Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Cilic

It will be a rematch of one of last year’s most memorable Wimbledon moments when Roger Federer and Marin Cilic meet again on Sunday at the All-England Club, this time with a Grand Slam title at stake.

In a 2016 quarterfinal contest, Cilic led Federer two sets to love only to see the Swiss storm back for a 6-7(4), 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(9), 6-3 victory. That extended Federer’s head-to-head series lead to 6-1 and they have not faced each other since. If the former world No. 1’s 2016 Wimbledon comeback was impressive, Cilic’s lone win over him was nothing short of remarkable. In the 2014 U.S. Open semis, the Croat was just about unplayable in a 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 romp that led to his first major triumph two days later.

Both men have been close to if not at their absolute best throughout this fortnight, to the extent that they are clearly the cream of the crop on grass right now–at least given the physical problems of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic.

For the third time in his career, Federer is through to a Wimbledon final without dropping a single set. The 35-year-old erased Alexandr Dolgopolov (via second-set retirement), Dusan Lajovic, Mischa Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, and Tomas Berdych to reach his 11th Wimbledon final overall. He is 30-2 this season with titles at the Australian Open, Indian Wells Masters, Miami Masters, and the Gerry Weber Open in Halle.

Given his own current form and his draw (with Murray ailing and Rafael Nadal having struggled mightily at the All-England Club dating back to 2012), Cilic was always a serious contender to be the top-half finalist. That turned out to be exactly the case, starting with convincing blowouts of Philipp Kohlschreiber, Florian Mayer, Steve Johnson, and Roberto Bautista Agut before tougher victories over Gilles Muller (five sets) and Sam Querrey (four). The sixth-ranked Croat is 22-5 since beginning the year with an alarmingly poor 7-8 record.

“It’s a nice change,” Federer said when asked about facing someone other than Murray, Nadal, or Djokovic in a major title match. “But it doesn’t make things easier, in my opinion.”

Cilic went up against Kei Nishikori in his only previous slam final and dominated 6-3, 6-3, 6-3. It goes without saying that a date with a red-hot 18-time Grand Slam champion will be a much tougher proposition.

“I believe this is his home court, (the) place where he feels the best and knows that he can play the best game,” Cilic said of Federer. “Obviously I’m going to look back 12 months ago…. I was one point away from winning a match over here against him. Definitely I believe in my own abilities to get through and to win it.

“But I still know that it’s a big mountain to climb. Roger is playing maybe one of his best tennis of his career at the moment; having a great season. It’s going to be a huge challenge.”

Cilic at his peak is one of the few players who can trouble Federer right now, and the underdog can do it even on grass. His serve, when it is firing on all cylinders like it did three years ago in New York, is one of the most dangerous in the sport. Cilic can also take time away from Federer because he hits so big off both wings from the back of the court.

That being said, Federer has been just about flawless this fortnight. These are the seven-time Wimbledon champion’s unforced error totals in his six previous matches: seven, 15, seven, 10, nine, and 19. Cilic got away with some breakdowns off his backhand side against Querrey, but he will not be able to get away with any of that on Sunday–not against Roger Federer in a Grand Slam final.

Although this will almost certainly be Federer’s most difficult test of the tournament, it continues to look like nothing will stand in his way of another Wimbledon triumph.

Pick: Federer in 4

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80 Comments on Wimbledon final preview and prediction: Federer vs. Cilic

  1. It’s almost like a no show by Cilic, I pity those who pay so much for the tickets. Well perhaps they don’t mind as long as they can watch Fed’s historic win?

    This match reminds me of the 2013 women’s final between Sabine Lisiki and Marion Bartoli. Lisiki just was so nervous ( a nervous breakdown perhaps) and lost so embarrassingly. Poor soul.

    • As usual, Lucky, you’re missing the main story in Fed’s matches, which is Roger’s incredible play. That’s what’s keeping Cilic so off balance and has messed with his head a bit. Cilic is not embarrassing himself any more than Wawrinka did in the RG final.

      • Please Joe, I’m not arguing with you about that, read my post again. Cilic can’t give his best and he got very upset (with himself!). He obviously was nervous PLUS the way Fed was playing, he had no chance! Didn’t I say it in my post ‘given the way Fed’s playing….’?

