It’s not often that Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Alexander Zverev, Juan Martin Del Potro, Dominic Thiem, Kei Nishikori, and Nick Kyrgios can land in the same half of a slam and the draw is still thought of as balanced. In fact, that has never been the case. But it is now, because almost all of the aforementioned players head into the All-England Club with some questions and arguably the two best grass-courters in the world—2017 Wimbledon finalists Roger Federer and Marin Cilic—find themselves on the other side. Also in the Federer-Cilic half are Grigor Dimitrov, Borna Coric, and accomplished grass-courters Kevin Anderson, Sam Querrey, Milos Raonic, and Gilles Muller.
The result should be a wildly entertaining fortnight from start to finish.
Federer’s quarter
Although the bottom half of the draw is tougher overall, Federer may not be able to completely fly through his quarter. Dusan Lajovic isn’t the easiest of first-round opponents and possible third-round foe Ivo Karlovic is someone nobody ever wants to meet at Wimbledon (just ask Lleyton Hewitt!). Federer is also on a collision course for the last 16 with Coric, who just upset the Swiss 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-2 in the Halle title match. Coric, though, could be in line for a difficult third-rounder against Antalya runner-up Adrian Mannarino.
Anderson and Querrey lurk on the other side of this section. The two big servers consistently enjoy success at the Grand Slam level; in fact, they have faced each other in the second week at two of the past four majors (Querrey won 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3, 6-7(11), 6-3) in the Wimbledon fourth round before Anderson prevailed 7-6(5), 6-7(9), 6-3, 7-6(6) in the U.S. Open quarters). Their final on the indoor hard courts of New York earlier this season required a third-set tiebreaker. Querrey, though, has a tough draw—potentially with Sergiy Stakhovsky in the last 64 and either Richard Gasquet or Gael Monfils in the third round. Anderson could run into Muller, a 2017 Wimbledon quarterfinalist, in the last 32.
Best first-round matchup – (23) Richard Gasquet vs. Gael Monfils
This has five sets written all over it. Monfils has been ousted from Wimbledon the last three years by fellow Frenchmen, and in five sets every time (against Gilles Simon in 2015, Jeremy Chardy in 2016, and Mannarino in 2017). The last three non-retirement matches between Monfils and Gasquet have all required deciding sets, including a 6-2, 6-7(7), 7-6(4) victory for Monfils in their most recent meeting last summer on the grass courts of Eastbourne. Gasquet recently triumphed in ‘s-Hetogenbosch, and although Monfils has struggled in 2018 he is coming off a decent semifinal performance in Antalya.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (25) Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Gilles Muller
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Borna Coric vs. (22) Adrian Mannarino
Possible surprises – Many in the tennis world are going ahead and penciling in a second-Monday showdown between Federer and Coric in a rematch of the Halle final. Not so fast. Coric faces what could be a rough opener against Daniil Medvedev and Mannarino is a master on grass. The Frenchman, who is looking at a favorable draw through two rounds, could end up being Federer’s fourth-round opponent. Additionally, don’t be surprised if the expected Querrey vs. Anderson fourth-rounder becomes Muller vs. Stakhovsky.
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Cilic’s quarter
Federer would have preferred to see Dimitrov instead of Cilic on this side of the bracket, just as Cilic surely wanted to show up in Nadal’s half instead of Federer’s. Aside from that, though, this is an outstanding draw for the third-seeded Croat. His nearest seed is an injury-plagued Filip Krajinovic and his two potential seeded fourth-round foes are Raonic and Lucas Pouille. Raonic is once again dealing with an injury (shoulder), while Pouille is a disappointing 5-9 in his last 14 tournament matches. The Frenchman also has a tricky opener on his hands with borderline grass-court specialist Denis Kudla.
Right now, of course, the big story in this section is a first-round battle between Dimitrov and Stan Wawrinka. Due to his long-term injury layoff, Wawrinka goes into the All-England Club unseeded and it left him at the mercy of the draw—which produced something worthy of a major semifinal when both men are at their best. Neither one is anywhere close to his best at the moment, which means the winner could be in trouble against either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Jared Donaldson in the third round.
