For the second slam in a row, the Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal rivalry will be renewed. Friday’s other semifinal will pit Novak Djokovic against Roberto Bautista Agut. The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray along with Pete Ziebron of Tennis Acumen make their picks.
(3) Rafael Nadal vs. (2) Roger Federer
Ricky: What have we done as fans to deserve Federer vs. Nadal at two straight slams? Well, the answer is: sit through a whole bunch of bad tennis and lopsided matches featuring players outside the Big 3 trying to beat the Big 3. Now everyone other than Roberto Bautista Agut is out of the way, so the stage is set for at least one dramatic semifinal and perhaps an epic final, too. Nadal has been awesome this fortnight, beating the likes of dangerous grass-courters Nick Kyrgios and Sam Querrey while dropping only one set along the way. The Spaniard just thrashed Federer 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 at the French Open, improving to 24-15 in the head-to-head series. That came on Nadal’s personal playground; now they move to Federer’s stomping grounds. Still, gael force wins in Paris should have leveled the playing field…but they didn’t. Grass obviously gives Federer a much better chance, but conditions have been slow and the Swiss wasn’t as impressive in the quarterfinals against Kei Nishikori as his arch rival was against Querrey. Nadal in 4: 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4, 7-5.
Cheryl: It’s THE match (no offense to Djokovic): the one that we thought might never happen again, first because Nadal had a horrid run at the All-England Club for a few years, and then because Federer hasn’t yet mastered aging in reverse. It’s Roger vs. Rafa at Wimbledon. Of course, it would be more fitting if it was the final, but we take what we can get. It’s the 40th edition of the greatest rivalry in tennis history. Their last encounter at Wimbledon was all the way back in 2008–a match for the ages that finished in near complete darkness, when Nadal just edged Federer 9-7 in the fifth in what is widely considered the greatest tennis match of all time. There’s no guarantee that we’ll get a repeat of that encounter, but both men have played beautiful tennis this fortnight. And you can be sure that the desire to win is as strong as ever. They’re going to fight for it as though their tennis lives depend on the outcome. That Nadal dismantled Federer at Roland Garros will be a factor (even though that was clay and this is grass). Nadal will need a superior serving day; Federer will need to apply his best grass-court game; they’re both capable of doing so. In the end, Nadal seems to have been the slightly more impressive player through the fortnight. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6, 6-4.
Pete: Federer-Nadal XL with the winner most likely having to face Djokovic for the Wimbledon title…. The Golden Years in men’s tennis continue to be lived before our eyes. Both players head into the semifinal with solid match play under their belts, including surviving first-set tussles in their quarterfinal matches. This will be the first time in this series at Wimbledon that the winner still must play another match to win the title. The recent inroads that Federer has made and discovered against Nadal in their matches the last couple of years will be the deciding difference. Federer in 4: 7-5, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4).
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (23) Roberto Bautista Agut
Ricky: Djokovic has not run into any trouble since the first two sets against Hubert Hurkacz in round two, a match he won 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-4. Something similar may be in the cards against Bautista Agut, who almost always plays Djokovic tough. The Spaniard is 3-7 lifetime in the head-to-head series (better than most!) and he is actually 2-0 against the Serb this season–with victories from a set down in Doha and Miami. Djokovic, though, completely destroyed Ugo Humbert and David Goffin in his last two matches, and his urgency level will obviously be higher than it was in Doha or Miami. The world No. 1 will be too good on Friday, but this should be an incredibly high-level match. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2.
Cheryl: I don’t know when RBA became a fixture in the latter stages of tournaments, but here he is again. He made the quarters in Australia and now he’s in the semis at Wimbledon. Interestingly, RBA has been a tricky matchup of late for Djokovic. The Spaniard has, in fact, won his last two meetings with the Serb. Of course, this is a Grand Slam–and one at which Djokovic especially excels. He is, after all, the defending champion. Djokovic puts up his best tennis in the latter stages of events, so RBA is going to have his hands full. The world No. 1 completely dismantled Goffin in the quarters and he looks like he’s now on a bit of tear. RBA is a fighter and he won’t give in easily. I doubt if Djokovic will win in straight sets, but as it’s a slam I have to think that Djokovic is going to pull it out. Djokovic in 5: 5-7, 6-3, 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.
Pete: Interestingly enough, Bautista Agut has won the last two meetings and they both happened to have taken place this year. That said, Djokovic has been rolling at Wimbledon–losing just 19 games in eight sets since dropping the second set to Hurkacz in the third round. Similary, Nadal arrives at the semifinals having lost just one set at the Championships. Unfortunately for Bautista Agut, he will face Djokovic when the Serb is in “deep in a major mode” rather than in ATP tournament mode. As a result, the Serb will continue to dazzle and advance to the final for the sixth time. Djokovic in 3: 6-4, 6-3, 6-4.
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If Rafa manages to win this it would be completely Epic given his draw.
Dont really care whom Rafa faces in the final, just want him to beat Roger, then win the title on Sunday ….
I watched Rafa’s match again last night. I could not watch the end of the first set. So I wanted to see when Rafa was broken and how he won the set. I think we are sometimes too critical of Rafa because he was hitting some great shots. It’s true that his serve let him down. But Querrey also raised his level of play. I thought Rafa breaking right back was very important. I think overall it was amazing to see him break Querrey so many times. We all know his tough it is to break big servers.
It’s interesting how a match looks when you watch the replay as opposed to watching it live. I thought Rafa basically took over after the first set, while I think Querrey was a bit deflated losing the first set that way. To see Rafa dominate a big server like that was very impressive.
