Wimbledon R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Tsonga, Federer vs. Pouille

July 5, 2019 Ricky Match previews 160

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will bid for spots in the Wimbledon second week when they take the court again on Saturday. Nadal faces another potentially tough test in Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, while Federer is going up against Lucas Pouille.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal and Tsonga will be squaring off for the 13th time in their careers when they clash in the Wimbledon third round on Saturday. The head-to-head series stands at 8-4 in Nadal’s favor, a respectable record for Tsonga relative to the Spaniard’s dominance of most opponents. Their only previous grass-court contest came eight years ago at Queen’s Club, where the Frenchman prevailed 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-1. Of course, Nadal was making a quick turnaround following his sixth French Open title and Tsonga was at his peak in those days. The 34-year-old is a shadow of his former self right now, plagued by injuries and struggling at 72nd in the rankings. He has benefited from a favorable draw at the All-England Club, coasting past Bernard Tomic and Ricardas Berankis in straight sets.

Tomic was fined all of his first-round prize money for failing to meet a professional standard in terms of effort (ie, “tanking”) against Tsonga. Saturday’s opponent, of course, is at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Even more motivated than usual against unfriendly rival Nick Kyrgios, Nadal survived a high-quality 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-6(3) battle with Kyrgios on Thursday evening. The world No. 2 preceded that result with a 6-3, 6-1, 6-3 beatdown of Yuichi Sugita. Nadal is riding a 14-match winning streak and his performance in round two will give him the utmost confidence for the remainder of this fortnight.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 12 games or fewer

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(27) Lucas Pouille vs. (2) Roger Federer

Whereas Nadal was fired up to an unprecedented extent–even by his standards–against Kyrgios, Federer has not come close to putting things into top gear. With a draw even friendlier than Tsonga’s, the third-ranked Swiss eased past Lloyd Harris and British wild card Jay Clarke in the first two rounds (although he actually dropped the opening set to Clarke). Eyeing a ninth Wimbledon title, Federer recently triumphed for the 10th time in Halle to set himself up nicely for success in SW19.

Up next for the 37-year-old Saturday is a second career matchup with Pouille. They previously faced each other five years ago on the indoor hard courts of Paris, where Federer cruised 6-4, 6-4. Pouille is obviously a much different player now, but he is slumping in 2019 following several mostly impressive seasons. Down to 28th in the rankings, Pouille is a mediocre 12-12 in 2019 and 7-11 in his last 18 matches. He did not have to do much in rounds one and two, taking advantage of compatriots Richard Gasquet and Gregoire Barrere in straight sets. Nothing about those results nor anything Pouille has accomplished since the Australian Open (semifinals) suggests he can seriously challenge Federer.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 11-14 games

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160 Comments on Wimbledon R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Tsonga, Federer vs. Pouille

  4. No disrespect to Tsonga, but I just don’t see how the 2019 version of him can handle Rafa at a major. If this were 5+ years ago, then maybe it would be a different story. But Rafa would have had the edge over Tsonga at Wimbledon when Tsonga was at his absolute peak. Now Tsonga is no longer the player he used to be, while Rafa is still at the top of his game.

    As I’ve felt all along, barring some sort of unforeseen streaking by Tsonga or Kyrgios (that hurdle is cleared) or injury to Rafa, I just don’t see Rafa losing to anyone at Wimbledon this year outside of Djokovic or, possibly, Federer. I would be SHOCKED if Rafa lost to anyone not named Djokovic or Federer.

    I said a few months ago that I believe Rafa will win Wimbledon one more time before he retires, and I stand by that belief. He played better at Wimbledon last year than I had seen play there in many years. While he didn’t win the match against Novak, I believe that his matches against Del Po and Djoko really brought out the true Wimbledon contender in Rafa that we hadn’t seen for a long time. If he can play in this tournament the way I saw him play in the SF last year, he can be holding that trophy again. He just happened to come up against a Novak that we hadn’t seen for a couple years before that match- the Novak who is also an all-time great still at the top of his game when he needs to be. I am predicting that we get a rematch of last year’s SF in this year’s final, and I believe it has the potential to be just as incredible as last year’s match. After that match last year, while he ended up losing, there is no doubt in my mind that it gave Rafa the belief that he can beat a top-form Novak at Wimbledon. Rafa was an inch away from beating the guy who would go on to become the Wimbledon champ for the 3rd time in 5 years. Rafa knows he can still beat anyone in the world at Wimbledon. He just needs to execute it, and I believe he is going to either this year or next year.

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  5. Kevin, I always find it refreshing how optimostic you are re: Rafa’s chances at every non-clay tourney☺
    I share your optimism as far as Tsonga is concerned, though. As to Djoker and Fed – we will see. It’s still a long way to go. Unfortunately Rafa missed last year one of the biggest opportunities to win a third Wimby title. Who knows if the opportunity will present itself again?
    Something else: I am incredibly disenchanted by the young guns. They don’t seem to be able to make any significant breakthrough at all! This year’s trophy will go again to one of the Big Three! It’s mindboggling…

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    • I am with you about the “Young Guns”, littlefoot. It’s so disenchanting… I’ve been just assuming for a while that maybe the Big 3 really are still THAT much better than everyone else. But I’m starting to really wonder now… Can we really say that the Big 3 are still just unbeatable when it’s not even the Big 3 who these young guys are consistently losing to? The Young Guns are most often losing to random players ranked between 100 and 10. That’s what’s concerning to me. Before they can worry about trying to overcome the top guys, first they need to learn to consistently get TO the top players at the biggest tournaments. Are these young guys actually just not that good yet? Maybe with the way the game is played now, it just takes forever for players to get consistent enough?

