By prevailing Down Under, Wawrinka became the first man outside the Big 4 of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray to win a major since Juan Martin Del Potro at the 2009 U.S. Open. The Cilic-Nishikori showdown signaled the first first time since the 2005 Australian Open (Marat Safin d. Lleyton Hewitt) that a slam title match was without either Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic.Check out ESPN’s entire list of men’s singles Grand Slam winners and runner-ups.This year’s borderline hard-to-believe results beg the question: is a new era upon us or will the Big 4 restore order to the Grand Slam proceedings in 2015?
My Top Sportsbooks is predicting–at least for the 2015 Australian Open–that Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, and Federer will be back on top. Not surprisingly, the two first-time major winners in 2014 (Wawrinka and Cilic) have the next-best odds to win it all this upcoming January in Melbourne. Does this mean the sudden trend–if you can call it that–of new slam champions will end?
There are, of course, legitimate arguments on both sides.
Big 4 apologists can easily explain the respective career-changing tournaments for Wawrinka and Cilic. In Australia, Murray was basically a non-factor coming off offseason back surgery and Nadal was a shadow of his real self in the final against Wawrinka due to a back injury. Heading into the title match, the Spaniard had been 12-0 lifetime versus Wawrinka and 26-0 in total sets. Nadal may have lost the opening set fair and square was “outplayed” by Wawrinka according to Sports Illustrated, but both head-to-head history and Wawrinka’s performance in sets two through four suggest it would have been one-way traffic for Nadal the rest of the way had he been anywhere close to 100 percent. In New York, Nadal did not even play because of a wrist problem and a recently-married Djokovic had been slumping the entire hard-court summer.
Yes, the Big 4 had its fair share of problems in 2014. But what’s to say that same story won’t continue in 2015, thus once again opening the door for guys like Wawrinka and Cilic? At this point, Nadal being hurt for at least one Grand Slam per year has to be accepted as a given. He has missed two of the last three U.S. Opens, three of the last nine Grand Slams, and has been less than 100 percent for countless others since 2009. Similarly, Murray’s physical issues are also unlikely to ever go away entirely. As for Federer, he is 33 years old and has not won a major since Wimbledon in 2012.
But if the outside contenders continue to win more and more slams, it won’t be merely as a result of the Big 4’s struggles. The bottom line is that the rest of the tour is getting better and better in its own right–and doing whatever it takes to get better and better. Wawrinka (Magnus Norman), Cilic (Goran Ivanisevic), Nishikori (Michael Chang), Milos Raonic (Ivan Ljubicic) and Grigor Dimitrov (Roger Rasheed) to name just some have committed to working hard and surrounding themselves with respected coaches. Both Raonic and Dimitrov reached the semis of Wimbledon before being overshadowed by Cilic and Nishikori in New York. While there are those who will discount aforementioned results as one-off performances, it’s not like they came entirely out of nowhere. Raonic previously finished runner-up at the 2013 Rogers Cup and made it to the French Open quarters. Cilic’s record this season was 41-16 even before the U.S. Open. Nishikori is 40-10 this season and he was destroying Nadal on Nadal’s own surface (clay) in the Madrid final before getting injured.
It’s clear the Wawrinkas and Cilics of the world will have their chances again in 2015. But they will need help, which is exactly what they got this year. If Nadal keeps getting hurt, if Djokovic’s inconsistency continues, if rumors of Federer’s decline are not great exaggerated, and if Murray can’t become the Murray of 2012 and ’13, the door will remain open.
But those are big “ifs.”
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With 20/20 hindsight this thread makes interesting reading. It’ll be intriguing to revisit at the end of 2015.
With the French team in disarray It’s looking more and more likely Federer will finally realise his ambition to lead Switzerland to a Davis Cup win.
I predict: (i’m gonna be wrong, probably)
Tennis Grand slam predictions 2015:
AO: Djokovic RUP=Federer
FO: Nadal RUP=Djokovic
W: Djokovic RUP=Federer
UO: W=Raonic RUP=Nishikori
RAONIC
POSPISIL
POSPISIL?! Really?? No chance!
Australian: DJOK d NISHIKORI
French: RAFA d DJOK
Wimbledon: FED d RAONIC (heart over head)
U.S: NISHI d RAONIC (really losing it now)
^I get this feeling this Pospisil shout was probably a joke that went over my head!