2014 French Open picks: Nadal over Djokovic

First round
Nadal over Ginepri in 3, Thiem over Mathieu in 4
Mayer over Duckworth in 4, Gabashvili over Pospisil in 4
Almagro over Sock in 3, Johnson over Lokoli in 4
Delbonis over Lajovic in 3, Haas over Zopp in 3
Dimitrov over Karlovic in 3, Haider-Maurer over Brands in 5
Klahn over Michon in 4, Anderson over Robert in 4
Giraldo over Seppi in 4, Monaco over Pouille in 3
Bolelli over Arnaboldi in 4, Ferrer over Sijsling in 3

Wawrinka over Garcia-Lopez in 4, Mannarino over Lu in 4
Young over Sela in 4, Lopez over Dzumhur in 4
Monfils over Hanescu in 4, Struff over Olivetti in 3
Bellucci over Becker in 5, Fognini over Becker in 3
Gasquet over Tomic in 3, Berlocq over Hewitt in 5
Cuevas over Ebden in 4, Verdasco over Llodra in 3
Kohlschreiber over Riba in 3, Istomin over Stakhovsky in 4
Matosevic over Brown in 4, Murray over Golubev in 3

Berdych over Polansky in 3, Nedovyesov over Devvarman in 4
Falla over Paire in 4, Bautista Agut over Lorenzi in 3
Robredo over Ward in 3, Montanes over De Schepper in 4
Kukushkin over Mahut in 4, Isner over Herbert in 4
Youzhny over Carreno Busta in 4, Stepanek over Arguello in 4
Benneteau over Bagnis in 3, Gulbis over Kubot in 4
Tursunov over Starace in 4, Volandri over Querrey in 5
Schwatzman over Elias in 5, Federer over Lacko in 3

Raonic over Kyrgios in 3, Vesely over Rosol in 5
Gonzalez over Russell in 3, Simon over Pavic in 3
Dolgopolov over Ramos in 4, Granollers over Dodig in 4
Haase over Davydenko in 5, Nishikori over Klizan in 3
Tsonga over Roger-Vasselin in 5, Melzer over Goffin in 4
Nieminen over Przysiezny in 4, Estrella Burgos over Janowicz in 5
Andujar over Cilic in 5, Kamke over Mecir in 4
Chardy over Gimeno-Traver in 5, Djokovic over Sousa in 3

Second round
Nadal over Thiem in 3
Gabashvili over Mayer over in 5
Almagro over Johnson in 4
Delbonis over Haas in 5
Dimitrov over Haider-Maurer in 3
Anderson over Klahn in 4
Giraldo over Monaco in 4
Ferrer over Bolelli in 3

Wawrinka over Mannarino in 3
Lopez over Young in 4
Monfils over Struff in 4
Fognini over Bellucci in 3
Gasquet over Berlocq in 5
Verdasco over Cuevas in 3
Kohlschreiber over Istomin in 4
Murray over Matosevic in 3

Berdych over Nedovyesov in 3
Bautista Agut over Falla in 3
Robredo over Montanes in 4
Isner over Kukushkin in 3
Youzhny over Stepanek in 5
Benneteau over Gulbis in 5
Tursunov over Volandri in 4
Federer over Schwatzman in 3

Raonic over Vesely in 3
Simon over Gonzalez in 3
Dolgopolov over Granollers in 5
Nishikori over Haase in 3
Tsonga over Melzer in 5
Nieminen over Estrella Burgos in 4
Andujar over Kamke in 4
Djokovic over Chardy in 3

Third round
Nadal over Gabashvili in3
Almagro over Delbonis in 4
Dimitrov over Anderson in 4
Ferrer over Giraldo in 3

Wawrinka over Lopez in 3
Monfils over Fognini in 5
Verdasco over Gasquet in 5
Murray over Kohlschreiber in 4

Bautista Agut over Berdych in 5
Robredo over Isner in 5
Benneteau over Youzhny in 5
Federer over Tursunov in 3

Raonic over Simon in 4
Nishikori over Dolgopolov in 4
Tsonga over Nieminen in 5
Djokovic over Andujar in 3

Fourth round
Nadal over Almagro in 3
Ferrer over Dimitrov in 4
Wawrinka over Monfils in 4
Murray over Verdasco in 4

Bautista Agut over Robredo in 4
Federer over Benneteau in 3
Nishikori over Raonic in 4
Djokovic over Tsonga in 3

Quarterfinals
Nadal over Ferrer in 4
Wawrinka over Murray in 5

Federer over Bautista Agut in 4
Djokovic over Nishikori in 3

Semifinals
Nadal over Wawrinka in 4
Djokovic over Federer in 4

Final
Nadal over Djokovic in 5

Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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59 Comments on 2014 French Open picks: Nadal over Djokovic

  1. Ricky – What made you pick Rafa over Novak when in Rome you picked Djokovic over Rafa and when just about every expert has picked Novak to win

  2. Except for bautista agut, ricky has picked all the names that are expected to make it to the qtrs and beyond…. the picks are reasonable…

    I am also going with Nadal in 5 for now…how rafa plays his matches leading to the final is also a very imp factor..