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      • They’re not so bad, just lacking in big match experiences. Tsitsipas has already reached a slam SF at AO, beating Fed along the way before losing to Rafa there. At RG, he lost an epic five setter to Stan who’s the former champion there (Fed had a hard time beating Stan in the next round). He didn’t do well on grass because he couldn’t get used to the transition from clay to grass, just give him more time. I think he’ll do well in the coming HC season and at the USO. To me he’s the most promising prospect from the next gen to win a slam, before FAA catches up.

        FAA has just played at a slam for the first time in his career; he’s about to lose in the third round. What he lacks is big match experiences at a slam, he will get better soon. He’s only 18 going on 19.

        It took Fed until almost 22 to reach a slam SF and to win his first slam and Djoko at almost 21 to win one. Both Tsitsipas and FAA are still young and to me they’re the two best prospects among the next gen to become slam winners, ahead of their peers.

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      • The Big 3 are absolutely amazing even in their twilight years. Fed and Rafa have both made adjustments to their play style. Djokovic has improved aspects of his, although I think he still plays basically the same game. But Tsitsipas will be a winner. He’s got the mindset and the game. He crashed out of Wimbly, true, failed to make the adjustment to grass, but he’s done well at the slams for his age. He lost one of the best matches at RG round of 16 to Stan who is no slouch on clay, lost badly to Rafa at the AO semi. Not too shabby. We’ll see how FAA develops – clearly he’s no Becker at Wimbledon, winning at 17 and 18. Let’s see how he does at USO. Zverev is having a mediocre year overall, due at least in part to some personal problems. I suspect Shapovalov is a flash in the pan but we’ll see.

        Roger’s been unlucky at the slams for awhile, losing a heartbreaker to Anderson at Wimbly last year, to Millman?!? at USO on a very hot humid night and an inspired Tsitsipas at AO. He did well to reach the semis at RG this year. Djokovic has been almost unstoppable at slams for the last year – until Thiem got him at RG. Rafa’s been unbeatable at RG for the last three years now and has done very well at the others but he’s increasingly vulnerable to injury especially on hard courts. At least one of the Big Three has stepped it up at each slam but we really haven’t seen a Clash of the Titans final lately, have we? Accidents of the draw, mostly? Maybe this time around….

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  6. I give Tsonga a chance to at least make things competitive. He has the type of power game that can trouble Nadal and he has seen good form on grass so far in 2019, with a tight match against Fed at Halle. First set will be the key. If Nadal takes that I think Tsonga will quickly fold.

    I also think Pouille will challenge Fed. Fed has been unconvincing in the first two rounds. Slow starts and mental lapses. He will need to clean up and show up for the match, which he knows better than anyone.

    Any thoughts on how the court surface favors the big three? Who amongst them benefits most from the allegedly slow surface? Opinion seems divided ….

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  7. As for the young guns …. it was easy for them to come up initially and be the disrupters …. but they are now dealing with expectations for the first time and crumbling …. In Tsitsipas’ case I believe he was carrying a bit of an injury from Queens. But Khachanov today was VERY disappointing. And let’s not waste our breath about Zverev ….

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  8. Like Ricky pointed out, Tsonga had a very favorable Wimbledon draw so far. He’s in top gear? Really? Didn’t even make it to QFs on grass this year. Took one set from Raonic (Milos is still coming back from injury) and one from Federer (which just lost another set this week to whom?). Are these promising results nowadays?
    Now, looking at Tsonga’s stats compared to Kyrgios’ (yesterday), they are much weaker (first serve percentage, winners/unforced would be the most telling). And JW got those against a much lesser player than Nadal. Kyrgios did much better and managed to get a set. Nadal will feel much less incomfortable against Tsonga and his morale will be much higher.
    Normally Rafa won’t need more than three sets and 2 hours to comprehensively beat the frenchman.

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  9. Humbert is cruising against Auger-Aliassime. Didn’t see that one coming even though Humbert is a dangerous opponent.

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  10. A Fedal SF looks very possible if Roger doesn’t fold until then.
    I think Rafa meeting Kyrgios in the 2nd round was a good thing for him. It wouldn’t be the same if he won against a weaker opponent. This match will gives him a lot of confidence. I really don’t see how Tsonga could trouble him. Hopefully is gonna be competitive. I am not so sure about Fed vs Pouille. He has to improve his game. Now is the time to prepare for the SF.

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  12. FAA is a bit like Rafa. Rafa lost in R3 (at Wimbledon) in his first ever slam appearance, at age 17 in 2003. FAA lost in R3 here in his first slam appearance. Rafa of course went on to win his first slam (at the FO) in 2005 as a 19 yo, in his sixth slam appearance. Let’s see how FAA fares at the slams going forward.

