Will the Big 4 restore slam order in 2015?

September 16, 2014 Ricky Blogs 73

The 2014 Grand Slam season will be remembered for bookend stunners. We thought it could not get more surprising than Stan Wawrinka’s triumph at the Australian Open, but it did just that when Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori squared off in the U.S. Open final earlier this month.

By prevailing Down Under, Wawrinka became the first man outside the Big 4 of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray to win a major since Juan Martin Del Potro at the 2009 U.S. Open. The Cilic-Nishikori showdown signaled the first first time since the 2005 Australian Open (Marat Safin d. Lleyton Hewitt) that a slam title match was without either Federer, Nadal, or Djokovic.Check out ESPN’s entire list of men’s singles Grand Slam winners and runner-ups.This year’s borderline hard-to-believe results beg the question: is a new era upon us or will the Big 4 restore order to the Grand Slam proceedings in 2015?

My Top Sportsbooks is predicting–at least for the 2015 Australian Open–that Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, and Federer will be back on top. Not surprisingly, the two first-time major winners in 2014 (Wawrinka and Cilic) have the next-best odds to win it all this upcoming January in Melbourne. Does this mean the sudden trend–if you can call it that–of new slam champions will end?

There are, of course, legitimate arguments on both sides.

Big 4 apologists can easily explain the respective career-changing tournaments for Wawrinka and Cilic. In Australia, Murray was basically a non-factor coming off offseason back surgery and Nadal was a shadow of his real self in the final against Wawrinka due to a back injury. Heading into the title match, the Spaniard had been 12-0 lifetime versus Wawrinka and 26-0 in total sets. Nadal may have lost the opening set fair and square was “outplayed” by Wawrinka according to Sports Illustrated, but both head-to-head history and Wawrinka’s performance in sets two through four suggest it would have been one-way traffic for Nadal the rest of the way had he been anywhere close to 100 percent. In New York, Nadal did not even play because of a wrist problem and a recently-married Djokovic had been slumping the entire hard-court summer.

Yes, the Big 4 had its fair share of problems in 2014. But what’s to say that same story won’t continue in 2015, thus once again opening the door for guys like Wawrinka and Cilic? At this point, Nadal being hurt for at least one Grand Slam per year has to be accepted as a given. He has missed two of the last three U.S. Opens, three of the last nine Grand Slams, and has been less than 100 percent for countless others since 2009. Similarly, Murray’s physical issues are also unlikely to ever go away entirely. As for Federer, he is 33 years old and has not won a major since Wimbledon in 2012.

But if the outside contenders continue to win more and more slams, it won’t be merely as a result of the Big 4’s struggles. The bottom line is that the rest of the tour is getting better and better in its own right–and doing whatever it takes to get better and better. Wawrinka (Magnus Norman), Cilic (Goran Ivanisevic), Nishikori (Michael Chang), Milos Raonic (Ivan Ljubicic) and Grigor Dimitrov (Roger Rasheed) to name just some have committed to working hard and surrounding themselves with respected coaches. Both Raonic and Dimitrov reached the semis of Wimbledon before being overshadowed by Cilic and Nishikori in New York. While there are those who will discount aforementioned results as one-off performances, it’s not like they came entirely out of nowhere. Raonic previously finished runner-up at the 2013 Rogers Cup and made it to the French Open quarters. Cilic’s record this season was 41-16 even before the U.S. Open. Nishikori is 40-10 this season and he was destroying Nadal on Nadal’s own surface (clay) in the Madrid final before getting injured.

It’s clear the Wawrinkas and Cilics of the world will have their chances again in 2015. But they will need help, which is exactly what they got this year. If Nadal keeps getting hurt, if Djokovic’s inconsistency continues, if rumors of Federer’s decline are not great exaggerated, and if Murray can’t become the Murray of 2012 and ’13, the door will remain open.

But those are big “ifs.”

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73 Comments on Will the Big 4 restore slam order in 2015?

  1. I’m anticipating that Rafa will make 10 at Roland Garros, that Djokovic will win at least one of Australia and the US, but that Wimbledon will be far more open and someone like Raonic or Dimitrov, if they manage to pull themselves together and develop the mental aspects of their game further, have a real chance to win or at least make a final – also thinking that the Masters tournaments might be a bit more open.

