Wimbledon R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Sugita, Kyrgios vs. Thompson

Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios are on a collision course for the Wimbledon second round, as Kyrgios was left at the mercy of the draw due to being unseeded. They first have to get past Yuichi Sugita and Jordan Thompson, respectively, on Tuesday.

(Q) Yuichi Sugita vs. (3) Rafael Nadal

Nadal’s 2019 campaign has been steadily gaining momentum and he will try to keep it going when he contests his Wimbledon opener on Tuesday. The third-seeded Spaniard started the season with a blowout loss to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open final, fell to Nick Kyrgios in Acapulco, suffered a knee injury in Indian Wells, and missed Miami. He even failed to win clay-court tournaments in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, and Madrid, but it all turned around for him thereafter. Nadal is currently riding a 12-match winning streak, with triumphs in Rome and at the French Open.

A first-ever meeting with Sugita awaits the world No. 2. Slumping down at 258th in the rankings, the Japanese veteran has not yet played an ATP-level match this season. He did extremely well just to qualify for the main draw, a feat he accomplished by knocking off Carlos Berlocq, Stefano Napolitano, and Lukas Rosol. This obviously where the run ends for a player who has not even faced anyone in the top 90 since Tokyo last fall.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games

[polldaddy poll=10352628]
[polldaddy poll=10352643]

Nick Kyrgios vs. Jordan Thompson

If the reward was not a likely second-round date with Nadal (or with some other top player), Thompson probably wouldn’t mind a matchup against Kyrgios. After all, the volatile Australian is 2-5 in his last seven matches overall with a 1-2 record on grass–even though it is arguably his favorite surface. But because Nadal looms on the immediate horizon, Kyrgios will undoubtedly be inspired when he takes the court on Tuesday.

Although nowhere near as naturally gifted as Kyrgios, Thompson owns a massive edge in current form. The 45th-ranked Aussie is a stellar 21-13 this year, including an 8-3 record in his last 11 matches (6-2 on grass). He finished runner-up to Adrian Mannarino in ‘s-Hertogenbosch and is coming off a semifinal showing in Antalya. This is a winnable match for Thompson if his opponent for some reason lacks motivation, but this outcome will be dictated entirely by Kyrgios. That is not always a good thing for the 24-year-old, but for obvious reasons in this case it is.

Pick: Kyrgios in 3

[polldaddy poll=10353545]
[polldaddy poll=10352638]

74 Comments on Wimbledon R1 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Sugita, Kyrgios vs. Thompson

  1. If Rosol had managed to beat Sugita into the main draw, Nadal would have had the prospect of facing 7 players who have previously beaten him:

    R1 Rosol
    R2 Kyrgios
    R3 Shapovalov/Tsonga
    R4 Cilic
    QF Thiem
    SF Fed
    F Djokovic

    As it is, if Nadal manages to beat the 6 players listed in R2-F on his weakest surface, I will pronounce it the most impressive slam title ever. Not gonna happen, though.

    • The King of Wishful thinking , Joe .

      The Kyrgios match will be pure soap opera , whoever wins.

      Im just disappointed Dreddy doesn’t get the chance to play him again.. );

      • Ha ha, why don’t you add that Djoko vs Rafa AO2019 match to your list?

        As for myself, which match could top that FO2008 final when the Victor of that match was so stingy and gave out only four games?? That match, to me is and will always be my favorite match because its a slam final between Fedal!

        • I don’t mean it was because Nadal lost, but because it was just about the most entertaining match ever! Of course, that Brown won it was a bonus.

          I didn’t enjoy watching Rafa get beat like that in AO 2019, honest. And 2008 RG final was a terrible match.

          • Then, you should enjoy Feli vs Felix at Queens this year! Or what about Fed vs Stakhovsky at Wimbledon 2013? Both times the S&V players won, playing beautiful grass court tennis, against their opponents who werenโ€™t playing badly.

          • Fed/Stakhovsky was indeed a beautiful match, and contrary to what many people think, Fed played amazing tennis that would have beaten most players. But Stakhovsky played out of his skin that day. Sensational match; doesn’t bother me a bit that Fed lost. Similar to 2015 RG QF loss to Stan, though a totally different style.

          • TBH, Feliโ€™s grass court tennis so much more entertaining than Fedโ€™s; if only Feli had the mindset and the fitness, he could have done better at Wimbledon, maybe even won a title or two there even when he doesnโ€™t belong to the big four.

