Three Grand Slams. Three Grand Slam finals featuring Novak Djokovic against a non-Big 3 opponent.
That has been the story of 2021, and it adds another chapter in Sunday’s Wimbledon championship match. After Daniil Medvedev (Australian Open) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (French Open) came up short against Djokovic on the biggest stages in tennis, Matteo Berrettini gets a shot this time around.
Although Berrettini has never played in a major final and had previously been to the semis only once (2019 U.S. Open), his current run at the All-England Club has come as no surprise whatsoever. The world No. 9 cemented his status as one of Djokovic’s top threats when he rolled to the Queen’s Club title last month. Remaining undefeated on grass this summer (now 11-0), Berrettini’s Wimbledon fortnight includes wins over Guido Pella, Botic Van de Zandschulp, Aljaz Bedene, Ilya Ivashka, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Hubert Hurkacz.
Berrettini has struck 101 aces throughout this event; nobody else has hit more than 65 (Denis Shapovalov). The Italian has been broken only five times, including just twice in five matches against opponents other than Auger-Aliassime.
Of course, the underdog now has to go up against the best returner–and best player in general–in Djokovic. The top-seeded Serb has reeled off 18 sets in a row since dropping his opening set of the tournament to Jack Draper. He has disposed of Draper, Kevin Anderson, Denis Kudla, Cristian Garin, Marton Fucsovics, and Shapovalov, although Shapovalov at least managed to be competitive during a 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-5 loss.
As the Canadian’s effort indicates, an opponent with a big serve and firepower from the baseline can give Djokovic some problems. As that scoreline also indicates, however, there is nobody on tour who is more clutch than the world No. 1 in the pressure-packed moments.
Berrettini can make this interesting if he serves extremely well, but Djokovic’s return will always get the edge over Berrettini’s serve. And the biggest discrepancy is Djokovic’s experience on this stage versus Berrettini’s inexperience. Mentally, the 19-time Grand Slam champion will be too tough when it matters.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
WWW?
Well I hope chunky hunky can get one set. Let’s make the final a bit competitive!
Djokovic in 4, maybe 5 sets.
Berrettini can push Djokovic this time, but I don’t think he can win unless he plays at an even higher level than he’s already played, and Djokovic plays worse. Berrettini is another level above Shapovalov and Djokovic was lucky to scrape through with a 3-0 victory in that one.
Djokovic also looked tentative at various stages of the Shapo match where he was almost willing the ball over the net like he was still in juniors, and I’m not sure you can fix that confidence-wise in 2 days. We will see.
In my Bracket i picked Berretini…but…i think Novak will win his 20th…but if Berretini can outlast Novak in a Bo5,i will be very surprised!…He sounds determined!
Your picks are risky but so often right MA. A Berretini win would be brilliant though head over heart says Djokovic (and Im a fan so heart as well)
Hehehe…Yeah Big Al!…At 1st i picked Nole..but then i thought he maybe ‘drained’ a little bit after that FO win..tho even when i picked Berretini,my heart still says Nole esp after seen his easy draw….
I think Berretini has a chance too…if he wise enuff not to make the same mistakes like Tsitsi,Thiem,Musetti who took off the pressure from the pedal after leading soo comfortably!…Like u,i also hope for a good final!
I just heard PAt McEnroe give 6-1 odds and BG give 10-1.
I would like to see 20/20/20 and they can all retire
In the AO final, Nole easily beat Med 3-0.
The FO final was a lot tougher as he dropped the first 2 sets.
If Berrettini is more consistent than Tsitsipas, he can win.
Hope Berretini serves REALLY well…if he does, he may be able to get a set.
or two.
or three. It’s not out of the question. Don’t count your chickens before they hatch.
What could Matteo possibly do that denis didn’t in the semi? Denis was serving and hitting huge like Matteo does and his backhand isn’t as big of a liability as Matteo’s, not to mention he’s a much better mover. Matteo might get a set but I just don’t see how he can take down Novak in best or 5, especially in a final.