    Reply

  2. I don’t think that either Cilic or Nishikori will win another Slam, or even be in a GS Final. There’s just too many other great players out there and the Big 4 are still dangerous. Dimitrov might be the next 1st time Slam winner.

    Reply

  3. The dark clouds are gathering for the Big 4. Age and injuries are taking their toll.
    Their stranglehold has been challenged twice this year and the odds of 2 out of the 4 being in peak form to get to the finals of all four Slams in 2015 are at best 50/50.

    I agree with Scootd the depth of the next generation field makes it difficult to predict who will emerge as a multiple Slam winner(s) and who will prove to be a ‘flash in the pan’.

    #TheWindOfChangeBlows

    Reply

  4. Amongst the current crop of pretenders, none has impressed me enough to consider them multiple Slam contenders. I see the same Jack-In-A-Box performances in the coming 2 years at least I.e. “Magical” runs a la Wawa and Cilic once in a while with the spot line firmly on the Big 4.

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  6. —Nishikori is 40-10 this season and he was destroying Nadal on Nadal’s own surface (clay) in the Madrid final before getting injured—

    As certain as death and taxes,’destroying’ Rafa has to be always mentioned by writers/commentators, and no word about destroying Fed and even about Djoko!

    Reply

  7. Tennis writers and commentators are giving their opinion. They are under no obligation to maintain ‘balance’ – unlike news and current affairs journalists who are expected to present both sides of an issue. Not that they always do.

    Reply

  9. I think Ricky does a great job. The above is perfectly even-handed. Madrid was getting away from Rafa (although we’ll never know if he would’ve clawed back a win had Kei not been crippled).

    Reply

  10. Those may be big if’s but there is a big if for each of the four amigos. I expect that at each of the slams in 2015 easily one or two of the if’s will take place. I’m sorry to say that because I am afraid, for one, that there will be again some injury time-out for Rafa although I hope that somehow there won’t be for the entire calendar year. Therefore we can expect that there will be one non-four slam winner next year, and maybe two again.

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  11. I think at this point we have to face the fact that Rafa could well have another injury next year. He hasn’t played a full year of tennis since 2011. He’s not getting any younger. Of course, I want him to be healthy as much as possible but it’s not realistic. I would love to see him win #10 at RG next year. That would be something else.

    Novak hasn’t been plagued by injuries like Rafa. He’s not going anywhere. Murray has shown signs of getting back to the player he used to be. But the back might be a question mark. He still can’t be counted out yet. Fed has had a good year for him, especially compared to last year. I do not see him winning another slam. That doesn’t mean it absolutely cannot happen, but the stars would have to align in such a way that would make it happen. It seemed that this happened at the USO when Kei took out Novak. But Fed couldn’t handle Cilic. That’s how I think it’s going to be with him.

    I can see at least one slam going to a non-four slam winner,

    Reply

  12. Fed was eight points from winning Wimbledon just a few weeks ago. Don’t kid yourself, there wasn’t much to differentiate between Nole and Fed in that final.

    Murray is out of the Top 10. In each of the last three years, Djokovic’s been a single slam winner and Rafa has been absent at a major (and often not 100% at others).

    Along with this, rigged draws and scheduling, Federer can certainly take advantage under the right conditions.

    He might even finish the year at No. 1.

    #CaroWannaBe
    #WeakEraRelapse
    #CatsAway

    Reply

      • “a few weeks ago” um, what? (#MetricSystem)

        “he might finish the year No. 1″ um, what? (#CheckRTL&GetBackToMe)

        everything else in between is more along the lines of sanity (#Concerned)

        Reply

      • That’s how I see it. Wimbledon was a few months ago. Fed got to the final, but didn’t get the win. There’s no prize for second place. He had a golden opportunity with Novak out at the USO. But he couldn’t get past Cilic. I think if it’s not one of the other top players, then it’s going to be some other young gun who will knock Fed out.

        Fed had the right conditions at the USO. It couldn’t have been more right. No Rafa. Murray below par. Novak knocked out by Kei. Come on! If that isn’t the stars aligning, then I don’t know what is. Fed still didn’t get to the final.

        Fed isn’t going to be #1 at year end.

        Reply

        • yep, that was his last golden chance to win another hard-court slam

          he can still be a contender at Wimbledon, but probably not at any other slam in which Rafa participates

          Reply

  13. “If Nadal keeps getting hurt, if Djokovic’s inconsistency continues, if rumors of Federer’s decline are not great exaggerated, and if Murray can’t become the Murray of 2012 and ’13, the door will remain open.
    But those are big “ifs.””