            Feli has so much finesse, just doesnโ€™t have the power at the same time; to me heโ€™s a better grass court player than Brown or Stakhovsky; Brown doesnโ€™t have the finesse but just going for broke, hence todate he hasnโ€™t won anything notable on grass.

          • lucky,

            Are you honestly surprised at what a Fed fan would say about Rafaโ€™s losses?

            Oh of course itโ€™s not because he lost! Right! LOL! I see that some things never change!

          • NNY: I admitted that it was a bonus for me that Rafa lost. But I’m willing to bet that most neutral fans (including non-tennis fans) would find that Nadal-Brown just about the most entertaining tennis match out there.

          • I enjoyed the Fed vs Stakhovsky match very much, because Stakhovsky had beaten the king of grass on grass with none other than the S&V game on grass!

            It was a highly entertaining match, I was happy that Stakhovsky won in the end and the king of grass got frustrated!

          • His fans too! Thatโ€™s the best part of it, as theyโ€™re one bunch of unbearable brats to say the least (on most tennis websites)!

          • Ha ha Augusta, thatโ€™s a good one. I almost forget that Raonic match in 2016, that was the first time Raonic made a slam final.

            Actually Cilic couldโ€™ve gotten the job done in the previous round against Fed, but as always, Cilic faltered mentally that led to his own downfall, from two sets up to losing in five sets. Fed didnโ€™t have any answer to Cilicโ€™s great serving in the first two sets, and Cilic could still have a chance to win in four sets in the TB and yet he faltered.

          • Actually the most entertaining match in recent times was that AO match between Fed and Tsitsipas in 2019! Tsitsipas was simply on fire, saved so many BPs with great serving, to win in the end to reach his first QF in a slam.

            The Tsitsipas vs Stan match at RG came in second for me this year. Letโ€™s see what grass at Wimbledon could bring this time. Last year there were two classics – Rafa/Delpo and Rafa/Djoko.

          • I would include a third classic in Anderson/Isner just due to the sheer absurd length of the match.

          • Actually I watched the Fed/Tsitsipas match a few times too, not only to see Fed got defeated, but also to look at what a โ€˜beautyโ€™ this Tsitsipas boy is! Heโ€™s such an eye candy, to me only second to Rafa! Of course he beating Fed in an epic is the added bonus!

  2. Nadal in 4 (Sugita beat Rosol in straight and Rosol beat Nadal. Rosol obviously hasnt been in good form but still.)
    Kyrgios in 4 (maybe 5) (Kyrgios winning in straight after all his recent antics against a hardworking opponent is optimistic indeed.

    • I’ve see why you’ve picked him to win in straight. He has Nadal next and youre expecting him to put in a stellar performance. Thompson still has a say in the matter and should get a set unless Kyrgios serves lights-out.

    • Rosol beat Nadal once at Wimbly 2012. Beat him so badly that Nadal didn’t play for another 7 months! Man, that’s a beatdown! Otoh, Nadal has beaten Rosol 4 times, including at Wimbly 2014.

      Federer and Djokovic have also beaten Nadal at Wimbledon. Them I’m worried about. Rosol and Brown, not so much.

      • Exactly Ramara. These people , they talked as if Rafa was/is hopeless against those players!

        Rafa is 4-1 vs Rosol; 3-3 vs Kyrgios; 1-1 vs Shapo; 8-4 vs Tsonga; 6-2 vs Cilic; 9-4 vs Thiem; 24-15 vs Fed. Itโ€™s only Djoko whoโ€™s 28-26 vs Rafa!

      • Obviously I wasn’t saying that Nadal is hopeless against those players. But honestly, has it ever happened that one of the big three could draw 7 players in a GS, all of whom had previously beaten them at least once? I’m willing to bet it has never happened. It’s just an indication of how difficult Nadal’s draw is, that’s all.

        • Joe, the draw could just open up, it’s not like it hadn’t happened before!

          Why don’t you wait and see how things unfold? Why in such a hurry to say that Rafa couldn’t make it? Don’t you think it’s still early days, when the matches haven’t even started yet?!

          • Lucky and all: Why are you guys so touchy about someone expressing an opinion? I don’t think Nadal will make it out of the 1st week at wimby. So what? Of course he could do so, we have to wait to see the matches, blah, blah, blah. What am I doing that’s any different from anyone else, except expressing an opinion that happens to differ from most Rafa fans on this site?