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    • So far I’m not expecting too much from FAA. He is still VERY young and players seem to mature later than even a decade ago. But I have to agree with Kenny to a certain extent. It’s very frustrating that the younger generation doesn’t seem to be able to handle lower ranked players more comfortably. This year’s Wimby has been a total disaster. Right now I cannot see anyone who will be able to challenge Fed and the Djoker. And I doubt that Tsonga and Querrey will become huge problems for Rafa, although he definitely has the most challenging draw, and Wimby has not been his luckiest slam in the last nine years . But the younger generation really doesn’t make life too difficult for the Big Three atm. I”m starting to believe that they can maintain their top positions for a while – as long as they stay healthy the younger players don’t make their life too difficult .
      From the bunch of very young players I also like Tsitsipas best, although the experts seem to favor FAA. I was very disappointed that Tsitsipas lost so early. Hopefully he will have a good hard court season. He strikes me as the maturest of the young guns and he seems to have the will to succeed.
      While he had some success at other tournaments, I have no idea if Zverev will ever make a real breakthrough at the slams, Thiem has at least lived up to his potential as far as clay is concerned. It’s not his fault that the best clay courter who ever took up a raquet is still very much in business. But Thiem made at least two slam finals. But he definitely has to get better on other surfaces.

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  13. I’m backing Tsonga to win this. Forget 2019 versions etc, players peak and different times during the year and Tsonga is flying right now.

    Tsonga 3-1 (maybe 3-2)

    Pouille can beat Fed also. Im not tipping the upset but I think he can give Fed is first real test this year at Wimbledon.

    Fed 3-1 (maybe 3-2 or Pouille wins)

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      • Elisabeth, I have no idea if “Jim Courier” has the best prediction record here at the Grandstand, as he claims, or not. But he definitely has the worst prediction record here as far as Rafa’s matches are concerned, lol!

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      • No we should not bcos u consistently pick against Rafa, even on clay! So ure predictions, with all due respect, are rubbish, really.

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        • That’s right Monalisa. He might know how to make money sports betting
          it sounds like that is his thing on the daily pick page. But when it comes to Rafa, his predictions here are completely unreliable.
          Jim Courier says:
          “If I say Tsonga will win you should NOT pay attention.”

          There, I fixed it for him. 😀

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  17. Elisabeth, I have no idea if “Jim Courier” has the best prediction record here at the Grandstand, as he claims, or not. But he definitely has the worst prediction record here as far as Rafa’s matches are concerned, lol!

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    • Littlefoot,

      He might have the best record here, I don’t know. All I know is that it sticks in my mind that he underestimates Rafa LOL! But he’s right about me: I should pay more attention in general. My mother always told me. 😀

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  18. Fed is having a decent year given his age, but I don’t think his overall form has been very impressive. He got himself into trouble a couple of times at Halle despite the courts there being super-quick. As he has gotten older his peaks have just dropped a bit, and so has the consistency. The first couple of matches here have been soft opponents but he hasn’t won super-convincingly. It seems the courts are playing a bit slower too, which doesn’t help one bit. I guess it’s enough that he’s just ‘getting the job done’, but I think he needs to up his level a little here against Pouille or he could find himself in trouble.

    Hopefully I’m wrong but I have a gut feeling he won’t make it to a semi with Rafa, despite the draw being in his favour to that point.

    Rafa has looked good, the match against Kyrgios was one of the highest level contests so far and he came through it which will give him some confidence. If he brings the same level & aggression against Tsonga I don’t think there will be much of an issue. Tsonga may be in his best patch of form in a while but unlike Fed at Halle, this is best of five. When was the last time Tsonga played a consistent best of five match against a top player? He has barely played any in recent years.

    Fed in 4, Rafa in 3.

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  19. Federer in 3 and Tsonga in 4.
    Tsonga’s forehand will not be as less powerful as Kyrgios. Hence, the powerful serve and forehand of Tsonga should be enough to beat Nadal in 4 sets.

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    • Tsonga’s BH is his weakness. Rafa will attack his BH most of the times. Tsonga’s serve not as great as Kyrgios’ so I think Rafa can and will handle that; Tsonga’s FH isn’t that great tbh so Rafa’s new improved flat lethal BH should be able to deal with it.

      Rafa in four sets is my prediction.

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  23. Federer in three, as Pouille will tense up once he sees his idol across the net.

    Pouille also played poorly against Djoko at the AO this year in the SF, losing in straight sets, saying that Djoko was the most difficult opponent to play against, no wonder he’s the no.1 player. However, the two youngsters – Shapo and Medvedev – did better by getting a set each from Djoko, and Medvedev got Djoko into all sorts of troubles. It’s more to do with Pouille’s own level I must say, for he’s losing early in the subsequent events he played after the AO.

    Pouille only plays well against Rafa, because he caught Rafa at his worst moment at the USO some years back, managed to beat Rafa in four or five sets; from then Rafa had a hard time beating Pouille (he beat Pouille in three sets at Beijing R1 in 2017, the year Rafa won the event).

    So, Pouille won’t be able to cause too much trouble for Fed imo, and Fed by now should be playing better tennis to reach the second week of the tournament.

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  24. I haven’t seen Tsonga play since the Halle match against Fed, so I can’t really comment on his form apart from what others have said. However, if Nadal plays at the level he did against Kyrgios, it’s hard for me to imagine him losing. I suspect it would take JW can summoning his 2008 AO form to beat him.