  3. Much is being said about Novak’s win in rome being a strong indicator that he finally gets the elusive RG trophy this year…

    In the first set of rome’s final, rafa easily won… the reason was that rafa was reasonably aggressive with his groundies and defended his second serve well(won more than 70% of 2nd srves). Novak cleaned up in set 2….he started making fewer errors and the most crucial aspect of his winning strategy was to go after rafa’s 2nd serve. Almost EVERY SINGLE of his 2nd serve returns in set 2 was at least as far as the middle portion between the service line and the baseline….they showed a graphic, he really improved the length on his second serve returns after set 1..

    Another thing I noticed was how flat novak started hitting the ball after losing set 1. He was not ‘drifting’ any backhands but drilling them all ! he was pummeling rafa’s backhand and also going after rafa’s forehand with deep penetrative shots. He was commanding lots of points and trying to keep rallies shorter. Novak also hit pretty flat shots for a good part of Montecarlo 2013 final in which his avg net clearance on strokes was in the 50-60 cm range. He alter’s the penetration on his groundies against rafa and did that as much as ever during that ‘phase ‘ in the rome final’s second set and the beginning of third..djo’s CC forehand is ,however, a heavy shot aimed at drawing short balls from rafa’s backhand.

    Rafa did fight back in the third but did not have enough energy to sustain the fight. .. rafa had 3 winners to novak’s 18 winners in set 2 ! have never seen such disparity in their matches..rafa was just not able to find the power to hit through novak… the result obviously implies novak is ready to beat rafa on clay, but hey , its not that simple ! …

    enough said of djo’s game.. sharing my thoughts on rafa’s game in the next post…

  4. its true that novak is able to dictate points against rafa like noone has ever done. Neutralizing shots against others are a liability against novak. Aggressive shots good enough to win points against others are just good enough to draw attack-able balls against novak..

    First of all, Rafa needs to do more with his backhand. It’s not like fed’s backhand against rafa in that the shot is completely helpless..rafa’s backhand is a very capable shot ! for some reason, his backhand becomes passive against novak and novak makes it appear more passive too… Rafa’s backhand in the rome final’s second and third set was such a non-factor ! I am ,however, confident it will not be the case at RG. Rafa’s CC backhand is ALWAYS firing at RG ! he comes out with his backhand firing at RG, esp the imp matches. He shows much more urgency in the slam matches .

    Its very easy to say that novak was so good that rafa was just helpless. I disagree. Novak’s strategy relies on the length of rafa’s shots. There were so many CC forehands that rafa was landing short and novak was drilling them. THe impression given is that it was not rafa’s fault but novak being too good. The truth is that rafa on clay needs ONE good shot to become the aggressor ! One deep CC forehand or a CC backhand and rafa steps up the court. Novak was standing inside the baseline and controlling the court , Kudos to him but rafa was ALLOWING him to do that ! With rafa, it can be deceptive..he can make his opponents look better than they actually were..and rafa KNOWS this….did you guys see how relaxed he was in the ceremony and in the press? how positive his interviews have been after that loss?

    Rafa was drained in rome. He was spent..would have been enough against anyone but not novak. We will see a much more aggressive rafa at RG. Remember, RAFA HIT MORE WINNERS in the last year than novak ! He just steps up the aggression and novak is forced behind his baseline ! Another thing is that novak’s ‘go for broke’ strategy is workable in 3 set matches but not 5-set matches and both rafa and novak know that ! he can only have a ‘phase’ during a best of five and rafa can always wrestle the momentum back. There is a reason rafa has always raced in the lead in the beginning of all their matches at RG but has fallen behind in many of their best of three matches. The difference in mindsets ! Remember that ‘phase’ in the USO 13 final ? When novak dominated set 2 and was up a break in set 3 and many said its over now. But, because it was best of five, rafa was slowly able to get the momentum back !

