Wimbledon final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Federer

It will be Novak Djokovic vs. Roger Federer for the Wimbledon title on Sunday afternoon. The Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray along with Pete Ziebron of Tennis Acumen preview the action and make their picks.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Roger Federer

Ricky: Federer and Rafael Nadal occasionally produce the instant classics that live in history. But Federer vs. Djokovic delivers the goods on the most consistent basis of the Big 3 (or even Big 4) matchups. And another good one is almost certainly in store. Federer has dropped only three sets this fortnight and he is coming off an awesome performance against Nadal in the semis. Djokovic surrendered just two total sets during his trip to the title match. The world No. 1 leads this extensive head-to-head series 25-22 and 2-1 on grass. That doesn’t mean much. But 2-0 in Wimbledon finals and 8-2 in their last 10 overall are numbers worth nothing. Given that Djokovic also took care of business in an easier semifinal, he gets the nod. Djokovic in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-4.

Pete: Historically, this may very well prove to be a pivotal match with respect to the final total of majors won by the Big 3. With a win, Federer increases his margin to six over Djokovic (and three over Nadal). A Djokovic victory elevates his tally to 16–two behind Nadal and four behind Federer and concurrently cements the fact that he will have won four of the last five majors. Since the last time they met at a slam (2016 Australian Open), Federer has added Ivan Ljubicic to his team–a man who has beaten Djokovic, Nadal, and even Federer himself multiple times. The Ljubicic presence has enabled Federer to creatively refine his game-plan (as evidenced against Nadal) and he will look to successfully implement these tactics in the final against Djokovic. Federer in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-4.

Cheryl: Federer-Djokovic doesn’t necessarily pack the punch that a Nadal-Federer final would, but it’s hard to complain about the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds squaring off for the title at Wimbledon. Djokovic enjoys a slight head-to-head edge over Federer, but he’s won the lion’s share of their most recent matches. In fact, the last time Federer got a ‘W’ over Djokovic was in round-robin play at the ATP Finals back in 2015. Both men have enjoyed a great fortnight, but Federer had to face Nadal in the semis while Djokovic’s opponent was Roberto Bautista Agut. Although both matches went four sets, the Federer-Nadal battle was the more physical and certainly more emotional. Going into Sunday’s match I give Djokovic the edge, as he’s historically been able to handle the Federer serve and because of the fact that Federer has never managed to beat both Nadal and Djokovic in the same slam–or even at any tournament other than the 2010 ATP Finals. Djokovic in 4: 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6.

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59 Comments on Wimbledon final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Federer

  1. Thank goodness Djoko lost against Thiem at the French. Against Fedal, this guy is an ice cold machine. To take down the king of grass down in three wimbledon finals is other worldly.
    Surely Federer’s title of king of wimbledon is under threat in a few years :O

    Commiserations to the Fed fans.As a Rafan, we encountered this same feeling last year. Maybe not as intense as you guys are feeling now. But Fed is some freak of nature. To play Rafa and Nole b2b and almost finish it.

  2. What a match! Congrats to Novak and his fans! He never stopped believing! Great win!

    However,I think Fed is the one who deserves all the admiration! He played unbelievable and he was the better player in all aspects. Those two match points were just unfortunate! He came so close to writing a history yet again! And his endurance and physical fitness: wow, just wow!!!

    Fed is not going anywhere, that much I can assure you! He is simply amazing! I thought he deserved this win more than Nole: he had tougher draw, he had beaten Rafa, he was wining his sets more convincingly and the was first to break in the fifth!
    Great match! Sorry Fedfans I know it’s a tough loss to digest..,but be proud of your man! He is the living legend!

  3. By the way, was anyone else reminded of the Way Nole saved one BP in the semi last year against Rafa with the cross court short angle FH on the 2nd MP

  4. Here’s my take on this match. First, I don’t think it was the same quality as 2014, although Fed’s play for much of it was extremely high. Second, unlike 2015, Fed didn’t choke in this match, which makes me feel much better. I do think he tightened up a bit in the big points, particularly in the 1st and 2nd TBs. But Novak also did that at times. Overall, though, I think Fed came and played as well as he could and it just wasn’t good enough in the end. Obviously, there wasn’t much between the players, and you could make the case that Fed was the better player overall (forgetting the result, obviously). You couldn’t have said that about any of their slams from 2014-15, so in that respect I thought this match was quite different.

