French Open expert picks conclude with Sunday’s final between Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem. Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray of The Grandstand plus Pete Ziebron of Tennis Acumen make their predictions.
(4) Dominic Thiem vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
Ricky: Nadal will almost certainly win this one…again…just as he did at Thiem’s expense in the 2018 final. He has been absolutely cruising throughout the tournament, whereas Thiem will be playing a match on a fourth straight day and is coming off a wild five-setter against Novak Djokovic. Nadal is also 3-0 lifetime in this head-to-head matchup at Roland Garros and 9-0 in total sets, with set scores of 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4, 6-0, 6-4, 6-3, and 6-2. But could this be at least somewhat competitive? Maybe, because Thiem now has at least some slam final experience (albeit not good!) and he will take confidence from his recent Barcelona scalp of Nadal (albeit under much different circumstances!). Nadal in 4: 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.
Cheryl: Thiem can beat Nadal on clay. He has done it once a year since 2016, and this year is already no exception. The Austrian knocked Nadal out of his home tournament in his eponymous stadium in Barcelona. But that was Barcelona. That was a different Nadal. This Nadal, the one Thiem will be playing on Sunday, is the one we all know and other players fear. Just ask Federer, who took a beating in the semis. Thiem is the second-best clay-court player in the world right now…but he’s playing the one guy who’s better than he is. Nadal is still too good in Paris. I can’t see this going any other way than a 12th title for the King of Clay. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4.
Pete: On a positive note for the Thiem, he has defeated Nadal on clay in each of the last four years–including a few weeks ago in Barcelona en route to the title. However, in this–the third consecutive meeting at Roland Garros with Nadal–Thiem will have little chance of winning the title. That is primarily due to the fact that his tongue is on the ground after eliminating Djokovic in a match that spanned two days. Nadal put a quick end to a valiant run by Federer in his march to the semis and will look forward to properly extinguishing the challenges that Thiem will bring in their third meeting in the last five majors. It will be full flight from Nadal in the final from first ball to once again lifting La Coupe des Mousquetaires for La Decima Plus Two. Nadal in 3: 6-2, 7-5, 6-4.
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GOAT FTW.
#BEL18VE
Thiem is at a serious disadvantage in this match, having to play less than 24 hours after his 5 setter SF, while Nadal will be well rested. At least he’s 25 years old. It’s very hard for me to see Thiem winning this match, and if Nadal plays as he did in the SF I think there is virtually no chance. He has beaten Rafa on clay a few times now, however, so I’ll give him a set. Nadal in 4.
Yeah agree… Rafa was playing sub par until the semi. Though he won against federer in which Federer’s hammer backhand was severely compromised by the wind, a well rested Thiem would have been a whole different proposition for Rafa on chatrier in the final on a best of five. Though Thiem’s backhand can breakdown at times by the Rafa forehand which is not a weapon it once was, Rafa would have had to play at his 2008 roger bagelling level to win.. but as roger said all is not lost. Rafa may fall sick.. the possibilities are endless.
At first I thought there must be some unusually subtle sarcasm in your comment, vmk, but on a second read I think you are actually agreeing with me! But it’s possible that the sarcasm is too nuanced for me to detect it.
It’s just sarcasm in vmk style. He had a knack n good talent to indulge in sarcasm n we have to admire the talent…it makes for a hilarious read..atleast to me 🙂
Has *
Rafa in 3 uncompetitive sets, 12th RG definitely.
On paper, it seems tennis gods have again chosen Thiem as a sacrificing goat to the clay GOAT to carry out annual ritual for Nadal.
But the questions are:
Can Thiem revolt against the historical wishes of tennis gods against all odds? Can tennis gods again send hurricane wind to again stop someone who can genuinely beat the dearest of them? Can ‘twister wind’ again massively diminish and hamper the important capabilities of someone – just like Federer in Semifinals – who can genuinely beat the special of Tennis gods on gods’ favorite land surface? Can Thiem recover the physical abuse he had to suffer due to Organizers’ mismanagement and Djokovic’s selfish attitude of not to continue on Friday? Can Thiem take inspiration from Wawrinka and recognize the importance of “Ever tried ever failed no matter Try again fail again Fail better”?
BUT THE BIG QUESTION: CAN THIEM JUST BRING THE 70% CALY PEAK OF 2015 WAWRINKA? IF THE ANSWER OF THIS BIG QUESTION IS YES, THEN THIEM SHOULD WIN THIS FRENCH OPEN 2019 FINAL AGAINST CLAY GOAT IN 4 GLORIOUS SETS.
Amy…nerves ? Just worried delpo of 2009 uso does not get inside thiem where he beat no 1 n 2 back to back (:-
Also the fed curse..anyone who beats fed on the way before final rarely wins the title..very stray exceptions like 2016 ao for djoko..
And 2014 USO by Cilic!
Come on, why are you so superstitious?
Oh yeah forgot cilic…not superstitious..just want rafa to win 🙂
Yes I am nervous sanju! But I don’t really believe in coincidences being actual auguries for how a tournament is going to play out. I worry more about injuries happening -Rafa got cramp in his hand last year at the end of the third set and couldn’t hold his racquet! That’s the kind of thing which gives me nightmares.
I do like Thiem but I definitely don’t go along with the line that some have taken that they would be ok with Rafa losing to him because he’s a nice guy. I won’t be happy if rafa loses and I won’t be happy for Dom in the slightest! He can win Rg when rafa retires!!
I see you and a lot of other people have brought up wimby last year – that’s the last time rafa had a realistic chance of winning a slam and the loss of that combined with the bizarre circumstances of roofgate which many of you have mentioned makes me want him to win now even more than usual.
Well, I said before the SFs that I feared Rafa facing Thiem in the final. But, after watching both SFs, I think Rafa will win the final even if the final is on Monday and Thiem has sufficient rest.