Best first-round matchup — (6) Grigor Dimitrov vs. Stan Wawrinka
From a quality standpoint, this probably won’t be one to store in the video archives. Dimitrov has been unable to build on the momentum from his 2017 Nitto ATP Finals triumph and Wawrinka is still rusty as he returns from knee problems. The Bulgarian is just 19-12 this season and 11th in the race to London, while the Swiss is 5-9 and coming off a blowout loss to Murray in the Eastbourne opening round. Still, Wawrinka is three-time major champion, Dimitrov is a former Wimbledon semifinalist, and they are two of the biggest names in the field. This is without question the marquee matchup of the first two days.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (9) John Isner vs. Steve Johnson
Best potential third-round matchup – (13) Milos Raonic vs. (17) Lucas Pouille
Possible surprises — Isner has been the No. 1 American for much of the last decade and he is the No. 9 seed this fortnight, but it is a different duo from the United States that has a much better chance of faring well at SW19. Kudla advanced to the fourth round in 2015 and his draw could open up nicely if he upsets Pouille in the opening round. Meanwhile, Steve Johnson should be the considered the favorite if he faces Isner in the last 64. Johnson has won four consecutive meetings with his countryman and is far better-suited for grass. If the world No. 42 wins that one, his draw opens up to a significant extent.
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Zverev’s quarter
Zverev and Thiem also played in the same section of the French Open draw and managed to book their spots (Zverev just barely) in a head-to-head quarterfinal collision. What are the chances they successfully battle into another quarterfinal contest at Wimbledon? Unlikely at best. Thiem just about warrants the “clay-court specialist” stigma and his road is a rough one, likely featuring Karen Khachanov in the second round, either Fernando Verdasco or Frances Tiafoe thereafter, and Djokovic to begin week two. Zverev could run into either Kyrgios or Nishikori on the second Monday.
Can Djokovic seize an opportunity in this quarter and take his 2018 comeback to a whole new level? Things have been trending in the right direction for the Serb since he unceremoniously exited Indian Wells and Miami, with a semifinal run in Rome, a quarterfinal performance at the French Open, and a runner-up result at Queen’s Club (had championship point against Cilic before losing in three sets). Djokovic should coast through two rounds in London before potentially running into Kyle Edmund.
Best first-round matchup — (30) Fernando Verdasco vs. Frances Tiafoe
Two of the biggest forehands on tour will be on display in this one. That is just about where the similarities end, because Tiafoe is in the early stages of his career and Verdasco is a 34-year-old lefty who is in his 18th season on the circuit. Although the Spaniard has never won a grass-court title and only one of his 23 ATP finals has come on the greenery, he has reached the second week at Wimbledon four times—including a quarterfinal appearance in 2013. Tiafoe beat Robin Haase during first-round action at the All-England Club and the American recently made it to the quarters at Queen’s Club. This should be a good one; and a fun one.
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Best potential second-round matchup – (4) Dominic Thiem vs. Karen Khachanov
Best potential third-round matchup – (12) Novak Djokovic vs. (21) Kyle Edmund
Possible surprises — Although this section is completely loaded, no seed is a lock to go deep. If an unseeded player steals the semifinal spot, it will almost certainly be Khachanov. The 22-year-old Russian is 5-2 in his last seven matches, reached the Wimbledon third round last summer (lost to Nadal), and his draw of David Ferrer in the first round and Thiem in the second really isn’t bad. Don’t sleep on lucky loser Bernard Tomic, either. Like it or not, the Aussie begins with another lucky loser (Hubert Hurkacz) and could parlay an opening win into a real run if Nishikori and Kyrgios are less than 100 percent.
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Nadal’s quarter
Nadal will not mind his draw at all even though his side of the bracket is unquestionably deeper from top to bottom. None of the seeds in the Spaniard’s eighth—Diego Schwartzman, Fabio Fognini, and Marco Cecchinato—enjoy playing on grass. Schwartzman has never won a single match on this surface and Cecchinato had never won one until he picked up two victories this past week in Eastbourne. Speaking of Eastbourne, grass guru Mischa Zverev captured his first career ATP title and is Nadal’s likely third-round adversary at the All-England Club. Zverev is expected to be the world No. 1’s most difficult proposition prior to the quarterfinals.
The other half of this section is completely up for grabs, as the seeds are vulnerable and the unseeded floaters are dangerous. Del Potro has not yet played on grass in 2018, David Goffin is struggling, Jack Sock is in absolutely disastrous form, and Denis Shapovalov is a novice on the green stuff. Whoever emerges from the early-round quartet consisting of Murray, Benoit Paire, Shapovalov, and Chardy could go a long way.