    Probably the only thing tactically that I would have changed was that Fed played too tentatively in the 5th set. He chipped back too many second serve returns, and didn’t hit his FH as aggressively as I think he could and should have. I think he used the slice effectively, but overall didn’t play as aggressively as he did against Rafa. When he did, he generally had success. I don’t know how much fatigue played a role, but it must have played some.

    • Joe..dont you think he was tired..coming over the bh on returns takes a lot..neither were hitting hard last 8 to 10 games..fed was slicing as its easier than hitting over the bh..fh lost its pop only due to fatigue..the whole match lost its pace and depth last 8 to 10 games..the quality was much better first half of fifth

      roger played better overall match but novak won the big points..fed losing the bp in first set with wild fh was costly..and he played badly in all 3 tbs..glaring misses

      • Yes, Sanju, you’re probably right that fatigue did play a key role. But also right that Novak simply played more of the big points better, particularly in the TBs.

  5. More aces, more points won, more points one on first/second serve(percentage wise), better winner to UE ratio.

    Just dont understand how Fed lost. Maybe he should have taken a bit more time, instead he just continued to play quick. But Djoker won it , Fed did not lose it.

    Fed continued to hold serve after he was broken while serving for match. Just goes to show how mentally strong he is . And Djoker has done it thrice against Fed, being 2 straight MPs down twice on Fed’s serve.

    This one is going to sting to Fed. Race for world number 2 is interesting. Rafa defending 1000 points for Toronto/Montreal and Fed defending 600 points for Cincy. And the difference right now is 485 points. Which means if we take out the points which are to be defended, its only 85 points !!

  6. Benny and co, have I ever used that language on you or anybody else. You can disagree with some one but not be incredibly rude and aggressive. Check the other Wimbledon final that went to a 5th set, and fed had the upper hand in that and still lost. He broke Djoko and still lost that was 2014 or 2015. It’s the same thing here again. How he can just miss it like that again and again is frustrating. But that does not warrant you insulting me. That’s childish and uncalled for.

    Later people will say that Djoko fans are rude and obnoxious. Fed fans can be just as bad. Very difficult commenting on a tennis forum when people are so rude and insulting. Fed had two championship points in the US open, same result. It’s so disappointing. Notice I have never insulted or used curse words on anyone but stating my opinion is a crime.

    Have a nice day everyone. I will kindly get lost as requested.

    • Happy, in 2014, in 5th set, there was only 1 break . I think Djoker saved bBP in fifth set in 2014 but he never lost serve.

    • Perhaps, Happy, if you took as much time and thought in analyzing the match as you do in defending yourself, you wouldn’t draw such reactions. Your comment on the match was abruptly rude in tone and uninformed in content, ignoring the many differences between this match and earlier ones. Were you so cocksure that Fed would fail to convert those championship points at the time, after he had just served two aces? Somehow I doubt it.

    • Well, I think you should stick around, if it suits you at times. As a Novak fan this site is not so good for support in a match like this one was. But I don’t expect it to be.

      I go on twitter in cases like this. There are genuine Nole fans to be connected with there. I wish you the best, Happy.

      • Sorry, but I have had it with all of these digs about this site not being good for Nole fans! Enough already! I have not been disrespectful to him and managed to deal with Rafa’s loss without dissing other players.

        I do not like being lumped in with those who may not like Nole or who have been disrespectful to him.

        My comments were pretty neutral, since I had no favorite in this match. I called it like I saw it. I have given all due respect to both players for a magnificent wffurt.

      • Sorry, but I have had it with all of these digs about this site not being good for Nole fans! Enough already! I have not been disrespectful to him and managed to deal with Rafa’s loss without dissing other players.

        I do not like being lumped in with those who may not like Nole or who have been disrespectful to him.

