Novak Djokovic was joined in French Open quarterfinal action on Tuesday by a trio of players who have never been short on talent but also a trio that is still knocking on the door of the sport’s elite without quite breaking through.
Of the three, only Ernests Gulbis is still alive at Roland Garros heading into semifinal Friday. The resurgent Latvian destroyed Tomas Berdych, who is no stranger to the latter stages of Grand Slams but was simply outclassed this time around. And then there was Milos Raonic, whose huge serve could not solve the defense and all-court game of Djokovic.
With Berdych, Raonic, and Gulbis all in the recent headlines, now is a good time to take a look at their careers up to this point and take a stab at what the future may hold.
Tomas Berdych
Positives
He has already been to a Grand Slam final, having taken down Roger Federer and Djokovic in succession at Wimbledon in 2010 before succumbing to Rafael Nadal. The Czech also reached the French Open semifinals that same season, coming within one set of the title match only to bow out to Robin Soderling. A player who can succeed on all surfaces, Berdych has reached at least the semis of all four majors. He also has a Masters 1000 title to his credit (Paris in 2005).
Negatives
Since that torrid stretch in June and July of 2010, Berdych has advanced to just two Grand Slam semis and never been back to a final. Bouts of inconsistency include four first-round major losses since that run (including to Gulbis at Wimbledon in 2012). The world No. 6’s propensity for dips in form are due to a style of play that features a low margin of error and because of one-dimensionality. Berdych rarely has a “Plan B.” Gulbis steamrolled him at his own game on Tuesday and Berdych did not–or could not–do anything about it. He’s also 28 years old; three years older than Gulbis and five years older than Raonic.
Milos Raonic
Positives
Despite his relative youth, Raonic has become a recent mainstay of the Top 10 and a serious contender for a berth in the World Tour Finals. He already has a Masters 1000 runner-up finish (last summer in Montreal to Nadal). The 6’5” Canadian wields arguably one of the two biggest serves on tour (Ivo Karlovic) and arguably one of the three most effective serves in the sport (Karlovic and John Isner). His quarterfinal performance this fortnight came on what should be his worst surface on clay. Raonic should not yet be in the prime of his career, so plenty of improvement can be expected.
Negatives
Like Berdych, Raonic’s game can be considered one-dimensional. When his serve is not there, neither is Raonic. It’s not like he can rely on movement, consistent groundstrokes, or unabashed net-charging to bail him out of poorly-served matches. Prior to this French Open, the world No. 9’s Grand Slam record was borderline abysmal. He had never made it past a fourth round and his overall record at the four biggest tournaments is still a modest 27-14. He is a dreadful 3-3 at Wimbledon and a mediocre 6-3 at the U.S. Open, which should probably be his two best majors.
Ernests Gulbis
Negatives
We have to start with the negatives with this guy, because it is impossible to discuss the positives without context. Unlike the case with Berdych and Raonic, Gulbis’ Top 10 appearance next week will be the first of his career. In fact, his current mark of No. 17 in the world is his best-ever even though he is already in the prime of his career at 25 years old. For the most part, since he made mincemeat out of Tommy Robredo at the 2007 U.S. Open and reached the French Open quarters in 2008, Gulbis has been nothing but a great waste of talent. Prior to this fortnight, Gulbis–relative to his talent and results at smaller events–was without question the worst slam player on tour. Aside from the 2008 and 2014 French Opens, he has been past the second round of a major only twice.
Positives
The question now is: is it too little, too late? Well, maybe not. Basically everything about this season has been encouraging. Gulbis is the unofficial tour leader in deceased rackets even in the midst of his best year as a professional, but those outbursts seem to be calculated shows that he both enjoys and thrives on. The Latvian is one of the streakiest players in the business, which is bad news when he is off but great news when he is on. When he’s cold, he’s more frozen than the 2013 animated hit movie; when he’s hot, he’s almost unplayable (see: third set vs. Federer, all three sets vs. Berdych). Gulbis’ six-for-six mark in ATP titles won’t help his legacy much due to their 250-point status, but it does suggest that he is becoming–as this French Open also indicates–a big-match player.
