World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

November 17, 2015 Ricky Match previews 201

P1150097The only lower-seeded player to win his first World Tour Finals round-robin match has a chance to take control of Group Ilie Nastase when Rafael Nadal returns to action again on Wednesday. Up next for Nadal is Andy Murray.

Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal will take 1-0 World Tour Finals records with them into their 22nd career meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

The head-to-head series stands at 15-6 in favor of Nadal, but it is an even 5-5 on hard courts. It is also tied 1-1 indoors following a 2009 Rotterdam win by Murray and a 7-6(5), 3-6, 7-6(6) thriller at the 2010 World Tour Finals that went to Nadal. Their only previous encounter in 2015 came on the clay courts of Madrid, where the Scot rolled 6-3, 6-2 to capture the title.

Fast forward six months and Nadal is in much better form now. The fifth-ranked Spaniard recently finished runner-up in Beijing and Basel to go along with a semifinal showing in Shanghai and a quarterfinal performance in Paris. He easily maintained momentum on Monday by winning his opener at the O2 6-3, 6-2 over Stan Wawrinka.
Rafa 2
Murray enjoyed a similarly routine day against David Ferrer, needing only eight more minutes than Nadal (1:30 to 1:22) to prevail 6-4, 6-4. The world No. 3 is now 10-3 since the U.S. Open with a semifinal appearance in Shanghai and a run to the Paris final.

Whether he likes it or not, Murray seems to be on his way to the semifinals–thus cutting down on his clay-court preparation time for the upcoming Davis Cup final between Great Britain and Belgium. But he got in a week of practice on the red stuff last week and by the looks of his opening match he is motivated to do well in London.

That, along with the low-bouncing surface, is bad news for Nadal. Look for Murray to dictate play and eventually wear down his opponent thanks in part to the indoor conditions, but both players should advance to the semis in the end.

Pick: Murray in 3

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201 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Murray vs. Nadal

  1. Ricky picked Rafa over Murray in three just four days ago.

    Why the change of heart Ricky?

    Better late than never.

    If 0 is the level that Rafa when he lost to Murray on clay (about right), and 9 is the level Rafa needs to be to beat Murray indoors in his current good form, then Rafa is about a five ATM.

    Murray in two is the pick.

    Reply

  3. I thought Murray did not look good against Ferrer…Ferry just let this one go with the first serve of small 49% and 8 DFs. Goodness! And he still managed to break Andy and make the match competitive…

    I think Rafa has a strong chance. I think his body serve of last night will work well against Andy..I think Rafa’s top spin shots will not be pleasant for the Scot…he is used to flat hits and Rafa may surprise him as he did with Wawa….While Rafa’s lapses in focus may lead to him losing one set I go for Rafa in 3…

    Reply

    • Somehow Murray plays his best when playing Rafa. In 2010, it was he who spoilt Rafa’s chances by engaging him in a long exhausting battle. Rafa was in great form then and seemed ready to conquer all surfaces.

      Reply

  6. This is the one that I am struggling with the most. It’s the one match that I think Rafa could lose. I cannot see Rafa losing to Ferrer. But Murray can be tough, especially on these indoor hard courts. I don’t know that I will ever forget that 2010 semifinal with Rafa and Murray. A three hour three setter that Rafa somehow pulled off!

    I just don’t know. On paper, I think it’s Murray in 3 sets. But my heart says Rafa in 3.

    Reply

  9. I’m okay for Rafa to lose tonight as fed will top his group
    I prefer Rafa to meet Fed and not Nole. So Rafa should be 2

    If kei beats Fed, its not sure shot that Kei will go ahead. Isnt it on number of sets lost and games in thathat order if its a point tie.

    Reply

    • sanju (at 3:50 am),

      If two players are tied in their group, then their final standings will be determined by H2H results.
      If three players are tied in their group, then their final standings will be determined by % of sets won (if they still remain tired, then by % of games won).

      Reply

  13. Of Murray’s 6 wins over Rafa I can point to 2 where Rafa was injured. Rafa retired at the AO 2010 and in Rotterdam 2009 Rafa played with an injured foot. Andy even remarked that a one legged Rafa was able to take a set off him.

