World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ferrer

Ferrer shortsA completely meaningless match in terms of future bearing on the tournament will take place when fellow Spaniards Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer collide at the World Tour Finals on Friday. Nadal has already clinched the group, while Ferrer is out.

Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer will be facing each other for the 30th time in their careers when they wrap up their round-robin campaigns at the World Tour Finals on Friday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 23-6, but it stands at a far more competitive 5-4 in Nadal’s favor on hard courts. The two Spaniards most recently squared off in their only meeting of 2015 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo, where Nadal survived a quarterfinal test 6-4, 5-7, 6-2.

Fast forward seven months and this is a strikingly different world No. 5. So far this fall, Nadal has finished runner-up in Beijing and Basel, made a run to the Shanghai semifinals, and reached the quarters in Paris. At none of those four events, however, did he perform better than he has through two London matches. Nadal cruised past Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-2 then erased Andy Murray 6-4, 6-1.

This is the first time since Rome in 2013 that the 14-time major champion has defeated two top-four players in the same tournament.
Rafa5
Ferrer also stormed into the O2 with plenty of momentum, having captured recent titles in Kuala Lumpur and Vienna. But once again a steep step up in competition has proven to be too much for Ferrer to handle. The seventh-ranked Spaniard lost his opener to Murray 6-4, 6-4 before blowing a 5-2 first-set lead against Wawrinka and falling 7-5, 6-2.

Ferrer’s baseline game has been solid this week, but his serve has given him no chance so succeed against the best players in the world. In two outings, the 33-year-old has combined for zero aces and 11 double-faults (eight against Murray, three against Wawrinka).

A proverbial “dead” match is not a particularly enthralling proposition for the fans, but if you could pick two players to contest such a match, Nadal and Ferrer would be the two. Their effort levels can never be questioned regardless of circumstances. Unfortunately for Ferrer, Nadal’s best effort vs. his own best effort is a significant mismatch right now.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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93 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ferrer

  1. Anyways good job Rafa in grabbing 600 points, beating world No 2 & 4 and firmly placing yourself 5th seed for AO and ending year at No 5. He was almost No 9 or 10 during the year.

    He has also almost gobbled 1740 points since USO and I think that’s great in weakest part of season for him. Only 2013 was better with 2220 points I think. He did not play much post USO in 2008 & 2010..his other great years.

    • I think Rafa’s heart was never really in the post USO season that’s probably why he didn’t do well because his YE ranking was usually confirmed after the USO. This year he doesn’t have that luxury so he is doing well.

    • Ranking points Rafa earned after the USO in 2007 – 2014 (without Davis Cup):
      2014 — 190
      2013 — 2020 – the best result
      2012 — didn’t play
      2011 — 590
      2010 — 1680
      2009 — 1140
      2008 — 180*
      2007 — 1200*
      *The points earned before 2009 are recalculated according to the current ATP Point table.

  2. nativenewyorker7 says:
    November 20, 2015 at 5:18 pm
    Yes, the point is that Rafa will not have a day off now. All this week they have had a day off after each match. But Rafa played last while Novak is resting.
    ********************
    That’s one of the questions I have tweeted to SKY to ask Chris Kermode – why some players finish a match in the early hours of the morning then play against an opponent who had a whole day’s rest a few hours later. I hope they chose it.

  3. So what do you people think will be score tomm? Novak in 2 or 3? games? I doubt anyone here expects Rafa to win tomm or does anyone?

    • If Rafa didn’t waste so much energy fighting for a pointless win he could of had a shot. He used too much energy plus he prrob has a number of minor injuries. No way he is winning. I really want Rafa to win because I. Don’t like nole but too bad can’t see a 65% nadal beat the big boss

    • If its a 3 setter..I think we should be happy. Indoor is Novaks forte..not Rafas..Novak is playing at a great level this year compared to Rafa..

      If its a 3 setter..I am sure Rafa himself will be happy. He lost all 3 matches to Novak in straights this year.

      • a 3-setter would actually be really good news!

        He lost 6-2 6-2 in Beijing but showed some good signs in that defeat. I believe Novak was playing a bit sharper Beijing and rafa is now playing with a lot more confidence.

        Having the right patterns for the serve is key. Novak blasted away body serve returns in Beijing so rafa and Toni better decide the patterns.

  4. Naaaa take it easy guys….he won’t be jaded for tomorrow’s match! When you are feeling positive, happy and there’s huge Adrenalin rush, you can manage. It was 2 hrs 37 mins and he won.

