Rafael Nadal will take on the 2014 U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic for a spot in the quarterfinals. The Spaniard, a fixture in the business end of this event, last won the title in New York in 2017. Alexander Zverev is also in action against Diego Schwartzman.
(2) Rafael Nadal vs. (22) Marin Cilic
The bottom half of the draw has a bit of the wild west about it, with seeds dropping early and often. Yet Nadal remains firmly in place, inching his way ever-closer to the final weekend of play. He has reached the quarterfinals or better at every major since he won the 2017 U.S. Open, and he’s reached at least the semis since he captured the 2018 French Open title.
Nadal has only played two matches this fortnight, thanks to a second-round walkover. He was ruthlessly efficient in his first round match against John Millman, but his first serve was a bit inconsistent against Hyeon Chung in the third round, though he won both in straight sets.
Cilic has had some patchy results this year. Coming into New York, he was 15-13 on the season with no titles to his name. His play seems to have improved in the first week at Flushing Meadows, with a fine win over American John Isner in the third round. Cilic notched a win over Nadal at the Australian Open in 2018, but the Spaniard was forced to retire at 0-2 in the fifth set with a right leg injury.
Nadal is the heavy favorite to advance to the quarterfinals, but if he has another low first serve percentage day, as he did against Chung, he’s going to make things difficult for himself.
Cheryl pick: Nadal in 3
Ricky pick: Nadal in 3
[polldaddy poll=10398626]
(6) Alexander Zverev vs. (20) Diego Schwartzman
That Sascha Zverev is in the second week of the U.S. Open is already an accomplishment. The German has never been past the third round in New York. As usual, he hasn’t had an easy time of it in the early rounds. He had a couple of 5-set matches in the first two rounds and a highly competitive four-set match in the third round against Aljaz Bedene.
By contrast, Diego Schwartzman picked up three straightforward wins to earn his spot in the round of 16. The Argentine, who won the event in Los Cabos, has played better hard court-tennis than Zverev this summer. He and Zverev have met twice and split the wins, but Schwartzman’s win came all the way back in 2014, while Zverev’s came at the Paris Masters last year.
Despite the ranking difference, it would seem that Schwartzman will actually have a slight edge on Monday. Zverev has not been able to maintain his intensity in his first three matches. Both his serve and his focus seemed to drift in and out. Schwartzman, who is in good form right now, is going to be much more likely to be able to take advantage.
Cheryl pick: Schwartzman in 5
Ricky pick: Schwartzman in 4
[polldaddy poll=10398623]
WWW?
Schwartzman in four and Rafa in four
Zverev-116
With Nole out, this slam almost belongs to Rafa, 51% chance for 19th slams by the weekend whoever is the other half.
Strongest opponent in final should be Fed, and next Wawa. If it is Medvedev, 99.9% chance. This is the first time I feel Fed could become a strong rival had they meet in final.
Cilic would be just a warming up match towards later stage.
If it’s fedal final..fed is the clear fav..he has beaten Rafa the last 5 times outside clay
So what being the favourite? Favourite doesn’t always win!
Just wait and see how things turn out, there are still matches to be played!
It’s true: Fed most certainly had Rafa’s number for a couple of years now on non-clay surfaces, and it’s therefore possible that Fed has made it into Rafa’s head. However, I like Rafa’s chances (in a so far totally hypothetical Fedal final) better than at the slick and fast courts of the AO, Wimby or indoor hardcourt, where the conditions Haven been clearly favoring Roger. But there are still a few matches to be played before the two can even meet. Both of them haven’t even been tested so far. We have to wait and see. But Fed’s chances to reach the final have improved dramatically after Novak’s exit. I like his chances against all the remaining players in his half. He will war up Dimi and he has Wawa’s number. Therefore I would prefer a Fed/Medvedev meeting. That could be truly interesting, although I would favor Fed.
The Djoker wasn’t treated well by the NY crowd today, which is a shame. He deserves more respect! And I still remember how devastated Rafa was when the crowd at the AO 2014 was at first somewhat hostile when he had his back injury during the warm-up before his final – also against Wawrinka.