    It’s amazing that people only want to go back to the Madrid match which Andy won but not the FO where Rafa won 3,2 & 1. In Stan’s case against Rafa, they go all the way back to AO 2014. Normally, Ricky would dismiss the Madrid result as irrelevant for an indoor h/c tournament, but in this case he is quite happy to use it.

    What happens tonight is all that matters. The rest is ‘history’. If we are going to take past victories into account then 15:6 in favour of Rafa is all we need to quote.

    Reply

  14. I hope Rafa beats Murray today…however, it will not be the end of the world if he loses as he will avoid Novak, the scenario that I personally prefer…

    I watched the game last night along with some Fed’s fans and they all said Fed would much prefer to meet either Murray or Wawa (there is still a chance for him to go through, though) than Rafa…I would love Rafa to meet Fed in the semis…so if he loses today and beats Ferrer convincingly he is set to meet Fed in the semis…

    BTW, Nóle’s fans really do not care if it’s Andy or Rafa…they are however grateful that Rafa destroyed Wawa…nobody in Nole’s fan base here likes Wawa…no wonder why… 😉

    my life gets so interesting…I am surrounded by Nole’s fans and the Fed fans here and there…there are however Rafans who come out when Rafa wins… the number is getting bigger in Rafa’s favor… 🙂

    let’s see what Rafa will do this afternoon…in any case losing today’s match will mean nothing as I firmly expect Rafa to beat Ferry…

    Vamos Rafa!

    Reply

  15. when I come to think of it, if Wawa beats Ferry today he will strongly remain in the equation for the semis…Murray will definitely try his best today to ensure another win…he is not certain to beat Wawa…

    Reply

  16. I want Rafa to beat Andy no matter what it means as regards getting to the semis. I have had enough of the British commies slagging Rafa off and bigging up Andy because of his win in Madrid. They have airbrushed every one of Rafa’s 15 wins over Murray and go on and on about the win in Madrid where Murray played a very different Rafa from the one he’ll play today.

    If Rafa wins, the Andy apologists will come out with the excuse that Murray tanked because of the DC..

    Reply

    • Luckily because I am in France TennisTV beams the international version of Eurosport which usually means Koenig and Co. for the big matches. For the moment Koenig is being relatively pro-Rafa which makes a welcome change. Knowitall is being painfull as always but he is not prone to sycophancy towards Murray. Andrew Castle and that lot are so OTT there’s nothing for it but to hit the mute button.

      But I agree they all keep referencing maybe Andy has ‘other things’ on his mind. So far they haven’t started the build-up to the birth of baby Murray. Come the AO it will be their only topic of conversation.

      Reply

      • According to Annabel Croft Rafa was missing his fhs in practice to the extent that he shook hands with his practice partner and asked U. Toni to feed him balls instead and left the court looking despondent whilst Murray is looking very confident.

        I heard her say almost similar things before a MC final between Rafa/Novak – that U. Toni and Rafa seemed to be arguing during practice whilst Djokovic’s camp looked relaxed and ready and Rafa went on to win the match.

        Reply

  17. I hope Rafa plays fairly agressive and cuts down the rallies…he should not engage in long points with Andy…Andy is mainly a defensive player so “fair agression” seems sufficient to beat him, which means right combination of offense and defense in the way only Rafa can do…also, I hope Rafa employs that body serve which worked well against Wawa…

    let’s wait and see…stay calm, dear Rafa! You have nothing to lose…

    Vamos!

    Reply

    • I totally agree. Getting into long rallies always end up being who blinks first and Andy can defend until the cows come home. Ferrer had the right tactics but his serve let him down at crucial times. This is the thing with tennis – making errors at the wrong time could cost you the match so no one knows how it’s going to pan out but I hope Rafa gets it done and quickly.

      Vamos Rafa!

      Reply

  18. I am certain Muzz will not tank deliberately. It’s not in his nature. What is open to question is just how far he is prepared to go to get the win. Which is a different matter entirely. However, with Murray you never know which version will show up.

