother, who delivered another serve-and-volleying master class from start to finish in Antalya. On the other side of this quarter, watch out for the unseeded contingent of Chardy, Feliciano Lopez, and Matthew Ebden.
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