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  26. Rafa is really impressive, serving well, moving well! Not allowing Tsonga to play his game!

    Rafa has really opened up his shoulders here! Hope he keeps it up and improves as tourney progresses!

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      • I was not worried about Tsonga. While he may be decent form now, he is long past his best days. Rafa will take a huge boost of confidence from the match against Kyrgios. He knows Nik gave him his best. That makes it even better.

        I expected Rafa to cruise through this one.

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  27. One point at a time Rafa, one game at a time, one set at a time, one match at a time, one tourney at a time!

    Vamos Rafa!!

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  28. We could say that Nick was the only impediment for Rafa to reach the SF. The draw at the end of the day was okay and opened up even better. Next round Sousa or Evans, the Querrey probably. Doesn’t sound horrible at all. Up until now he is looking better than Fed and Djoko. I expect Roger to find his game before he meets Rafa.

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    • Querrey is the worry imo, after this match. Querrey plays well on grass, was a semi- finalist here some time back; he had also won a title at Queens. He has a big serve and is good at the net.

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  30. Lost only10 points on his serve, serving 11aces! Rafa played fantastic match! Beautiful from Rafa!! What a treat for my eyes to see Rafa playing this good on grass!

    Vamos Champ! So proud of you!!!

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  32. I was not nervous in the least in this match as Rafa came out of the blocks on fire!!! He did everything well, you could see he was composed. Thats when he plays his best tennis!!! Glad to see Rafa in the second week here again!!

    VAMOS!!

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    • I am still nervous with Rafa even if I knew he would be playing free and run through this match and played out exactly what I hoped for. My congratulations to all fellow Nadal fans Amy, NNY, Natashao, Lucky, Ramara everyone. Its nice to celebrate a good victory with you guys. BTW whats wrong with Mr Jim Courier on here. Was he hoping and praying Nadal messes it up 🙂

      I am thinking if its meant to be, Nadal might actually lay his hands on his 19th next week.

      Have a good weekend guys!

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    • Me too! Vamos Rafa!

      I found it hard to believe Tsonga would give Rafa any trouble. I like Tsonga a lot, really sorry for all his knee problems, but he’s only had a couple of great matches in his career, most notably the Wimbly where he beat Fed after going down 2 sets to him He was serving LIGHTS OUT in those 3 sets though and that was quite a few years back. Then there was the AO 2007 semi where he gave Rafa a real beatdown.

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  35. I’m impressed with Pouille so far in this match, he really comes to play, not folding in front of his idol. The match is quite competitive so far.

    I think Pouille coming to the net is not the right strategy against Fed, but Pouille isn’t one who could hit hard to force Fed to stay away from the net. He’s not going to trouble Fed at the net; Fed should win this in straight sets.

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  36. 1) Nadal is a beast. Playing better tennis than I realized. 2) TENNYS SANDGREN LETS GO 😂 3) just turned on Roger’s match. It’s a close one, already a bit nervous haha

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  38. Watching Pouille here makes me appreciate Rafa and Djoko even more. I mean, Pouille’s reflexes and anticipation is no where near those two guys.

    Fed will always rush the net to pressurise his opponents but somehow both Rafa and Djoko would still find a way to pass him. Pouille half the time couldn’t get past Fed with his shots and is made to run all over the place to defend even in his own service game!

    Fed’s BH is not even clicking that well but Pouille still couldn’t take advantage.

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    • lucky, his BH may not be clicking that well, but it’s his BH that saved his game at 5:5, and maybe Pouille would be 1:0 now.

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  39. I think a player like Hurkacz would do better than Pouille against Fed, because Hurkacz at least could serve big and hit hard to force Fed to stay at the baseline.

    Pouille really has no big weapons to trouble Fed; he’s basically playing a similar game as Fed though a few levels lower.

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  40. It’s just like Kei or Coric playing against Djoko, junior version vs adult version, not going to win most of the time.

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  42. While Fed obviously can beat Rafa at this Wimbledon, I still wouldn’t bet money on Rafa losing to anyone outside of Djokovic. As I was from the beginning, I am expecting a Rafole Final. And I only give Novak the slight edge in that one because he’s won 3 of the last 5 years, and hasn’t lost to Rafa at a major since 2014. This could very well be Rafa’s year at Wimbledon.

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    • On current form, Nadal has the edge. But I think Fed will up his level if they meet in the SF. Right now there’s not enough drive on his FH and he is shanking too many on the BH. The fact remains that he hasn’t lost on grass this year and has only dropped one set here. Imo, Fed’s best level is still good enough to take the title.

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  44. Boris Becker is right about Pouille, and we both agreed that Pouille isn’t doing himself any favor rushing the net.

    Fed can do everything better than him when at the net; he should instead stay back and gets into rallies, constructs the points and then forces errors out of Fed. He coming to the net is playing into the hands of Fed imo.

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  46. Berrittini is in a long hard battle with Schwarzman, looks like he’s about to win in five sets in 4+hours.

    I think it’ll be Fed vs Berrittini and Rafa vs Evans in R4.

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  47. Berrittini finally wins the marathon match. Schwarzman is fast becoming another Simon, he’s so very hard to beat, even on grass?!! Even players like Djoko and Rafa find it so hard to put him away. I will never want to see Schwarzman close to Rafa in the draw!