    Regardless I am voting for Rafa in 2

    Reply

  21. Nobody is tanking in this match or doesn’t want to win. They will both come out and play to win this match. As for me, I never want Rafa to lose. A win against Murray here will be a big confidence boost for him.

    Reply

  27. Rafa serving poorly and returning poorly; Murray rallying poorly. Fed and Novak need not worry about them if they continue to play this way.

    Reply

      • Yes poorly and wasted so many BP chances. It’s not like Murray was serving any better either. Rafa wasn’t able to capitalize on Murray’s second serve until the last game of the first set. The second set Rafa was playing better but Murray wasn’t.

        Rafa played well enough to win despite a poor first serve %. If he up his first serve % he will be playing even better for sure.

        Reply

  29. yesss!!! That’s the way to go, Rafa! Show them all (including the resident hawkeye who still does not believe in Rafa 🙂 )

    Vamos!!!!!

    Reply

  38. I am not watching but the scoreline here is quite telling I believe! rafa’s winning matches easily! In the beginning of the year, if an opponent was playing badly, rafa was playing even worse! Don’t know how Murray has played so far but I would like to believe rafa is doing a pretty good job.

    Reply

    • vamosrafa,

      I just watched my recording of the match. I was following the score on my iPhone while in physical therapy and saw that Rafa won the first set. But I wasn’t able to follow it after that. So I came home and watched it without knowing the result.

      I thought Rafa played a great match. He was very aggressive and took the court away from Murray. Also by moving inside the baseline and taking the ball earlier, his forehand was that much more effective. Rafa was controlling the baseline and dictating points.

      Murray double faulting three times in the first game of the second set, didn’t help his cause. Rafa really took control in that second set.

      I don’t care what this victory means for who plays who! Rafa beat the #2 player! What a difference from Madrid!

      This is real! We wondered when Rafa would beat anyone in the top five. Well, it’s happening now!

      Reply

  40. He must be playing amazing with his 1st serve barely at 50%.

    If Rafa wins here, it’s big IMO.

    First win over a Big 4 player in 1.5 years going 0-5 over that time.

    A statement win and a big step to full recovery.

    Mmmmmm….. breadsticks!!!!

    Reply

    • hmmm…12 winners….. as he gains more confidence, the power and penetration on shots is going to go up and we will see more winners. He needs to hit more against Novak. Really impressive stuff!! who would have thought rafa would lose a mere ten games combined against Muzz and Wawa …..LOL

      Reply

  52. Singles Group Ilie Nastase qualification scenarios:

    R. NADAL qualifies on Wednesday if:
    – R. NADAL defeats A. MURRAY and S. WAWRINKA defeats D. FERRER.
    – R. NADAL defeats A. MURRAY in 2 sets and D. FERRER defeats S. WAWRINKA in 3 sets.
    [Source: ATP]

    Reply

  53. Rafa playing a tactically sound match, using his guile and varieties to overcome a Murray who tried to hit hard to overpower Rafa. Rafa just varied his spin and pace, I feel Murray hitting so often into the net because he couldn’t deal with Rafa’s topspin heavy balls.

    If Rafa can find his first serve more often he’ll be even harder to beat! I like Rafa playing at his own pace, doesn’t rush and I feel that’s the best way to deal with Fed or Novak.

    Reply

  54. does anyone think rafa can beat nole?? is a step too far with that serve i think…
    reckon he could beat fed because fed would get rattled and start to miss..

    Reply

    • If Novak continues to play like during his match vs Fed, and Rafa improves his serve, then I think Rafa can make a match of it and will have his chances of winning. However, if Novak ups his level and not missing anything then it’s difficult to see a Rafa win. Like I said earlier, Rafa needs to control the pace of his play, don’t let Novak rush him into errors. I like the way Rafa plays this RR match with Murray, he’s not rushing to finish a point but has time to think and vary his play during the match. Rafa is aggressive but not overly aggressive and doesn’t need to take much risk,

      Reply

      • lucky,

        I like your analysis of how Rafa played against Murray. Rafa seemed to know exactly what he needed to do. He was controlling the rallies and got great court positioning in this match. He does need to work on that serve.