      • It’s always embarrassing when you have performance anxiety so bad that it interferes with how you can act and perform. Add a nasty niggle or foot problem and it’s depressing. I can’t help feeling bad for Marin. He couldn’t find his best.

        But Roger didn’t let anything bother him…solid as ever. It just seems so easy for him. I know Berdych gave him the most competition. Dimitrov was terrible. I’m missing a good Fedole.

        But it’s HIS – Congratulations Roger and fans on his 19th. Omg his kids are all so cute — especially the boys have grown up since I last saw them. His girls are old enough to understand the moment to a large extent and smiling. Congrats Mirka and Team Federer.

        • Yeah ratcliff, that’s what I meant when I said Cilic feeling embarrassed, of his anxiety, his breakdown when he almost cried. The foot blister is only a small problem, more like he couldn’t control his nerve, esp against a Fed playing so well.

          The second set was poor by Cilic but he tried and played better in the third set but that’s not enough.

          • Commiserations, Lucky – it was tough to watch. But I really hope Cilic can win another GS and flush out all the ghosts of this Final experience.

          • I think you’re right, Lucky. It appears to me like he was overcome by the moment and the disappointment of not coming out playing his best in his biggest career moment thus far. I’m surprised as well because he has been in a major final before. But the Wimbledon final is what most players dream of more than anything, and he was probably shook over that. There have been plenty of guys who lost their first, or multiple, Wimby final and eventually won, so I believe Cilic will get it one day. He has really upped his game in the last year, making a major final and winning his first Masters over a good-form Murray last year. I really like Marin, I hope he gets this title one day.

    • Ratcliff, Delpo played better vs Fed (in that USO final), with nerve of steel, than this Cilic who’s already a slam holder.

      I wonder how is Cilic feeling now, poor soul. He must be very disappointed with this loss, and the one sided scoreline.

      • Delpo came out third set with some noisy crowd support and began completely wrecking Federer 😀

        I wouldn’t say he had nerves of steel in the first set, Delpo, but he was able to grasp the moment, wake-up, and go for it! Was hoping Cilic would do the same — Cilic might not be as steely as Delpo but Marin can do much better — we’ve seen him.

    • Too late I’m afraid! Fed is not going to let him have even a set. Cilic lost serve in the third set, it is finished.

  2. Absolutely mind-blowing performance from Federer. Serving and returning as well as I’ve ever seen him. To not drop a set, less than a month shy of 36, is just hard to believe.

      • I don’t know about that, but I would say he’s the solid favourite to win the USO next month. Who is going to beat him when he’s playing like this? If Rafa can translate his clay game to hard court, then at least it will be a contest. Those two players have dominated the year so far; it should be an interesting HC season.

        • Thats understandable, you can’t know everything but you can take my word for it, he most likely will if h’s still playing. Fed’s game revolves around timing, skill and craft and its most likely that will still be superior to other players when he is 40, especially on grass.

          He looking good for the USO so glad we agree on something. See you next time.

  3. Hello fans!

    Just in to say that I’m doing well and to congratulate Myself on picking the last three slam winners in a row.

    As it stands Roger is My early pick for USO. Rafa at the moment is the only guy to challenge him there but let’s see what comes in cincy and Montreal.

    Fed playing better than ever with a chance for three slams this year.

    Incredible!

    Congrats to Me!

    #TTFN

    • Hawkeye, glad to see you again. I was wondering myself where are you, probably in the Honeymoon or something.
      You decide to take 6 months brake? You think that will work for you too? 🙂

    • Oh hello Hawkeye! Well congrats to you for your pick. I’m disappointed with the way Cilic came out to play, almost a no show, perhaps having a nervous breakdown, almost. I couldnt predict a nervous breakdown could I?

      Well at least Cilic reached the final, as I’ve predicted he’s the form player on grass who could go far at Wimbledon; too bad he couldn’t take the next step in the final.

  4. It is 2007 all over again. The guy is playing lights out. Only consolation is he is humbler than he was in 2007 but he may regress to his old ways if he continues his winning ways

    Congrats to all the fed fans

  5. The GOAT wins. Big congratulations.

    Now his slam count equals Rafa + Wawa + Cilic, or Nole + Murray + Wawa + Cilic.