    Novak won’t have it easy tomorrow! Probably rafa is not quite ready enough to take novak down on rafa’s least fav surface but the way he has been progressing, he is exceeding expectations all the time! Phenomenal progress. I picked him to win his group 3-0 and it is going as per the plan. I also picked Fed to beat Novak so I knew rafa-novak was a big possibility in the SF. He have it now. I am really happy about rafa’s determined efforts to make his way up to the baseline as much as he can. This is something he has done really really well in all three matches.

    I hope he can have a lucky serving day tomorrow and is able to hit the forehand with enough penetration to break djokovic’s defense on enough occasions.

    Just do your best, rafa. You have already accomplished your goals here so just relax and give it your all!

    IF he wins, I would rate this as the best three-set win of his career.

    • One thing I notice: Rafa was thinking clearly out there and changing tactics to deal with Ferrer’s aggression, a sign that he’s finally calm during match, no pannicking.

    • vr he did show nerves!! he started off brilliantly, mainlining the ball and whipping his forehand. he had 2 breaks and was up 3-0…then he lost his serve against the run of play and started to be more tentative and dropping balls short which ferrer hit everywhere for winners…so he withdrew into himself and stopped taking on the ball. he did get a break to serve for the match and had set point but it was no great surprise that ferrer broke back. then he played a very nervy horrible tie-break. early in the second set he was playing pretty horribly with more short balls….either hitting short or long but then he managed to get hold of himself and started to play well again..constructing the points well…ferrer was running like a maniac and getting everything back. so yes it was great to see him adjust and manage to turn the match around and get hold of himself, but he did show nerves and vulnerability beforehand…

      • thanks a lot Amy!

        I watched some highlights….. yeah, rafa made a really good start. Returning well, hitting aggressively but then it changed. Ferrer started hitting his forehand much better and rafa played a bad game at 3-2. The T.B was also nasty. He improved a lot in set 2 and developed some really good patters. Notice how he is able to set up more forehands after serve now. More confident with that shot.

        He definitely would need to be more aggressive with his inside out forehand. More penetration AND closer to the sideline (something he has not done consistently well). Novak will track those down and send heavy balls to rafa’s backhand and then the advantage is lost most of the times.

        Smart serving patterns, more aggression with the forehand (both in terms of power and placement) will be needed in abundance tomorrow.

  5. Any match highlights ? anyone? I wanna see and assess myself.

    @NNY, if you are reading, what’s your overall assessment on today’s match?

    and Ricky?

    I know Luckystar is not impressed.

    • Listen up people, do you hear there?

      ratcliff and danica have both had very nice respectful and objective kind words about Rafa.

      Blind loyalty that nadline has asked for in her own words is selective memory.

      And it makes me wonder.

      • Rafa fans also spoke well of Djoko till he started beating Rafa too many times. Djoko fans did not speak well of Rafa in 2013 or 2014 and suspected ATP of favoring him. Now many of them can be very condescendingly kind about Rafa because he has been no threat this year. Even then several of them have repeated the doping accusations, claimed his poor form is due to introduction of bio passport, claimed he is gay etc.
        The so called objective fans have selective vision, pretending not to see inconvenient things and act superior speaking contemptuously of Rafa fans’ blind loyalty. Well no one is more blind than these “objective”fans as none so blind as those who refuse to see.

  6. all his life Rafa praised Fed and he still does…Uncle T. does the same and they are the ones claiming Fed is the best player ever…I do not think anyone here wanted to make an issue about it nor did we constantly bring it up…

    so now when Rafa praises Novak (which Novak certainly deserves no doubt about it) and Uncle T. does it as well, what are we supposed to do? We acknowledge it and focus on Rafa…there is no reason to be confrontational about it…to be honest, I was very interested in Rafa’s assessment of his level and his prospects for tomorrow…him praising Novak is something we already know and seems so irrelevant at this point…

    and if someone wants to evaluate Novak’s game and his perfect records, and praise him of course, I think it is fair to Nole’s fans who visit this site to put it on the Novak’s page or the thread related to Novak’s matches…Novak’s fans are not too much interested in reading our assessments of Rafa’s game and Rafa’s health condition…they rather visit Novak’s page and enjoy the info there…so, in a nutshell, nobody here is arguing about Novak’s brilliance…but it deserve to be elaborated (unless related to the particular match with Rafa, the situation we will have tomorrow!) in the place where it belongs: either the Novak’s thread or his fan page…

    • natashao, you are confusing stuff here. It is not possible to discuss tennis on rafa without discussing the game’s of his rivals! I don’t know what the issue here is :S If you want to talk about rafa’s personal life, only then it is possible to talk about rafa and rafa and only rafa. When I or some other fans analyze why rafa lost , we HAVE to discuss what rafa did not do well and what his opponent did too well (so that we can discuss what rafa can do to counter that).

