Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Raonic

Earning a second life at Wimbledon after coming back from two sets down against Marin Cilic in the quarters, Roger Federer will meet Milos Raonic on Friday. The winner will play either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych in the final.

Roger Federer and Milos Raonic will be facing each other for the 12th time in their careers when they battle for a place in the Wimbledon title match on Friday.

Federer is dominating the head-to-head series 9-2, including 2-0 on grass and 1-0 at Wimbledon. They also squared off in the semifinals at the All-England Club two years ago, when the Swiss cruised 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. Raonic had been an especially futile 1-9 against Federer before prevailing 6-4, 6-4 early this season to capture the Brisbane title.

The first five months of 2016 were nothing short of an injury-plagued disaster for the 34-year-old, but he appears to be heating up at just the right time. On the heels of unspectacular semifinal finishes in Stuttgart and Halle, Federer now finds himself in the Wimbledon semis for the 11th time in his illustrious career. The seven-time champion rolled over Guido Pella, Marcus Willis, Daniel Evans, and Steve Johnson before staging an epic comeback against Marin Cilic on Wednesday that featured three match-point saves en route to a 6-7(4), 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(9), 6-3 triumph.
FedGrass
“I prefer to be here than booking a jet,” Federer said after his close call versus Cilic. “I’ll tell you that. For me, I’m very pleased…. Today was epic. (I’m) probably going to look back at this as being a great, great match that I played in my career, on Centre Court here at Wimbledon…. This is huge for me, my season, my career. I’m very, very happy. I think I’m playing good tennis, too.”

Raonic took his turn surviving the brink of defeat during fourth-round action on Monday, when he outlasted David Goffin 4-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. That was preceded by much more routine defeats of Pablo Carreno Busta, Andreas Seppi, and Jack Sock, and it was followed by a 6-4, 7-5, 5-7, 6-4 quarterfinal victory over Sam Querrey.

“I look forward to it a lot,” Raonic assured. “(It’s) definitely a great opportunity. Two years have passed since I played him here in the semifinals. I’m happy that I have another shot at him…. Probably from the mental side, I’ll look at what I wouldn’t want to repeat from two years ago.”

With Federer two years older and Raonic much-improved, mentally tougher, and tactically sounder since that 2014 encounter, a much more competitive contest should be in the cards. But Federer is 10-0 lifetime in Wimbledon semifinal matches and that is a record that cannot be discounted even though much of it was compiled during the prime of his career. The world No. 3 is likely to make it 11-0 by scoring another win over an opponent whom he has mostly owned.

Pick: Federer in 4

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46 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Federer vs. Raonic

  1. ‏@Wimbledon 31s32 seconds ago
    Raonic: “John [McEnroe] gave me plenty of nuggets that helped today. So did Carlos [Moya]. I hope they have a lot more to give me”

  2. I still cant believe he couldn’t hold his serve at 40-0 in that 4th set.. its going to hurt for a long time and all those missed opportunities on BPs… But theres gotta be a loser and today was fed. Well done to Raonic, hopefully he can serve as well against Andy on Sunday and win his first major as the longer rallies will belong to Murray.

    • So Raonic did it! I am not at home and have been trying to follow the score.

      I saw Fed take that nasty tumble and wondered if he would be okay. I did see Raonic get the break to go up 3-1. That’s when I had to leave.

      Not bad for a guy withal just poor returns and rallying! No player is perfect. Everyone has weaknesses. But Raonic did not give up. He stayed mentally tough and hung in there. He played well when it counted. That is what wins slams!

      Raonic is a much more complete player than he was a few years ago and will continue to work on aspects of his game. But he deserves all due credit for showing heart and guts an fight.

      I picked Fed, but I was wrong. I thought he was so close that nothing would stop him from getting to another final. But it was not to be. Commiserations to Fed fans on this tough loss for your man.

      • The Fed of last year would win this match. Fed clearly not that good this Wimbledon, esp after his narrow escape vs Cilic. In fact had Cilic not choked, he would have won in 3 or 4 sets.

