What will Thiem bring to the table at the Nitto ATP Finals?

Dominic Thiem has made three previous trips to the Nitto ATP Finals and is still searching for his first semifinal qualification. For a couple of reasons, that’s not exactly surprising. First, indoor hard courts are not an ideal surface for him; second, London comes at the end of a long season and scheduling has never been Thiem’s forte.

In each of his three appearances, the Austrian compiled a 1-2 record in round-robin group play. In his 2016 debut he played was virtually a quarterfinal against Milos Raonic, with the winner guaranteed to qualify for semifinal Saturday. Raonic, a considerable favorite at the time, prevailed 7-6(5), 6-3. Thiem scored a victory over alternate Pablo Carreno Busta in 2017 only to get blown out in his group finale by David Goffin. The current world No. 5 dropped his first two matches last year before beating Kei Nishikori, a result that was nowhere near enough for a semifinal spot.

“It’s always a big honor and it’s a big personal goal at the beginning of every season to qualify for the ATP World Tour Finals,” Thiem assured. “In the last three years, I’ve always managed to win one match, which was great, but I want more this year and would love to qualify for the semifinals.”

Will the fourth time be the charm? It’s not out of the question.

Thiem has markedly improved on hard courts in 2019, capturing a shock Indian Wells Masters title with a final upset of Roger Federer. Amazingly enough, that means the 26-year-old’s lone Masters 1000 triumph has come on hard courts–not on his preferred clay-court stomping grounds. Additionally, Thiem just added a 500-point title on the indoor hard courts of Vienna.

A 6-3, 6-2 loss to Grigor Dimitrov in round two of the Paris Masters was disappointing, but it was hardly surprising just three days after his emotional Vienna victory and one day after a hard-fought 7-6(5), 5-7, 6-4 defeat of Raonic. The relatively early exit from Paris may be a blessing in disguise, too, as it means more rest in advance of the year-end championship.

Rest has not always been a staple of Thiem’s seasons. He is not quite on Benoit Paire’s level, but this is guy who jumps–or at least used to jump–at every opportunity to participate in a tennis tournament. The J. Safra Sarasin Swiss Open Gstaad? Sounds good! The Open de Nice Cote d’Azur? Yes sir! The Turkish Airlines Open Antalya? Sign me up!

Mercifully, Thiem scaled it back in 2019. He played only three 250-point tournaments: one in Kitzbuhel (understandable since it’s in Austria, and he won it), Buenos Aires (on clay, and two Golden Swing events–also the 500-pointer in Rio de Janeiro–are not too many), and Doha (sensible Australian Open preparation).

He has played 63 matches this season, a modest number not because he is losing more often but because is scheduling smarter (and in part due to a summer illness). He played 74 matches in 2018, 77 in 2017, and 82 in 2016.

The bottom line is that Thiem is both in form and well rested. Now the question is if that makes him good enough to compete with the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer. For the most part no one other than Daniil Medvedev has managed to do it on a big stage in 2019, as Djokovic and Nadal swept the four Grand Slams and are completely dominating atop the rankings.

“The Big 3 still took the Grand Slams this year, but I think next year will be the year where there’s a big change,” Thiem predicted. “I hope that one or two Grand Slams will be won by the younger players.”

Right now, though, we’re worried only about London–a tournament that has been won twice in a row by non-Big 3 players (Grigor Dimitrov in 2017 and Alexander Zverev in ’18). Throw Andy Murray into the mix (he was part of the Big 4 when he won it in 2016) and that’s three straight years without Djokovic, Nadal, or Federer lifting the trophy.

Nadal has never won it, and Thiem would likely not mind a matchup with the Spaniard at the O2 Arena. He can get away with playing two meters behind the baseline like a Spanish player, because Nadal does the same thing. He can’t do it against opponents like Djokovic, Federer, and perhaps fellow London participant Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Thiem’s positioning against Dimitrov in Paris, for example, wasn’t great but it also wasn’t terrible.

Dimitrov actually spent more time (33 percent) far behind the baseline than Thiem. But the Bulgarian also found himself inside the baseline far more often (41 percent) than his opponent

If Thiem is willing to step into the court with greater frequency (and that’s a BIG “if” even though coach Nicolas Massu surely recognizes the necessity of it), he can do some damage inside the O2 Arena. Channel his inner Dimitrov and Zverev to win the the title? No. But a semifinal spot? Why not!?!? The form, the rest, and the relative hard-court confidence are there; now it’s simply up to him to play the right way.

Oh, and avoiding a round-robin group with both Djokovic and Federer would help!