Sorry for the strange typos because I neglected to check autocorrect 🙁
Nadal 3-0
Federer 3-0
Monfils
Rublev
$300 @ 6.25
Nadal 3-0
Federer 3-0
Monfils
Rublev
Medvedev
$200 @ $13
rafa cruises in 3; Sasha serves big and wins in 3.
Rafa in 3 or 4; Sasha in 4 or 5 sets.
Schwartzman in five,Rafa in four
Will they open the roof for Rafa’s match? Hope the rain stops!
Ricky, u pick Schwartzman?! Ok!
It’s so boring to watch Zverev. Looks unidimensional, not unlike Djokovic.
This US Open is so strange. Those that r expected to win lose and those expected to lose win, lol!!! GREAT!!!!!!
To top it off, both defending champs don’t even make it to the quarters, lol!!! Me? Done with predictions!!!
Zverev is just a joke now. What an absolute waste of talent. A 3-time Masters champion and WTF champ, who beat a Big 3 guy en route to most of those big titles, should NOT lose to a lesser player EVERY…DAMN….TIME!! Diego is a great player, and losing to someone like him OCASSIONALLY is fine. But it’s not occasionally with Zverev- it’s every single tournament. And it’s sad. It would be one thing if he was always losing to top-5, or even top-10, players. But he always loses to player who are waaay below him in terms of ranking and accomplishments. No offense to Diego, but he will probably never really come close to winning even 1 Masters title, let alone 3 of them AND the WTF. I don’t understand what it is about the Majors that is so difficult for Zverev, but it’s pretty frustrating to witness…
On the other hand, Diego is such an inspiration. The guy is so tough, so professional, and is ALWAYS punching above his weight (literally and figuratively). Just amazing. Zverev should spend more time with guys like Diego. Is Zverev had the mentality of Diego, I bet he’d have won a Major by now. And if Diego had the physical gifts that Zverev had, who knows what he could accomplish!
This is indeed strange and disappointing. Yes, Diego Schwartzmann is an inspiration (like Goffin), who makes the very best of his gifts. The same cannot be said about Zverev. As you said, Kevin – with his physique, natural gifts and talents he should simply NOT lose against a player like Schwartzmann – especially since Zverev had already done better than expected after his recent bad results. He really had the chance to do well and go much further than everybody expected. He is still young, but I start to doubt that Zverev will ever become a stable No 1 contender, as many experts have predicted.
And I wonder if he will ever solve his bewildering problems with the slams. He seems to be unable to win a couple of best-of-five matches in a row. Also, his ability to solve problems during a match and change tactics if necessary seems to be underdeveloped. He has no Plan B if things don’t go his way. And during best-of-five matches there is a higher chance that not everything works out as planned all the time. Zverev seems to lack certain mental resources.
AZ’s WTF win was legit but when he won his Masters titles other guys did the heavy lifting. Thiem beat Rafa in Rome 2017 and Madrid 2018 then fell to Zverev. Fed did not play clay those years. In 2017 Canada Rafa lost to Shapo early, and Fed was a bit of a mess – back problems I think. Djokovic was a non factor those years. So those three Masters titles look a lot more impressive than they were.
That’s a bit unfair to Schwartzman, who looked unbeatable in Los Cobos .
Certain Next Gens need to sort their attitudes out ,its like they expect everything handed to them on a plate.
Stay focused, remain confident and be strong, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDfdWNtWwAEehvA?format=jpg&name=medium
Schwartzman is on another level right now. I think he’s incredibly under appreciated and I don’t think many fans realize just how insane he is to be 5 foot 7 and hit the ball as big and as consistently as he does. He’s going to be a mighty test for either Rafa or Cilic. Meanwhile Monfils is in fine form as well and should reach the semis.
I agree Schwartzman doesn’t get the appreciation he deserves. He’s so steady on his groundstrokes, consistent serve, somehow covers the court better than most – and keeps his ranking inside the top twenty! And he always looks happy. But sad to see Poor Sascha’s slumping miserably.