Best first-round matchup — Benoit Paire vs. Andy Murray
This not a good matchup for Paire, as a no-nonsense Murray has been able to tune out the Frenchman’s shenanigans en route to a 2-0 lead in the head-to-head series (including a 7-6(1), 6-4, 6-4 victory in the Wimbledon fourth round last summer). The Scot can handle his opponent’s firepower with strong defense and can exploit the underdog’s forehand. All of that being said, this is obviously not the same Murray that Paire saw in 2016 and 2017. Early returns in the former world No. 1’s 2018 comeback have been encouraging, but he still has just three matches under his belt (a win over Wawrinka plus losses to Kyrgios and Edmund).
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Best potential second-round matchup – (5) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Feliciano Lopez
Best potential third-round matchup – (5) Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Andy Murray
Possible surprises — Muller (twice), Lukas Rosol, and Dustin Brown are among those who have handed Nadal losses at the All-England Club. What do they have in common? Underdogs with big serves who can shorten points and quite simply take the racket out of Nadal’s hands. That sounds a lot like the older Zverev brother, who delivered another serve-and-volleying master class from start to finish in Antalya. On the other side of this quarter, watch out for the unseeded contingent of Chardy, Feliciano Lopez, and Matthew Ebden.
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Holy crap I forgot to make a bracket for the first time in several slams. That Lebron to LA decision distracted me so much!!
And I still haven’t made picks! I am going to make them now as I just woke up and haven’t looked at any results yet. But oh man do I want to! #WillPowerActivated
Non clay goat!
Hahahahahaha! There’s never been a more succinct statement of a closeted fed obsessed fan feeling personally threatened by Rafa. Hilarious!
Maybe Fed is the non-Rafa/Nole GOAT!
Hahahahaha! Too funny.
BTW guys..the weather for 2 weeks at Wimby is all sunny…except maybe THursday when Rafa plays round 2..
https://weather.com/en-IN/weather/tenday/l/UKXX0085:1:UK
I have had it up to here with this nonsense of separating surfaces by the Fed fans. This garbage has been going on too long. You would never hear anyone diminishing or demeaning achievements on clay. That never happened until Rafa came along until Fed fans needed to trash his prowess on clay.
Great players like Sampras and McEnroe were never able to win RG. If it was easy then they would have done it. In Borg’s day you never heard this stupidity. His brilliance on clay was revered.
Rafa has shown himself to be a complete player, accomplished on all surfaces. It’s time for the haters and obsessed Fed fans to cease and desist from their campaign to relegate him to a so-called clay court specialist. He just happens to play his best on clay. But he has 3 USO titles, 1 AO and 2 Wimbledon’s to attest to his all court skill.
Well said NNY! 👍
Bravo nny. They only do so because they feel personally threatened by Rafa as they feel federers success is somehow their own. Bizarre.
I want to discuss some stats and it will be a long post. You may call them cherrypicking stats but I assume all tennis fans be it roger or rafa or any other players fan agree to one thing,that is slams are by far the most important tennis tournaments. Now let us look at h2h at slams for fed and nadal.It is 9-3 toward rafa. Now let me exclude clay and boom it is still 4-3 in favour of nadal and how I see it is 5 is not very much greater than 4 or 3.Now most fed fans claim that nadal ducked fed at other surfaces. They have played 3 times in wimby and 4 times in ao the best and second best slam for roger respectively which is pretty good for a so called one trick pony. And guess what nadal leads fed at ao 3-1. And about the ducking part I have lost count of how many times fed has lost one rd before meeting nadal at uso. I agree at this moment fed is ahead of nadal in terms of greatness but some comments by fed fans make it look like there is only daylight between fed and nadal which is certainly not the case.
I disagree on your opinion of “greatness” but I respect your opinion as I respect those with the opinion that Federer is still the GOAT even though my opinion differs.
I disrespect anyone’s claim that Federer being GOAT is somehow irrefutable or fact, and then claim that they are somehow not obsessed by him. That kind of intolerance reminds me of fascism.
I just made that argument as because stil i respect the fact that 20>17. But the day nadal crosses feds tally that day your beleif will become more pronounced. As you can guess by my other posts I am a rafa fan
RR: No sensible fan claims that Federer or Nadal have ever “ducked” one another. I am quite sure it has never happened.
Nadal has been better H2H against Fed at slams, no question.
H2H matters barely at all in the larger scheme of things. It is overall performance in tournaments that matters, not how one does against particular players.
Slams matter most, but not to the exclusion of all else. In particular, WTF counts, quite a bit, in any comparison. That is one reason why (objectively speaking), there is quite a lot of daylight between Fed and Nadal’s overall accomplishments.
