Wimbledon R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Muller, Cilic vs. Bautista Agut

Arguably the best annual day of tennis will take place on Monday, when all 32 remaining singles players–men and women–will be in action. Among those on the schedule are Rafael Nadal, Gilles Muller, Marin Cilic, and Roberto Bautista Agut.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (16) Gilles Muller

Nadal and Muller will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers when they battle for a spot in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Monday. The head-to-head series stands at 4-1 in favor of Nadal, but his lone loss to Muller has come at none other than the All-England Club. That is where the left-handed Luxembourgian upset the Spaniard 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 during second-round action in 2005, not long after Nadal had captured his first of now 10 French Open titles. Since then, however, Nadal has won three in a row against Muller–including a measure of 7-6(6), 7-6(5), 6-0 revenge at Wimbledon in 2011. The two veterans most recently faced each other at the 2016 Indian Wells Masters, with Nadal getting the job done 6-2, 2-6, 6-4.

This, of course, is not the same Nadal whom Muller toppled in 2005. The 15-time Grand Slam champion is now a two-time Wimbledon winner, having triumphed at the AELTC in 2008 and 2010. Although Nadal has struggled on grass in recent seasons, he is armed with a clean bill of health this time around and is coming off a dominant performance at Roland Garros. So far this fortnight he has defeated John Millman, Donald Young, and Karen Khachanov without dropping a set. Muller punched his ticket to the second week by beating Marton Fucsovics, Lukas Rosol (9-7 in the fifth), and Aljaz Bedene. The world No. 26 is a stellar 26-12 this season with the first two titles of his career–including on the grass courts of ‘s-Hertogenbosch. Muller may be a particularly dangerous opponent on this surface, but Nadal’s current form is such that the players who have a legitimate shot to beat him at Wimbledon this year can be counted on one hand. And that list should not include anyone other than Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Marin Cilic.

Pick: Nadal in 4

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(18) Roberto Bautista Agut vs. (7) Marin Cilic

Cilic already registers at a respectable 11th in the race to the World Tour Finals and his favorite time of year–Wimbledon through the U.S. Open–is just now beginning. The 2014 U.S. Open champion and current Cincinnati title holder has built on a strong clay-court swing with a semifinal showing in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, a runner-up performance at Queen’s Club, and a trio of straight-set victories at the All-England Club (over Philipp Kohlschreiber, Florian Mayer, and Steve Johnson).

Up next for Cilic on Monday is a fourth career showdown against Bautista Agut, who trails the head-to-head series 2-1 but got the best of their most recent encounter via a 6-4, 7-6(5), 7-5 decision at the 2016 Australian Open. The Spaniard, who comes in 13 spots behind Cilic at No. 19 in the world, earned a place in the last 16 by taking out Andreas Haider-Maurer, Peter Gojowyczk, and Kei Nishikori. Bautista Agut is an outstanding 29-11 in 2017, but as usual he has struggled against upper-echelon opponents. Cilic certainly qualifies as such right now–especially on grass.

Pick: Cilic in 3

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71 Comments on Wimbledon R4 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Muller, Cilic vs. Bautista Agut

  1. I see you’ve changed your pre-tournament pick for this match (if I remember correctly). That makes sense given Nadal’s form. He commented yesterday that the court conditions (dry, hard) suit him especially well. Muller is playing great and I wouldn’t be shocked to see an upset, but I agree: Rafa in 4.

  2. Rafa in 3, possibly 4. As this tournament goes on, I am liking Rafa’s chances more and more, and Fed’s less and less. Now that we see all the player’s respective levels, I think it will be really difficult for Federer to get through Dimitrov, Raonic, Djokovic, AND Nadal/Murray. I had assumed that most, if not all of those players would not be playing as well as they have so far. Plus, Fed is apparently nursing a cold, so that obviously won’t help matters. I think Rafa looks really great, and I personally don’t see him not making the final. If the big 4 all make the semis, I think that they all have approximately an equal shot at winning it all. However, Fed and Rafa definitely have tougher 4th Round and Quarterfinal opponents than Djokovic and Murray, imo. If Federer hopes to beat Rafa in a potential final, it would certainly be in his best interest for Raonic or Djokovic to lose before he would face them. Anyway, I think that you Rafa fans should feel pretty damn good about your boy’s chances with the way he’s playing! 🙂

    • Yeah Kevin, Rafa looked the best out of the big four, all through their three rounds so far. Murray looked the worst, esp against Foggy. Both Fed and Djoko didn’t look sharp in their respective R3 matches. Of course things may change come the second week, I think Dimi and Muller are tougher opponents than Paire and Manarino; and Cilic and Raonic would be even worse than any of Querrey/Anderson and Thiem/Berdych.