Zverev is having serious problems with his second serve. The last count I heard on ESPN was 17 double faults! Unbelievable! When the serve is not working, then the whole game suffers. Watching Zverev lose a match that he should have won, I had the feeling that he may be burning out. Coming up too quickly and all the hype, then not being able to get it done at the slams. He let that match get away from him. All credit to Diego for staying in it and just hitting his shots and taking his opportunities. I knew he would give it his all. I found myself thinking about how Zverev is the more gifted and talented player, yet he just can’t get out of his own way.
Zverev needs to sort out the serve problems and get down to basics. He has the game to succeed in this sport and it would be a shame if it is wasted. He also has to win more efficiently and not get caught up in these long early round matches. Too much energy expended in the first week of a slam and then there is nothing left when it is needed most.
He’s struggling , but I agree with Benny though .Schwartzman deserves a lot more credit not just for this win.
Rafa got the early break and then gives it back. I never like to see that. This is the first decent player Rafa has faced. He needs to raise his level of play.
Okay Rafa! He gets the break back! Now hold!
If Rafa’s serves were better I would feel a lot more confident about his chances of raising the trophy! He makes me so so nervous when he is serving!
Mona,
It’s like you read my mind! That is exactly what I was thinking! I cannot relax when Rafa serves.
😱
Looking at this again, I think Schwartzman was prob best bet of the day.
Rafa does the same thing over and over, stand a hundred miles behind the baseline!!!! Its just mindboggling!!! He cannot be aggressive that way and his return has no umph!!!
I’m just so so tired of this craziness!!
Exactly! Don’t understand why he has to play from so far back, could have move forward after he returns but refuses to do so.
His first serve % is poor for a top two player!
Wow. Rafa is standing almost at the back wall to return. You can hardly see him on camera haha. It worked well the first set!
I don’t mind if he stands far to return first serve but afterwards move up to the baseline!! Sigh!!!
Rafa”s law percent of first serve and playing at the pretty much the same level if not worse than in his match against Chung! He needed to up his level for this match! He is not beating Cilic playing like this!
C’mon Rafa! You have to do better than this!
Vamos Champ!
Oh dear…. Cilic feeling it. And Rafa not so much atm.
Vamos Rafa!
Lol, Rafa let Cilic back in the match with his poxy serves so its his loss!!
He needs to serve strategically and shorten points!
not to worry, Rafa will be back in the 3rd and 4th sets
Y give himself so much trouble! What, is he doing this on purpose?!
The way Rafa is playing now, even if he beats Cilic, he’s not going to cut it against Schwartzman who will grind Rafa and his knees down!
Why is he serving so poorly his first serve and playing from miles behind the baseline? Apparently he hasn’t learnt a lesson from the Wimbledon loss to Fed, when he’s losing even in long rallies playing from so far back!
Quite a disappointing display from Rafa so far, though Cilic serves well and plays well too.
After second set, I just stop watching!!! I just can’t take it no mo’!!!
I know we have pointed this out a lot on here, but I just need to reiterate how mentally fragile Cilic is. In that point where he had the easy overhead, you can just hear him thinking to himself, “DON’T MISS! DON’T MISS! DON’T MISS!” And then he just meekly taps it RIGHT to Rafa. The guy is the one of the biggest servers in the game. There is no way to explain mistakes like that other than mental fragility. And we’ve seen it time and time and time again. Will we ever see the Cilic again who blew Fed off the court? The one who didn’t seem to think at all and just served 135 mph bombs up the T and made few UE? That Cilic was just so good, and he was mentally a different guy then. Was it just a fluke? I don’t get it. You can visibly see him tighten up on important points. It would be one thing if on every single big point the opponent hit an amazing winner that you could do nothing about, by with Cilic it’s far too often a stupid mistake or a double fault in the most crucial moments. It sucks cuz he’s such a good guy. And it’s not just against the Big 3- we see him do it against lesser opponents all the time, too.
Cilic was playing consistently well for a period hence he’s inside top ten for a few straight years. He’s derailed by injuries a few times, perhaps that explains his mental frailties. Other than his 2014, he was playing well too in 2016 winning at Cincy and Basel and finished the year as no.6.