        Fed was still the better player in set 3 and 4 and he was unfortunate to serve those DFs in the last game of the 4th set, played a brain freeze point and lost.

        Raonic won but that didnt change the fact the his game is limited. On grass with his big serve and volleying he still can get things done but I doubt that’s enough on the other surfaces when his returns and rallying aren’t great. The grass surface suits his game best but if Fed could handle his serves then what about Djoko and Murray?

      • Well said nny! Lucky doesn’t get it.

        Yes Milos has limitations but here’s a guy who’s continued to try everything to squeeze out every ounce of potential from his game.

        Maybe last year’s Fed would have won today (arguably the best grass player of all time and at/near that best last year), but last year’s Raonic certainly wouldn’t have won today.

        Vamos Milosh! No matter what!!!

        🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        • Hawkeye didnt get it. Who said Raonic didnt improve? Read again! I said despite his improvement his game is still limited. I’ve already said enough about his limitations, not going to repeat.

        • Hawkeye,

          I agree with you that Fed of last year would have won. I also agree that Raonic of last year would not have won. There is simply no question that he has improved his game and especially his groundstrokes. Big guys are not usually great movers, but I think that Raonic has also improved in that area. He’s always had composure and mental toughness.

          I appreciate how Raonic has worked to improve his game. That is what you want to see in a young player. He’s got the big serve, but he’s not a one-note.

          Fed had the match in his hands when he went up a break in the fourth set. But Raonic just refused to give up. That is a quality which can trump some of the limitations in his game.

          No player is perfect or without weaknesses. Even the top players. Rafa exposed fed’s backhand when he went after it, most memorably in the 2009 AO. Novak had innate talent, but did not have the mental strength, physical fitness and will to hang in when things got tough. But then came Novak 2.0 and an even more improved version last year.

          Players want to maximize their strengths and not let their opponents take advantage of their weaknesses. Raonic managed to win and his weaknesses were not a factor because he had other strengths that compensated.

          As I said previously. I am not a fan of Raonic. But as a tennis fan, I have to respect his effort in coming back to win the match.

  3. Wimbledon ‏@Wimbledon 6m6 minutes ago
    Milos Raonic is the first non-European male finalist at #Wimbledon since Andy Roddick seven years ago

  4. Federer lost to age, not Raonic.
    The best Fed fan is Benny, not abhirf. Benny is never rude, loves Fed but doesn’t hate other players. abhirf is rude and is anti-Rafa. Benny knows his tennis. abhirf doesn’t know the difference between a serve and a groundstroke!

  5. That 2 double faults at 5-6 40-15 in the 4th…
    C’mon Rog!
    Anyway, Raonic played a great match, especially that game he broke Fed in the 4th he was amazing so kudos to him. Of course I wanted Fed to win, this loss really hurts me as an obsessed Fed fan, but I guess that’s the way it goes, the youngsters beat those oldies’.

    Now I kinda hope he retires at the end of this season, because in 2017 losses to guys younger like 10 years than him will happen more systematically and maybe it is better to retire when you are (almost) at the top?

    Still hoping for some titles this year, Basel, Cincinnati maybe Shanghai, Rio Olympics or even the Us Open?

  6. Well done Raonic… told ya he was going to win if it went to 5…. fed had to do it in 4… Federer looked kind of spent too in the fifth.

    Honestly, to me personally, not being one of the best players of the 5th set puts a dent on federer’s legacy. He just wilts away on many occasions.

    Fed is arguably the best of this era but today was Raonic’s day. The Canadian deserves it. He handled the occasion too well and used his strengths fabulously.

    • Bad call at the toss to receive 1st.

      Raonic got the opportunity to serve 1st in 4 of the 5 sets.
      Tough to serve under constant pressure.

      Also again, like many of his losses in important matches, his BP conversion lost him the match once again!!

      • The two dfs at 40-15 at 6-5 cost him. If he had held and even if he lost the tb, he would be serving first in the fifth otherwise.

  7. Although I am not a Fed fan, I felt sad seeing how Time can lay low a genius! I never thought I would feel sentimental or teary. I agree with luckystar. Raonic doesn’t have the genius of the big four or even Berdy.

