Rafael Nadal will take on the 2014 U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic for a spot in the quarterfinals. The Spaniard, a fixture in the business end of this event, last won the title in New York in 2017. Alexander Zverev is also in action against Diego Schwartzman.
(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (22) Marin Cilic
The bottom half of the draw has a bit of the wild west about it, with seeds dropping early and often. Yet Nadal remains firmly in place, inching his way ever-closer to the final weekend of play. He has reached the quarterfinals or better at every major since he won the 2017 U.S. Open, and he’s reached at least the semis since he captured the 2018 French Open title.
Nadal has only played two matches this fortnight, thanks to a second-round walkover. He was ruthlessly efficient in his first round match against John Millman, but his first serve was a bit inconsistent against Hyeon Chung in the third round, though he won both in straight sets.
Cilic has had some patchy results this year. Coming into New York, he was 15-13 on the season with no titles to his name. His play seems to have improved in the first week at Flushing Meadows, with a fine win over American John Isner in the third round. Cilic notched a win over Nadal at the Australian Open in 2018, but the Spaniard was forced to retire at 0-2 in the fifth set with a right leg injury.
Nadal is the heavy favorite to advance to the quarterfinals, but if he has another low first serve percentage day, as he did against Chung, he’s going to make things difficult for himself.
Cheryl pick: Nadal in 3
Ricky pick: Nadal in 3
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(6) Alexander Zverev vs. (20) Diego Schwartzman
That Sascha Zverev is in the second week of the U.S. Open is already an accomplishment. The German has never been past the third round in New York. As usual, he hasn’t had an easy time of it in the early rounds. He had a couple of 5-set matches in the first two rounds and a highly competitive four-set match in the third round against Aljaz Bedene.
By contrast, Diego Schwartzman picked up three straightforward wins to earn his spot in the round of 16. The Argentine, who won the event in Los Cabos, has played better hard court-tennis than Zverev this summer. He and Zverev have met twice and split the wins, but Schwartzman’s win came all the way back in 2014, while Zverev’s came at the Paris Masters last year.
Despite the ranking difference, it would seem that Schwartzman will actually have a slight edge on Monday. Zverev has not been able to maintain his intensity in his first three matches. Both his serve and his focus seemed to drift in and out. Schwartzman, who is in good form right now, is going to be much more likely to be able to take advantage.
Cheryl pick: Schwartzman in 5
Ricky pick: Schwartzman in 4
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I guess my comments get too long it requires and approval. So will split into two.
– I see a lot of Rafans are at their worst nervous selves when watching Rafas matches. Me and Sanju dont watch at all. A 6-1 6-2 in the 3rd and fourth should actually be a comfortable confident scoreline.
– The problem with Rafa is that he almost never gets a free point on serve. While he tries to serve wide on Deuce and T on Ad first serves, he never does it often enough to walk through his service games. He rarely gives us non rally points ( even if some are short). With the rallies we almost never know if he is going to absolutely win the point.When it comes to retrievers like Djok or possibly Swartzman its going to be even more nerve wracking
– His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130+ even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.
I agree. I wrote a long comment in line with Lucky and Sanju but guess it needs approval. Tried splitting into two and still didnt work.
Cheryl / Ricky. Please approve my comment and cancel the repeat on the second. Will wait for it.
Creature of habit but if he needs to cross 20,the habit needs to change. Time is running out for 20
Guys what do you make of A. Zverev?
I know he’s still quite young, but do you think he’ll ever win a major? a couple years a go some were saying he’d be the next big thing in men’s tennis.
I think he will, it’s a matter of time I feel. I initially thought that he will be a multiple slam winner, something like a Becker or John MAC, given that he’ll outlast the golden era of tennis.
Now, I feel he’s too one dimensional and there’re so many up and comers that I feel he won’t be able to win that many slams, maybe one or two?
He has a big serve and big ground strokes, so no reason he can’t win a slam or two if he puts in the efforts.
Personally I think he’s too defensive and just doesn’t impose himself enough to challenge. He’s a good mover considering his size, but he still needs to be closer up to the baseline line & hitting a harder FH.
He’ll probably win a slam at some point, but right now he’s obviously still some way off. I think it’ll take some time for him to adjust his game to the level of making slam semi’s/finals.
Worried about Diego,he always gives Rafa fits. He once made Rafa play 4 hrs at AO with him..then Rafa had to retire next match midway with Cilic due to knees .