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  49. Did anyone see the last point of the Sousa-Evans match? How did Evans miss that shot!!! Tough to watch 🙁 congrats to Sousa tho!!

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    • The last point is pretty much ALL I saw of that match. Evans blew a makeable volley. Fatigue? Nerves? Doubt even Evans knows.

      Rafa says Sousa is “very dangerous when playing well”. But so is Rafa.

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    • Yes, Benny. That was the type of match where I want both players to win. So sorry for Evans. I hope he will achieve something great at some point.

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  50. Someone posted this on Utube after Roger’s match today. Does anyone concur?

    “Roger’s game is very worrying.
    Balls are not penetrating the court and are sitting up, his first step to the ball is slow, his backhand has become a huge liability again (this really stood out today with all the shanks and missed second serve returns), his return game is in serious need of improvement, his forehand is to loopy and his intensity is low to a point where going into a tough 4 or 5 set match will handicap him. His serve placement and volleying are the only things on point right now although he can do more with his first serve percentage and add a few mph.
    Nadal today on the other hand looked unbeatable. Hardly any unforced errors or shanks, his serve and return of serve can’t get any better, his first step to the ball and reaction time are lightning fast and his tenacity unmatched.
    Roger really needs to step it up in almost all the departments.”

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    • Fed is not so bad to be honest. He’s so quick around the court, served well, volleyed well, and not missing anything when at the net. Some of his gets were simply unbelievable for a man his age! He even moved better than a much younger Pouille!

      I feel the Fedfans are too harsh on Fed; I predicted Fed would beat Pouille in straight sets and Fed really did that. Pouille has nothing to trouble Fed really, because Pouille, like many, won’t be able to handle it once Fed upped his level at end of sets or at end of match. Imo, only Rafa and Djoko could beat this Fed; or maybe Stan or Delpo at their best could hit Fed off the court; I doubt the others could.

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      • Someone predicts that a player might give Federer a match and doesnt performing like expected and all of a sudden you own ‘Fed’ and his performances. Nice. wWish I knew Fed like you do!

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      • It takes a lot more knowledge, skill and courage to tip big upsets than it does to ride predictions that are paying 1.10 with the bookmakers. But carry on, dont let me spoil your party.

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  52. Hi, rafafans and fellow tennis fans! How nice that Tsonga – contrary to some expert’s predictions here😀 – didn’t turn out to be a major obstacle. The tricky match and hard earned win over Kyrgios may have liberated Rafa. I can’t remember when I last saw him play that well on grass. A spectator yelled: “Jo, it’s not your fault. He’s too good!” Rafa looked even more impressive so far than Fed and the Djoker, especially since his opponents were a lot trickier. But I fully expect Novak and Roger to rise to the occasion if they see Rafa on the other side of the net. At the AO Rafa also looked absolutely brilliant in every match and stronger than all others – until he met the Djoker in the final and got scorched.
    In London I fully expect a Novak vs Nadal/Federer final. Anything else would be a huge surprise. We have to wait and see how Rafa will fare against one or hopefully both of the two other GOATs. But it’s totally impressive how well Rafa plays on grass at the ripe age of 33! It may help, though, that the grass is really slow this year. Does anyone know, why this is the case?

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    • FWIW Rafa says the grass is the same as it’s been since 2003 in his opinion, but the balls are sometimes heavy.

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      • Ramara,yes,Rafa said it’s the same as always. But others see it very differently. Especially Fedfans freak out about this years’s “green clay”. While this is most certainly wildly exaggerated, the surface does seem to be really a bit slower for some reason. They did some timing. The bounce is also said to be a bit different, but it’s still lower than on “red clay”.

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  53. I think the grass seems slow because of the hot weather there. I think the grass dried up quicker than normal, not so sleek and therefore the bounce gets higher too. They may be using a heavier ball? Fed mentioned the heaviness of the ball I believe.

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    • I also feel the same. No clouds and dray weather takes away the slickness of grass and I guess it makes it less slippery also.

      Meanwhile Rafa has a nice fourth round opponent who would help him with a lot of baseline stuff and would give him a good workout before a potential match with Querrey.

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    • I agree with Rafa that even between players they dont have the same opinion on the speed. It clearly depends on where your game is at and how you feel the ball.For good long years, like he says its a story. the moment baseliners started winning they say the court was slowed down on purpose. I remember everytime Nadal wins people used to talk about court speed and how it was made slow on purpose. Ok he won Wimbledon, he can definetely not win on hard courts. ok he wins Aus, lets see if he wins the US 🙂 and then guess what they slowed it down everywhere to suit him 🙂

      But yes the conditions vary with weather, balls and court speed. The only thing key that I had noticed is the baseline wears out way quicker because everyone plays more on the baseline not just Nadal. and it becomes easier for his movement like he would on a clay or hard court.After first couple of days the moment I see mud on the baseline I begin to think better days for Nadal from now on. But again thats because he is still here. Even the years he won he survived tough five setters and then kept getting better.

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  56. I can understand that Rafa is thoroughly tired of being asked about Kyrgios all the time. Unfortunately this story probably won’t go away anytime soon and will gain legs whenever Rafa and Nick face each other in the future.