      Berdych has quietly moved through the draw unnoticed but I think he can beat Thiem on grass; neither of whom will give Djoko problem in the QF, where Djoko will get there without much problem with his R4 opponent I think.

      I think both Murray and Djoko will be in the SF, Rafa and Fed I’m not so sure.

  3. Nadal in 3

    Nadal hasn’t dropped a set since Rome. Not sure he knows how to at the moment. Muller has taken sets when Nadal was a teenager and in 2016 during the worst form of his career.
    Muller has the game to break his streak but i’ll stick with 3:0.

    Cilic in 5

    RBA beat Cilic in straight sets in the Australian Open and both are solid grass court players. This match will be close but I give a slight edge to Cilic.

    • Benny, hoping? I’ll say Rafa in three and Cilic in four. Rafa is too good for Muller imo. Agut is good enough to take a set from not so sharp Cilic.

      • Not so sharp Cilic? Cilic hasn’t dropped a set against three extremely high quality opponents. Kohlschreiber is probably one of the toughest unseeded first rounders at slams and Cilic destroyed him, Mayer won in Halle last year and beat Paire and Pouille in Halle this year, and Johnson won in Nottingham last year and made the fourth round of Wimby last year. Yeah many of his sets have been close but it’s grass. All the top guys have had close sets. Cilic is so sharp it’s not even funny. And the dude is Iocked in. From what I’ve seen from Cilic, I am still extremely confident with him going to the final as I picked at the start of the tournament.

        • Benny, what had Kohl done so far this grass season? Don’t try and talk about what he had done in the past, it’s the present that matters. F Mayer is also not the player he was one year ago when he won Halle. Johnson has a big serve but his ROS isn’t good enough to handle big serves. I notice that American players can serve big but they’re not good at returning serves. It’s the good returning of serves plus the good to great serving that can let you get a win over a player like Cilic on grass.

      • Also I’m not hoping. The conditions Monday are apparently supposed to be wetter than they have been which I think will help Muller out. Also the guy is brimming with confidence on this surface and has absolutely nothing to lose as he is in his first Wimby round of 16. This leads me to believe Muller will serve fantastic in this match. And as well as Nadal is playing, he has lost early at Wimby to big servers or serve and volleyers so many times in recent years. I doubt that will be out of Nadal’s mind. Maybe he will prove me wrong and props to him if he does, but I stilll think my pick of Muller in the quarters at the start of the tourney is gonna happen, even if Nadal hasn’t dropped a set so far.

        • Benny, you keep talking about the past but this is now! Do you see a Rafa beaming with confidence, fit and healthy, in the past from 2012-2015 at Wimbledon? Did you see an aggressive Rafa during those years at Wimbledon?

          What I saw was a Rafa having health issues (knee, back) and/or confidence issues during those years, playing a grinding style even on grass, doomed to fail.

          Muller may serve very well but his lefty serve is not going to hurt Rafa, a fellow lefty, that much than against a righty. We’ll see how things go, I’ll say Rafa will win the R4 match.

          • You make solid points. Don’t necessarily agree w them all but I understand what you are saying. One thing I will say is that Muller has the serve to either side of the box on both sides. I don’t think Nadal will get back more of Muller’s serves because he’s a lefty. He may get more back than most because he’s just so fast. But still Muller’s serve down the T on the deuce is to Rafa forehand but has insane curve on it. And his serve to Rafa backhand on both ad and deuce are the biggest and most powerful serves for him so he will probably go to those a lot. I think Muller’s serve will trick up Nadal more than most think BUT that’s just what I think and just my opinion.

          • Benny, Muller doesn’t have a great ROS and you’re forgetting that Rafa also serves well. I’ll say that Rafa will make it difficult for Muller to serve well by returning as many as possible Muller’s big serves with varying return positions.