It seems he’s going downhill since but he may still have time to pick up his game and push forward in his career as he’s only 30/31 years old.
Cilic winning the USO wasn’t a fluke. Cilic could play in the zone tennis to trouble anyone, the big three all have that experience against Cilic. When his game is on, it’s just hard to play against or beat him, you just have to wait for him to come back down to earth, as he couldn’t sustain that high level for long most of the time. The fact that he’s consistently inside top ten speaks volume about his abilities as a tennis player.
I must say he, Delpo, Stan, Murray and the old guard top tens have the misfortune of playing in the big three era; those who won slams in the big three era had to beat at least of the big three to win – Delpo in 2009 USO had to beat both Fed and Rafa; Murray had to beat Djoko in two of his three slam titles; Stan had to beat Rafa and/or Djoko to win his three slams, and Cilic had to beat Fed for his USO title. Without the big three, these players may have won a few more slams each.
Cilic has been winning title(s) every year from 2008-2018, not a bad record.
If Rafa can close this out with him being a break up, its just the kind of match Rafa wanted. Not very long and also good thrilling first two sets. Much needed match play.
Cilic has always been mentally weak. So it is not surprising that it’s happening again. That is where Rafa really has the advantage.
I am with Mona. I had to stop watching, but I was recording the match. Then I tuned in to see Rafa got the break. Replaying it Rafa raised his level and hit some amazing shots. The crowd went wild! Tell me you don’t want a New York crowd on your side!
Rafa takes the third set. This is what he needed. I say he is not match tough yet. The walkover was nit a good thing! Rafa needs to play. Cilic has the game to trouble Rafa, especially when he is not match ready. Rafa has responded.
Cilic seems to be crumbling.
I just find it so hard to watch Cilic because he has absolutely no poker face. It’s actually the opposite. He’s the most visibly distressed player I’ve ever witnessed. I just feel bad for him sometimes. And when he’s playing a mental monster like Rafa, it makes him look even worse!
If you hit too flat its almost impossible to beat Rafa. He has such an advantage in the margin for error department. He can step up the intensity without sacrificing a lot of safety.
Cilic is a bit like Berdych in that regard but not as extreme. Fed, Djokovic and Wawrinka hit enough top spin to balance things out.
Nadal put on the pressure exactly when he needed to. Finding another gear is something the Big 3 can do more consistently than anyone else. It’s an impressive sight to behold.
Cilic is literally panicking now, and when he does he loses all sense of strategy. I feel for him.
What a shot around the post! A federer like shot that he pulled off against kyrgios last year
Ok guys 3 hr match…as I feared it was not too easy..I did not watch..please tell me no injury scare..that’s the most I fear when rafa plays on hc
N god diego next..he gives rafa nightmares
No injuries. He looked very…spry.
Rafa has a 7-0 head-to-head over Schwartzman. Diego has a great game, but since he’s so short, Rafa’s ball bounces up way too high for him to handle successfully.
Thanks Cheryl..hope rafa disposes off diego in straights
No injuries! I didn’t watch either, until the very end, which was great! Rafa seemed to be thoroughly enjoying himself. Cilic was very well behaved, as always, something I appreciate more than I used to.
I only saw the last couple of games, but the McEnroe Bros thought Rafa was in great form and he certainly was for the bit I saw!
Point of the tournament!!! VAMOS!!!
My thoughts during the match:
Set 1:
Rafa won but that was not a convincing set. Apart from fast and heavy second serves, hard to see any positives. The commentators were fully convinced though.
Set 2:
Cilic gets better and makes Rafa pays. Just what I feared!! That was inevitable.
Set 3:
That miraculous break early on had me jumping from my couch and this is in spite of having office at 8 am in the morning uk time.
Rafa broke Marin’s spirit but every shot he was hitting then was twice as much aggressive. Forehands were deeper, backhand was struck harder and direction was getting changed with ease. Rafa changed his 2nd serve return strategy by hugging the baseline.