  5. ** another example is MC 2013 when novak was crushing rafa in the first set and commentators were saying novak is playing flawless and there is nothing rafa can do bla bla.. even a subpar rafa was able to stop that momentum BECAUSE he started playing better in set 2… rafa would have done much better had he been full of energy in rome…

    Novak’s biggest weapon against rafa is the ROS. Rafa has to serve well… but not much is going to change as far as this dynamic is concerned so rafa will have to boss the baseline rallies. The bigger philippe chatrier court also lends support to rafa.. He will be ready…. Rafa’s forehand was unable to have its say in rome but just wait and see how much damage it does at RG. Rafa changed the composition of his racket after 2011 because he thought that he was not hitting enough winners… so rafa knows what to do…. The tide will turn in rafa’s favor. He is mentally very much back in the business and physically good too. He will conquer RG….VAMOS

  6. I think Ricky picked Rafa to beat Novak in the final because he understands that RG is not Rome! However, I will leave it to Ricky to answer Sanju’s question if he so chooses.

    A few thoughts on Ricky’s picks. He does think that Almagro will meet Rafa in the fourth round. I have my doubts about that, but still thinks that Rafa will beat him easily. Another pick that caught my eye is RBA over Berdy. I think that’s reasonable. Berdy has not been consistent this clay season and RBA has been having a breakout year. I am not positive that RBA will make to the quarterfinals here to face Fed. It could happen, but I am not that sure. I also wonder if Dimitrov can get past Ferrer. I guess it’s not likely at RG.

    I don’t know about Nishi getting to the quarterfinals to face Novak. My question is how he will bounce back after this latest injury. We all know that he’s been playing exceptional tennis this year and has been outstanding on clay. But playing in a slam in best three out of five sets matches for a guy just coming back from injury who can’t seem to stay healthy, is a tough task. I am not saying it won’t happen, but I would like to see how he looks in his first few matches. If for some reason, Nishi can’t get it done, then I won’t be shocked to see Raonic make it.

    Overall though, I do think Ricky’s picks are reasonable. He went with the seeds holding in Rafa and Stan’s part of the draw. He’s also going with the top four reaching the semis. So no shock upset predictions.

    Needless to say, I like his prediction for the final. I think that Rafa got a sense of where his game is at against Novak in the Rome final. So he knows what needs to be done to be ready for him at RG. I hope that Rafa doesn’t have to wear himself out in the early going so that he will be ready for the second week. I think he’s going to have to really get his serve going in this tournament. I also hope that Rafa will have the answers for some of the tactics that Novak was using in the Rome final.

    I do think that how Rafa looks in his matches leading up to the final will be very important.

  7. vamosrafa,

    You have addressed some of the concerns and thoughts that I had regarding the difference between a Masters tournament final and a RG final. Reading some of the chatter online, it seems that many are thinking that Novak’s victory in Rome was somehow definitive as to the outcome of a possible final between him and Rafa at RG. Nothing could be further from the truth, as far as I am concerned. You mentioned a few key points regarding how Novak can play in a best two out of three set match, as opposed to a best three out of five set match. It’s a whole different thing in a slam. He won’t be able to have such an easy time of it, because Rafa can wrestle the momentum away from him. He has more time.

    I hope you are correct as to why Rafa seemed to take the loss in the Rome final so well. I think he realized that his legs just weren’t there and the energy that he needs to beat Novak in a best two out of three set match, was not there on that day. But I do believe that Rafa got something out of that loss. Many times you learn more from your losses than your victories. Rafa has a brilliant tennis brain and is a superb tactician on the court. So I tend to agree with you overall that Rafa will be ready if he meets Novak in the final at RG.

    • yup..rafa’s tennis brain is big factor. Btw, I forgot the statistics, but rafa’s break point saving rate is also exceptionally good at RG. He is a different animal at RG.

  8. Well, well, colour me surprised. Would’ve bet a second mortgage on the Rickster picking Djokovic.

    I’m also betting against the house, Rafa for el noveno! Couldn’t care less how many sets he does it in or who he beats to get it………..

    Vamos!

    @ed251137, if you come across this: Bein Sport TV is showing RG live here in Tunis and I have that, with Arabic commentary though. The reason I am looking for a livestream is to get English commentary, hopefully. Thanks.

  9. RT @NeilHarmanTimes: “The bottom half of men play tomorrow, plus @RafaelNadal, @stanwawrinka @fabiofogna. No @andy_murray until Tuesday”

  10. RT @andy_murray: “Start of @rolandgarros today.. hope everyone enjoys the next couple of weeks tennis on the dirt”

    Enjoy it too, Muzza! Sure looking forward to the next couple of weeks……….

  11. Awww, Pico! Do your dancing on the court, Vamos!!

    RT @picomonaco: “Sun is shining, the weather is sweet now
    Make you wanna move your dancing feet, yeah #RG14”

    #Happy

  12. RT ‏@RD_Tennistalk (5 hours ago): “according to the FO draw, Wawrinka’s first name is now officially “Stan”?????”
    (RD = Ricky Dimon)

    Ricky doesn’t read The Grandstand!