Opinion not fact: “H2H matters barely at all in the larger scheme of things. It is overall performance in tournaments that matters, not how one does against particular players”
Opinion not fact:, WTF counts, quite a bit, in any comparison. That is one reason why (objectively speaking), there is quite a lot of daylight between Fed and Nadal’s overall accomplishments.”
No that’s subjectively speaking. Learn the meaning of words like any fan with even the smallest amount of objectivity and credibility.
I believe that if Fed, Rafa, Novak, and Laver each had to go to court for a 12-person jury to decide if they are definitively greater than the other 3 guys, there absolutely WOULD be reasonable doubt that ANY one of those guys is “greater” than the other.
They all have their solid cases for why they could be held in higher regard than the others, but then there are just too many arguments for why each of them SHOULDN’T be held in higher regard than the others. It really is a situation of pick your poison. There is very solid reasonable doubt that Fed is just all-around greater than everyone else ever. There is very solid reasonable doubt that Rafa is just all-around greater than everyone else ever. Same for Novak and Laver.
Of course Kevin. GOAT is nothing but subjective opinion.
It’s those that try to make their own opinions as accepted facts that lack credibility to be kind. Like a certain orange fascist, for example.
I thought Laver had a valid point when he said players should be compared against others from their era. Laver is 5’8″, I believe, probably too short to be the GOAT had he played in the current era.
Now Coric is on his way to losing but it will be not correct to undermine feds performance if he went on to win the whole thing because the seed with whom he was supposed to play got eliminated and its not rogers fault. Similarly it was not rafas fault what transpired at uso 2017.
He will go on to win the whole thing. Unless Rafa or Nole have recovered their own grass game to make it to the final. Then we will see.
It will be interesting to see how many times that the roof will be closed when it’s not raining to protect the grass, a use it wasn’t originally intended for. The grass was also made longer this year according to Rafa.
how come from saying there are many possible contyenders few days back , now you saying Fed is sure to win?
The draw
Federer’s form
Grass is longer
(Also I’d forgotten just how bad Cilic was smoked last year)
Not as solid as last year but he’s still the clear favourite. That’s a fact. Check the odds.
long grass doesn’t help much
Not much can be the difference. Rafa was not much better than Federer in the 2008 Wimby final.
Longer grass does help keep the ball slightly lower and protect the grass from drying out when it’s shorter so it helps.
Longer grass, huh ? I did not know somebody owned this profession of grass cutting here
Well said, RR. The same point applies to all slam titles, of course. Obviously, you can’t control who you play. And if a higher ranked player was upset earlier in the tournament, that just shows that the lower ranked player was better on the day. Last year at the USO, there is no reason to doubt that Delpo was a stronger opponent for Rafa in the SF than Federer would have been. JMDP showed it in the previous round by defeating Roger.
You don’t understand the concept of matchups apparently but that doesn’t surprise me.
Joe, if Roger had gotten past Del Potro, I think he would’ve been much much tougher for Rafa (would’ve beaten Rafa IMO). Like Hawkeye said, it’s got a lot to do with the matchup, as it is in most other sports. For example, Thiem got to play Cecchinato in the semis of the French Open, but Cecchinato was surely not a tougher semifinal opponent for Thiem than Djokovic.
Perhaps, Benny, but the issue of match-ups is independent of the point I was making, which basically has to do with current form: Other things being equal, a player who wins a match in a given tournament is the stronger, more in-form player in that tournament. Or, at least, is in better form based on most recent performance, i.e. in that tournament.
What about match-ups? Well, although Fed did very well last year, one certainly wouldn’t say historically that he has been a tough match-up for Nadal. The reverse is true, if anything. And Delpo is not an easy out for anyone if he’s on his game.
What about Cecchinato and Djokovic? Well, of course if Novak is at his best, he will be a much tougher opponent than Cecchinato. That’s a form issue, not a match-up one, as I’m using those terms. However, as everyone knows, Djokovic is well below his usual form, or was at RG. So it’s not obvious that he would have been a tougher opponent for Thiem at that tournament.
Just because fed won the last 5 matches does not guarantee that fed has solved the rafa puzzle. Rafa was a bad matchup and is a bad matchup for fed. There were 3 continuous 5 match streaks for rafa over fed once and so this streak is likely to come to an end in the near future. And yeah everybody will agree that fed is nowhere near the level he was at the sunshine double 2017. But yeah decrease in rafas foot speed and agility does give fed some breathing space. You should not forget that rafa was like an antidote to feds game and was one of the first players to stop his monopoly on non clay events except maybe indoor. And Benny you cannot compare ceccinato to del potro. The latter is a far more established player and more so in uso. You should not forget that rafa struggled in te past more against delpo in outdoor hard than fed so there is some fault in your argument.
these are some of the points I have seen on seen on muliple sites said by fed fans.