He is saying he is confident he can beat Rafa
https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Rafael_Nadal/76447/diego-schwartzman-shares-plan-to-beat-rafael-nadal/
The shackles were broken in set 3 yesterday. Rafa will be ruthless now. The guy was averaging 103 mph on second serves at one point and even clocked a 109 mph second serve. Remember the Mayer match in 2017 USO? I got the same feeling. He finished on a high note and it will take a huge effort to take this Rafa down. Only a red hot Fed having an incredible serving day can perhaps CAN do it.
Sanju…I have no doubt that Schwartzy feels very confident & very determined going into this match…but….feels confident & execute it r 2 different things…esp.when at the other net is Rafa…A healthy Rafa i mean…
But i also fully expect Rafa will take us ride his usual crazy walkabout rollercoaster for a while b4 serving us a chocolate ice cream at the end of it…Ughh…heaven!(At least b4 meeting with Roger!hehe)
Your take on roger ? God knows why Rafa invites ppl like Diego to his academy who want to beat him so bad
Good heavens, if Rafa shunned everyone who wants to beat him he’d be very lonely. Rafa loves competition and values it in others. He was having a great time playing Cilic last night – it was the sort of night he lives for.
If someone can take Fed out, Rafa #19 will be a done deal.
Who will ? I don’t see anyone taking him out
Stan, provided he doesn’t play a long match vs Medvedev, unlike at FO when he had a long match with Tsitsipas before facing off against Fed.
I think Medvedev has a better chance . Stan plays too far behind the baseline, Fed definitely a bad matchup for him , too match. fed has been brilliant all thru the year and it would need a special performance to beat Fed.
Medvedev, if he is fully fit is the only one. Stan shows up for Djoker clashes, but somehow is never able to beat Fed.
That is the conundrums of conundrums, isn’t it! Lol!!
Imagine he has never beaten Roger, i don’t think!
he does show up but it is a very different match up. I have clear reasons in my head as to why he is not able to perform at the same level against Fed and Rafa
He did, at FO2015 on his way to his FO title. He pushed Fed hard during this year’s FO, and imo, if not for his long match in the previous round, perhaps he could’ve beaten Fed.
When it comes to slams, Stan is a different animal ever since he won the AO2014 title. He now believes that when he’s playing top level tennis, he’s able to big the Big three. He has already beaten all three of them at the slams.
Regarding Zverev, I think he can go quite far but unless he improves certain areas, his problems will just linger on. I was trying to see where he has room to improve and what keeps him apart from the top pack.
Thing is, you’d think with his height and big serve, Zverev would be winning a very high % of services games. In fact, he has won 79.4% service games this year compared to 88-89% range for the big 3. Issue is Zverev’s second serve where he is unable to win more than 45% points. That is too low and shows that his second serve is not very high quality and his baseline game not steady enough. Even NK wins 51% of second serve points!
On teh return side, he has won 26% service games and I think that’s decent. Don’t expect him to hit 30+ because that is reserved for a small class of players. Even Fed sits at 24.5% so I guess he doing a decent job there.
The biggest area of improvement, game wise, is winning more points behind his second serve which can only come via improved serving and better baseline game. I agree he needs to be more aggressive with his forehand.
P.s, the return games won leaders this year are
1. Rafa 35.9%
2. Novak 31.8%
3.Schwatrzman 30.3%
Vamorafa, Y don’t you publish a tennis channel on Youtube? You are quite the analyst!😊👍
lol, only if you assure me of being the first subscriber? haha!
thanks for the kind comment, though, Monalisa 🙂
Oh, certainly VR, without a doubt!!!!😊
VR, I think what you mentioned only happened this year. He was ok during 2017/2018, if not he won’t go as high as world no.3. He won’t be able to beat Fed and Djoko B2B to win the WTF title if he’s so bad.
He said he had some personal problems (with his agent I believe), hence he wasn’t able to concentrate on his tennis this year. He’ll pick up from where he left off I feel, once he and his team could work things out for him.
Thanks for the detailed analysis! Very insightful. Can you explain also why Zverev has so many problems specifically with the slams. He only reached the quarterfinals of a slam twice and regularly has troubles to even reach the second week. One glaring problem is that he is prone to spend far too much time and energy on-court in the early rounds against inferior players and then runs out of steam in the following matches. I also think that his ability to solve problems and change tactics if necessary is underdeveloped. He has no Plan B. This is one of Rafa’s strongest points btw. He’s one of the best problem solver. Medvedev also did change his game tactics against Novak in the Cincy semis. He gambled on his second serve, and it succeeded.