            Rafa won’t be beaten just because his opponent has a great serve, when Rafa is fit and healthy and playing well. You need more than a big serve to beat a Rafa who’s playing well.

        • I have to add that I feel Cilic played better at Queens than at Wimbledon, perhaps the grass courts at Queens were quicker grass courts than those at Wimbledon?

          Cilic like quick surfaces. I was impressed with him beating Isner in straight sets on fast grass of Queens; he’s also playing well to beat Muller in three sets despite him getting frustrated when he couldn’t break Muller’s serves. He had MP vs Feli in the final but faltered and then lost.

          I also feel that Muller’s serves were tougher to return at Queens than at Wimbledon due to Queens’ quicker surface.

        • you were sure about Stan beating Rafa in RG final..you keep saying you dont hope for Rafa to trip but you surely do given your posts 🙂

          I am not saying Muller cant beat Rafa..tomorrow will tell that..but it is so obvious here there are 2 Fed fan posters..Benny and Joe Smith who will never lose an opportunity to try to talk up Rafas opponent more than Rafa..its very very visible and no amount of dressing up can escape that.

          • Certainly no more than Rafa fans like Lucky talk up Rafa as against his opponents. In this case, I’ve called Rafa in 4, which I think is quite reasonable. A quick test: when is the last time Lucky called for Rafa to lose?

          • Joe, on clay I’ll never call for Rafa to lose, even though he did lose to Thiem at Rome. On grass at Wimbledon, I was cautious the first few rounds, esp vs Khachanov but after seeing how well he played in the first two rounds and his knees holding up, I’m confident that Rafa will play well to win.

            Joe, you’re one of those who big up Fed, even vs Rafa on clay, and yet you’re here pointing fingers at the Rafa fans? Isn’t it ironical? As Sanju mentioned earlier, you’re one of the two Fed fans (the other being Benny) who always big up Rafa’s opponents, hoping for Rafa to lose.

          • Nah I think I may be talking him up because I’m a Muller fan LOL. Muller is my favorite player behind Fed and Stan. I don’t talk up Rafa’s opponents because I don’t like Rafa and I am an annoying old Fed fan. I think most people on here can agree that I typically am pretty happy for Rafa when he wins big matches and don’t pick against him or talk up his opponents in every match. Example: if he makes semis, Rafa will likely win. Do I think he will get there? No not personally. But if he gets there I think he will be in good enough form that I can’t think of any opponents that will be there that could beat him. Not even the home guy Andy.

          • Maybe it’s the fact that I am a big fan of Muller or maybe just because I have watched him so much lately. It’s like how all the Rafans are talking about and analyzing all the positive aspects of his game. It makes sense because they are great fans of him and watch him throughout this event. I have personally watched each match of Muller and what I’ve seen from him has impressed me, even in the Rosol match. Just because I am making a case for Muller doesn’t mean I’m talking up Rafa’s opponents because I’m a Fed fan. That honestly annoys me a lot when that is assumed because I truly admire and respect the shit out of Rafa and his game and I had the hugest freaking smile when he won his tenth French even though I was rooting for Stan (WHO I ONLY ROOTED FOR BECAUSE HE IS MY FAVORITE BEHIND FED). Damn I think I just need to rethink my favorite players list. This good lucky? 1) Rafa 2) Marc Lopez 3) Toni Nadal

          • Benny, you can’t deny it when you’re always doubting Rafa and bigging up his opponents. It’s like you keep repeating it time after time, about how poorly Rafa played on grass for the past few years but you didn’t take into considerations the state of his body, his health and fitness; and why he couldn’t win on grass during all those years after doing well in the five years, prior to that.

            You have to look at the form of the player (in this case Rafa); after his first round match here, his words about his knees were reassuring,that coupled with his good aggressive play and good results, make us believe he can handle most of his opponents, including the big servers.

            Rafa himself said that as long as he can play at such a high level he is confident he can beat his opponent (in this case Muller).

          • I know but usually Rafa isn’t as confident when playing big servers on this surface. Maybe I’m wrong maybe he I’ll go out and play super confident and destroy Muller or something. I don’t think it’ll happen but we’ll see.

