Wimbledon R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Khachanov, Paire vs. Janowicz

Karen Khachanov will be trying to ride his serve-forehand combination to a Wimbledon upset of Rafael Nadal on Friday. Benoit Paire and Jerzy Janowicz are also aiming for a place in the second week.

(4) Rafael Nadal vs. (30) Karen Khachanov

Nadal and Khachanov will be going head-to-head for the first time in their careers when they collide in the Wimbledon third round on Friday. A lot of “firsts” have been coming for Khachanov of late, who is really starting to announce himself as a force to be reckoned with on the ATP Tour. The 21-year-old Russian is into the top 40 for the first time (broke in last month, currently at a career-high 34th), reached the French Open fourth round in his first main-draw appearance at that slam, and now finds himself in the last 32 of his first main-draw showing at the All-England Club. Khachanov fought hard to hold off Andrey Kuznetsov in five sets and Thiago Monteiro in four earlier in the week.

It’s safe to say the competition level ratchets up dramatically in the form of Nadal, who is 45-6 this season with four titles–including his 10th French Open triumph. The second-ranked Spaniard did not play any grass-court warmup events, but it’s also safe to say he knew what he was doing while making that schedule decision. Showing no grass-court rust, Nadal hammered John Millman 6-1, 6-3, 6-2 on Monday before beating Donald Young 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 in round two. Khachanov is more of the prototypical big hitter who can trouble the 15-time major champion on this surface, but grass may be his least favorite court right now because he has less time to set up for his forehand and is frequently forced to hit it out of his strike zone. This is an intriguing matchup on paper, but in reality it should be one-way traffic.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11 games or fewer

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Benoit Paire vs. Jerzy Janowicz

Speaking of intriguing matchups, Paire vs. Janowicz pits two of the game’s most colorful characters against each other–and that is not where the similarities end. When healthy, they unofficially lead the tour in drop-shots attempted. They also possess some of the most ferocious weapons in the game, highlighted by Paire’s backhand and Janowicz’s serve and forehand.

Unfortunately for Janowicz and for tennis, he basically disappeared from the main tour after reaching the Wimbledon semifinals in 2013 and climbing to No. 14 in the world. The 6’8” Pole is finally making his way back from various problems and will be well inside the top 100 if he wins on Friday (currently 141st). So far this fortnight he has picked up four-set victories over Denis Shapovalov and 2016 quarterfinalist Lucas Pouille. Paire punched his ticket to the last 32 by beating Rogerio Dutra Silva in four and fellow Frenchman Pierre-Hugues Herbert in straights. These two veterans recently faced each other in last month’s Stuttgart quarterfinals, with Paire prevailing 6-1, 7-6(4) for his first ATP-level win over Janowicz compared to two losses. The world No. 46 is a decent 8-6 lifetime at this event, but he has only one victory over an opponent ranked better than 52nd in the world. On this surface, a confident Janowicz is arguably a top-10 talent. He just avenged a recent grass-court loss to Shapovalov and may do the same against Paire.

Pick: Janowicz in 4

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36 Comments on Wimbledon R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Khachanov, Paire vs. Janowicz

  1. NNY, since you are a long time resident here: whatever happened to Hawkeye and Mary? Did they move on to greener pastures? Or have they been moved? 😉

    • Littlefoot,

      The last time Hawkeye posted he said that he was sorry for offending anyone. There were some words exchanged and he then said he would take some time to kind of rethink where he’s at. I am paraphrasing here.

      I don’t know about Mary. We have had our issues in the past. But she has come and gone from time to time. But with Hawkeye, he’s always been a regular. They have posted on tennis-x under various user names.
      Hawkeye used to joke every time Sean Randall would kick him off the site. They may be over there. There were some misunderstandings between Hawkeye and a few of us. But he would not usually stop posting.

      That’s about as much info as I can give you.

      • Thanks, NNY. Yes, I know there were some issues between posters, and some of them go off once in a while. I normally come here for the slams in order to enjoy everybody’s expertise. But you are right: Hawkeye was a regular all the time. Therefore I started to notice his absence after a couple of days.
        Ok, I hope everybody is fine – let’s enjoy the match 🙂

  2. What. Is. Going. On? I thought this guy was a big server, Rafa’s broken him twice already in this set……….

  3. Rafa pretty much owned Khachanov in that first set. He had a chance to get the early break, but Khachanov fought and held.

    Espn is now showing a women’s match, so I am watching Rafa on the espn app.

  4. Khachanov takes his hand off the racquet on the forehand which is a major technical flaw IMO. He’s no Marat Safin or Yevgeny Kafelnikov. Top 10-20 at best.

  5. Khachanov is trying to hang in there and avoid another early break, which would mean the match at this point. He’s fighting in every service game.

  6. Rafa wasting so many BP chances! Khachanov no doubt serves very big serves to save them but still, there are chances but Rafa couldn’t take them. Khachanov is now left with his big serves to help him stay with Rafa in this third set, Rafa has to take his chances to break serve to get a straight forward win.

  7. why diddn’t rafa challenge that tight call when karen was serving at 2-2?? the ball was in and he would have broken and been up 4-2..

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