Shapo’s biggest liability in that match was nerves. He tightened up in the most important points, whereas Novak did the opposite. If Denis hadn’t done that, he easily could have won one or both of the first two sets. If Berretini (who is a few years older) can keep his cool and play his game, I am sure he can win. Not saying he will, but I think he will play the big points better than Shapo did.
Yeah!….Very agree Joe!
Berrettini is a better player than Shapo! Shapo’s game is basically going for broke, and once his serve is being returned with interest, he would normally lose in the rallies.
Shapo might have improved his game, by serving better and with better approaches to the net and that’s why he made the sets close but he had not improved his rallying skills, and against someone of Djoko’s calibre, his game wasn’t enough to give him a win.
Djoko might not be playing his best tennis but he varied his game well enough, mixing in S&V and approaching the net more often (and winning most of the points) than Shapo did. The precision of Djoko’s shots was incredible, how many times when on the run he was able to hit a lob that barely touched the baseline of the opposite court that frustrated Shapo so often. Shapo himself just couldn’t do the same when made to hit on the run, that’s the difference between players like Shapo and the big three (plus Murray).
Berrettini actually could play well on grass and he could anticipate well where his opponents’ shots were going (I was both impressed and surprised by that). As long as he served well and not get nervous especially nearing the end of set(s) I think he could win a set and make a match out of the final.
Of course, the most likely winner is still Djoko, who’s far too experienced for these young players.
Novak in four but I’m telling you guys…Matteo can really make this a match if he serves well, which he has all tournament. I think Berrettini could really shock us and surprise Novak to an extent.
Djoko in 3. Cant remember the last time djoko was bothered by big serving. In a final, even more so.
Actually, Fed’s serve gave him fits in the final two years ago…except in the tiebreaks and a couple of other key points! Of course, that was more precision than speed from Roger.
I hope he is the Del Potro, not the Raonic
Djokovic is 34 and mental fatigue is likely a factor given how close Wimbledon is to RG. The signs were there in the Shapo match.
A 3-0 prediction is optimistic indeed. It’s possible Berrettini capitulates making the prediction come true but if both players perform consistent with their historical performance coming in, Berrettini wins ‘at least’ a set.
“Berrettini can make this interesting if he serves extremely well, but Djokovic’s return will always get the edge over Berrettini’s serve.”
There’s one thing you’re not taking into consideration, and that is their respective ages. “Always” doesn’t exist in this game or any sport for that matter.
Berrettini is primed to give this the shake of his life.
What does this mean..I don’t think djoko is going to let go of the oppty to touch 20
Djokovic isn’t the only variable in the equation.
Berretini is a slow mover..Djokovic will exploit this totally
Djokovic is getting older and showing signs of mental fatigue. Berrettini will exploit that. Berrettini is just as opportunistic as Djokovic.
Right…
But you urself predicted djoko in 4 isn’t it
Yes, but I’ll be surprised if Berrettini doesn’t win a set, all things considered.
What I’m worried about is Berrettini having too much respect and kindness for Djokovic. His competitiveness has been a major weapon against previous opponents.
Yep, Berrettini isnt as competitive as previous matches which is unbelievable given it’s a final.
Djokovich has started really poorly and yet Berrettini was unable to break him and has now been broken himself. Useless. Gonna be a massacre unless a miracle happens. Jack Draper did better!
It’s weird because Berrettini is hitting shots with almost no concern if he wins the point. He hit that smash in the net and was half way walking back to the baseline before he finished the swing.
Ohh very agree M!…I hate when final turned out like this!..It should be competitive!
Hi darling. Looks as if we might have a match, unless chunky hunky crumbles…
His first serve looks a bit AWOL
Yep, crumbling!
Hey M!….Hehehe…He IS crumbles now M!…Let’s c whether he can bounce back!
Yeah!…So far he left his 1st serves at home!…Y he didn’t bring with him on this important day,i donno!🙉🙈
Djokovic cant believe his luck. We havent seen this Berrettini in months.
I agree! It’s so bizarre, Berretinni is missing everything!