Set 4:
It was now a matter of how many games Marin would win. Rafa was putting on a masterclass and he was in unplayable mode. Only a peak Novak or Roger could have stayed with that Rafa. The only lacking element was low first serve pct but it was damn effective when he got it in
Ps. That forehand around the net was MAGIC.
Good to read this vr that he ended way better than he started…
But if he starts so slow first 2 sets..Fed will eat him up
We are talking about Fed already? That is getting way ahead of ourselves! One match at a time!
Thanks for the recap, VR! Always appreciate your observations. Yes, that forehand around the net was MAGIC – Rafa’s comment on it? “I got lucky”. Hope he keeps on getting lucky! Vamos Rafa!!
vr,
Love reading your analysis! Rafa did say in the post match interview that he changed his position for the second serve return. He realized that he needed to change his strategy and that was the key to turning around the match. When he broke Cilic in the third set, he just cane up with brilliant shots. I started watching again in that third set. Cilic then double faulted away the break of serve. That was the turning point.
The fourth set was just a joy to watch! This is what I was hoping for with Rafa. That he would raise his level of play and just go to another gear. The crowd had Rafa’s back. It is like synergy with Rafa and the New York crowd. They feed off each other. Just the reactions on the faces of the crowd really said it all. When Rafa is in full flight, watching him is like a natural high.
THAT SHOT! To give him match point! It had me jumping out of my chair and screaming! Unreal! MAGIC is the word for it! No matter how many times I watch it, I still am amazed! What a moment! The crowd gave him a standing ovation!
This is a match Rafa really needed. He was challenged and had to change his tactics and go up a few gears. This will set him up nicely for Diego.
This is why I watch Rafa. There is nothing like it when he takes off and goes to another level. Loved it!
From the beginning of the first set, even though he won it, i was questioning his positioning, I was like y oh y!! You could hardly see Rafa on the tv screen! And Cilic made him pay in the second set at which point I turned off my TV!
Then in the third set my mother asked aren’t you watching? I said hell no!! She said no, I think you should. Then i saw he had changed his position. I said well at least there’s that, he’s in for a chance!
This is exactly the reason y Roger whooped his butt at Wimby! Rafa just like standing in the bleachers to play tennis. Its just mind boggling! But at least he learnt his lesson. Let’s see what he takes to Diego!
VAMOS!!!
@NNY, totally agree when you say “This is a match Rafa really needed. He was challenged and had to change his tactics and go up a few gears. This will set him up nicely for Diego.”
@Mona, good point. Rafa was somehow tactically very poor in that match and didn’t adapt. Normally he is the best in that department. Even Toni mentioned in an interview later that Rafa accepted his return positioning was messed up. He lost too much ground and …. well, I’ll refrain from analyzing that match further.
Agree with VR’s take. Rafa said it himself in his on court interview, that after losing the second set, he changed his return positions on second serves, and that was a good strategy, not allowing Cilic to step inside the court too often after his second serve.
Rafa was standing way back during set one and two and so giving Cilic plenty of chances to step inside the court to dictate play. Rafa raised his level in set three and four hence he won them relatively easily.
Rafa must up his first serve % going forward, the rest of the guys left in the draw are not going to give him the luxury to fight back so easily after dropping a set here or there.
I see a lot of Rafans are at their worst nervous selves when watching Rafas matches. Me and Sanju dont watch at all. A 6-1 6-2 in the 3rd and fourth should actually be a comfortable confident scoreline.
The problem with Rafa is that he almost never gets a free point on serve. While he tries to serve wide on Deuce and T on Ad first serves, he never does it often enough to walk through his service games. He rarely gives us non rally points ( even if some are short). With the rallies we almost never know if he is going to absolutely win the point.When it comes to retrievers like Djok or possibly Swartzman its going to be even more nerve wracking
His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130+ even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.
He might be ok with Diego but there is zero chance if he is going to stay back with Fed on the fence. Its going to make Fed confident to make aggressive enough first serves and he is going to lose out the rallies like at Wimbledon because Fed is going to press. Its plain common sense to say that deep strategy wouldnt work. Is it that the coaches arent saying it or Rafa just wont listen I have no idea.