  8. Huge chance. 2014 U.S. Open all over again. Kudos to Raonic I heard he played great. I had to go out at 5-5 in the fourth. I heard fed doubled twice at 5-6 40-15 though. That’s just not getting it done when he needed to. I so hope he will get an 18th slam but he missed a big opportunity here. This is huge for Raonic. The addition of Johnny Mac to the team was an amazing move. He will probably keep McEnroe as a coach now unless McEnroe has other priorities or something like the champions tour. Man I’m just so bummed now. I just don’t think the final will be as exciting now. I think fed and Murray would’ve been so much more compelling. Raonic and Murray won’t be awful but the points and atmosphere just won’t be as good. And it could be a very short final. Especially with the crowd fully behind Murray. The crowd would’ve been a bit more neutral if fed was his opponent. I’m definitely rooting for Raonic in the final though. Would be sick to see him win his first grand slam.

  9. Murray has a chance to go through a GS without having to face Rafa Roger or Djoko. Murray’s title to lose. Poor guy has a record of 2-8 in finals 🙁

  10. I thought Fed played super this Wimbledon. Raonic was always going to be tight especially after a tough 5 setter against Raonic. Unfortunately for Fed, it went the other way this time

    Super tough draw even with no Djokovic, Cilic, Raonic and Murray. Ask very accomplished grass court players that are grand slam our future grand slam winners.

    • I thought Fed played super this Wimbledon. Raonic was always going to be tight especially after a tough 5 setter against Cilic. Unfortunately for Fed, it went the other way this time

      Super tough draw even with no Djokovic – Cilic, Raonic and Murray. All very accomplished grass court players that are grand slam or future grand slam winners.

  11. Not only is Milos in the final but the Canadian youngster Shapovalov is in the junior final. Canada having a great Wimby.

    • And all 3 Canadian boys are in the doubles SFs – Shapovalov and Auger-Aliassime are playing together and Sigouin with a German partner. The future looks bright.

  12. Fed of 2015 would definitely have won this one in my view. Remember that Federer is not even match tough at the moment! He has not played much lately and since his injury he hasn’t had a good run to develop that match toughness. It clearly showed today.

    The Federer factor aside, Raonic deserves so much praise. He lost the second set and opened the third to bomb 3 aces in a row to win the first game! His attitude was there and he really used his strengths well. When you can serve as big as Milos can, you are allowed to take big swings on your return esp when the server is under pressure. That’a what Milos did in the fourt set! Fed was so sloppy to make two DF’s but Raonic returned so aggresaively once he saw the opportunity and I was really impressed with his passing shots.The break in the fifth set was also thanks to his brilliant passing shots. He lifted his return and baseline game.

    I believe the right handed players should use backhands DTL more and more against Fed….Fed is no longer efficient in defending his forehand corner and is often seen to be playing open stance forehands on the run…He was hitting most of the running forehands with a close stance in his prime years.

    Anyway, the better player on the day won.

    I said after the AO that Raonic will be a big force come Wimby as long as he keeps his injuries in check. He is a future wimbledon champ but on Sunday it will be Murray’s second wimbledon.

    • vr,

      You make some good points about fed not being match tough. On ESPN they showed some of Fed’s presser and he said that he over achieved here. But he also said that it hurts to come so close.

      Considering how Fed’s year has gone, this really was a good result. But you could sense that Fed realized with Novak out of the way, he had a golden opportunity. But he ended up losing to a younger player.

      I also appreciated your praise for Raonic. Instead of going on about him being limited, I prefer to focus on the things that he did well. His groundstrokes have improved so much even in the last year. I see a young man who appears to want to be a complete player. I think hiring JMac paid off. Raonic now shows some emotion in matches. He’s not as robotic. I like to see s young player who wants to keep working to become the best he can be.

      Raonic has many strengths and they were on display in this match. It’s true that Fed helped with the DF’s in the crucial moments of the match. But Raonic was putting a lot of pressure on Fed. He was being aggressive and along with that big serve as a weapon, he was able to prevail.