[polldaddy poll=8101624]
[polldaddy poll=8101623]
[polldaddy poll=8101620]
I’m shocked Berdych isn’t getting more love in the polls. Yes, he is already 28, but he has been a mainstay in the top 10. Raonic and Gulbis both lack the consistency that Berdych has. The good news for Gulbis is that the normal peak age in tennis gets a little later every year for the past few years. So he really is still a few years away from peaking. Top 10 mainstay? Doubtful. Grand slam champion? Only one of the three that has a chance.
Gulbiz is far more entertaining to watch than other two.
He will be a star soon…
Raonic has the best serve, Berdych is the most consistent(at the present time) but Gulbis is the most versatile of the 3 IMO, and has the best chance of winning a slam in his career.
I agree with what you’re saying, apart from the idea that Gulbis has the best chance. He is versatile but one should also say, a bit of a head-case. Right now, he’s focused and looking to move higher up in the rankings, but I think that he lacks the professional outlook which a player needs to win a slam, in this day and age.
His performance this slam has been great but when you compare him to the Raonic, who has really started putting it together and has the professional outlook on tennis, it seems that Raonic will be the standout player of the three. That being said, I voted that both Gulbis and Raonic will win a slam!
Yes he’s a headcase, but you can’t deny that he’s IMPROVED in that category in the past 18 months. The fact that he’s the most versatile means he can get how out of nowhere and win a major.(similar to Marat safin) THat isn’t the case with berdych. If raonic improves his movement a little bit, I think he can win a slam too.
Sorry I meant “get hot out of nowhere…”
Raonic if continues to improve may be a big threat in the future…I expect him to have the best career out of these three…
Gulbis OTOH is my favorite (am I nuts? yup… 🙂 ) Yes, Ernest is a rich spoiled brat and I sometimes think he is not at all clear in his head (read: crazy?!!) but I love his tennis when he is all pumped up…this year he will reach his first final at the RG beating hot favorite Novak and he will then be in the limelight and go out of control…he will do well in Wimby (semis maybe?) and then suddenly disappear for the rest of the season to waste the money parting with girls that he considers lesser human beings… 😀
Berdy is a nice human being…I really like him…I wish he could win more tourneys but majors I just don’t see him wining unless all big 4 are on vacation…
Berdy’s career should not be compared to Gulbis and Raonic because the latter 2 have time on their hands whilst Berdy is closing in on 30. Gulbis is the best player of the three, because Gulbis has a great serve and the best all round game.
I think I’ll stop here.
The thing about Ern is he doesn’t care. He doesn’t respect the top players. That means he’s not intimidated. He knows in his egotistical mind that he’s as good as or better than them. Guys like Berd or Milos don’t believe they are. They show too much respect to the top players. Seriously if it was 20 years ago Milos could win Wimbledon with only his serve. You cannot win a major with just a serve these days. Ern can get hot and win a major. The other two cannot.
If you took Gulbis’ physical talents and combined it with Raonic’s maturity, you’d have a much better version of Berdych.
If the question was who has had the best career to date, then obviously Berdych but Berdy turns 29 this September. If he hasn’t won a major by now, most likely he never will.Goran won Wimby, his only major at 29 but this is pretty rare. Berdy’s career high is 5.
Prior to Earnie’s French Open run, I don’t think he’d be so highly touted here and one run in a major is, for me, too little to go on given his flaky past and historical ebbs and flows. Earnie will return to normal against Novak. As I said with Milos, Earnie may get a set if he’s on his game and Nole’s level drops a bit. In all seriousness, as much as he is great for the game, I don’t see him winning multiple majors, maybe one.
Raonic is still just 23. Only four players younger than Milos in the Top 100. He’s still 2-3 years away from peaking. Similar to Nole before 2011, I was almost ready to give up on him prior to Ljubicic coming on board but I’ve truly been amazed at how Milos’ ground game has improved over the last 12 months. His BH was non-existent and has shown dramatic improvements. His mental game has also shown marked improvement but needs to further improve.