    As to the Wimbledon court speed discussion: I watched an analysis at a YouTube tennis channel where they tried to get some objective answers, since the assessments of the players vary. They measured and compared the speed of the ball and the height of the bounce with last years’s data and created some nifty graphics. The ball seems to be indeed slower but has a lower bounce. This can be very well explained with the use of heavier balls – and this isn’t necessarily an advantage for Rafa. However, it doesn’t favor very tall players with a powerful serve. And except for Raonic many tall and big servers have already made a very early exit. And in some surprising cases they went out against smaller, more mobile players without a powerful serve. I think these results are very compatible with the available data.
    It’s true that tournaments often change the conditions from year to year for various reasons. Since 2017 the AO suddenly became a lot faster, which is certainly one reason why Fed started to win there again after many years without slam titles. Many – like Hawkeye – have speculated that this was done specifically for breaking Novak’s reign and accomodate Fed, who at his age definitely liked that the rallyes became shorter and that the effectiveness of his serve was enhanced, and he honestly acknowledged that he Approved of the new AO conditions. But personally I believe it’s more likely that the Australians wanted to favor their local boy Kyrgios who is certainly more comfortable on a fast and slick court – at least on those days when he does indeed feel comfortable to be on a tennis court. The US Open on the other hand became slower since 2017 and thus traded places with the AO as far as court speed is concerned. And in the past the French famously tried to speed up their FO clay courts with various measures: mainly with a thinner layer of clay and lighter balls. A couple of years ago Rafa made specifically some comments about these changes. Many thought that this was an attempt of the French to make life a bit more difficult for Rafa in Paris, lol! If that’s true it clearly hasn’t worked at all and the French have probably given up a while ago on trying to derail the Rafa train 😁!
    Overall the Big Three have been remarkably immune against all changes. Rafa made it into the final of the AO twice in three years despite the slick and fast court, and Novak won again the title this year. As to Wimby, we have to wait and see how it will play out and how the conditions will be in the second week. If the conditions are a bit slower it might help Rafa somewhat in a potential semi-final against Fed. But it won’t help him against Novak. And I have the impression that his current splendid grass form has not a lot to do with court speed.

    Reply

    • Littlefoot, Rafa won his USO in 2010 and 2013 too, when the surfaces there weren’t as slow as 2017/2018. When Rafa won the USO in 2010, some people claimed that’s because USO slowed down the surface! It’s as if when Rafa won something, it must be slow surface!

      Don’t they know in 2010, Rafa had his big serve to help him win the USO? He’s serving at 130-135 mph his first serves and that really helped him against the best returner of serves ie Djoko, in the final. Rafa also served well in USO2013, though not as big as his 2010, but still in the 120-128 mph range.

      Reply

  57. I do think the slower surface, not the heavier ball, is the reason why some of the big servers don’t do well this year. But, I’ve to say it’s still the form of the players concerned that’s more important than the slow surface.

    I mean Raonic and Querrey are two big servers too, but they have no problems winning their matches and into R4 now. Cilic has his own problems and is in poor form this season; both Anderson and Isner are just back from injury break; Karlovic has not made much progress at Wimbledon all along. Kyrgios lost to Rafa not because he couldn’t serve big, but rather he didn’t play the big points well, and Rafa played better than he did. Rafa was also serving well to hold his own serves so often in the match.

    Don’t blame it on the surface, blame it on their own form.

    Reply

  58. I’m glad Rafa has confirmed what I’ve always thought. I have never bought into this court speed saga. Commentators sit in the commentary box and decide how fast or slow a court is. They don’t seem to have a way to determine the speed. It’s all bollocks.

    Reply

    • The commenters and journos – unless they have taken the trouble and have done some actual research and haven’t just listened to rumors – are indeed no reliable source re: court speed. But there are ways to measure and determine exactly and objectively what’s going on. And if the balls are indeed heavier this year (a fact which can be easily confirmed or debunked) it does make sense that the game is indeed a tad slower this year and that the bounce is affected, too.
      For Rafa, like for any other player, there are conditions which are better suited for him while others are detrimental. We all know that he prefers warm temperatures, dry weather and an open roof☺ He has also said that Wimbledon is always more complicated for him because of the lower ball bounce on grass courts, which isn’t good for his knees. He actually said, that the lower bounce affects him more than the court speed, since contrary to common perception he is not against faster conditions. Therefore, if the balls are really heavier than last year, Rafa would not necessarily profit from this change. But so far he is doing just fine and seems to be physically and mentally in a good place.

      Reply

    • Works for me. At least in theory – ESPN (USA) will now be showing Wimbledon on 2 channels – yay! One for centre court and the other for the rest. No guarantee they won’t still split the screen to show Serena on BOTH channels as they did last year, splitting the screen between Roger/Kevin and Rafa/Delpo despite devoting an entire channel to Roger’s match. G’rrrrr.

      Reply

  60. So, I doubt the Wimbledon committee has done anything different to the grass this year, its more to do with the weather. Perhaps they are using heavy balls too.

    Drier grass maybe benefit Rafa? But, heavy balls don’t, so Rafa has to play well to get to where he is.

    I mentioned before, that heavy balls don’t favor players like Rafa and Fed, but players who could hit hard (like Hurkacz for example, who could then go toe to toe with Djoko for two sets).