I am fairly confident there is a 90% chance that Rafa reaches the final and is game is enough to grind out Diego or a Berretini or a Monfils, but zero zero chance if he stays back with Fed. and to me he wouldnt be able to change that just for the final. He hasnt changed it in months and years and he is just too stubborn.
I am happy he changed atleast the second serve return in the 3rd and 4th. But doesnt that say he should have been doing that right from the first ? .Blows my mind why someone that could become the Greatest is so stubborn on what I think is a fairly simple change for him to deal with and have easier wins
I hope he stands on baseline for second serves now for all his matches…please remember he did the same in uso 13 final too n he thumped Novak.. if he knows it, why does he not do it
Good question and only he can answer that. At Wimbledon against Fed, he was also playing from way behind the baseline and so Fed won most of the rallies, long or short ones.
Hes just having the habit of playing his clay court tennis on the other surfaces, old habits die hard I think.
can’t question his tactics overall as he is winning the high percentage of first serve points on the tour. I agree he needs to stay closer to the baseline for second serve returns. THe problem was his inability to adapt and change! He can always tinker and find the right balance but it was kinf of a brain fart in that match.
I guess my comments get too long it requires and approval. So will split into two.
– I see a lot of Rafans are at their worst nervous selves when watching Rafas matches. Me and Sanju dont watch at all. A 6-1 6-2 in the 3rd and fourth should actually be a comfortable confident scoreline.
– The problem with Rafa is that he almost never gets a free point on serve. While he tries to serve wide on Deuce and T on Ad first serves, he never does it often enough to walk through his service games. He rarely gives us non rally points ( even if some are short). With the rallies we almost never know if he is going to absolutely win the point.When it comes to retrievers like Djok or possibly Swartzman its going to be even more nerve wracking
– His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130+ even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.
I agree. I wrote a long comment in line with Lucky and Sanju but guess it needs approval. Tried splitting into two and still didnt work.
Cheryl / Ricky. Please approve my comment and cancel the repeat on the second. Will wait for it.
Creature of habit but if he needs to cross 20,the habit needs to change. Time is running out for 20
Guys what do you make of A. Zverev?
I know he’s still quite young, but do you think he’ll ever win a major? a couple years a go some were saying he’d be the next big thing in men’s tennis.
I think he will, it’s a matter of time I feel. I initially thought that he will be a multiple slam winner, something like a Becker or John MAC, given that he’ll outlast the golden era of tennis.
Now, I feel he’s too one dimensional and there’re so many up and comers that I feel he won’t be able to win that many slams, maybe one or two?
He has a big serve and big ground strokes, so no reason he can’t win a slam or two if he puts in the efforts.
Personally I think he’s too defensive and just doesn’t impose himself enough to challenge. He’s a good mover considering his size, but he still needs to be closer up to the baseline line & hitting a harder FH.
He’ll probably win a slam at some point, but right now he’s obviously still some way off. I think it’ll take some time for him to adjust his game to the level of making slam semi’s/finals.
Worried about Diego,he always gives Rafa fits. He once made Rafa play 4 hrs at AO with him..then Rafa had to retire next match midway with Cilic due to knees .
He is saying he is confident he can beat Rafa
https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Rafael_Nadal/76447/diego-schwartzman-shares-plan-to-beat-rafael-nadal/
The shackles were broken in set 3 yesterday. Rafa will be ruthless now. The guy was averaging 103 mph on second serves at one point and even clocked a 109 mph second serve. Remember the Mayer match in 2017 USO? I got the same feeling. He finished on a high note and it will take a huge effort to take this Rafa down. Only a red hot Fed having an incredible serving day can perhaps CAN do it.
Sanju…I have no doubt that Schwartzy feels very confident & very determined going into this match…but….feels confident & execute it r 2 different things…esp.when at the other net is Rafa…A healthy Rafa i mean…
But i also fully expect Rafa will take us ride his usual crazy walkabout rollercoaster for a while b4 serving us a chocolate ice cream at the end of it…Ughh…heaven!(At least b4 meeting with Roger!hehe)
Your take on roger ? God knows why Rafa invites ppl like Diego to his academy who want to beat him so bad
Good heavens, if Rafa shunned everyone who wants to beat him he’d be very lonely. Rafa loves competition and values it in others. He was having a great time playing Cilic last night – it was the sort of night he lives for.