All three of these guys are now in the Top 10 but Milos has a huge time advantage. He has the maturity and shows no signs of levelling off yet,
For me, Milos will end up with at least one major and will reach the Top 5.
I think I’ll stop here. 🙂
Well said!
That was my post BTW. Don’t know WHY it is showing up as Anonymous. Logging on has become a bit of a trial and error. I get a warning that the site may not be trustworthy when attempting to log on this week.
hawkeye63 (1:32 pm),
I have suggested to Log In here: http://en.support.wordpress.com/
Have you tried?
No but I wlll in future. Thanks augusta!
If you took Gulbis’ physical talents and combined it with Raonic’s maturity, you’d have a much better version of Berdych.
If the question was who has had the best career to date, then obviously Berdych but Berdy turns 29 this September. If he hasn’t won a major by now, most likely he never will.Goran won Wimby, his only major at 29 but this is pretty rare. Berdy’s career high is 5.
Prior to Earnie’s French Open run, I don’t think he’d be so highly touted here and one run in a major is, for me, too little to go on given his flaky past and historical ebbs and flows. Earnie will return to normal against Novak. As I said with Milos, Earnie may get a set if he’s on his game and Nole’s level drops a bit. In all seriousness, as much as he is great for the game, I don’t see him winning multiple majors, maybe one.
Raonic is still just 23. Only four players younger than Milos in the Top 100. He’s still 2-3 years away from peaking. Similar to Nole before 2011, I was almost ready to give up on him prior to Ljubicic coming on board but I’ve truly been amazed at how Milos’ ground game has improved over the last 12 months. His BH was non-existent and has shown dramatic improvements. His mental game has also shown marked improvement but needs to further improve.
All three of these guys are now in the Top 10 but Milos has a huge time advantage. He has the maturity and shows no signs of levelling off yet,
For me, Milos will end up with at least one major and will reach the Top 5.
I think I’ll stop here. 🙂
Ah, double post. Just realized.
I don’t want to annoy hawkeye, but I think the thing that gives Raonic his big serve is the same thing that inhibits his movement. He finds it hard to move around because of his build and his legs look too heavy. I thought he had improved his movement lately, but he can do it over a best of 3 but against good players, doing it over 5 sets is too much to ask of him, especially as it doesn’t come naturally.
So he may be able to make a few rounds in slams constantly, but at the business end where he has to beat the best, he will fall short.
Don’t worry nadline. Seriously, you are not annoying me at all. Valid concerns.
(Calling ANY tennis player a “waste of space” however especially a Top 10 player at 23 years of age is a different matter IMO.)
I like how his game is continuing to improve. I don’t see the competition being as stiff as it is today 2-3 years from now based on the lack of youth in the Top 100.
Nobody (including me) is calling him a future Sampras but 2-4 majors is a reasonable career goal which I don’t see happening for the other two players.
#ToEachTheirOwn
#AgreeToDisagree
Gulbis is easily the most talented amongst the three. He is slowly but surely maturing now and getting serious about his tennis. watch out ! he can be a complete package.
Raonic has really improved. We know he needs to improve his movement but I also think he needs to improve his tactical acumen…
I think Raonic has better chance of winning a major, given his age. He is likely to peak after two-three years when Djokovic, Murray and Nadal would not be as strong as they are now.
good point
Gulbis is without doubt the one with the most natural born talent. It’s hard to know how much of his posturing and preposterous behaviour is plain wilful mischief making or whether he has s a compulsive desire to sabotage his career. We have now seen what he can do when he knuckles down to it but it remains to be seen whether he can sustain that over a long period. On balance, now he knows what he can achieve, I think he will be motivated to continue as a serious player and if he does then it is more than possible in a few years from now he will achieve the goals he has set for himself.
I am lukewarm regarding Raonic’s chances of being more than a solid presence in the top 10. I don’t see him winning a Major except by fluke à la Wawrinka.
As far as Berdych is concerned. It is simple. If he was going to a win Slam then he would have done it by now. i.e. in 2004/5