  13. When I watched tennis on BEIN Sport, I was able to change the language from Arabic to English. Can’t remember how I did it but try various buttons on your remote or ask your TV satellite provider how to do it.

  14. I dont know where all the weather doom and gloom is coming from. I am checking on two sites which both show rain (thunderstorms) for tomorrow pm but after that sunny with cloud and the possibility of showers until Thursday. After that the prospect is for good weather up until the final.

    http://europe.meteoconsult.co.uk/weather/roland-garros/france/weather_forecast_roland-garros_france_destination_42_1.php

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/kprppcs

    Weather forecasting even for 24hrs ahead is not dependable at the best of times let alone 10-15 days in advance. But the prospect of rain is not as bad as made out by several commentators over the past few days.

    Just be glad I’m not watching Rafa at Roland Garros this year – that would guarantee it rained for his matches!!!

  15. Question for Ricky: You picked Nadal to start with but after the draw changed and picked Djokovic. What made you change your mind? Was it when he lost in Rome?

  16. RT @NeilHarmanTimes : “I really do not like Raonic shouting ‘towel’ aggressively at ball kids every time he plays a bad point. Could do it with more decorum.”

    One for the @hawkeye School of Manners to groom……….

    #OhCanada

    • We can only hope. They have a young team that Beckham has already said stands no chance. England’s first match is against Italy……….a tall order.

  17. RT @scambers73: “Great effort by Mikhail Youzhny to come back from two sets down to beat Pablo Carrena Busta and take his place in round two at French Open”

    Just shows that the 5 set format is brutal on young guns. PCB was up 2 sets on Youzhny but could not go the distance, and he is no slouch on the dirt………

  18. I am not much of a fashionista but I think Radwanska’s dress is fun and bright (it’s Spring after all) and Serena’s awful. Telling that the fashionistas on Twitter dislike Aga’s dress.
    Why can’t Nike stick with the conventional? The skirt part of Serena’s dress is ridiculous, pointy nonsense.

    • Exactly, why not put a pointy hat on her to complete the look? Maybe that is the point, to draw more attention to her derriere………….why, I don’t know.

  19. @Sanju

    I’ve only just spotted you had already asked Ricky the question about his change of heart and now predicts Rafa over Djokovic again.

    I posed exactly the same question

    I note he is keeping silent 🙂

    • Come the final day he may well pick Djokovic over Rafa like he did in ROME. He picked Rafa at the start then changed to Novak

      I understand one can change predictions based on how one plays through the course of tourney

  20. Juan José Vallejo ‏@juanjosetennis · 41s
    There’s no point disguising it: this is a slap in the face. Defending champions start on the main court, be it Casablanca, or Wimbleon.

    Juan José Vallejo ‏@juanjosetennis · 2m
    Did the French Tennis Federation forget who won last year’s men’s title at their own huge event?

  21. In that vein, Federer says despite all the whispers about Rafael Nadal’s vulnerability coming into Paris, the eight-time champion is still the favorite to win the title.

    “I think he’s back on where he wants to be,” Federer said. “He’s played his matches he needs to play. He’s even won one of the Masters 1000 at home in Madrid for him. So I think he probably is where he wants to be, in my opinion.”

    As for Novak Djokovic being tapped as the favorite?

    “Not for me, but maybe for you,” Federer said. “And three weeks ago he couldn’t play tennis anymore, I remember that too. When he was injured, oh, my God, you know. Things are looking so terrible. Now everything is great. […] It doesn’t go week by week. I don’t know who’s talking all the time, but Rafa is the favorite, and then Novak, and then the rest, you know. It’s very clear.

    “But it doesn’t matter who is the favorite or not. We will see in a few weeks. Really doesn’t matter one bit.”

  22. A sporting gesture would’ve been if Federer had declined and told them the honour belonged to Rafa. I’m surprised Jean Gachassin condoned the decision by the RG bunch of YKWs.

  23. Good on Fed for voicing what so many people were thinking. He’s always been somewhat sceptical about Djokovic’s health and injury problems and doesn’t mince his words.

  24. ^^^ Federer said. “And three weeks ago he couldn’t play tennis anymore, I remember that too. When he was injured, oh, my God, you know. Things are looking so terrible. Now everything is great.

  25. I could only say “Thanks Maestro” for voicing what other people/players/media are afraid to admit…Nole was “”Ă–h my God so injured and could not play tennis” only three weeks ago and now he is the favorite to win RG…pathetic…obviously someone is being fooled here…the drama queen is back…

  26. Heh…now ESPN’s Garber and Wilansky are back-pedaling on picking Nole to win. Garber saying you should never pick against the king.

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