    Very impressive for a man deciding to skip clay, aim Wimbly and simply just gets it without any other men challenging.

    This is very weak competition on grass like Rafa also facing very weak competition on clay.

  6. Federer first man to win Wimby without dropping a set since Borg in 1976. Roger hit 76% 1st serves in, which may well be the highest he’s ever hit in a slam.

      • No congrats to me are in order, Eugene! But I’m very happy for all Fed fans that their guy finally won another Wimbledon after so many close calls in recent years.

        • Maybe this is because English is not my mother tongue Joe, but I didn’t understand what you mean by saying: ‘No congrats to me are in order’

          • Just that Roger and his term deserves congrats, not me! I guess I did predict Fed would win, though my pick was in 4. But I understand and share the sentiment, so congrats to you, Eugene!

  7. Borg? Wow, Borg is really something, not dropping a set at FO ( once or twice?) and once at Wimbledon? Real Goat of the channel slams!!

    • Yes, Borg is the GOAT of the channel slams for sure! People forget just how brilliant he was and this from someone who walked away at the age of 26! To accomplish all that at such a young age!

  8. Yeah, what was so amazing about what Borg did was that back in those days, the difference between the clay at RG and the grass at Wimbledon was almost 100% different! Wimbledon was like an ice skating rink back then, and there was only like a week or something between the two slams. So the fact that Borg was able to do it multiple times when the two surfaces were so glaringly different is truly remarkable! Not so sure why he wasn’t as great on hard courts as he was on clay/grass. I consider Borg to be the at the top of the second tier of greats, after the 5-man Mount Rushmore of sorts that I believe includes (In no particular order) Fed, Rafa, Novak, Pete, and Laver. I often wonder what could have become of Borg’s career had he not lost the motivation to play at such a young age. I suppose it doesn’t matter because he obviously wasn’t meant to keep dominating after RG 1981, but it’s still fun to imagine what things would have been like in the early-mid ’80s had Borg not lost the interest and drive to compete. It was McEnroe’s time to take over the top spot, as well as for Connors to have his resurgence. It’s always bugged me, personally, how Connors won both Wimby AND US Open in 1982, but still ended the season second behind McEnroe, even though McEnroe didn’t win any majors that year! It would be one thing if Connors only had won one major that year, but he won two to McEnroe’s zero… Never made much sense to me. McEnroe obviously did very well in all the other non-slam tournaments. I felt similarly about Venus Williams in 2000 and 2001- she won both Wimby and US Open both of those seasons, but still didn’t finish #1. I understand that rankings are not just about the majors, but as I see it, I typically consider the player who ends the season with the most major titles to be the best player despite what their ranking says.

    • Borg really did not play much on hard courts. He seldom played in Australia, maybe once? (Australia may still have been on grass back then.) In his day the top players were not encouraged to play at the same tournaments outside of the slams. The pro tour was still building a fan base and wanted their top draws spread out. European tournaments were mostly on clay; hard was really a new surface back then. I think McEnroe and Borg played each other only 14 times.

      Borg was a good hard court player though. He was finalist, losing to Connors in his last USO – he was playing with an abdominal strain, too. On clay Borg was second only to Nadal – Borg himself, bless him, places Rafa first. But, really, things were so different then, it’s as Laver says: you can’t compare across different eras. I can’t imagine Nadal playing back then. He’s no lone wolf, needs his team around him, needs contact with family and friends. They didn’t even have traveling coaches back in Laver’s day. Laver once said that they coached each other.

    • Borg was the first tennis love of my life. I do agree that he belongs at the top of the second tier of players, right behind the big five. I do agree with those big five!

      The thing is we will never know what Borg might have done if he had not walked away in the very prime of his career. He was only one behind Roy Emerson, who held the record for slam titles at twelve. I have no doubt that he would have equaled that and most likely broke the record. Even if he was not st his best, he was still good enough to win slams. But it seemed like his great mental strength was gone. He lost the desire to compete, to win.