I also think that Zverev needs a different coach. I don’t think he can be able to compete for the big titles when he keeps his father as his coach. He did win the WTF with Lendl as his coach, and everybody thought that this partnership was going to work out. But the opposite happened and things unravelled very fast during the following season. Becker who has a good line of communication with the Zverev family, thinks that something happened after the WTF which caused a rift.
Vamosrafa..your thoughts on Diego n Gael/ berretini n fed Vs Rafa ? I know one match at a time..ok atleast tell about diego
It will be a good rhythm mach for Rafa in my view. Rafa’s forehand will be pushed a lot and that’ll prepare him for the next rounds. The rallies can of course be quite long and draining but Rafa’s got plenty of gas in the task. Like I said, Cilic awakened the beast yesterday just like Mayer did in USO 2017. The Rafa express will be very hard to stop now.
Diogo’s an incredible returning to Rafa needs to improve that first serve % and keep serving big second serves. Diogo doesn’t have a big serve so that is good 🙂
Rafa will win in 3 sets in my view. Could be 4 but not more than that!
My comments from yesterday never made it here. So will try to split in parts.
I see a lot of Rafans are at their worst nervous selves when watching Rafas matches. Me and Sanju dont watch at all. A 6-1 6-2 in the 3rd and fourth should actually be a comfortable confident scoreline.
The problem with Rafa is that he almost never gets a free point on serve. While he tries to serve wide on Deuce and T on Ad first serves, he never does it often enough to walk through his service games. He rarely gives us non rally points ( even if some are short). With the rallies we almost never know if he is going to absolutely win the point.When it comes to retrievers like Djok or possibly Swartzman its going to be even more nerve wracking
I stopped watching totally PK after AO 17 loss in final. That crushed me as I never expected it and he lost the double career slam too.
His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130+ even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.
ok I give up. even splitting doesnt work.
I was saying how Nadal with his current strategy would have a zero chance against Fed. But its sad to see Fed is out now. Those two deserved atleast one match up here and a final would have been nice. But now Its Nadals best chance to go through all the way even if Medvedev is a bit scary at the moment.
PK, it happened to me, too, that I wrote long comments here, which vanished into cyberspace 🙁
I was pretty nervous, too, when I thought about the prospect that Rafa might have to play Fed in the final – although I would’ve given Rafa a better chance to come out of his Fed-funk of recent years here in NY where the hard courts play slower than at the AO and are different than at Wimby. And while his first serve percentage could be better, he is in splendid form right now and definitely not tired. However, I was hopeful that Fed might not even make it into the final. I really think that age catches up with him at last. I was not looking at Dimi, though, as a potential Fed-slayer, but at the young gun Medvedev, who seems to be completely fearless right now. Even the hostile NY crowd can’t hurt him and seems to fir
But Rafa still needs to win two more matches in order to even reach the final! While I really don’t think that the remaining players in his half are a serious threat (and except for Berettini he knows them), it’s always possible that he has a bad day or gets hurt. Look at Fed! Who would’ve thought that he would be taken out by Dimi of all players! However, if Rafa stays healthy I am optomistic right now. He knows that he has a a golden opportunity to win another non-clay slam. And normally Rafa can handle this kind of challence.
Medvedev I think is too injured and will retire in his next game or the final if he makes it. Rafa on paper should be favourite with Dimitrov, but again we have got to deal with two more matches from Rafa. Hopefully they are quick and straightforward. Rafas best chance for another US Open and I am 99% positive he will make it this time. But Hey its Rafa. will likely make it harder for himself and us 🙂
Zero chance is harsh PK. It was 50 50 ..Rafa was playing better than fed this tourney
Sanju – I qualified it with saying “with his current strategy”.
LittleFoot – Inshort I was just saying, Rafas deep positioning on returns and extended rallies and his stubborness on only trying to change too late in the game will work with others but not Fed. Yes Fed is now out but I still maintain his strategy is only making it harder for his wins while the adjustments would make him a sure win. He has the game to not make us nervous and has straightforward wins. He just wont do it!
His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130+ even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.
Part 2 – His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130+ even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.
Cheryl – Would you be able to approve my comment and delete the repeats ?
His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130 plus even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.