    Reply

    • Lucky, I listened to a lengthy German Fed interview for Sky. And he had some interesting things to say about the court conditions. He isn’t bothered by the conditions, but he said, that the courts have been for some reason very soft at the beginning and were therefore initially a bit on the slower side, but he thinks they will become harder and more condensed in the second week after many players have stomped on them. He thinks that nobody tinkered deliberately with the surface, but he also thinks that the balls are different and a bit heavier this year. This baffles me. How come that nobody knows for sure if the balls are different or not??
      It is what it is, and all players have to deal with the same conditions.

      Unfortunately the dry and sunny weather won’t continue next week, and there might be a few rainy days midweek and we might see a few matches under a closed roof. But the Sunday might be temperate and sunny.

      Reply

      • Lucky, basically Fed confirmed what you said: Nobody changed deliberately the surface conditions but the balls are heavier. Neither Rafa nor Roger profit from this. But Rafa played very well nevertheless. Roger’s current level is more difficult to assess since he hasn’t really been tested so far. His next match will tell us more, but I fully expect that he will have reached a high level if he reaches the semis.

        Reply

      • I think Fed’s form now is not how he will be playing once he gets to the latter stages. We know that the top players raise their level of play the deeper they go. So I am not going to assume that the way Fed is playing now is the way he will play in the semis.

        It’s really wonderful to see Rafa playing so well here. After a few tough years people forgot just his well he can play on the grass. Rafa is healthy and feeling great after winning RG. His strategy to skip the warmup tournament seems to have worked well. The match with Kyrgios gave him all the match play and big test he needed.

        I do agree with those who have said that it would be a shock if anyone other than Rafa, Fed and Novak end up in the final.

        Reply

  61. I read some twitter comments from the Fed fans, they’re complaining about the slow surface, as if Wimbledon deliberately slows it down. They’re saying all these favor Rafa, like they’re helping him in the slam race count!..

    Come on, I LOL, Wimbledon favoring Rafa? Since when? They (the Fed fans) are getting worried that Rafa may soon surpass Fed in the slam count, but, I doubt Fed is losing his sleep over this. Its always the fans who are complaining!

    Now that Rafa gets to play on CC court for his R4 match, the Djoko fans on twitter are complaining about the unfair treatment that Djoko gets from the Wimbledon organiser. They said Wimbledon always favor Fed so Fed always get CC for almost all his matches, but they think Rafa as no. 3 seed should be given Court 1 instead.

    What they fail to realise is that come the QF, Djoko will most likely be playing at CC and Rafa at C1. Unless they think Djoko is not going to make it to the QF, why so much complaints? So, they want Djoko to be at CC all the time after R3, and poor Rafa at C1 all the time after R3 unless he reaches the SF? Is that fair to Rafa? What if Rafa plays his R4 match at C1, and then his QF at CC, will not the Djoko fans complain about that?

    Last year, we the Rafa fans complained about the roof. Fans are fans, they like to complain when they think their fave is not treated fairly.

    Reply

    • Well, the courts seem to have been subject to several variables which will always be slightly different each season. Grass is the only living surface. Apparently there hasn’t been any deliberate tinkering. Also, the idea that the conditions were changed in order to please specifically Rafa is certainly absurd. Making the balls heavier is obviously not a good way to help him, lol!

      Reply

    • The ladies’ QF is on Tuesday and the Men’s QF is on Wednesday so all the QF matches will be on CC because the other matches on Tuesday and Wednesday will be doubles QFs. Tomorrow is the last time any singles match will take place on Court 1.

      Reply

      • How can four QFs be played on CC?? Two will be played at C1. Matches at CC and C1 start from 1pm local time.

        Reply

        • Yes, the QF has 4 matches so two of them will be on Ct 1. Now that both courts are covered it doesn’t make too much difference. At least, Ct 1 has real tennis fans no Royal Box or the great and the good.

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  62. Well, the courts seem to have been subject to several variables which will always be slightly different each season. Grass is the only living surface. Apparently there hasn’t been any deliberate tinkering. Also, the idea that the conditions were changed in order to please specifically Rafa is certainly absurd. Making the balls heavier is obviously not a good way to help him, lol!

    Reply

  63. Sorry for the double post. The site behaves a bit strange atm.
    I didn’t get the feeling that Fed himself was overly worried about the current court conditions.

    Rafa needs to deal with the roof if he wants to win another Wimby trophy. The roof is there and sometimes it will be closed. That’s it. There will be rainy days next week.

    Reply

    • I don’t think Rafa is bothered about the roof at all. He says it’s so high that he hardly notices it’s there. The ground is the same grass it’s not as it suddenly changes to concrete. It’s just the principle of it that an opponent can ask for an outdoor tournament to be played under the roof in perfect weather because he feels it would help him. The reason they went with Djokovic was for the match to finish under the same conditions that it started. That makes no sense because when they close the roof for bad weather, they are not maintaining the same conditions.

      Rafa is attacked from both Fed and Djoker fans because they are all afraid that he will leave their player behind.

      Reply

  64. ESPN had an interview with Rafa yesterday. They asked him about the report that the court was playing slower. He laughed and said in all the years he has been coming theee the surface is always the same. But he did say that the balls are heavier at Wimbledon.

