Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will continue their Wimbledon campaigns on Saturday. Next up for Nadal is Mikhail Kukushkin, while Federer is going up against Santiago Giraldo.
Mikhail Kukushkin vs. (2) Rafael Nadal
With the early-round Wimbledon draw having suddenly opened up for Nadal, fans of the world No. 1 will not be quite as on edge as they were for opening tests against Martin Klizan and Lukas Rosol. Kukushkin–not Ivo Karlovic–awaits Nadal on Saturday and either Nick Kyrgios or Jiri Vesely–not Richard Gasquet or Gael Monfils–is a possible fourth-round opponent. Still, the two-time champion of this event will not have any kind of dip in focus after dropping first sets to both Klizan and Rosol. Nadal recovered both times and he is now 43-7 for the season, which includes a ninth career French Open title just a few weeks ago.
This will be the third career meeting between these to players. Both of their previous encounters have gone Nadal’s way in routine fashion; he prevailed 6-2, 6-3 four years ago in Bangkok and 6-1, 6-1 on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo in 2012. Kukushkin earned his place in the last 32 by taking out both Dudi Sela and Frank Dancevic in easy straight sets. Still, the 63rd-ranked Kazakh is a mere 8-18 at the ATP level this season. This is obviously a massive step up in competition and Kukushkin does not have the huge-hitting game like, for example, Rosol that has been known to trouble Nadal.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 11-14 games
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Santiago Giraldo vs. (4) Roger Federer
Federer and Giraldo will be going head-to-head for the second time in their careers on Saturday. Their only previous meeting came in the first round of the 2011 U.S. Open, with Federer dominating 6-4, 6-3, 6-2. The Swiss is not quite in his prime three years later, but he is at least healthier and playing far better than he had been in 2011. With a 36-7 record this season, Federer suffered a tough fourth-round French Open loss to Ernests Gulbis but he won the Halle title and so far at the All-England Club has cruised past Paolo Lorenzi and Gilles Muller.
Giraldo crushed Daniel Gimeno-Traver in his opener then had a five-setter with Marcel Granollers carry over into Friday. The 35th-ranked Colombian finished off that match by winning the final set 7-5 to book his spot in the Wimbledon third round for the first time in five appearances (he previously had a 1-4 record at this event). With Giraldo likely fatigued and also playing on the worst possible surface for this matchup, Federer should have an especially routine day at the office.
Pick: Federer in 3 losing 8-10 games
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There has been a pattern in all three of Rafa’s matches. He knows these guys are all going to come at him full tilt. He has refused to rise to the bait. He has played with caution in the first set, feeling his way and getting the measure of them. He lets them fire everything they’ve got: digests the information; then computes his strategy. Rosol was the trickiest because he kept up the intensity right to the end. You could see the other two wilting has the hope faded.
Rafa’s performance supported what I was saying at the beginning of the tournament to abhirf.
It is not only about the grass being slick and rafa not being able to move that well early on and the ball not bouncing high enough . One of the major reasons rafa stuggles rarly on is that his ROS needs plenty of fine-tuning ! because he is the one who needs to make the massive ROS adjustments on grass (unlike fed and novak and andy), he needs 2-3 matches.
his ROS was so darn good in the three sets he won against Kukushkin. He was hitting big returns from INSIDE the baseline. He has a very aggressive mindset at the moment. he is even taking swings on first serve returns more often than in the past when he used to chip/block many of the returns early on. His backhand return on 2nd serves was deadly. he was taking them on the rise and dictating play from thereon.
His backhand return is more compact so rafa has changed his strategy. On clay he runs around to hit a forehand on just about every return, esp on the ad court. here, he prefers to use his backhand return more ! he takes the returns early and does not lose court positioning either.
It was so great to see him go after 2nd serve returns even with his forehand. Those are signs that rafa is in a very very aggressive mindset. WATCH OUT.
I won’t read too much about Rafa’s ROS for yesterday’s match. Kukukshkin’s serve were not that good as they appeared to be. I did noticed in all 3 matches that Rafa was trying to return standing much closer to the baseline than he normally does.
Kukushkin’s service was too much fragile (maybe he had a bad serving day). That’s why I just didn’t understood how did Rafa managed to lose the 1st set.
I don’t really know that Rafa will be returning this aggressively when he faces players who like to engage in rallies unlike his early round opponents.
I agree that if Rafa faces someone who will engage in rallies, that he will stand back (e.g. the unlikely event that he would meet Robredo in the semis). But I went back and looked at the Rosol match (all of the matches are available on the replay function of ESPN3), and Rafa is committed to not only standing closer, but moving in once the server has struck the ball. Time and again on Rosol’s first serve, Rafa may have been just behind the baseline at the start, but at the time he hit the ball, he was often either on or inside the baseline. He’ll do what he needs to do depending on who he faces. Should he face Roger…well, he knows what to do when he plays Roger.
@abhirf, do you think this was the first time rafa faced someone with not a very good serve? NO! Even when rafa faces an opponent with an average-decent serve, he does not necessarily spank the returns. Yes, his return positioning does get aggressive but his contact is usually NOT that aggressive as it was in his last match.