          • Also I don’t always big up Rafa opponent. Just “bigging up” Muller maybe to explain why I think he will win. I don’t always do that though. For crying out loud I thought Khachanov would take Nadal to five at start of tournament but once they played I had Rafa in three.

          • I wasn’t sure about Stan it was just my pick lol. Problem is if I pick an upset and it’s with Rafa losing I get accused of hating Rafa and wanting him to lose and worshipping Fed. I picked freaking Gulbis to beat Djokovic I generally go bold as it is but no one was getting mad at me bout that lol. Also I picked Stan to lose to Rafa in the Rome or Madrid final before the tournament (can’t remember which event exactly). My French Open pick was because Stan hadn’t lost a slam final before and I thought Rafa might falter with a tenth RG on the line. I was wrong but I had reasons why I thought he would win. If it was Stan’s first slam final, I wouldn’t have picked him. I’m doing the same with this match with Muller. I feel like I’ve given quite a few reasons for why I think it will happen. I’m entitled to the opinion I don’t get why you guys have to get so triggered by my reasoning just because you’re Rafans. I didn’t get triggered by people saying Mischa would test Fed which they did even though I knew that would be for sure straight sets because Fed totally owns the H2H with Mischa and just won Halle lol. My pick is totally sensible. For crying out loud, SPORTS ILLUSTRATED picked Muller to make the freaking semis. It’s just so hard for you to deal with it when I pick against Rafa lucky. And don’t respond by saying I always do because I don’t. There isn’t anyone I always pick against. Not even Tomic

          • Benny, we the Rafa fans are more sensible concerning Fed,certainly we won’t be thinking that Mischa would beat Fed, on Fed’s fave surface. It’s unlike some Fed fans, with total disrespect for Rafa, on Rafa’s fave surface, even after watching how well he played on his fave surface, such is the difference!

            You may not be aware about your biased views on Rafa, but we certainly could sense it, hence it’s not only me, but even Sanju, who hardly posts here, could sense it too.

            You do make us feel that you’re always hoping someone would beat Rafa, anywhere he plays. Sorry, this is the kind of feeling you’re giving us.

          • I apologize. It’s just that my favorite players literally are Fed Stan and Muller/Kyrgios probably tied for third. Probably some bias in my picks for this reason but I’m truly sorry I give off the vibe that I want Rafa to lose all his matches. I actually wanted him to win behind Stan at the French. La Decima was insane to see and Rafa was a total beast and all I could do was laugh at how good he was in that final. Rafa is one of the most fair and humble and badass competitors I don’t wish for him to lose a lot. It’s just kind of a bad coincidence that Stan is my favorite player behind Fed and Muller behind Stan. So I picked those two probably with some bias and more explanation than usual for why I thought they would win and “bigging them up” I guess because they’re two of my favorites. I think this Muller pick isn’t a stupid pick though. Maybe Stan pick was kind of dumb and I picked it because I had a feeling he would keep that undefeated slam final streak going and shock everyone. But there is also some bias in people saying they think Nadal will storm to title with no problems. I know you aren’t one of them but you get my point. Anyways this is Muller’s favorite surface and Rafa usually has trouble with big servers at Wimbledon. I know that was in the past but you can’t totally disregard that his recent Wimbledon losses have come against big servers like Rosol, Brown, and Kyrgios. And Rafa hasn’t faced a huge serve or as quality opponent as Muller so far this tournament so I think it’s kind of foolish to say Rafa ripping through Millman, Young, and Khachanov makes him obvious favorite to cruise past Muller. Rafa won’t be able to play that aggressive game as much on the return at least. Gilles won’t let him. And I know you will say I’m wrong and that Rafa will handle Muller serve well and dictate play even on Muller’s serve but I’m sorry I just don’t think that will happen. Props to Rafa if he proves me wrong. But I think these are actual legit reasons to pick Muller. I think the Stan pick at the French was a more stupid reason and just a feeling that he would continue being undefeated at grand slam finals but a reason nonetheless and not just loserishly hoping Rafa loses so Fed has the lead in slam count.

        • Benny, when did I say Rafa would cruise past Muller with his aggressive play? Please don’t make things up!