      Borg was great on hard courts. He just came up against the one-two punch of Connors and McEnroe. I remember how Lendl had to battle to win the USO. He ended up having to beat both Connors and McEnroe to finally win it. If Borg had stayed in the game and kept trying, he might well have done it. Although Borg did try to win the USO. We forget that his career was cut short. He left when he was in his prime. For me it was absolutely devastating. Borg never talked to the media. It was only when I watched the documentary “McEnroe/Borg: Fire and Ice”, that I found out that Borg was struggling for a while and wanted out. I got some understanding of what he was going through. That’s why we have to appreciate these great champions while we have them.

  9. I want to congratulate Fed and his fans on this historic achievement! Beautifully done!!

    I was right to say Fed would face less competition in Cilic than Berdy although he destroyed both equally well! He sure is Maestro of Tennis! At his age this is just WOW!!!

  10. Too much was discussed about Cilic to give tough fight or infact win, but internally everyone was aware of this outcome. I can see many voted Fed to win in straights, unnecessary hype was created about Cilic.

    • Cilic was not hyped! The guy has won a slam. He’s had great results at Wimbledon. His game is ideally suited for grass. My issue with Cilic is his lack of mental strength. It’s his Achilles heel. That was obvious in the final. It’s something he has to work on if he wants to win another slam.

      The idea that Muller would have made more of a match out of it is just pure speculation. It’s easy to second guess after the fact. But the truth of the matter is that Mukler had to use up everything to beat Rafa. He did not have enough left to outlast Cilic. That’s the way it works. Either you play well enough and are fit enough to get through to the final or not. Muller not ever having even played in a slam final much less won one, would not have fared any better.

  11. Congrats to Hawkeye and the rest of the Federer fans here, i believe at the end of the year Federer will most likely have 20 GS , and probably win the WTF as well, the ATP seems to have gone from one player dominating to another player dominating, wherever is the competition ? ….

    • I think Rafa is going to have something to say about the USO. I think the disappointment of Wimbledon will only fire him up even more.

      Novak and Murray are question marks right now. I heard on ESPN that Novak may be going to the states to have his elbow checked out and possible surgery. Murray is taking some time off to deal with his hip issue.

      I think there should be some great competition during the NA summer season. Stan is defending USO champion. He will want to be in contention there. The young guys will be in the mix. Maybe Kyrgios will be healthy. Then there is Sascha Zverev and Thiem. Cilic could also be in the mix if he. SN bounce back from this loss.

      I think we have a lot of great tennis to look forward to this summer.

      • NNY, you forget Delpo.

        Stan has some knee issue during Wimbledon, I don’t know whether he will be ok in time for his USO title defense. As for Rafa, he has to continue with his more offensive play (like on clay this season) and good serving for the HC season. I think his ROS needs improvement.

        I think the competition on the HCs will be keener, as there are more players who can play well on the HCs than on grass. I doubt Cilic could regroup from this loss so soon to do damage at the NAHCs, I think he needs time to get over this loss.

        • Lucky,
          Don’t you think Cilic perhaps responds differently at US Open? He had no performance anxiety there in 2014. Also he was playing Kei, who had worn himself to the bone managing to make the final in 2014.

          It would be tough to regroup from this loss — making the final at Wimbledon and losing so limply. It has to be devastating. But maybe as it’s as Kevin mentioned:
          @ Kevin JULY 16, 2017 AT 3:11 PM
          I think you’re right, Lucky. It appears to me like he was overcome by the moment and the disappointment of not coming out playing his best in his biggest career moment thus far. I’m surprised as well because he has been in a major final before. But the Wimbledon final is what most players dream of more than anything, and he was probably shook over that. There have been plenty of guys who lost their first, or multiple, Wimby final and eventually won, so I believe Cilic will get it one day. He has really upped his game in the last year, making a major final and winning his first Masters over a good-form Murray last year. I really like Marin, I hope he gets this title one day.

          Wimbledon was where I first remember thinking wow, this guy Cilic will win a GS – 2009 Wimbledon. He was playing Tommy Haas in an early round and I was impressed with Marin’s mental fight (even tho he lost in 5 tough sets to Haas) and how well he moved for 6’6′. Much like Delpo, I remember thinking. Of course back then Gulbis was very much on my wish list. All of them being the same age.