He was taking the returns on the rise with full commitment….there was no hesitation and tinkering. When rafa is doing something against lower ranked players, he is often perfecting the skill. If he can carry on with his aggressive returning, he can get plenty of advantage against lets say Murray and Djokovic.
Also, keep in mind that even when rafa is taking the returns early on the deuce court, he does not do always do that on the Ad court ! His Ad court return has impressed me the most so far.
@vamosrafa,
If you are trying to point out his willingness to be agrressive on return, then yes that was good to see.
About the quality of ROS, as I said earlier I won’t read much into it. I’ll wait on my judgement till he faces Kyrgios or Raonic.
@vamosrafa,
The commies were talking about Rafa’s second serve returns in the match with Kukushkin. Even they noticed how he was going after second serve returns. The commies also spoke about his grip change from the forehand to the backhand. These are things that I don’t notice.
So far I have been impressed with Rafa’s movement on court, his ROS and overall serving.
Rafa is serving well too. he is stepping up the aggression on his groundies with every passing round. Krygios will not be easy as he has a massive serve and can hit through the court consistently. Rafa will be ready . I would have preferred an opponent like Gasquet or Robredo or Haas for this match but it is not to be.
Krygios and then possibly raonic are not ideal preparations for federer. Anyway, lets just focus on the 4th rnd as both federer and nadal have to win two matches before the dream SF takes place.
@vamosrafa,
I am nervous about this Krygios. That’s all Rafa needs, another big serving guy. He will also come out with no pressure or expectations. He can just blast big serves all over the place. These are the kinds of opponents that make me nervous. But I do think that Rafa will be ready.
I can’t think ahead to a possible semi with Fed. Too early to be discussing that.
Like how Lopez dealt with Isner, the big serving man! Rafa will be ready…..he may drop the first set again as he has never played this young gun……..but Rafa should be able to put him away!!!
The qualtiy of rafa’s returning was so high today that I am having a hard timing recalling when was the last time he went after second serves like that. I had to go back to the AO 2012 QF against berdych …the last set featured sick returns from rafa. He did not carry on with the aggressive returning in the next matches then but he is going to do that this time because it is grass. It will be against federer that he will change his strategy a little
vamosrafa: I’m glad to see you mention the quality of Rafa’s returns. I rewatched the match again last night trying to pay more attention to the technical aspects. It was unbelievable how close in he was standing on some of those second serve returns. He shortened his swing on ROS on both his forehand and backhand. Even on 1st serves, he was standing close to the baseline. That’s a huge adjustment for him from clay to grass, since on clay he basically stands in the next stadium for ROS. The swing itself is also a major adjustment. His normal topspin requires more arm movement, so to go to the flat short swing is another significant change. It’ll be interesting to see where he stands for ROS in the next match. The young Aussie has a massive serve and it’ll probably take Rafa at least a few games to figure it out.
You are right JPACNW ! Rafa’s return off first serves is also something that is different in this tournament. As I said, in his earlier wimbledons , including 2008 and 2010, he was chipping/blocking more returns off 1st serves in the earlier rnds. This time he is taking more aggressive swings and hitting through the ball more…
Rosol was a high quality server and even though it was rafa’s 2nd match only, he did a pretty fine job returning in the last two sets. His returning in the game he broke in the second set was also outstanding.
As i said earlier, he’l likely change this against federer. because he likes to keep things a little ‘slow’ against federer and because he can replicate his usual patterns more consistently by returning from a little deep behind the baseline.
rafa’s return positioning in the 2006 and 2007 finals was more aggressive but he stepped back somewhat in the 2008 final even when he was standing on the baseline against many other opponents in that tournament.
Rafa adjusts the most against opponents. When opponents have a crazy kick serve , that is when rafa’s return can struggle so won’t be surprised to see him step back to adjust in case things don’t work out perfectly. I am just very happy that he has this aggressive returning as a weapon now. He can deploy it when needed !
My take is that rafa will now start returning with a similar position against every opponent. If he struggles at any stage, he’l adapt accordingly.
@vamosrafa,
It’s funny but I was thinking about that 2012 AO quarterfinal match with Berdy while watching Rafa’s match with Rosol. I remember that Rafa was already down a set to Berdy and was battling in a second set tb. I think Berdy even had a set point to go up two sets. But as he always does, Rafa found a way to win.
I remember Cheryl Murray live blogging with the rest of us and being ecstatic to see Rafa standing at the baseline blasting backhand ROS winners. That was something to see from Rafa. On hardcourt no less!
haha..yes I remember. That was quite a display. It’s interesting to notice that the first point played between rafa and fed in the AO 2012 SF saw rafa stepping in to crank a second serve forehand return inside-out ! Federer almost half-volleyed a flicked forehand from the baseline . I thought rafa was going to continue what he did to finish Berdych off but then he changed ! His average return positioning was more like it usually is against fed !
Rafa’s return positioning in montreal against djokovic was also quite aggressive, but in the Ad court usually. He usually likes to run around his backhand to hit forehand returns on clay and hard courts but he has not been doing that on grass so far this event
Verily tennis Gods, does Djokovic vs Tsonga need to take place? Imo, not. How about we deal: I’ll take a Djokovic w/o into the next round if you give me Rafa in the final. Deal? Just spare us Djokovic/Tsonga!