      • Solid post NNY…on quick hard courts and grass in particular,the dynamics are different. It is about imposing your strengths to the extent that your weaknesses don’t quite matter. Look at arguably the best grass court player ever- Pete Sampras.

        Pete sure had some limitations and they were manifest in his struggles on clay. However, his strengths were so overwhelming on grass that he was untouchable! He used his service games to play freely in return games. I am not comparing Pete to Raonic…Pete was in another league….his forehand, his movement and his net play were quite extraordinary but he sure had some limitations that were exposed on slow courts.Therefore, Raonic should certainly keep on improving his strengths further to the point he is able to impose them on the field. He has done it for 6 matches here!

        On another note, I saw fed’s presser and he was GUTTED…he was very very very disapppinted…

        • vr,

          It’s a pleasure to talk tennis with you. Regarding Sampras, I have to say that I was not a fan. However, I absolutely respected his greatness. You are so right about how hood he was on the grass. That serve! But he had the complete game. When Sampras and Agassi played, I would tend to root for Agassi because I liked his baseline game and his awesome ROS. I didn’t have a favorite, so I could just watch and enjoy. The contrast in styles made it so appealing. Sampras was never able to win RG. His game was not ideally suited for clay. Back then, winning on clay was highly valued. There was an appreciation for what it took to win RG. Both was revered for his success there.

          When Fed and Rafa came along, then some rabid Fed fans started to denigrate winning on clay because of rafa’s success. Also, some bloggers like Pete Bodo started this business of rafa being a one-dimensional clay court player. As though it was a bad thing to be good on clay!

          I firmly believe that no player is perfect or without limitations or weaknesses. But it’s what you do with what you have, how you maximize your strengths and potential. I think the top four have done that.

          I have never said that Raonic is in the same class as the top four. He is not. He may never be in their class. But what I do see in him is the work ethic and desire to keep on working and improving.

          One big difference between Cilic and Raonic is mental toughness. I think Cilic should have won his match with Fed. Although Fed played some great tennis to run the fourth set, I thought that Cilic made too many errors and kind of lost his way. Raonic did not let that happen. That is the one thing that stands out as a contrast in how he and Cilic handled the pressure.

          • Didn’t have the privilege of witnessing the Andre-Pete rivalry. I have some their matches but I can imagine how much the excitement would have been at that time. Agassi’s my favourite returner ever!! I don’t have your experience of watching the game over all those years but I do understand what you’re saying.

            And yeah, sampras was a complete player… he only had ‘relative limitations’ which were exploited by good players on clay and slow hard courts. His strengths were so overwhelming on quick courts that he was just unstoppable! He has such a strong case for being the best fast court player ever.

            I agree with your mental toughness point as well… Raonic handled the pressure far better than Marin.

          • And your observations on how winning on clay has lost its significance or has been made to appear to have lower signifiance is totally valid…it is absurd!

  13. I am a fan of both Fed and Milos, but was rooting for Milos today even though I thought Fed would have a slight edge. Anyway, am very happy. At the beginning of this year I predicted that Milos would win either Wimbledon or the USO, so want Milos to make my prediction come true. Beating Andy at Wimbledon will be very tough but I think Milos can do it. He was close at the AO until the adductor injury, so I think he has a real shot on Sunday.

  14. RT @FireChrisChase: For the first time since 2002, there will be a Wimbledon final without Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic.

    #JustWow

  15. Also, Raonic’s serving patterns were really mature today. I am sure Moya and Johnny mac have a role in this. Raonic had SO much variety in his serve today. He was not going for corners all the time….he hit body serves as high as 140mph+ and was willing to set up a forehand rather than winning the point outright. Then there were occasions when he hit wonderful slider serves and the huge bombs up the middle or wide to the backhand on the ad court…. Really impressed with his serving patterns today….always kept Federer guessing.

  16. Watched the highlights and they confirmed how well Raonic played. He was down 0-30 on 5-5 in the fourth set and how he managed to hit that lunging forehand volley winner was incredible! Again, his body serves were so effective. he did’nt go for many aces today and wa smart with his patterns. We know how well Fed can block big serves so Milos was tactically really smart.

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