      And nobody here is talking about novak on rafa’s page! In a tournament preview, for e.g, one should keek talking about rafa? how sexy his hair are , how good his forehand is? What’s the fun when you don’t analyze in the context of other players?

      I think the point is being missed here. We are not assessing novak’s game for novak’s fans to read ! COME ON! I do it because I like analyzing the game ! So do many others!

      and this is NOT a rafael nadal tennis website. It is a tennis website .

      • nats respectfully you missed VR’s point.

        He was calling out someone here for questioning a Rafan’s loyalty when they compliment Nole’s game even though it is ok for Rafa to do the same.

        The Majesty has Spoken with 100% Objectivity and Fairness.

    • and what’s the darn business of getting to the nerves of other rafa fans by calling them rafa detractors when they support rafa with passion. I am surprised you are okay with that…..

      • @ vamosrafa,

        no, I am not ok with that…and you know it…

        but I am also not ok to read constantly about Novak’s greatness on Rafa’s page…Rafa was even greater in his old days and we did not drag about whether any of his opponents praised him…TBH I couldn’t care less if Novak or anybody else praised Rafa’s game as long as he was wining…

        My point is: nadline opting not to mention that Rafa praised Novak’s level is no crime! Moreover, we did not even need to hear about it in the first place as we damn good remember Uncle T. statement “Novak is on a whole different level than Rafa” and we do not need to be reminded every second…so assessing Novak vs Rafa game nobody disputes…praising Novak…well, that’s for Novak’s page IMHO…

        I wouldn’t even get involved in this discussion but I was really annoyed by the fact that prior to the match with Nole tomorrow instead of analyzing Rafa’s game and his chances for tomorrow we are being reminded how great Novak is and should discuss THAT??? And then endless arguments to follow on whether Rafa praised Novak?! Why? Who cares? I prefer to talk about Rafa and his game…that’s all…

        sorry that I jumped in…it must be that I am nervous about tomorrow’s match and all I wanted was to read some very good assessments, and you vamosrafa provide very good insights…why waste your tallent in pointless discussions and endless arguments…we have hawkeye for that… 🙂

      • @hawkeye,

        Oh! In that case I agree with both of you…sorry…I thought it was a different issue and I completely misunderstood…

        but my last paragraph (10:39) stands… 🙂

      • natashao2013 (at 10:39 pm),
        —but I am also not ok to read constantly about Novak’s greatness on Rafa’s page…—
        —I wouldn’t even get involved in this discussion but I was really annoyed by the fact that prior to the match with Nole tomorrow instead of analyzing Rafa’s game and his chances for tomorrow we are being reminded how great Novak is and should discuss THAT??? —
        ===

        http://moopz.com/assets_c/2012/06/emoji-thumbs-up-150-thumb-48×48-140616.jpg

      • @natashao, I don’t know what to say really because you never understood the point. You have been talking about a totally different thing. You did write that you misunderstood so glad……thanks @hawkeye for clarifying.

        Nadline not opting to mention rafa praising novak was NOT the issue …. haha…. not even 1% close… I was trying to make the point that if some rafa fan praises something good about rafa’s rivals, don’t start calling him a rafa detractor bla bla because rafa, and as you yourself said, Toni aswell, do this themselves.

        Praising novak and doing it on rafa’s fan page or novak’s fan page , i don’t know where you got the impression that I am talking about this but i am glad it is clear .

        And never have I said any rafa fan here should mention rafa’s praises about novak’s when they write their posts?! never have and never would call anyone out for that, does not make sense.

        natashao2013 says:
        November 20, 2015 at 11:00 pm

        “Oh! In that case I agree with both of you…sorry…I thought it was a different issue and I completely misunderstood…”

        All good! I am nervous as well for tomorrow’s match. BEST OF LUCK TO OUR RAFA

      • @augusta once again posting things out of context. pity…. totally ignoring what @natashao wrote after that post! but usual stuff..

        natashao2013 (at 11:00 pm),
        “@hawkeye, Oh! In that case I agree with both of you…sorry…I thought it was a different issue and I completely misunderstood…but my last paragraph (10:39) stands…”

        ^ Natashao’s last word on this 🙂 a reasonable poster posted something reasonable to close it out.