        My comments were pretty neutral, since I had no favorite in this match. I called it like I saw it. I have given all due respect to both players for a magnificent wffurt.

  7. Actually I’m full of admiration for all three of them – Rafa, Fed, Djoko. They’re truly very special tennis players and we may never see players like them again once they retired. They have made each other become even better tennis players throughout their careers, maybe they’ll retire at the same time?

    • Well said. Yes, I thought Djoker looked more tired of the two. Djoker has not reached 2014-15 level . In 2014-15 he was the better player in the finals , served better , less UE and more aggressive. I thought it was a match where Djoker lost focus twice.

      But right now I feel on HC Djoker and Fed are ahead of Rafa . They both start favorites against Rafa, so Rafa needs to maintain his 2 ranking before USO in order to have a good draw in USO.

  8. hey guys..cut happy some slack..he is not trolling..he is just saying fed had no business losing it and hence said same script as always (he has lost many close ones against novak)..he is not being disrespectful to Fed at all..who can and who will after that match..

  9. I hate to say it guys, but at this moment I cannot see how Novak won’t end up being viewed by the majority of people as the “GOAT” when all is said and done… It will either take one of the young guys to magically become all-time good, or for Novak to suffer another injury. As long as he just ends up tied with either Rafa or Fed for the most majors, he will just have the edge is just about every other way to measure it. He has been without question the player of the decade. Rafa has his time in 2013, and Fed had his in 2012, and they both shined during Novak’s injury slump. Novak will likely end up with the most year-end #1’s. He may even end up catching Fed’s time at #1 record. He will have his majors pretty well spread out among the 4 tournaments. He’s won every Masters. While head-to-head records are very subjective and not the end-all-be-all, they are still a factor. And he will probably end up with the edge in his head-to-heads with Fed and Rafa. He has no holes in his game. He honestly might just be the greatest tennis player overall that I’ve ever seen… He has dominated Fed and Rafa at the majors for years now. His mental toughness is unmatched. I could go on and on. If I had to bet on one of them being considered the greatest ever by most people when all is said and done, I would have to bet on Novak. He’s just unbelievable.

    • Yep Kevin, I said it before, that Djoko may end up having the most majors, most Masters, most WTF titles, most YE no. 1, most weeks at no. 1 and the most prize money. And he may also hang on to his positive H2H vs his two main rivals – fellow ATGs.

      When all these happen, its hard not to pronounce him as the Goat.

      • But people will still love Fedal more. He can’t win that. And I’m not saying that with hate. Probably he deserves it. But for some reasons, many people don’t receive that well his vibe. I never liked his staff members. And the things his father said about Fed. Just can’t answer that question. Why can’t I like Novak as much as Fedal. I don’t know. There is no logic here.
        If he does what you said, I have no problem in admitting his Greatness.

          • Looking at stats now. He’s been a better player overall, but not when in mattered most – in the tb.
            You’re right amy. That’s so subjective. Imagine Rafa beating him last year if roof remained open in Wimbledon SF and Fed closing the match today. Novak would already have 14 slams and not 16. Very low margins.

          • Yeah cant agree more, Kevin. He certainly will surpass Fed in terms of the hard court slams. Judging by the way he has been performing in Wimbly, he may have a case to be the equal of Federer at Wimbledon even if he wins a title or two less since he has beaten him in 3 finals there already.

            The only place there is a country mile between him and any of his fellow goats is RG which Rafa has managed to make a bastion much more so than Fed. But he may encroach there too in the coming years considering the form he is in

            He had no business winning the final considering how brilliant Fed was but still he managed to win it on Federer’s turf when Federer himself had said that the stars were aligned for him. Fed had this perfectly. He was on course to
            1. Win a grand slam beating Rafa and Nole b2b
            2. Win after losing first set in the final
            3. Win even after having lost two tiebreaks, which are his specialty
            4. Win in the 5th set

            But Nole just hung tough. This reminded me so much of the AO2012, when Rafa defeated Fed and had Novak on the ropes, up a break in the fifth and thought he would finally vanquish his demons but Nole came roaring back. The same thing happened here, Roger beats Rafa and almost takes out Novak.

