World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ferrer

Ferrer shortsA completely meaningless match in terms of future bearing on the tournament will take place when fellow Spaniards Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer collide at the World Tour Finals on Friday. Nadal has already clinched the group, while Ferrer is out.

Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer will be facing each other for the 30th time in their careers when they wrap up their round-robin campaigns at the World Tour Finals on Friday afternoon.

Nadal is dominating the head-to-head series 23-6, but it stands at a far more competitive 5-4 in Nadal’s favor on hard courts. The two Spaniards most recently squared off in their only meeting of 2015 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo, where Nadal survived a quarterfinal test 6-4, 5-7, 6-2.

Fast forward seven months and this is a strikingly different world No. 5. So far this fall, Nadal has finished runner-up in Beijing and Basel, made a run to the Shanghai semifinals, and reached the quarters in Paris. At none of those four events, however, did he perform better than he has through two London matches. Nadal cruised past Stan Wawrinka 6-3, 6-2 then erased Andy Murray 6-4, 6-1.

This is the first time since Rome in 2013 that the 14-time major champion has defeated two top-four players in the same tournament.
Rafa5
Ferrer also stormed into the O2 with plenty of momentum, having captured recent titles in Kuala Lumpur and Vienna. But once again a steep step up in competition has proven to be too much for Ferrer to handle. The seventh-ranked Spaniard lost his opener to Murray 6-4, 6-4 before blowing a 5-2 first-set lead against Wawrinka and falling 7-5, 6-2.

Ferrer’s baseline game has been solid this week, but his serve has given him no chance so succeed against the best players in the world. In two outings, the 33-year-old has combined for zero aces and 11 double-faults (eight against Murray, three against Wawrinka).

A proverbial “dead” match is not a particularly enthralling proposition for the fans, but if you could pick two players to contest such a match, Nadal and Ferrer would be the two. Their effort levels can never be questioned regardless of circumstances. Unfortunately for Ferrer, Nadal’s best effort vs. his own best effort is a significant mismatch right now.

Pick: Nadal in 2

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35 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Ferrer

  1. Look at Rafa’s serving stats! He’s getting a good percentage of first serves in, but winning only 54%? Also, 42% of second serve points? That’s dreadful.

    Too many UE’s from both guys. Rafa just gave away that first set. I don’t think Ferrer is doing anything special at all. This is about Rafa letting it get away.

  2. I called it first post Ferrer will win because this match don’t matter too much to nadal. I’m not saying he is losing intentional I’m saying he won’t try as hard and risk injury or being tired for the finals. For example if there was a shot that requires stretching to get nadal won’t go for it unless because this match don’t mean much. But if it’s finals he will do everything possible to keep the ball in play.

  3. David has always pushed Rafa indoors, even in his hay days. Ferrer’s in your face style is very much against Rafa’s naturally tentative play.

  4. It doesn’t necessarily follow but I agree this match is not a good portent for tomorrow. Rafa is being too predictable and letting Ferrer dictate.

  5. Rafa needs to be winning matches efficiently. It’s hard to believe this is the same Rafa who beat both Stan and Murray easily. He cannot afford to be out there slugging away with Ferrer for a three setter.

    If he has those serving stats tomorrow, then he will be toast against Novak.

    • Yes, Rafa is usually pretty good with his challenges. He’s got a great eye. That means something is definitely off with him today. I hope that it’s just the fact this match doesn’t mean anything and it’s all about tomorrow.

  6. As Djoko and his team are watching Rafa to pick up pointers, Rafa is hiding the new Rafa to be let him out only tomorrow!!! Vamos Rafa!

  7. Ferrer is the worst opponent one can get who has not qualified and therefore can play freely…he’s got nothing to lose…it’s his last match and he will run at every ball and do wonders just to win the point…not good for Rafa…from the perspective of match duration and being physically demanding for Rafa…

    • Thats why i said ferrer was going to win when this post was opened. Nadal shouldnt have any interest to exhause himself and risk injury which significantly decreases his chances of winning. Im not saying he is tanking, im saying he is not trying as hard because this match dont matter much and he has to worry about tomorrow.

  8. This reminds me also about how Feli played against Rafa. Feli like Ferrer would play aggressive attacking tennis against Rafa and that’s the kind of tennis that Rafa hates to play against. Ferrer on the HCs tends to be more aggressive and goes on an attacking mode and points are shorter, not giving Rafa time to work the point and settle into his rhythm.

    Rafa tends to recoil into defensive mode facing players like this, bad habit as I think Rafa’s attacking game is not bad at all and should counter attack with attack.

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