Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Shapovalov

Can anyone stop Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon?

Probably not, but Denis Shapovalov may have as good of a shot as anyone.

It will be Djokovic vs. Shapovalov in the semifinals on Friday afternoon at the All-England Club and they took much different paths to reach this stage. Djokovic has won 15 sets in a row since losing his first of the tournament, while Shapovalov has survived a pair of five-setters.

That being said, Shapovalov has been playing his best tennis of the season–by far–at the All-England Club. Requiring five sets against Philipp Kohlschreiber in round one was a bit alarming, but getting a walkover from Pablo Andujar immediately thereafter appears to have been just what the doctor ordered for the 22-year-old Canadian. He followed that up with straight-set beatdowns of Andy Murray and Roberto Bautista Agut before battling past Karen Khachanov 6-4, 3-6, 5-7, 6-1, 6-4 in the quarterfinals on Wednesday.

“I’ve seen him play against Murray,” Djokovic noted. “He’s really feeling great. Probably the ball gets to him on grass; it doesn’t bounce as much, so he can swing through the ball. I think (his) backhand was also working really well (from) what I saw [against Khachanov] in some important moments. I’m sure that that’s going to be the biggest test I will have so far in the tournament, which is also expected; it’s semifinals. I’m looking forward to it. It’s going to be a battle and I need to be at my best.”

His best is exactly where Djokovic has been in Grand Slams this year. Throwing pretty much all of his focus behind only the biggest events at this point in his career, the top-ranked Serb triumphed at both the Australian Open and French Open. As expected, Wimbledon has been even easier for him so far. He has won 15 sets in a row while blowing past Jack Draper, Kevin Anderson, Denis Kudla, Cristian Garin, and Marton Fucsovics.

“Obviously he’s the best player in the world, but I think anything is possible,” Shapovalov said. “When you look at the scoreboard the first thing on Friday, it’s going to be 0-0. So that’s it. It’s a tennis match; it could go either way.”

While the “it could go either way” comment is somewhat of a stretch, Shapovalov is one of the few players on tour who really does bring some belief to the court even when he is a heavy underdog. Although the world No. 12 is 0-6 lifetime against Djokovic, he forced a final-set tiebreaker at the 2020 ATP Cup and lost 7-5, 7-5 in a high-quality contest earlier this year–also at the ATP Cup.

Four factors can make Friday’s showdown at least somewhat competitive: Shapovalov’s current form, his belief, a grass-court surface that naturally levels the playing field of many matchups, and the fact that Djokovic has not been tested at all going into the semis.

Of course, it rarely ends well for the opponent when Djokovic does get tested (just ask Lorenzo Musetti, Matteo Berrettini, Rafael Nadal, and Stefanos Tsitsipas about their French Open losses, and Draper after he took a set in the Wimbledon first round). This should be a fun one for a while, but count on the top seed getting the job done without too much trouble.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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32 Comments on Wimbledon SF preview and prediction: Djokovic vs. Shapovalov

  1. Maybe it’s just me, but Novak doesn’t seem his best this year, and maybe anymore at 34. Seems strange to say given that he’s won the first two slams and is the favorite to win a third straight. But I thought he beat a diminished Rafa at RG and was lucky to win the final over Tsitsipas. I think the next Gen is ready to take over, and I’m calling it to start here. Shapovalov is playing some lights out tennis, and he has the game to deliver a victory on grass. Shapo in 4.

      • Compared to where he’s been in the past, obviously. I don’t think he’s playing at the level he was in 2016, for instance. To be sure, like Shapo said, Novak is the best player in the world right now, as he has been for quite some time. It’s a contrarian call, I just think Denis will take it today. But I’m not putting money on it!

      • Well, I got it wrong, sure, but you can hardly say it was pre-ordained. Shapo had plenty of chances in the first two sets, more than Novak. He’s getting better and if he can just get a bit of mental toughness he will be very hard to beat. But hats off to Djokovic for doing what he did. However, I’m still picking Matteo in the final.

  2. #Maybe it’s just me, but Novak doesn’t seem his best this year#.

    Djokovic doesn’t need to be 100% to win against Shapo and as we saw in the AO final, Djoker raises the level of his game when necessary.
    Novak-Shapo 3-1

  3. Denis reckons he can win. Good luck with that, the confidence of youth, but if you don’t have belief in your own ability, not much point in stepping on court.

  4. Djokovic knows Shapo’s weaknesses and they are profound especially to someone that filters and exploits them as well as the Serb does.

    I have Djokovic in 3 maybe 4 sets with close to no chance of a Shapo victory.

  5. I thought Shapo underperformed against Khachanov also and was quite nervous in the first set and a bit. If he had’ve won in 4 I’d be more optimistic about his chances. His performances are a bit up and down so well have to see.

    It’s a bad match up for him against a human backboard and great returner.

    • I agree with you. I don’t think Schap is a fully formed tennis player yet. Hoping it’s a good match, the best matches are between defenders and attackers. The worst are between serve bots, yes Isner and Mahut, I’m looking at you….

      • A bit unfair , esp to Mahut with so many doubles titles. That match was pretty bad though— but they’ve slowed down the grass considerably since the Nineties, it was much worse then .

  6. Djokovic leads 9-1 in sets against Shapo. Shapo took 1 set when they first played then Djokovic worked out his weaknesses.

  7. If Tsitsipas can’t beat Djokovic at the FO, I’m not sure how Denis is gonna manage it at Wimbledon. He’d have to play ridiculously good offensive tennis for a few hours, and I’m not convinced he’s up to it. I mean, it took him five sets just to get past Khachanov…

  8. Anyone that thinks they can make money on Shapovalov over the long run is kidding themselves. The most hot and cold player on tour. It’s been that way since day 1.

  9. This match’s level is kinda awful hahah. Like djokovic isn’t even there fully mentally he just knows he can play average tennis and beat the world number 12 lol. Shapovalov also choking a lot of chances hahaha

  10. I agree with Benny. That is my sense of this match. Novak does not have to be at his best to win this. Shapo is giving it away. His lack of experience is showing big time. Novak was able to sleepwalk his way through his draw. Now he gets a young guy who is wildly inconsistent and out of his depth.

    • Yep. Only guy with a chance against him was Berrettini in my mind. Berrettini would have beaten today’s Novak but that’s obviously a moot point cuz Novak would raise his level and will raise his level against Matteo.

      • Berrettini is going to have to continue serving lights out in the final. He will need big serving if he wants to have a chance.

  11. Chokervalov?Hehehe…yeah!..that name suits him really well!…
    I knew he will choke big time as he boasting yesterday that his game alone can defeat Nole!…Sooooo naive!

  12. These young guys are all talk. Talk is cheap. Rafa never runs his mouth. He lets his tennis do the talking! It tells you something that Novak did not have to play his best. Shapo did the self-destructing all by himself.

  13. Let’s go Nole! I was there today and good to see Nole get a decent amount of crowd support. As well as Berrertini has played (he was lights out today), rooting for Novak to create another piece of history on Sunday. Idemmooo!

    • In order to make it a “classic” Berrettini will have to keep his back hand well away from Djokovich, and that will be extremely difficult.

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