          But yeah this will be a hard loss to move forward from. Wishing a speedy recovery to Marin!

          • Ratcliff, after reading about what happened to him, I realized that it’s not exactly a performance anxiety. He was upset because he had a foot blister that hampered his movement, and he started crying during the changeover (mid of second set I think, couldn’t remember) because it’s a Wimbledon final and he couldn’t do better (and I feel he knew he had no chance of a win).

            I really don’t think that he’s so weak mentally that he just had performance anxiety during a match when he’s fit enough to give it his all, and I’m glad that’s not the case. He said post match that he wants to put all these behind him (may not be his exact words but something to that effect) and gets ready for the rest of the season.

          • Thanks Lucky.

            That’s why. He will be fine. I always thought he was mentally tougher than Berdych. He would have competed and fought hard, without his blistered foot.

            Best of luck to Marin during NAHC season. Dang he needs a good blister prevention plan!!

        • Lucky,

          Thanks for reminding me of Delpo! I can’t forget about him! But he hasn’t been playing that well lately. Msybe he will be ready at the USO. As for Stan, I did not forget about the knee issue. We don’t know how serious it is. But he’s got some time to recover.

          I wonder how Goffin is doing. When will he be back? It’s true that there are more players who are good on hard court. If Kyrgios gets over his hip or whatever it is that has been bothering him, then he could do well. Then there is Tsonga and Monfils. I wonder if Querrey will be able to make another deep run.

          As for Cilic, maybe it will be too soon for him to bounce back from this loss. It has to hurt. I already stated why I think it’s going to be hard for him to get over it. We will have to wait and see.

          • Nny,

            Goffin is back playing in an Umag 250 clay tourny this week. I just filled out my TDC bracket and picked him to win!

            Monfils is playing on the grass in Newport. I didn’t see Querrey, Tsonga, or Kyrgios on any draws.

          • They pulled out, because Tomic is playing. What’s the point of playing then… No chances against him.
            Joking :))

          • Have you joined TDC yet Eugene?

            This one: http://www.tennisdrawchallenge.com/

            It’s the fun weekly picking group- WTA and ATP every week all season long. There’s no time to waste wondering about what coulda been at Wimby! lol..
            When Bastad, Gastaad, Umag, Bucharest, and Newport are about to start!

          • Oh Thank you rc very much. I saw you guys talking about it, but was not sure how to particiate. Appreciate. I’ll give it a try 😉

          • After you register and join fill out your desired brackt(s) — Be sure and check out the drop-down for Groups, Eugene!

            There are many groups to join but look for Jalep_wildguess, that’s where many of us are. Also there’s a Tenngrand group. Cheers, Eugene. You must be very happy about Federer winning another GS!

    • Hi Alison. As far as know, hawkeye’s favorite player is Nadal. But all other Fed fans will appreciate your comment, I’m sure.

  12. Hi i don’t post here but i read all the comments usually and LuckyStar NNY VR kevin are my fav posters, keep posting forever ? Congrats to Fed and i feel so sorry for Cilic, i believe his 2014 was not a fluke and after reaching Wimbledon final i feel he will definitely win more grandslams.

    • Fed deserves congratulations for this latest achievement. I certainly hope that Cilic can bounce back from this tough loss.

      • Cilic will have more belief now that he knows he isn’t a one hit wonder and was a win away from another slam. Cilic will proabably win at least another slam in his career. I think he’s only 28 so he’s got a lot of time.

    • Alison,

      I honestly believe it! I don’t think we have heard the last of Rafa. I think he is going to be very motivated to do well in the NA summer hard court season. He is healthy and playing well.

      I don’t think that Fed is going to win the USO. I think Rafa is not done yet for this year. I also think that there are others who will make it interesting.

      Nice to have you back!
      ?

      • Rafa will be a major force at the USO. He shouldve beat Fed at the Aus Open and USO courts suite him better. At this stage, he’s actually my pick to win it.

        • I agree with JC and the rest who believe that Rafa and Fed will be the major forces at the USO. The AO final was very close and the court there favored Fed slightly more as it’s quicker this year, even quicker than the USO court.

