World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Federer

Fed 1Either Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer will improve to 2-0 at the World Tour Finals and take control of Group Stan Smith on Tuesday. Djokovic is coming off a straight-set beatdown of Kei Nishikori, while Federer made similarly quick work of Tomas Berdych.

A tie will be broken–at least temporarily–when Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer square off for the 43rd time in their careers during round-robin action at the World Tour Finals on Tuesday.

The head-to-head series stands at 21-21 following Djokovic’s 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4 triumph in the U.S. Open final this summer. Djokovic has won four of six meetings in 2015, including four of the last five. The world No. 1 also prevailed in the Wimbledon title match via a 7-6(1), 6-7(10), 6-4, 6-3 scoreline. Federer’s two victories this season have come in Dubai (6-3, 7-5) and Cincinnati (7-6(1), 6-3).

This ends a streak of four consecutive encounters between the two players in finals. But they are not entirely strangers to early-tournament meetings, as they also battled in London round-robin competition in 2013. Djokovic took that match 6-4, 6-7(2), 6-2 to improve to 2-1 lifetime against Federer at this event. The Serb also got the job done in the 2012 championship match, while Federer came out on top in the 2010 semifinals. They were scheduled to vie for last year’s title, but the Swiss had to withdraw due to a back injury.

Federer is dealing with no such troubles now and can leave everything on the court without a Davis Cup final to worry about, as was the case in 2014. The 34-year-old, a recent champion in Basel, is a stellar 60-10 for his 2015 campaign after beating Tomas Berdych 6-4, 6-2 on Sunday night. Federer won 12 of the last 16 games following a brief 2-0 first-set deficit.

Djokovic needed only one hour and five minutes–four minutes fewer than Federer–to roll over Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1 on Sunday afternoon. The top seed is now 79-5 for the season and 23-0 in his last 23 matches since falling to Federer in Cincinnati.
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“It was quite unusual [in 2013] to play each other so early in a tournament,” Federer said of their previous World Tour Finals round-robin contest. “This doesn’t feel now so crazy early because we’ve had the week of preparation; we’ve both had a match now. I think we both feel like we’re in the tournament.”

And they both will be regardless of Tuesday’s outcome. Djokovic, the three-time defending champion, is looking too good for anyone at the moment–even for Federer–but do not be surprised if this is not the last time these two see each other on opposite sides of the net in London.

Pick: Djokovic in 3

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32 Comments on World Tour Finals preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Federer

  1. This is going to be very interesting. Djokovic in 3 is the sensible pick. of course .

    I am going with Fed in 3 for this round robin match.

  2. Yes, this is a tough one. I just can’t see Novak beating Fed twice at this event. I am assuming that they will both come out of their group on top.

    As always, the easy pick is Novak in 3 sets. But I will also go with Fed in 3 for this one.

  3. This is a dress rehearsal for the final. The only thing which might play a factor is if Djokovic wants to add spice to the event by easing his foot off the pedal today before bringing down the hammer in the final.
    Federer in 3

    #Will he, wont he.

  4. I’m hoping for Fed in two, probably in 3. Kei made Novak looked very good; Kei was serving poorly, Novak just played everything better than Kei (imo Kei’s like a mini Novak except he comes with a more attacking mindset, both are versions of Davydenko, Novak being the improved version with incredible defensive skills add in; Kei the more aggressive version).

    I fell asleep during the Fed/Berdych match, watched some of it. Fed was playing well enough to beat Berdych in straights when Berdych was playing better than Kei did. If Fed uses all his guile and aggression and cut down on his errors, he can beat Novak.

  5. I still had the family here yesterday so didn’t see any of the matches live. Watched snatches of Federer and Berdy late last night and was surprised he lost so easily. Did he just fade or was it Federer upping his level?

  6. More than Federer’s serve, it will be his FH that will decide the outcome of the match.
    Fed needs his FH to be almost at its best to beat Novak ( esp given how slow the court looked yesterday).
    Djokovic’s ROS has been insane for the whole year. Don’t think Roger will get many free points on his serves. So FH becomes the key for him.
    So yeah, I will be really surprised if Fed manages to beat him tomorrow (even though him along with Stan are the only guys whom I give a shot at beating Nole here at the O2)

  7. I do not think Fed will beat Novak tomorrow…Unfortunately I am inclined to believe that Fed won’t even take a set from Novak…those who think Novak could end up playing lose and focus on the finals instead thus letting this one go are mistaken…Novak earns points and money and he is the fittest on tour…he is so high on confidence and will not want to lose any match here…it’s Fed who could do some calculation and decide not to go for broke as he is expected to play in the semis and needs to be rested for it…he is 34 remember?

    if they happen to meet in the finals then I expect a tougher Fed to show up…

    • Nats: I didn’t say he would ‘fake bad’. It was an idle ‘what if’ conjecture 🙂
      I agree with you. He will want to emphasise his dominance and make hay while the sunshines.

      • I’ll reword that: He’ll WANT to emphasise his dominance IF HE CAN.

        Wanting to and being able to not necessarily being the same thing 😉

    • Nole hasn’t beaten fed in straights on a hard court in three years. On the contrary, Fed beat Nole in straights twice this year alone.

      If Nole plays his best game on these slow courts, Fed doesn’t stand a chance, however I don’t think he will.

      Expect another US Open like classless crowd bias for Fed.

  8. @abhirf
    I meaant to say the other day I remember you mentioning earlier in the year that you had a lot going on so it’s nice to see you crop up again here. Been a topsy turvy season for Rafans this year but everybody is looking forward to the Fedal enounter. These days they are few and far between.

  9. Djokovic hasn’t beaten Fed in straight sets on a hard court in his last nine tries.

    Last time he did it was 2012 and that was 76 75.

    Fed has beaten Nole in straight sets in three of those nine meetings (twice this year).

    This one has Fed written all over it.

  10. Stan suffers from a sense of entitlement to beat Rafa because he is believing the propaganda so when he comes up against the real Rafa he can’t take it then he starts to sulk.

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