            Novak seems to come out on the right end of the close matches more often than not
            1. AO2012 semi
            2. AO2012 Final
            3. USO2011 semi
            4. USO2010 semi
            5. AO2013 4R
            6. AO2015 semi and also the Simon match
            7. Wim 2014
            8. Wim 2018 semi
            9. Kevin anderson qf at Wimby

            His losses are
            1. AO2014 qf
            2. RG 2013 semi
            3. Thiem RG 2019 (thank god for that)

          • Come on vmk, I could also make a list for Rafa too, or Fed for that matter.

            I don’t understand this ‘the stars are aligned’ for Fed to win this Wimbledon. If it is so, then Fed should not be having Rafa in his SF, and Djoko should. I mean you expect Fed to beat them B2B to win his 9th Wimbledon title at the ripe old age of 37/38? Maybe Fed could do that in 2007, or 2012 but not now.

            When I saw the draw, I knew Djoko would most likely be the one winning this Wimbledon, because frankly speaking, his draw was not so difficult for a player of his caliber. And, Djoko wasn’t even playing his best tennis to get to the final; had Fed been a bit more fresh physically, perhaps he could hang tough to win in one or two of the TBs, or took one of his two Championships points to win the title.

            I know Djoko’s defence and baseline game would be tough for anyone, he also served well when he’s in trouble. The fact that Fed could still have his chances to win the match said a lot about Fed’s level, it’s a pity he had to go through Rafa and then Djoko, something quite impossible to do for anyone, esp when you’re coming to 38.

      • Sorry but can we stop going on about the goat thing? It’s impossible to make exact comparisons between different eras. There is no goat, just subjective opinions.

  10. Haha! Just looked at Ricky’s Twitter: ‘Federer should be up 4 sets to love ‘
    Yes indeed.
    Fed botching 3 tiebreaks on grass is something no-one would have predicted. Unprecedented.

    • Absolutely, Fed should have won this match in 4, if not straights. He was untouchable on serve for nearly four sets, but his game let him down in the TBs.

      I don’t think Fed is going to retire any time soon, and I don’t think he’s done winning slams.

  11. Thanks Ratcliff.

    Joe, I was not surprised when Djoko broke fed. It has happened before. Djoko’s return is just scary. Fed was the better player overall and still lost. It has happened too many times. It’s so painful. Djoko is just so good that you can’t give him an inch bc if you do, he will take a Mile and eviscerate you. He does that time and again. The guy is unflappable. You have to be on your game and not blink to beat him bc he’s just like Rafa he never quits.

    Fed losing his serve and the match while serving for the championship is just unbearably painful. How? Why? If it was Rafa, I can understand bc rafas serve is not as good as feds.

    Djoko is so dangerous in major finals that honestly I don’t like fedal facing him except at the French. He has not lost to them in a major final since 2013 I believe.

    The disappointing thing is, even when fedal are the better players overall in a match against him, he still wins bc he is such a clutch player.

    Djoko may end up being the goat. His game is so good, I think his only area of weakness (if u can call it that), is that he’s not as good in the net as fedal. The guy is incredible.

    He’s the favorite to win the US open followed by fed and then Rafa bc until Rafa upgrades his serve, it won’t be easy. But hey anything is possible. Maybe we’ll hav a different US open winner like Wawrinka bc we know he can beat anybody wen he’s on his game and he’s the only one that has regularly dealt with Djoko in a major final in recent years.

    • And Stan beat him in two slam finals – FO2015 and USO2016, so nope, he’s beatable in a slam final.

      I feel Fed was a bit unlucky, not only during the match, but it’s also the luck of the draw. Had it be Djoko vs Rafa in the SF, Fed would then be fresher for the final and I’m sure a fresher Fed playing the way he played would beat Djoko or Rafa in the final.

      Fed at almost 38 having to beat Rafa and Djoko back to back was asking too much of him; even though Djoko wasn’t playing his best tennis.