            I didn’t get bent out of shape when most people here thought Fed would lose early at RG. He’s 37, he’s not played on clay for years, he can’t handle Bo5 matches, etc., etc. I seem to remember you pointing out that Fed had failed to make the SF for many years, and me replying that the people he lost to did exceptionally well during those years. Isn’t this sort of healthy disagreement what this site should be about?

          • Joe, those players he lost to also lost their matches and none of them reached the final except Stan in 2015.

            It took a relatively easy draw for Fed to proceed to the QF to meet Stan in this yearโ€™s FO, and Stan had played a five hour match against Tsitsipas prior to meeting Fed. Itโ€™s the luck of the draw, Iโ€™ll fancy Stan over Fed should it be Fed facing Tsitsipas in the previous round instead.

            Iโ€™m not wrong to say that Fed didnโ€™t make it past the QF in his last three slams prior to the FO this year, I believed I said that.

            You mentioned that itโ€™s just your opinion here about Rafa, but whenever someone or anyone post something positive about Rafaโ€™s chances here, youโ€™re so quick to jump in to challenge their view. Itโ€™s as if you think youโ€™re right and others are wrong, and yet thatโ€™s just their opinions too!

            Come on, donโ€™t deny, youโ€™re always posting negative things about Rafa even on clay, but when it comes to Fed, everything is favourable to him regardless of the surface.

          • Well, of course if I post an opinion (for instance a prediction on a match or a tournament), I think I’m right about it. I predict Fed will win Wimbledon and Nadal will lose early. That doesn’t mean I’m cocksure about those predictions, which would be arrogant and stupid. I didn’t predict that either Fed or Nadal would win RG; obviously I was wrong about that. But I call things as I see them, which is obviously different from how others see them.

            What I’m always surprised by is how personally Rafa fans take it if I pick against him, or even raise the possibility that his opponent will trouble him. See Sanju, Amy, or NNY taking offense in various ways, or Augusta nastily posting humiliating pictures of Federer (as if I care).

            That’s why I sometimes say that Rafa fandom is like a religion for a lot of you. In my opinion, that’s taking things much too far.

          • Compare the players Fed lost to at RG between 2010-2015 with those Nadal lost to at Wimby between 2012-17:

            Fed:
            2011: Nadal (champion)
            2012: Djokovic (F)
            2013: Tsonga (SF)
            2014: Gulbis (SF)
            2015 Wawrinka (champion)

            Nadal:
            2012: Rosol (R3)
            2013: Darcis (R2)
            2014: Kyrgios (QF)
            2015: Brown (R3)
            2017: Muller (QF)

            You can easily see that Fed was losing to much stronger opposition, which is why I expected him to do well in this year’s RG. Nadal, meanwhile, lost to much weaker opposition (until last year, which I think may have been an anomaly; I expect Nadal to revert to form this year).

          • Sorry, the corresponding round is the round the victor made it to, not the round in which the loss occurred.

          • Joe, you and Big Al came across (to us Rafa fans) as always celebrating a Rafa loss; donโ€™t blame the Rafa fans for doing the same about Fedโ€™s losses!

            Take things personally? In fact you make me feel that youโ€™re the one who pushed Fed fandom to the limit, even fancy Fed with a bigger racket could beat Rafa on clay during Rafaโ€™s peak! If you keep posting negative and ( imo and even in the opinions of neutral fans) biased views or opinions about Rafa, donโ€™t expect the Rafa fans to keep quiet about it as if we agree with you and your biased opinions.

        • And Joe, you’re wrong, Sugita hasn’t beaten Rafa, they haven’t even met before.

          And, Shapo, Thiem, Cilic hadn’t beaten Rafa on grass. And, they may not even make it to face Rafa, who knows?

          • I said IF Rosol had beaten Sugita… I was just trying to dramatize a very unusual possibility. I’m aware that Sugita hasn’t beaten Nadal, and I don’t expect it to happen here.

          • Joe, did Fed suffer any inflammation of the fat pad of his knee?Fed was as fit and healthy as ever, unlike Rafa who couldnโ€™t bend his knees for the low bouncing Wimbledon grass.

            Rafa lost to those whose game were good on grass – Rosol, Kyrgios and Muller with their big serves and Brown his S&V game. What had Tsonga and Gulbis done on clay?

            Rafa said that his knees were better the last two years, allowing him to play well on grass, hence heโ€™s advancing to the later rounds in the last two years. Letโ€™s see how things unfold this year, no point arguing.

  3. Rafa has also beaten Novak and Federer at wimbledon, last years semi was also a close call, so its not as if Rafas never beaten those two at Wimbledon ….