If someone can take Fed out, Rafa #19 will be a done deal.
Who will ? I don’t see anyone taking him out
Stan, provided he doesn’t play a long match vs Medvedev, unlike at FO when he had a long match with Tsitsipas before facing off against Fed.
I think Medvedev has a better chance . Stan plays too far behind the baseline, Fed definitely a bad matchup for him , too match. fed has been brilliant all thru the year and it would need a special performance to beat Fed.
Medvedev, if he is fully fit is the only one. Stan shows up for Djoker clashes, but somehow is never able to beat Fed.
That is the conundrums of conundrums, isn’t it! Lol!!
Imagine he has never beaten Roger, i don’t think!
he does show up but it is a very different match up. I have clear reasons in my head as to why he is not able to perform at the same level against Fed and Rafa
He did, at FO2015 on his way to his FO title. He pushed Fed hard during this year’s FO, and imo, if not for his long match in the previous round, perhaps he could’ve beaten Fed.
When it comes to slams, Stan is a different animal ever since he won the AO2014 title. He now believes that when he’s playing top level tennis, he’s able to big the Big three. He has already beaten all three of them at the slams.
Regarding Zverev, I think he can go quite far but unless he improves certain areas, his problems will just linger on. I was trying to see where he has room to improve and what keeps him apart from the top pack.
Thing is, you’d think with his height and big serve, Zverev would be winning a very high % of services games. In fact, he has won 79.4% service games this year compared to 88-89% range for the big 3. Issue is Zverev’s second serve where he is unable to win more than 45% points. That is too low and shows that his second serve is not very high quality and his baseline game not steady enough. Even NK wins 51% of second serve points!
On teh return side, he has won 26% service games and I think that’s decent. Don’t expect him to hit 30+ because that is reserved for a small class of players. Even Fed sits at 24.5% so I guess he doing a decent job there.
The biggest area of improvement, game wise, is winning more points behind his second serve which can only come via improved serving and better baseline game. I agree he needs to be more aggressive with his forehand.
P.s, the return games won leaders this year are
1. Rafa 35.9%
2. Novak 31.8%
3.Schwatrzman 30.3%
Vamorafa, Y don’t you publish a tennis channel on Youtube? You are quite the analyst!😊👍
lol, only if you assure me of being the first subscriber? haha!
thanks for the kind comment, though, Monalisa 🙂
Oh, certainly VR, without a doubt!!!!😊
VR, I think what you mentioned only happened this year. He was ok during 2017/2018, if not he won’t go as high as world no.3. He won’t be able to beat Fed and Djoko B2B to win the WTF title if he’s so bad.
He said he had some personal problems (with his agent I believe), hence he wasn’t able to concentrate on his tennis this year. He’ll pick up from where he left off I feel, once he and his team could work things out for him.
Thanks for the detailed analysis! Very insightful. Can you explain also why Zverev has so many problems specifically with the slams. He only reached the quarterfinals of a slam twice and regularly has troubles to even reach the second week. One glaring problem is that he is prone to spend far too much time and energy on-court in the early rounds against inferior players and then runs out of steam in the following matches. I also think that his ability to solve problems and change tactics if necessary is underdeveloped. He has no Plan B. This is one of Rafa’s strongest points btw. He’s one of the best problem solver. Medvedev also did change his game tactics against Novak in the Cincy semis. He gambled on his second serve, and it succeeded.
I also think that Zverev needs a different coach. I don’t think he can be able to compete for the big titles when he keeps his father as his coach. He did win the WTF with Lendl as his coach, and everybody thought that this partnership was going to work out. But the opposite happened and things unravelled very fast during the following season. Becker who has a good line of communication with the Zverev family, thinks that something happened after the WTF which caused a rift.