        I am closing this too. On to the djokovic-nadal thread.

      • We have gone over and over this, trying to make the point that Rafa has given credit to Novak for his achievements. The point is that since Rafa is generous and smart enough to see what Novak has done and can praise him, what on earth is wrong with Rafa fans doing same? I think Rafa is a great example of sportsmanship and also one of the best tennis brains in the game. When he says positive things about Novak, we should pay attention! Who would know better than Rafa, as Novak’s chief rival!

        I think vamosrafa said it best – what are we supposed to do? Just gush over Rafa’s good looks and how gorgeous he is all the time? Yes, how sexy he is! Forget about his tennis!

        This has been going on for so long and it gets tedious.

      • nativenewyorker7 says:
        November 21, 2015 at 2:35 am
        —I think vamosrafa said it best – what are we supposed to do? Just gush over Rafa’s good looks and how gorgeous he is all the time? —
        ===
        .
        Rafa deserves more than that.

      • natashao2013 (at 11:00 pm),

        Hawk confused you. I didn’t see anyone ‘questioning a Rafan’s loyalty’ before vamosrafa raised this topic.

  7. And like always, Nadline is going to go quiet and then resume her routine of counting detractor eggs very shortly. Or are we in for a shocker this time?! Stay tuned 😀

  8. OK vr, you can call me a fanatic and I can call you a detractor. 🙂 The word detractor recognises that you are a Rafa fan but you stray a bit sometimes from the three line whip. 🙂

    • nopes, thank you but I have more logical perspectives. I have never ‘strayed’ a bit because I have supported rafa 365 days every year from 2005 onward and I don’t need you verdict on my loyalty LOL . Analyzing a match and his rivals is in no way linked to loyalty as long as your outlook on things is not too narrow.

      and NO, you CANNOT call me a detractor. I am fanatic and so are many other rafa fans here.

    • I am a Rafan(atic) and I’m happy with that!
      .
      I believe that I’m entitled to be or not to be a fan(atic) if I so wish, and it’s none of self-named true/real tennis fans’ business. 🙂

      • we are very pleased to stay out of this ‘business’. You are totally entitled but you ar enot entitled to anything when it comes to saying things about any other rafa fan. As long as you are doing that, don’t think anyone would have a problem.

    • vamosrafa says:
      November 20, 2015 at 8:14 pm
      —you ar enot entitled to anything when it comes to saying things about any other rafa fan.—
      ===
      .
      Read carefully comments above and on previous page – and you’ll find out WHO is writing about others! 🙂

      • Listen up people, do you hear there?

        Claiming to not be the one being “curious” and “wondering” about others by a fanatical secretary is none of our business.

        And it makes me wonder.

      • it was for the purpose of addressing an issue , an issue which is ongoing and gets to the nerves of many people! so for THAT purpose, the post was being addressed and it was very clearly mentioned why it was being directed at someone. I have zero interest otherwise. I hope the ‘minding of own business’ can be implemented.

        I am much happier discussing rafa and his tennis as evident in my 99.99% posts.

      • Listen up people, do you hear there?

        Unfortunately discussing rafa and his tennis happens to be less than 0.01% for some fanatical blind secretaries here (unless you include twitter pics, retweets and gifs).

        And it makes me wonder.

  9. Chris Kermode says he is going to take the Nadal/Ferrer match today to a seminar for young players to show them that dedication and commitment in a match is how pros should behave no matter what’s on the line because people pay god money to go and see them.

  10. One of my questions was put to Chris Kermode which was whether they would consider using hawkeye for foot faults, double bounce and let. He said the hawkeye technology wouldn’t work of them.

    • I could have explained that nadline. The rest of the body would too frequently block one or more of the 6-7 camera angles necessary to make the call. In addition, it’s accuracy at best is no better than 3 mm.

  11. we’re all fans, that’s what matters I guess. Otherwise we wouldn’t spend so much time and energy here. I doubt Rafa has ever read any of our comments. Pity, cause he could take a good point here and there.
    Even though sometimes I can’t understand nadine and augusta’s relentless safeguarding of anything to do with Rafa I admire it and I think this site is all the better for it. Nadine has been like a landmark in this horrible spell of which Rafa seems to be finally getting out.

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