RT @RD_Tennistalk: “Djokovic has won 15 straight sets against Tsonga, including 8 in a row without even going to a tiebreaker”
Stanford needs help…….seriously.
https://twitter.com/ChiaraGamTWI/status/483246210476941312/photo/1
#TheT-Shirt
A classic example of the Peter Principle at work.
https://twitter.com/Wimbledon/status/483249314072784898/photo/1
Vamos Rafa!
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152319868666026
Brain Game: Rafa’s Brilliance On Backhand Return by Craig O’Shannessy 29.06.2014 (match against Kukushkin)
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/06/26/Wimbledon-Brain-Game-Saturday-Nadal-Federer.aspx
Brain Game: Rafa Goes Back To Basics by Craig O’Shannessy 26.06.2014 (match against Rosol)
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/06/26/Wimbledon-Brain-Game-Thursday-Nadal-Federer-Tsonga.aspx
Brain Game: Rafa Shelves Favourite Pattern by Craig O’Shannessy 24.06.2014 (match against Klizan)
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/06/26/Wimbledon-Brain-Game-Tuesday-Nadal-Federer-Wawrinka.aspx
#ManAtWork
Kyrgious seems all hipped about playing Rafa…I have never seen him play but as far as I can see he is another big hitter…Rafa may have trouble in the first few games or the first set (nothing new there… 😉 ) but I just don’t see this youngster troubling Rafa even on his least favorite surface -the green stuff…The kid doesn’t have experience, knowledge or mental strength to keep it up with Rafa…so, while it may take Rafa a few games to learn this fellow’s game and to get into it, I have no doubts that Rafa will be able to dispatch him without trouble…
Serbian commentators are already dragging about Rafa losing first set becoming a pattern and how Rafa is likely to lose to Raonic… I don’t read much into Rafa’s losing first sets especially when knowing that he experienced the same sort of lapses in the RG and won the title at the end…as long as Rafa is fit and serves well and as long as he believes he can beat the guy in front of him I have no fears about his game because his forehand seems stronger every day and his BH is improving…
With each match Rafa is getting better and better on this grass while the green stuff is significantly deteriorating to soon disappear and be fully replaced with lovely dirt 😀
Vamos Rafa!
I think those Serbian commentators are making a mistake in thinking that Rafa’s early round matches are an indication of how he will play in the second week. I also think it’s patently absurd for them or anyone else to be predicting Rafa losing to Raonic. That is not going to happen. If Raonic gets there.
These challenging early round matches have helped Rafa get match play and confidence as he moves into the second week. I don’t care how Rafa wins, as long as he keeps on doing it!
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/nick-kyrgios-believes-he-can-beat-rafael-nadal-in-round-of-16-at-wimbledon-20140629-zspsu.html
This gu Kyrgios is sounding confident and dangerous (:-. I fear him more than Raonic as no Top 10 player just hits the ball and takes huge cuts/swings at it, they are all measured.
How I wish Rafa had Robredo in 4th or Gasquet 🙂
yeah…kyrgiois is going to come and shorten the rallies as much as possible. This is what Rosol said . They want to keep rallies as short as possible. Kyrgios on average does not hit that hard but he has all the fire power to do that if needed ! His serve is his biggest weapon
“His serve is his biggest weapon”………………….that’s good, but that can also be very bad! Re; Isner! It took Kyrgios five sets to get through to Gasquest, though Gasquest had it in the bag, but he blew it. Cant see him troubling Rafa too much!
@Sanju,
Talk is cheap. I always say that because it’s true. This guy can blab on all he wants, but playing Rafa in a slam in a best three out of five set match is a whole other thing. Young guys can be brimming with arrogance and cockiness, but actually doing it on the court is something else entirely.
Rafa has had three challenging matches in which he has found the answers, raised his level of play when necessary and has some real confidence. He will be ready. I never like seeing him play big serving guys, but Rafa will know how to neutralize this kid.
He frankly does not appear as cocky on couurt. I found his disposition balanced. Ofcourse compared to Rosol, everyone behaves like a saint. That guy is the height of arrogance and cockiness. I hope Rafa cuts him to size once and for all, he needs a monmental thrashing on court from Rafa. He strangely reminds me on Robin Soderlings arrogance after he beat Rafa and the cold behaviour from Soderling always towards Rafa post that eve after his losses in 2010, 2011.
Kyrgios feeds on crowd support and there are many loud boisterous Aussie fans in the stadium. Thank God the match is not played in Australia
NNY has a very valid point. The most recent example is that of that serbian guy lajovic claiming he can beat nadal at the french open !
Kyrgios will hit the ground hard… he does not have a clue what it’s like facing Rafa in a slam.
kyrgios has one of the biggest 2nd serves in the game. he will test rafa’s return and prepare him well for Raonic (if Raonic makes it there)
@vamosrafa “he will test rafa’s return and prepare him well for Raonic (if Raonic makes it there)”……you put things in great perspective there!