Vamosrafa..your thoughts on Diego n Gael/ berretini n fed Vs Rafa ? I know one match at a time..ok atleast tell about diego
It will be a good rhythm mach for Rafa in my view. Rafa’s forehand will be pushed a lot and that’ll prepare him for the next rounds. The rallies can of course be quite long and draining but Rafa’s got plenty of gas in the task. Like I said, Cilic awakened the beast yesterday just like Mayer did in USO 2017. The Rafa express will be very hard to stop now.
Diogo’s an incredible returning to Rafa needs to improve that first serve % and keep serving big second serves. Diogo doesn’t have a big serve so that is good 🙂
Rafa will win in 3 sets in my view. Could be 4 but not more than that!
My comments from yesterday never made it here. So will try to split in parts.
I see a lot of Rafans are at their worst nervous selves when watching Rafas matches. Me and Sanju dont watch at all. A 6-1 6-2 in the 3rd and fourth should actually be a comfortable confident scoreline.
The problem with Rafa is that he almost never gets a free point on serve. While he tries to serve wide on Deuce and T on Ad first serves, he never does it often enough to walk through his service games. He rarely gives us non rally points ( even if some are short). With the rallies we almost never know if he is going to absolutely win the point.When it comes to retrievers like Djok or possibly Swartzman its going to be even more nerve wracking
I stopped watching totally PK after AO 17 loss in final. That crushed me as I never expected it and he lost the double career slam too.
His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130+ even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.
ok I give up. even splitting doesnt work.
I was saying how Nadal with his current strategy would have a zero chance against Fed. But its sad to see Fed is out now. Those two deserved atleast one match up here and a final would have been nice. But now Its Nadals best chance to go through all the way even if Medvedev is a bit scary at the moment.
PK, it happened to me, too, that I wrote long comments here, which vanished into cyberspace 🙁
I was pretty nervous, too, when I thought about the prospect that Rafa might have to play Fed in the final – although I would’ve given Rafa a better chance to come out of his Fed-funk of recent years here in NY where the hard courts play slower than at the AO and are different than at Wimby. And while his first serve percentage could be better, he is in splendid form right now and definitely not tired. However, I was hopeful that Fed might not even make it into the final. I really think that age catches up with him at last. I was not looking at Dimi, though, as a potential Fed-slayer, but at the young gun Medvedev, who seems to be completely fearless right now. Even the hostile NY crowd can’t hurt him and seems to fir
But Rafa still needs to win two more matches in order to even reach the final! While I really don’t think that the remaining players in his half are a serious threat (and except for Berettini he knows them), it’s always possible that he has a bad day or gets hurt. Look at Fed! Who would’ve thought that he would be taken out by Dimi of all players! However, if Rafa stays healthy I am optomistic right now. He knows that he has a a golden opportunity to win another non-clay slam. And normally Rafa can handle this kind of challence.
Medvedev I think is too injured and will retire in his next game or the final if he makes it. Rafa on paper should be favourite with Dimitrov, but again we have got to deal with two more matches from Rafa. Hopefully they are quick and straightforward. Rafas best chance for another US Open and I am 99% positive he will make it this time. But Hey its Rafa. will likely make it harder for himself and us 🙂
Zero chance is harsh PK. It was 50 50 ..Rafa was playing better than fed this tourney
Sanju – I qualified it with saying “with his current strategy”.
LittleFoot – Inshort I was just saying, Rafas deep positioning on returns and extended rallies and his stubborness on only trying to change too late in the game will work with others but not Fed. Yes Fed is now out but I still maintain his strategy is only making it harder for his wins while the adjustments would make him a sure win. He has the game to not make us nervous and has straightforward wins. He just wont do it!
His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130+ even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.
Part 2 – His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130+ even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.
Cheryl – Would you be able to approve my comment and delete the repeats ?
His strategy on staying at the fence for returns is ridiculous. No other player does it. It may work ok on clay, but on hard courts, the one year he sweeped Rogers, Cincy and the US, he was returning from on the baseline that even Djokovic said that was pretty aggressive. and he clocked speeds 130 plus even if I am happy now that he serves 120 on an avg.