From both SFs, I can see that:
1) Rafa was playing at an exceptionally high level in the wind.
2) I was surprised that Thiem, with heavy topspin groundstrokes and some hardest hitting among the players, was quite poor playing in the wind. He could be like a Rafa, using his topspin when with the wind and hitting hard when against the wind. Thiem didn’t seem to understand that, and instead opted for his CC sliced BHs which were more difficult to control in windy conditions; that shown he’s not very experienced playing in windy conditions.
3) Thiem took four over hours to beat a subpar Djoko, I doubt he would have it any easier dealing with Rafa.
4) Rafa has now shown that he’s playing at a high level and with very good court craft, no longer that player we saw at Barcelona; and, Thiem seems not able to reproduce that Barcelona magic in this FO. Rafa is now hitting with depth and so he will be able to apply his usual formula against righty SHBH players on the clay court.
If Rafa comes out all guns blazing, like his 2017 and 2018 finals, he should win it in straight sets; if not then he will win in four sets.
The weather forecast has periods of showers but it looks to be clear most of the day, especially in the early to late afternoon.
If Thiem takes the ball as late as did against Novak, then he cannot win. He allowed Novak in and win even those points which he dominated. This won’t work against Nadal … http://www.138mph.com/dominic-thiem-must-take-the-ball-early-against-rafael-nadal-at-roland-garros/
I hope Thiem takes the first set, otherwise it will likely be over in 3.
Nadal to win 7-5 6-3 6-2
In his presser before the SF match with Nole Thiem states it’s easier for him to play Rafa than Novak with his flatter shots! So Thiem has confidence entering the finals! I don’t buy this argument of a 25 year old being tired vs a 33 year old! He may be emotionally more spent but physically – no way! He can not be wasted with all the interruptions and rest in between.
I see this to be a close match with a lot depending on Rafa’s attitude! I hope he does not show to much respect to Thiem for beating Nole in such fine matter stealing the win when all looked to be in Nole’s favor.
Rafa needs to be focused and serving well! Thim will do damage with his own weapons but hope Rafa counterattacks and hits winners as he did against Fed!
Vamos Champ!
Well, the flatter shots thing may be true in normal circumstances but not when in windy conditions. Thiem needed five sets to beat Djoko, who’s playing some of his worse tennis in the wind; he’s not going to get any better facing Rafa in the wind.
It’s laughable if Thiem thinks that facing Rafa on clay is easier than facing Djoko, because Rafa’s topspin FH to his SHBH is the killing shot, if not Thiem won’t be 4-7 vs Rafa on clay; compared to 3-3 vs Djoko on clay!
Djoko’s flatter shots work better on grass and HCs, I think Thiem was referring to meeting Djoko on non clay surfaces where Djoko is 4-0 vs Thiem.
Forecast is for very little wind, so that shouldn’t be a factor. Should make for a higher quality match, though.
Keep calm, stay focused, remain confident, be strong and show your fighting spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8m-W6LW4AA2P2z.jpg
I think if it’s not too windy out there, Thiem will S&V and drop shot more, seeing Rafa’s deep court position behind the baseline. He couldn’t S&V in the SF as its too windy for his serve to work well.
Rafa by now should’ve learned from their recent Barcelona encounter, so he should be prepared for Thiem’s moving forward to the net. I feel Rafa should perhaps return some of Thiem’s serves DTL instead of going CC all the time, so predictable that Thiem would be there at the net ready to intercept the returns.
Rafa of course has to serve well too just like in the SF. I hope Rafa is not too nervous (he said he’s always nervous at the beginning of a match, more so when it’s a slam final).
Thiem said a couple of weeks ago:
It’s still something different to play him in Roland Garros, on Philippe Chatrier [Court] in best-of-five, than in any other tournament best-of-three.
That’s one big step. Of course, I will try everything to win that tournament and maybe beat him there, but it’s very tough. I was pretty far from that until now but it’s time to improve. But also I’m a better player than last year so that’s what I’m counting on the most”
The guy has played Rafa at RG multiple times and understands the challenge. Beating Rafa in a best of 3 is way different for several reasons.
Did not see your pred VR yet and analysis 🙂
The problem with Thiem is that I just don’t think he’s clutch enough to win this match if he could even get himself in a position to win it. Yesterday he gave up way too many free points against Djokovic and looked really nervous when he had to serve it out. Fortunately Djoko was rubbish with all the net approaches and didn’t deal with the wind well.
I’m gonna have to say Rafa in 3, but I hope Thiem can at least steal one set to make it a bit more interesting.
Vamos Rafa!
im heading into the trenches (ie Chatrier). good luck to Rafans.
Big Day for Rafa and Rafa fans 😀
One can’t ever be 100% certain but I’m not expecting much from Thiem. Rafa’s got this huge historic deal in 3.
Vamos Clay Tennis!
Then on to grass…me brackets are done.I been damning myself all week for missing FO bracket. Had a friend here who had me sidetracked. Now it’s Little important tune ups and title opportunities in stuttgart, Nottingham, Hertogenbosch. Go grass!
I think the 3 experts are, as usual, right on the mark….Rafa in 3….maybe 4 if Thiem plays amazing.
Phew! I am always nervous during Rafa’s first service game.
Vamos Rafa!
Don’t worry Rafa playing too well to lose over 5 sets.
Thiem is playing well, but having lost the 1st set, he’ll be more nervous now.
1 of 3.
Great job nadal you fucking idiot, Thanks for fucking up my -1.5 sets handicap
Best of three sets from now on
I completely dont get Nadal game. No threat to thiem service at all in the second set, and then he breaks first thiem service..
Rafa is amazing!
Vamos Rafa!