  4. If your a Federer fan, your never going to see how brilliant Rafa played all through RG in 2008, only how bad Federer played, to say Rafa played brilliant would be a Federer fan giving Rafa credit, god forbid any Federer fan would ever do that, as it leaves such a bad taste in their mouths ….

    • True! Agreed!

      Rafa was simply brilliant in that match; and not only in that match but throughout the whole tournament; just like he was at 2017 FO the whole tournament. Todate, there’s no one among the current players who could produce such brilliance throughout a whole tournament at a slam.

  5. Rafa had said that his knees were the problem for him at Wimbledon from 2012 – 2016.

    I think it’s because of his serious knee issue during 2012, when he had to take 6 months off. His knees were then affected by the injury after coming back from that injury. Its only from the past two years onwards that he said the knees were better and I feel thats why he had begun to have better results on grass.

    • I think it’s more because Rafa changed his preparation emphasis from trying to play run up tournaments (and either withdrawing or losing early) to grass practice + a couple of exhos. Having grass courts in Mallorca for practice has helped a lot, letting him spend more time at home after the exhausting clay court season.

      Rafa had a relatively easy RG this year and was a few finals short of his usual quota this spring. Maybe that will help.

      • Rafa actually talked about his knees improving these past two years, so he’s able to bend them to play on grass when during 2012 to 2015 (he didn’t play at Wimbledon in 2016) he couldn’t bend them low enough to play well on grass.

        I think he had inflammation of the fat pad on his knees during 2012, didn’t want to undergo any surgery so he had to take 6 months off to let it heal. I think because of that it affected his knee movements(it’s not his usual tendinitis), perhaps that problem by now has totally healed hence not bothering him?

    • I just wanted to thank you for fighting the good fight! I saw that my name was brought up among a few others. I stand by everything I have said about bias! The demeaning of Rafa happens on a regular basis. I noticed after he beat Fed at RG, that there was no one like stupid grassgoat, who comes on whenever Rafa loses. Nobody was trashing Fed it making fun of him. I realized that the conditions hampered his game in that match. I was pleased to see Rafa get the win on his favorite surface, where he will always have the advantage. But we donโ€™t see trolls or haters coming on here for the sole purpose of making nasty and vicious comments.

      I really donโ€™t care to join the discussion. Of course it ends up being Rafa fans who take offense. Right. Like Fed fans donโ€™t take offense! LOL!

      Any time someone dares to question Fedโ€™s chances they get a lecture from a Fed dan whose sensibilities are offended. So they go the exact same thing.

      I know that Rafa is healthy. I know that he will be full of confidence after his great run at RG. He has a tough draw, but as you said draws can open up. Rafa loves a challenge. So I will watch and see what happens!
      ๐Ÿ˜ƒ

      • I see my name is included with your’s as one of the supposed fanatics nny! Glad to be in such good company!! โ˜บ

      • NNY, I have never taken offense to anything you have said, indeed to anything anyone has said on this site apart from someone calling me a homophobe. I don’t care enough about tennis or tennis players to take offense to what people write in an online forum.

        If you go back and look, you’ll see that I congratulated Nadal on his impressive victory over Fed at RG, admitted I was wrong in my prediction, and said how enjoyable I found the match despite the terrible conditions and my guy losing in a pretty lopsided scoreline. I thought the quality in that match was pretty amazing.

        • We do agree on the Fedal semi. I was really proud of both guys for putting on a good, professional match despite the terrible conditions. I watched it again the other day and was struck by how competitive the first two sets were.

          • Extremely competitive. And (here my bias shows), I think Fed easily could have won the 2nd set and perhaps even the first. He had lots of chances but served poorly at key points. OTOH, Nadal was incredibly clutch in the big points.

            Rusedski pointed out that most tennis players would struggle just to put the ball in play in those conditions, yet these two played a great match with incredible shots. I was amazed at how well Nadal handled the wind.

          • Even the first? Nope, donโ€™t think so! Please, Fed himself was amazed how well Rafa moved back and forth to and from the baseline.

            As for Fedโ€™s serve, notice that his first serve % was low because he was serving as usual instead of reducing the pace to cater for the windy conditions. Rafa otoh, reduced the speed of his serve so that he had a high % of his serves landing in.

            Fed relied heavily on his serve, so he would go for it no matter what hence in windy conditions he couldnโ€™t have things his own way. Maybe, if not for the wind, the match could go four sets, they both played at a high level and I feel itโ€™s from winning that SF, that Rafa gained lots of confidence, and played his best match (best level Iโ€™ve seen him played on clay this season) in the final.