          I simply said Rafa to win in three sets, that’s all. Rafa will probably have a 6-4,7-5,6-4(or 7-6) kind of score. As I said, Rafa has a good ROS but Muller doesn’t so I think its more likely that Rafa breaks Muller’s serve than the other way around.

          Do note that Rafa usually has no problem with S&V type of players, also it’s not like Rafa hasn’t played against Muller before. It’s unlike Khachanov, whom Rafa met for the first time, and Khachanov was a big server cum hard hitter, the kind of players who could trouble Rafa on grass.

          Muller has a great serve but he’s not a hard hitter, Rafa can handle net rusher better than hard hitter from the baseline.

          • In my opinion 6-4 7-5 6-4 is cruising on grass. But I get what you’re saying. We’ll see. Let’s just hope it’s an entertaining match!! ?

  4. I just think Nadal is loving the game and challenge right now. When he’s in this frame of mind its very difficult for opponents to win a set against him.

    I give Cilic an edge over RBA because he has the better serve on grass IMO, otherwise there is little separating them.

  5. The grass conditions will make a difference, definitely to the score, possibly to the outcome. As I said, Rafa has commented already the dry conditions suit him, “obviously”. Wetter conditions will not be to his liking, and will help both Muller and/or Cilic (I don’t think RBA would trouble Nadal should they meet).

    On the other side, I saw highlights of Novak and he looked very impressive over Gulbis. Roger had shades of great play, but maybe not consistently so. Perhaps Benny is right and he has a cold; if so, a couple days rest will do him good.

    • Novak was surely not very impressive against Gulbis..he was good but def not very impressive..He was much better than what we saw of him past few months..If he meets Fed in semi..watch out..that could be his turnaround match

      • That’s an interesting take on Novak’s performance @Sanju. I have not watched any of his matches but have been reading various pundits’ takes and most have been gushing about Novak’s performance against Gulbis. To the extent I have been left with the distinct impression Novak is back to his old devastating self.

      • I happen to agree with Sanju. Djoko not that impressive, more like Gulbis going for broke all the time and either over hitting or hitting into the net. Djoko just did what he did best, stayed in the rallies, did all the retrievings and forced errors out of Gulbis.

        Gulbis was ahead in the first set but couldn’t hold on to the break of serve and Djoko came back from behind to snatch the first set. The third set was a little bit more competitive but that’s not enough for Gulbis to win a set.

        If Djoko is meeting Fed in the SF, I’ll give Djoko a slight advantage, as I feel Fed wasn’t hitting his shots too well so far; I think Gulbis, despite his go for broke style, was playing better tennis than Fed’s R2 opponent and Mischa. Mischa playing the S&V game won’t be able to beat Fed even when Fed wasn’t playing that well. Fed’s R2 opponent was good for one set, forced a TB but once he lost the first set, he came back down to earth.

        • I agree that Novak really did not have to do that much against Gulbis. For a while it seemed as though Gulbis would actually compete in that match. But Novak broke back in the first set and Gulbis did not seem to want to fight. It’s like he lost interest. Novak didn’t have to do anything special to win that match. It showed the problem with Gulbis. He just isn’t willing to make the effort. He doesn’t want it enough. That sums up just whole career. With his natural talent, he should hdve been in the top five competing for slam wins. But he doesn’t have the desire to work hard and be disciplined. He’s thrown away what could have been a promising career.

          At this point, it’s hard to gauge where the top four are now. They haven’t faced opponents who could challenge them. Now the competition will get tougher and we will have a better idea of where they are at.

      • I’m just hoping that Novak makes it to face Federer and vice versa. Hoping it will be a good level testing and raising experience for both of them. I love Fedole’s ?

        RITB 3.0

        The Southern Jura Massiff is the location of TDF stage 8 today and it’s a beautiful area but the course itself is causing all kinds of havoc, crashes, and there’s some wet roads, if you can call them roads…more like cow-paths. Could be the best stage of the entire TDF! Team Ag2r are based in this area in France and have been animating the race. Mountain after mountain after mountain day.

          • I am following it @Ratcliff! Bertie has been talking up his chances about this stage saying he can limit his losses here.

            I am not too hopeful to be honest……………..he has lost his edge.