    Rafa has never gotten any favoritism or special treatment at Wimbledon. With their peculiar way of seeding, they are different from every other slam. Rafa should have been the #2 seed. It should be based in the rankings. Period. He got the worst draw, but it has opened up. He has a very good opportunity. I think he can reasonably make the semis and then it could be a rematch with Fed .

    Reply

    • NNY, many players have voiced their opinions, and each player has said something different about the court speed. But to my knowledge a majority has said indeed that at least initially the conditions were very slow – slower than in previous years. And some objective data which have been gathered, seem to confirm this notion. Fed thinks that the courts will settle and condense in the second week and become faster. He doesn’t think there has been any deliberate tinkering with the surface. Grass is the only living surface after all and conditions can always vary from season to season. But Fed also thinks the balls may be slightly heavier. If that’s the case, neither Roger nor Rafa benefit from this.
      Since Rafa has been playing great so far, I don’t feel that Rafafans need to worry, though. Apparently he can handle all sorts of changing conditions. And the comparably tough draw might actually turn out to be an asset if he comes through, because performing well against dangerous opponents should boost his confidence immensely. The Djoker really has a laughable draw, though. Unless Raonic raises himself to unlikely heroics, Novak’s only stern test might come in a final against Roger or Rafa.
      The idea that something has been deliberately changed in order to help Rafa specifically is slightly absurd IMO.

      Reply

      • littlefoot,

        I know that Rafa did say in the ESPN interview that it can depend on how a player’s game is and that affects their perception of court conditions.

        I agree about Novak’s draw being laughable. He can sleepwalk to the final! But I think Rafa responds to a challenging draw. His draw did open up and he hit a break playing Tsonga in the third round. He could have faced Cilic in the fourth round. Even though he is not in his best form now, he can still be tough on grass. I try not to look ahead but I do admit to being a bit nervous about Querrey in the quarterfinal. Querrey seems to play the role of giant killer at Wimbledon. From out of nowhere he starts playing well. Big servers always make me nervous for Rafa on the grass. But if Rafa continues to play the way he has, I like his chances.

        Reply

        • Well, after the Kyrgios match, had it be Shapo instead of Tsonga in R3, I do feel Rafa would still be able to beat Shapo. Shapo’s go for broke style would end up with more errors than winners. The fact that Tsonga playing the way he played could still beat Shapo, said something about Shapo’s level at this Wimbledon. Likewise for Cilic, when Sousa could beat him on grass.

          I think in Rafa’s quarter, it’s still Kyrgios being the most dangerous, followed by Querrey. Querrey seemed to move quite swiftly through the draw after losing a set to Thiem in R1.

          I do expect Sousa to give Rafa some test though, for he’s something like Schwartzman, who keeps fighting and never gives up. Rafa has to serve well and shortens the point, if not he may be dragged into a baseline war with Sousa.

          Reply

          • I agree about Sousa. I watched the match with Evans and Sousa is playing well..I think he can give Rafa a good test. But Rafa is looking good right now.

            I also agree about Kyrgios being the most dangerous followed by Querrey. It is true that Shapo would not have had much luck against Rafa. I did not worry about Tsonga at all. I think his best days are behind him. He never had the mental strength that Rafa has. I guess one can say if Cilic lost to Sousa, then he was not in the kind of form he has been in the past.

            Rafa got through the biggest hurdle with Kyrgios. He would normally have met him a few rounds later but his ranking has gone down. That was about as tough as it could get in the second round.

          • Actually Tsonga did not even beat Shapovalov. Berankis beat Shapo round one. In straight sets too

      • Moya absolutely deserves a vacation with his family, and Rafa is obviously experienced and intelligent enough to handle things very well with Roig’s assistence. Exhibit A is Rafa’s current level of play and how well he handled the very tricky Kyrgios challenge. But I always feel better when Moya is around. He had such a positive influence on Rafa’s confidence level and self esteem and he took certain aspects of his game in a very good direction. And since Moya has been fully onboard he has become the most successful tennis coach of the last three years with 6 slam finals, winning 4 of them and one year-end No 1 finish. Only Team Novak is hot on his heels, lol!

        Reply

  66. Rafa is serving well and hitting his FH very well; his one two punch tennis is/was impressive that had Kyrgios praising him for that. I do think that Rafa should continue playing this way on grass and on the HCs; should he manage to play this way consistently, I don’t think we need to worry about big servers in his draw.

    Of course what’s important is for Rafa to incorporate this into his normal tennis game until it becomes a natural part of it. Once that happens, he will be able to rely on it as if it comes naturally to him, just like the big serves becoming a natural part of a big server’s game.

    PS. It’s Berankis who beat Shapo in straight sets in R1, not Tsonga. Berankis then lost to Tsonga in straight sets R2.

    Reply

      • It’s ok Benny. BTW, did you manage to watch the Shapo vs Berankis match? I couldn’t watch that as not telecast here at my country, was Shapo really that bad, even on grass?

        Shapo has been quite disappointing lately after his run to the SF at Miami, losing to Fed. I wonder what happened to him; he’s behind both Tsitsipas and FAA now in the rankings.

        Reply

        • I didn’t see much. I saw the last few games, lots of sloppy mistakes from Shapo. He’s definitely in a bit of a slump now. North American hard court season is a time he could regain his form though. He has played some of his best tennis at that point in the season.

          Reply

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