Wimby 2008 and ao 2009- fed was suffering from mononucleosis and had confidence issues. Therefore these cannot be considered.
uso 2010 and wimby 2010- Easy draw and did not meet fed. He was lucky.
uso 2013- Only time I have seen fed fans acknowledging rafas performance.
uso 2017- Easy draw,atp 250 level competition.
all french opens-Oh it is clay and we dont consider it as a suface.
Now you see this has become a vicious cycle. Fed fans try to put an asterix beside every nadals grand slam except maybe one and rafa fans try to make the weak era argument. This is actually becoming an entertainment for me as I have nothing to do now. the arguments dont let me get bored. Cheers
RR, I think our two comments above actually have quite a bit in common. I also think your characterization of the debate as a vicious cycle is interesting. I agree that there is no guarantee that Fed will continue to defeat Nadal, though I think that the onus is now on Rafa to come up with something new to turn things around.
For myself, I am happy to give Nadal full credit for all of his slam victories. If I have mentioned mono or anything like that on this forum, it has been in response to (what I perceive to be) Nadal fans trying to devalue Fed’s accomplishments because of a “weak-era”. As you seem to acknowledge, a lot of Nadal fans invoke that idea at every opportunity.
I would be more than happy to agree that we should dispense with both theses: both the Fed-fan tendency to put an asterix next to Nadal’s accomplishments, and the Rafa-fan tendency to put an asterix next to Fed’s accomplishment due to the “weak-era” hypothesis.
What do you say? It might deprive you of a bit of entertainment, but it also might be a step forward in the debate.
Joe two fans mutually agreeing cannot stop both the fanbases. And which fanbase started it first cannot be told. See this site consists of the most sane fans from both fan bases with very less trolls but I wish same could be said about other sites as well. I wish this site remains like this as there is a debate most of the time without insulting each other. Both rafans and fed fans out here are polished enough not to use unparliamentary language.
True, you can only speak for yourself. But I’ve actually been trying to find common cause with Rafa fans for quite awhile here, so even if it’s just with you on a small basis, that’s a good start as far as I’m concerned.
I don’t visit other sites, so I don’t know about them. But I’m surprised to hear that this site consists of the most sane fans.
Then I suppose you have never been to tennis.com or atp official site.
Well, of course I’ve read articles on ATP site and Tennis.com, but I don’t really follow the comment threads. I thought you were referring to some other independent site like this one. I used to be on Bleacher Report, and I guess that was a lot more incendiary than this site.
The very fact that nadal is in the GOAT discussion gives me immense pleasure as a fan. It is a pleasure for me seeing rafa compete being healthy. Even if rafa does not surpass fed in gs count I will not be unhappy but be proud to be a rafan. But yeah the greedy fan in me wants rafa to beat fed in gs count and silence his critics . Cheers everyone. Vamos Rafa
Third round predictions (1/2):
Fed over Struff in three
Coric over Harrison in five
Querrey over Grassquet in five
Anderson over Muller in five
Cilic over McDonald in three
Raonic over Kudla in three
Isner over Norrie in four
Dimitrov over Tsitsipas in four
Third round predictions (2/2):
Khachanov over Tiafoe in 4
Djoker over Edmund in 5
Kyrgios over Nishikori in 4
A. Zverev over Dzumhur in 4
Del Po over Chardy in 5
Goffin over Basilashvili in 4
Vesely over Fognini in 5
Nadal over M. Zverev in 3
I had been trying to post these along with my first and second round (which is already on daily picks page) since start of the tournament on the “Full Tournament Picks” page but they just weren’t posting on there.
Predictions for second week –
Round of 16:
Fed over Coric in 3
Querrey over Anderson in 4
Cilic over Raonic in 4
Isner over Dimitrov in 5
Djokovic over Khachanov in 4
Kyrgios over A. Zverev in 4
Del Potro over Goffin in 4
Nadal over Vesely in 5
QF:
Fed over Querrey in 4
Cilic over Isner in 4
Kyrgios over Djokovic in 5
Del Potro over Nadal in 4
SF:
Fed over Cilic in 4
Kyrgios over Del Potro in 5
Final:
Fed over Kyrgios in 4
Coric out, Dimi out, Goffin out.
I know. These were from the start of the week. Didn’t wanna be sneaky and change the picks according to what has already happened 😄