      It’s also no guarantee that either of Fed, Rafa and Djoko would win the USO, because it seems that conditions there in New York was tough last year and maybe tough this year too. Djoko has to get to the final first before winning it but Djoko did look to me a bit off physically in this Wimbledon final. Both he and Fed have to recover first, after such an emotionally and physically gruelling match.

      • Stan Wawrinka has not played well for a long time. At this point it is hard to have confidence in his overall game going into the US Open. Novak is the favorite again.

  12. That’s scary… The fact that he wins even when his opponent is better. It’s unfair somehow. I feel like Fed had a better chance with the old Wimby format (no tb in 5th set) He could still hold his serves.

  13. I want to add that anyone can learn something from Djokovic. Even if the odds are against you (15:40) give it your best shot, and you’ll love yourself next morning, even if you lose. Never give up.

  14. If anything, Fed should be loving tiebreaks, even more so against a returner like Djokovic. He won his fair share of breakers to break opponents hearts at the 2007,2008 and 2009 final.But tiebreaks really test the mental strength of a player and especially if a player wins three tiebreaks under pressure in a final, against a server like Federer, there are no points for guessing who the mentally stronger player was. If someone had told me, that the winner of the match will win three tbs while the runner up will win the other two sets by securing multiple breaks, I would have bet my house that Federer had won

    • Not a fan of tiebreaks, but at 12 all in the 5th…! I think first to 10 point tb would be better than the standard first to 7.

  15. What an amazing match. Federer’s level was very high through the match though Djoko was up and down. I thought Fed was the better player overall but Djoko proves again when he’s the mentally toughest guy out there (not to mention doing it time and again with the crowd against him). If GOAT = most number of slams, which I think it should be, GOAT= Nole. Which as a big Nole fan, I think is amazing and beautiful, he doesn’t get enough credit/love/admiration from fans in general. That being said feel sad for Fed given how ridiculously good his level was and comisserations to his fans

      • I agree that it is premature to call Novak the GOAT. Let the top three finish their careers and retire. That is when their careers can be assessed. For myself, they are all GOATS. They should each be celebrated for their unique individual contributions to this sport.

  16. https://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/video/index.html

    Novak made it clear how Pro- Roger the crowd was. He said he dealt with it by hearing it as “Novak Novak”. Lol! He also said that his return game was completely off today and Roger was serving lights out. He just managed to play his game when it mattered, in the TB’s.
    Novak certainly is responsible for dealing more heart-breakers to Fed. I think if they continue in the same vein, Fed may have a smaller h2h difference with Rafa than with Novak, in different directions, obviously.

  17. Of course they are all legends and we have been lucky enough to be in an era when all three have been playing at the peak of their abilities for such a long time. He doesn’t have the most slams yet but in my opinion it is very very likely he will end his career with the most number of slams. The only way I don’t see that happening is a serious injury so I don’t think it’s as premature as most Fedal fans on this board would claim or like to think

  18. So Novak stops Rafa from winning Australia and Roger from winning Wimbledon. Rafa stops Roger from winning France. what will the US open bring

  19. http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2019/07/novak-djokovic-roger-federer-wimbledon-final-live-blog-history-grass-major-centre-court/83530/

    Novak making it clear again and again that he is going after the “historic” #1 which I assume is the most weeks at #1. Looks like all the Roger records that the Fed fans taunted the Rafans for are going to be eclipsed by Novak.(#1, WTF titles, YE #1 etc)
    Novak on 16 slams span of 2008-2019.
    Rafa on 16 slams span 2005-2017
    Fed on 16 slams span 2003-2010. Fed did it in the least time. Unfortunately Rafa has been sandwiched between the two eras. Now only if Rafa can somehow clinch the USO 😀

    • If nothing else tennis is surprising. Djokovic had a poor two years from mid 2016 to mid 2018 so don’t just assume he’s going to win everything for the next few years. He’s 32 and not getting any younger.

  20. As I assumed before the match. The fans didn’t help him. Too much cheering against Djoko – only fueled him more and made more Fed tense in the tbs.

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