Rafa could not be in a better place now. He has had two great victories over big serving guys. The win over Kyrgios especially winning row TB’s, seems to have propelled Rafa forward with a good deal of momentum. He is healthy and playing some of his best grass court tennis. I am just trying to stay in the moment and enjoy watching him. Only a few months ago things looked very different. It’s been quite a ride!
I see Rafa being very focused and determined. This semifinal match could turn on a few intangibles. Rafa will have to serve like his life depends on it. Any mental lapses could spell disaster.
I think we are fortunate to see Rafa and Fed at Wimbledon again. This could be the last time they will play there. So it is a moment to be appreciated and enjoyed. There is not much else left to analyze.
I just want to see Rafa get this win and be in another Wimbledon final. That would be special. I expect Novak to get to the final. Rafa and Fed will have to battle it out to meet him there.
NNY,great analysis! And we should really keep in mind that Rafa was physically and mentally in a very bad place until May! Whatever happened afterwards is a small miracle, and we should appreciate the last few weeks – no matter who will win tomorrow. A win over Fed at Wimby would be very special indeed. But losing to one of the greatest grass court players and overall GOAT candidate would be no shame.
Alison,
Amen!
😘
It’s almost scary for Rafafans (and Fedfans, too) but all but one of the ESPN tennis experts have picked Rafa over Fed! As I said above: this doesn’t mean at all that Rafa will really pull it off. But it’s a great acknowledgment of how well he has played so far. Rafa could’ve left a lot of time and energy oncourt because of the very difficult draw, but unlike last year where Rafa played a gruelling five-setter against Delpo before falling in another heartbreaking five-setter to Novak, Rafa should be physically and mentally fresh. Fed should be equally fresh of course. I really wonder if the age gap between them will finally become more prevalent. Fed said, that he won’t smart over last month’s lose in Paris and that he will try to remember instead his 2017 AO final win. He’s right of course – but he is also 2 1/2 years older now.
If we are strictly talking pure tennis, I totally understand the inclination to pick Fed in this match. While people picking Fed are in the minority, it’s not like there there aren’t logical reasons behind picking Fed. There is no denying that Fed found a winning formula against Rafa on non-clay surfaces. And after he barely beat Rafa at AO using that formula, he clearly had the necessary confidence to execute that formula to perfection for the next 3 hard court matches they played.
But unfortunately for Fed, there is a very big difference between being 35 and 1/2 years old, coming off of an extended break, and being 38 years old without any extended break. We have to remember that there is a reason no man has EVER won a major at Fed’s age, at least not since the wood-racquet era. I mean, has a guy Fed’s age ever even made a final?? I know that Connors had his 1991 US Open run, but guess where it ended- the Semifinals. 🤷♂️
If Fed could serve absolutely lights out, then of course he will have a shot. But I just don’t think it would be enough, especially given the slower court speed. The low bounce helps, but not enough. Ultimately, I’ve just seen too much of a natural decline from Fed from the back of the court over the last couple years. As Lucky has pointed out, his backhand had been a little too weak overall the past year or so. It’s still looked good at times, but not with enough consistency. For much of 2017, he had so much confidence in his backhand, and it really made a huge difference for him against Rafa. Sure, the lower bounce and less spin on grass should make Rafa’s CCFH slightly easier to deal with, but not enough.
Obviously just like any prediction, I could be wrong. Ultimately it just comes down to the areas where Fed has noticeably declined being too much for him to overcome. I’ll say it once more- there are good reasons why no man has ever won a major, or maybe even made a final, in the modern game. I just don’t believe Fed is any different from all the other all-time greats. He is still a normal human like all the others. He’s surely more talented, and has done better in old tennis age, than all the past all-time greats. But talent and tennis IQ are not enough, especially in this day and age. Rafa is considerably younger and playing at a very high level. It is still HIS time. Fed’s has passed, and he will be retired in about one year from now. Still looking forward to it!
Rafa in 4.
Kevin, it’s not only about Fed but also about Rafa.
The Rafa we’re seeing now is not the Rafa we saw in 2017 on the non clay surfaces. Rafa is serving much better now, he’s more confident after his FO win. He’s also more aggressive on grass and he’s physically fresh compared to last year when he had a five hours match in the QF vs Delpo. In fact Rafa has successfully shortened points on grass, when last year he’s still into some long baseline rallies.
This is not 2017 but it’s 2019; Fed’s BH during 2017 could counter effectively Rafa’s FH on non clay surfaces, I’m sure on grass with the low irregular bounces, his BH then would be more lethal. However, that BH disappeared, his BH is now error prone, what more the Rafa now is not the Rafa of 2017, he’s an improved version now, after overcoming his injury and mental issues of his clay season.
Anonymous- I agree!
Djokovic have a problem. His draw was too easy. He had no opponents. When this happen, the player reach fresh to the final but his game is in and low level. If Nadal wins quicly tomorrow, he’ll reach to the final, fresh and playing at a high level.
Oh Lord, have mercy!! That match is already a dud!! The only thing Agut is good at in this match is making UFEs!!! Sigh!!!
Since when most people are predicting Rafa to beat Fed!!! I’m not sure if that’s a good thing……I feel VERY nervous! Lol!
almost every media member here has Nadal
Ricky, yes, on grass?!!! I mean more were predicting Roger for the win at RG?!! Lol!! This is really making me nervous, for real!
Novak’s level has really dropped here, RBA right on top
Yeah, for how long? Novak is keeping the ball in play, Agut is making too many UFEs esp on the important points! He was 15:40 and should have broken for an insurance break, bcos Novak will do his damness to break him esp if serving for set.
At least he is giving Novak a bit of a fight.