World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Goffin

Rafael Nadal and David Goffin will be facing each other for the third time in their careers when they wrap up the first two days of round-robin competition at the World Tour Finals on Monday night. Nadal has won both of their previous meetings; 6-3, 6-1 in this season’s Monte-Carlo semifinals and 7-6(3), 6-2 in the Madrid quarters.

For exactly two reasons, Goffin may have a better a chance in this one. First, it is on an indoor hard court instead of on clay. Second, Nadal is likely less than 100 percent due to a knee injury.

That being said, Goffin has dealt with physical problems of his own throughout the second half of 2017. The eighth-ranked Belgian suffered an ankle injury in the third round of the French Open, missed the grass-court swing, and did not post another strong result until reaching round four of the U.S. Open–where a knee issue hobbled him during a straight-set loss to Andrey Rublev. Goffin, though, is an impressive 17-5 this fall with back-to-back titles in Shenzhen and Tokyo.

Few players have a better record this season than Goffin (54-22), but Nadal’s 67-10 mark has helped him clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking heading into London. The Spaniard took all suspense out of that equation when he beat Hyeon Chung in his first match at the Paris Masters. Nadal held off Pablo Cuevas in three sets one day later but then withdrew with his knee problem prior to a scheduled quarterfinal contest against Filip Krajinovic.

With more than a week off before getting things started at the O2 Arena, Nadal is reportedly good to go.

“I hope (I am ready),” Nadal said in between practice sessions in London. “And if I didn’t believe I can be ready, I wouldn’t be here. I’m working every day, practicing well and just trying to be ready for the action…. Being here is an important thing, but for me the most important thing is everything that happened to me this year, the tournaments, competing almost every week with a very competitive level of tennis; being healthy until Paris.”

Goffin is here for the second time after playing one match as a World Tour Finals alternate in 2016, when he replaced Gael Monfils and got blown out by Novak Djokovic 6-1, 6-2. The underdog will be much more competitive on Monday, but another loss is forthcoming if Nadal is close to 100 percent.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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53 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Goffin

  1. Goffin breaks again and will serve for the first set. To my eye, Nadal’s serve speed has declined since start of the match. He is shanking a lot of balls and doesn’t look comfortable. Part of that is that Goffin has played quite well; he is dominating the baseline rallies. Let’s see if he has the nerve to serve it out.

  2. I don’t know who deserved to win that set less. I guess it was Nadal because he really played poorly. But how many chances did Goffin blow? Maybe he’ll be able to calm down now.

  3. I’m becoming more and more irritated listening to my least favourite commentator eulogising over Goffin.
    Time for Rafa to pull his socks up!

    • I can’t really tell if his knee is affecting him. He seems to be moving well, but his serve speed is down. He certainly is making more errors than usual.

    • Yeah, and Rafa is so stingy in hitting his FHDTL or his aggressive BH, he maybe wants to keep them safely inside the tool box and not wanting to use them.

      He’s hitting too short and allowing Goffin to step in to take the ball early, his game is not working well today.

  4. Can’t say I’m surprised at this. Nadal isn’t currently fit enough to compete at his best here. Goffin taking advantage. About to serve out the win.

    • After seeing this match so far, I hope he doesn’t. He’s not obviously injured, and I was surprised to see he’s not even taping his knee. He’s not played well overall, but I think he should keep going.

          • Yes, well, I thought he shouldn’t play as well, because I thought ‘why play unless you can win?’ But if he’s here to gain points and participate, there’s nothing wrong with that.

  5. 7 DFs from Goffin, most of them at crucial moments. Amazing that Nadal will probably win this set, but also testament to his incredible will to win and never say die attitude.

  6. Vamos Rafa! One set apiece.

    Why Rafa is so stingy; why can’t he play like that last service game before the TB more often? Why save such play until he’s facing MPs? Don’t understand his logic.

    • He seems to be playing very nervous or the knee is probably boring him there. To be honest, Goffin should have closed the match, glad that with his resilience Rafa found a way to capture the set, despite playing poorly. I hope he can win this now.
      Vamos Rafa 💪💪💪

    • Could say the same about Goffin: why, when he has an advantage (including match points!) does he play so tenatively? Why does he double fault at such crucial moments? Nadal has definitely not been the better player so far but he has been far more clutch.

  7. What a fighting spirit, a brave heart, unbelievable Nadal! He is obviously playing with pain but still fighting! He brings tears in my eyes! What a champion he is!

    Rafa you truly are the best!

  8. Anyone who thinks he will pull out after one round (unless he is injured) does not understand Rafa’s nature. True he is tired and jaded but there’s no way he would’ve taken to the court if he didn’t intend to fight till the end. Besides the RR format – not to mention the complicated scoring system – makes it impossible to predict who will make it to the final in advance.

      • I agree he would pull out if the knee is getting worse but that is different from a premeditated decision to only enter for one round.

        • Looks like he will pull out. I guess he’s testing his knee in this first match, but it’s obvious he couldn’t serve well, and the serve is crucial playing on this court. The way he waved to the fans while leaving the court, it’s like waving them goodbye. I think he’ll make his announcement soon.

  9. Rafa is obviously playing with pain! His painful grimacing, the commentator kept pointing out and they showed replay of his uncomfortable movements! Are we watching the same match?? The commentators said that even Toni Nadal said Rafa should not play at the WTF!
    Rafa’s movement is hampered, he doesn’t put strength in his shots, trying to shorten the points! Rafa is a fighter but I think he shouldn’t have played at all..,
    The commentator just said: Nadal even though playing on one leg managed to break Goffin again”.,,

    • Nadal grimaces all the time on the court. And his movement has been terrific in this match, though less so in the 2nd set. The only objective evidence I can see, apart from generally poor play, is a reduced serve velocity.

      • Sorry, I meant his movement hasn’t been quite as good in the 3rd set.

        I agree, prior to the match, that he shouldn’t have played, based on his recent form and the apparent injury to his knee. But if it’s still injured, why isn’t it taped?

    • Stanley:
      Stop crowing. Nobody is making excuses. Rafa’s compromised movement was there for all to see. And Goffin overcame his own knee problem to battle his way through to the win.

      But the match was riddled with UEs and not a prettty sight to watch..

      It’s not for nothing it is named the W**t T** F**k tournament

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