    Murray’s won a grand total of two slams. Your other three if’s have all occurred in each of the last three years so, no, those “if’s” don’t seem to be that big at all.

    But maybe you are just doing the Djokings.

    For sure one non-big 4 major winner and possibly two is the call.

    Reply

    • true… when I wrote that there is a big if for each of the four amis, and at each slam, what I was actually thinking was big question marks as to whether that player could reach the final and win it. But taking big if as it should be read, you are right: they are not big if’s, they are pretty likely to happen.

      Reply

  16. I do find it interesting that the new winners came on hard courts (often seen as the more neutral surface, thus always benefiting the better player — which has almost always been someone in the Big 4) and the Big 4 wins came on the more specialized surfaces. As for next year…

    I can see Djokovic or Nadal winning the AO, and I think it’s Fed’s 2nd best shot at a major after Wimbledon next year. Sadly, I don’t know what to make of Murray. I think he may even big a bigger surprise than some other players to win, as odd as that seems. I hope he can turn it around.

    I have an incredibly hard time seeing past anyone other than Nadal or Djokovic winning the French. The surface is just too demanding for Federer at this point (not to include his issues with Nadal), and best out of five on clay seems like a monumental task still against those two, even with the upsets we’ve had this year.

    I think Wimbledon is the most wide open, though I thought the same this year, and it still ended up being a Big 4 final. Easily Federer’s best chance at a major, but with his dip in form this past year, perhaps Murray’s as well. Djokovic, as he always is, will be a threat, and I still have a hard time imagining Nadal not making one more big run at Wimbledon before it’s all said and done. I’d love to see all 4 make the semis at the same major again, and Wimbledon would be a cool one to see it happen. Andy’s seeding, though….

    I think the U.S. Open is the hardest to predict, if only because it’s so far away. We’ve had a different winner every year except last, where Nadal was the only person to be a repeat winner since 2008. 7 years, 6 winners. Hard to argue against that. As big of a Federer fan as I am, I think this past U.S. Open was probably his last real shot at that slam. The door was wide open, and he couldn’t take advantage of it — even if Cilic played supremely well. Still easily can see Djokovic or Nadal winning here again, but I think it may be even more of a surprise tournament than Wimbledon — just like this year. Interesting times to be a tennis fan.

    Reply

  17. Ha,ha. As we anticipated, the Federazzi© have elevated leading Swizterland to a Davis Cup win as the pinnacle of Federer’s achievements in tennis.

    from Steve Fink
    ––When Federer heads to France with his compatriots for the Davis Cup Final late in November, it will be among the primary quests of his entire professional life––

    he goes on to add
    ––In the final analysis, Federer should join other all-time greats like Rod Laver, Pete Sampras, Nadal, Djokovic and Bjorn Borg who all have celebrated the singular experience of leading their country to victory in the Davis Cup. Federer very much belongs in that elite company, and the reward would be entirely fitting. He could wear that achievement proudly on his lapel, knowing he had totally earned it ––

    Reply

  19. Things are just too unpredictable right now, which I think is great.
    Whatever happens, I’d love to see Dimitrov figure out the rest of the puzzle and win a slam in 2015, and after him I’d love to see Stan Wawrinka win another.

    Reply

  20. It’s seven years since Gulbis first appeared on the radar so he can hardly be described as a young pretender. But IF he were to harness that formidable talent and IF he were to apply himself to winning consistently for two whole weeks he might well make it to a Slam final in the near future (with some help of course from the other YPs). And IF he kept his head could well be a Slam winner.

    #LotsOfVariables
    #StrangerThingsHaveHappened

    Reply

  21. With 20/20 hindsight this thread makes interesting reading. It’ll be intriguing to revisit at the end of 2015.

    With the French team in disarray It’s looking more and more likely Federer will finally realise his ambition to lead Switzerland to a Davis Cup win.

    Reply

  22. I predict: (i’m gonna be wrong, probably)

    Tennis Grand slam predictions 2015:
    AO: Djokovic RUP=Federer
    FO: Nadal RUP=Djokovic
    W: Djokovic RUP=Federer
    UO: W=Raonic RUP=Nishikori

    Reply

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