          Though Fed won that one, he had to fight hard playing a few five setters, so on HCs, there will be more serious competition for both of them. Its unlike clay and grass, when Rafa and Fed are clearly a class above the rest on their respective dominant surface. So, no. 16 or no.20 may not come easily, or may not even come.

      • At this point I can’t see anyone other than Fed or Rafa winning it. I can’t believe I’m saying this I’m just so happy haha. #Fedal

  13. Only thing I’m happy about is Fed winning his 19th. Other than that I’m sad for Marin not fully fit during the match and for it not being too exciting of a final. Super happy for Roger though ?

    • Happy for ya, Benny! I was thinking about this the other day: If you think about it, Fed has sort of come full-circle since his landmark win over Sampras at 2001 Wimbledon. By beating Sampras that day, he himself prevented Pete from being able get that coveted 8th title. If only Fed knew that day that by beating Sampras, he was setting himself up to pass Pete for the title record 16 years later… He wouldn’t have believed it haha! Sure, Pete did play Wimbledon the following year, but he was in such poor form that there’s no way he was going to win it. In 2001, Fed seriously played possibly the best match of his career imo to beat the guy that almost nobody had been able to beat at Wimbledon. Personally, I don’t doubt that Pete would have won #8 that year had Fed not beat him. There is no way in hell that Tim Herman was beating him in the Quarters or Goran in the semis. It would have been a 2000 rematch with Rafter. Maybe Rafter could have beaten him the second time around, but I wouldn’t have put money on… Fed was punching way above his weight that day, and that was proven by his comparatively shitty performance against Henman in the next round. But in that one match against Pete, Fed showed that he was the Wimbledon player of the future. Looking back on it on this day, it truly was a passing of the torch from Pete to Fed. Fed just didn’t light his fire with the torch until 2003 haha! 🙂

      • Kevin, really enjoyed reading your comment. Cheers!
        Benny, I am so happy too after Roger managed to win his 19th career slam. I was nervous before this final. 1 year ago, what if someone told us he will win AO and Wimbledon? I am so thankful right now. If I knew this is the last slam he won, that would be enough to feel the same.
        People start talking about US Open 2017. Does anyone know what’s the seeds situation at this moment? Where are Rafa & Roger at the moment?

    • I feel the same, Benny. I’m a big Cilic fan and wouldn’t have been devastated had he won. It certainly would have been nice to have a better match, but I’m not sure who could provide that when Roger is playing like this, except maybe prime Nole.

      • Cilic in 2016 and Cilic today were like chalk and cheese in comparison and no it wasnt because of how Fed played. Cilic beat himself today.

        • Only to an extent, Jim. First, Cilic wasn’t beating himself in Fed’s service games, not when Roger was serving 76% 1st serves. After a nervous start, Federer wasn’t getting broken by anyone today.

          In his own service games, Cilic was terrible at the start, but started serving much better after his breakdown. Yes, he made a lot of errors, but he was getting continuous pressure, even on his 1st serve and almost always on his 2nd. Again, Roger played a large role in how Cilic played.

          No doubt Cilic today was a shadow of what he was in 2014. But Federer played a lot better today than he did in 2014.

          So no, not a simple case of Cilic beating himself.

          • Fed had to do barely anything to win this match. Cilic was hitting mid court forehands in the net every 2nd shot. Even the commentators were saying how much Cilic had lost the plot but that’s OK, you believe what you want to believe.

            I’m over and out.

          • Nice way not to answer my argument, Jim. I’ll believe what I think the facts support. I’m also not the one who has to rationalize a silly prediction about the match.

            Do you think Roger serving at 76% first serves had nothing to do with winning the match? That’s half the games. In the other half, Cilic starting serving better after his meltdown. Against a lesser player, many of those serves wouldn’t have come back, or wouldn’t have come back nearly as hard/deep. Again, Fed had something to do with that.

            To be clear, I’m not claiming that Cilic didn’t play badly overall. He did. But you (along with some others here) are making the much stronger claim that Roger had almost nothing to do with this win. That claim isn’t made more plausible by the fact that some commentators seem to agree with it.

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