        I also agree about Novak. If he plays the way he did against Fed and Rafa serves well, then Rafa can make a mathc of it and could have a chance at winning. But if Novak does go up another gear, then it’s going to be tough for Rafa.

        It’s really great to see Rafa playing this way, winning against players in the top five. We know it’s real now!

        If Rafa defeats Ferrer, then he will go 3-0!

        Reply

      • Lucky: You’ve put it in a nutshell. What I particularly noticed about his match with Muzza was the way he was playing within himself but was able to ratchet it up when he needed to. I don’t understand the reason for both of them posting such a low 1st service %.
        Today it wasn’t so critical for Rafa but it is a vital tool for getting out of trouble in the months ahead.
        .

        Reply

  55. I was intrigued by the distribution of votes in the poll. There must be a lot of closet Andy fans and a more than a few pessimistic Rafans. Votes for a straight sets win was split 50/50. I was one of the 18% who forecast a straight sets win for Rafa.

    Reply

  57. Thanks for this augusta08. Love hearing straight from Rafa how he constructs his points.

    Dr. Rafa says:

    “It’s tough to analyze in terms of shots this year, no because when you are not able to focalize your mind on the shot and you are not able to play with the right colm then is IMPOSSIBLE to think about the right tactics because at the end of the day you are competing against yourself.

    Well the opponents have been tough but obviously if I have to say something with the year that I felt more strange feelings in terms of mental part.”

    Bravo Rafa!!!

    Reply

      • Rafa says his main opponent was himself – then, as a qualifier, he adds that his opponents were “obviously” tough…then, comes the but, but part and restates in different wording that it was actually (me) with a mental block. He’s the most charming and adept – even when not in his native tongue. He’s extremely mindful of others’ feelings and how he’s coming across in most cases.

        Nole, Fed, Rafa – all believe the problem is within themselves and in their power to change when they are off form and lose. Specific fans of the 3 mentioned also follow that perspective, passionately. All of these champions learned to work the media and public relations at a young age. (Federer is the worst at it – which makes him funnier/more awkward, imo)

        It’s tougher than it sounds to watch tennis from both sides, Hawk, but enough objectivity to describe match action realistically attainable. Not saying I have it, but I keep trying. Lucky, NNY, others here are doing a very good job at objectivity. You are also good at it, when it suits you 😉

        Commentators and journos make objectivity their study and are supposed to keep it as close as possible. Still, it comes naturally to some more than others.

        Reply

      • Thanks. I try to be objective but yes only when it suits me which I wish was the norm rather than the exception.

        I’m intentionally much less objective when corresponding with fandom bias regardless of the player.

        Reply

      • Commentators especially because they should be held to a higher standard.

        Most are fedfans. PMac and Devid Mercer are the absolute worst.

        IMO, Chris Fowler and JMac are Rafans.

        As for writers, Bodo is a fed fan and Tignor is a Rafan.

        Took me a while to figure out Ricky (kudos to him) but he is a Rafan (he’d probably protest).

        Reply

      • A lie detector would almost certainly say Ricky is not telling the truth if he denied Rafa is amongst his favourites. But unlike, as is the case for many of his colleagues, he doesn’t allow it to surface in biased reporting.

        Reply

      • You’re right Ed. It doesn’t show up in his articles – only vaguely in his comments.

        I’d also argue it is easier for writers to hide bias than commies who are on the spot which is why Bodo is one of the worst offenders.

        Reply

  59. I did not notice Andy cut a strand of his hair during the break between the games?!

    Local sport site announced Rafa’s victory with the title: “Nadal better than British hairdresser” 🙂

    Reply

  61. He sure did! Courier and Annacone were laughing over it quite a bit! They replayed it because Murray did it when he was on the sidelines between games.

    I thought it was positively hilarious! He actually took out a scissor and cut his bangs! 🙂

    Reply

  62. Very happy for Rafa. I always believed he would play well again. Hopefully Rafa will be no. 2 soon. He knows too well how to irritate the number 1 player of the world.

    Reply

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