            Thiem was playing very well in the final, at least during the first two sets, better than his match vs Rafa at Barcelona imo, because Rafa at Barcelona couldnโ€™t be compared to Rafa at the FO final!

          • I would add that Thiem playing that way in the first two sets could beat anyone else, including Djoko, Fed and Stan. Those rallies, volleys, whatever, only the king of clay could match and find his way to win (a set).

            Thiem played with speed, power, finesse, topspins, slices, baseline and net rushing, matching Rafa shot for shot. I would guess that if he’s playing against Fed, he would use his power game, against Stan he would counter Stan’s power baseline play with his own power, speed and net rushing and drop shots.

            He could overpower and outlast Djoko imo, even without the windy and wet conditions.

  6. It’s usually the Fedfans that get called fan-atical.
    The Rafa fans on here are just very touchy. Many of them are guilty of double standards(see NNYs insult ).
    There are a lot worse Fedfans out there than us! At least we try to have decent discussion about tennis in general,as does Lucky Star and one or two others,to be fair.

    • I am getting fed up with my name being thrown around here. Cheap shots all over the place. I know firsthand just how bad Fed fans can be when I used to post on tennis-x. That is why I am not there anymore.

      If I thought the Fed fans here were as bad, I would have said so. Considering the level of insults that get throw around on forums, this site is pretty civilized. The trouble is that Fed fans donโ€™t want to read any criticism of them here. There are a majority of Rafa fans here, but fans of other players have always been welcome. Disagreement is welcome, too.

      I am all for quality discussions of matches. I love this sport and have watched it all my life. Long before Rafa came on the scene.

      I mentioned this before, but think it bears repeating. No one has trashed or insulted Fed like the troll grassgoat. He only comes out to post hate when Rafa loses. Which is why we have not seen him here lately. When Fed loses, you donโ€™t see trolls come out just to laugh and disrespect him. There is a respect for Fed, even if the majority are Rafa fans.

  7. NNY, June 30 , 2.29 pm ‘same old crap from the Fedfan’

    At least you acknowledge we’re not all bad ,and glad to hear disagreement is welcome.

  8. Kyrgios takes the first set 7-6 after being down 4-1. Saves a set point by hitting a 136 mph second serve ace; hits a couple pointless tweeners, but comes back to win the set by hitting a couple of untouchable aces. Guy is a total enigma. He could probably win the next two sets at love if he really cared to, but may well manage to implode. He looks to be on the edge to me.

  9. Those ‘bad’ Fed Fans are all around the world. And it’s not even about Federer. They can get attached to a team, concept, political system, personality etc at a religious/fanatical level. They don’t want to admit when their idol is not the best/ idea not valid anymore.
    For me there is no goat, because neither of these guys is CLEARLY better than the other 2. So, I just enjoy and respect the players, although I like Federer most. But, if the numbers will turn against him, I am willing to be flexible and review my opinion.
    In regards with this forum discussion, I still find nadline posts salty and rude sometimes. Like earlier Joe said Nadal-Brown was an interesting match, which no tennis fan can deny. Brown’s style surprised Nadal and the Spaniard didn’t find a tactic in that day to counteract his opponent. Even a rational Rafafan can admit that was an unusual, interesting match, although painful for them clearly. So, why feeling defensive about that and coming out with humiliating pics of Fed?
    If we try to enjoy this forum, let’s call out everyone’s improper behaviour, including nadline sometime, now that hawkeye (one of those toxic posters) took a break.

    • Why I called hawkeye toxic? Not because he likes Nadal. Because he used to bring personal insults to Joe. You may not agree with Joe everytime, but he never attacked personally anyone here.

  10. Thompson is playing a smart match, very solid, winning most of the rallies. But Kyrgios is very reluctant to really go for his shots, apart from his serve. It’s all on his racquet, but he isn’t looking good and he’s hurt a bit. I think Thompson will take this.

  11. What’s kind of funny is that Thompson is coming across as more of a hothead than Kyrgios. He’s thrown his racquet several times, even on points where Kyrgios hits a winner, even on Kyrgios aces. Strange things going on in Aussie tennis.

  12. In the fifth set Kyrgios activated โ€œIโ€™m playing Nadal if I win thisโ€ mode ๐Ÿ˜‚ ๐Ÿ˜‚

  13. Goodness, what a way to start! Slipped and fell, served poorly and then lost serve; really rusty on grass! Not looking good for the first two games.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.