          • well, no. Contador and Quintana touched wheels —guess you could say, fortunately they were going slowly uphill, and crashed. Last I saw of Contador he was bleeding pretty bad from and elbow. But both Quintana and Contador and still racing. Geraint Thomas crashed out of the tour.

            Sky still have so many super domestiques: Kwiatkowski, Landa, Nieve, Henao….

  6. Wimbledon scheduling every Andy Murray match and Fed match on centre court is very unfair to Rafa and Novak.. Arent the CC/Court 1 supposed to rotate between the top 4? I agree Fed Dimitrov surely is centre court match material..but Andy/Paire? Andy is getting too much home advantage…Also azarenka..halep is classic centre court match..why are they scheduled on court 2..to accomodate Konta?

    • It is clear the Brits are giving Centre Court advantage to Muzza on account of him being a Brit. Apparently this is normal. It has also been obvious for a long while, even before he accumulated his current impressive number of Wimby titles, that the Brits always give Fed Centre Court advantage. This I do not understand. Rafa has more titles at Roland Garros than Fed has at Wimby but the French do not give Rafa the same Cente Court consideration that e Brits give to Fed.

      I can totally understand Muzza being given Centre Court advantage, always, he is the home boy. Fed? He should get the same treatment the others get.

      Fed is a great player, he does not need a leg-up in any way shape or form. It is actually an insult to his stature. He CAN compete without the added obvious padding………

          • That is not my point Gussie, my point is they do not assign him outside of Centre Court regularly like they do everybody else. Case in point, Fed has yet to play outside Centre Cour this year nor is he likely to now that we are in the second week.

          • Fed’s played all of four matches outside CC in the past 8 years? Yup, that’s bias! Otoh, I don’t think CC vs court 1 makes a difference for Rafa. In fact CC grass is apt to be more slippery since it’s seen less use. Also Rafa is way better off without a roof. The roof gives an advantage to big servers, plus Rafa’s never been a great indoor player. If it rains better he should wait it out – he’s better at that than most of his opponents.

          • Ramara, I agree. I don’t think at all that there’s a disadvantage for Rafa playing on another court – especially when there are rain delay. But it’s definitely an advantage for Roger to play on CC when the roof is closed

  7. I expect this one to be tough for Rafa mainly because big serving opponents make Rafa nervous! It takes one lousy game from Rafa to lose a set and that puts a pressure on Rafa. However, if Rafa serves well the way he is playing right now and his high confidence he will beat Muller in 3! Hope this happens because then Rafa can strive on his confidence to convincingly beat Cilic in the next tound…

    Vamos Champ!

  8. Rafa has been playing the best of the big four so far, in this sort of form I doubt Muller will cause too many problems. Djoko and Murray are still playing around their RG level so far, Djoko I think might be slightly higher, it’s hard to tell from his first three opponents. Both should make their semis (although Querry could spoil the party), the draws aren’t difficult. I think Federer has been playing mediocre tennis so far. He looks like he’s just trying to coast past early opponents, I don’t think he’s playing with that same aggressive freedom that he had earlier in the year. He needs the AO mindset here, if he thinks about Wimbledon as this big golden opportunity he’ll probably play too conservatively, which will get him into trouble. He did beat Zverev without too much fuss, but I watched the 2nd and 3rd sets and Zverev looked far too passive. The draw gets significantly harder from here, too, Dimi usually struggles vs Fed but looks to be in form, and Raonic can definitely cause problems. Nadal’s draw is the 2nd hardest of the four, just because of Cilic. If RBA somehow gets past Cilic then that’ll be good news for Rafa, but I’m not picking it.

    Nadal in 3, Cilic in 4

    • Good take TWD. Both Murray and Djoko should make the SF, unless they really play like crap. I agree about Dimi, that he’s in good form and looks determined, after his narrow loss at the AO. Fed certainly has to raise his level this time, the H2H doesn’t matter, if you’re not playing well but your opponent is.

      Dimi seems more aggressive these days, but, he has to overcome those nerves during tight crucial moments – he has been losing far too many close final sets these days. I think it will be a battle between Fed and Dimi and Fed to win this one based on his big match experiences. I doubt it will be a straight set win.

      As for Rafa’s draw, it’s not getting any easier – Muller, then probably Cilic, Murray and then Fed/Djoko/Raonic. He has to serve and return well esp against big servers!

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