U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Dimitrov

It will be the first Grand Slam semifinal without any member of the Big 3 since Wimbledon in 2018 (Kevin Anderson vs. John Isner) when Danill Medvedev and Dimitrov collide in an improbable matchup at the U.S. Open on Friday evening.

Medvedev’s presence in the semis is not entirely shocking aside from the fact that he found himself in world No. 1 Novak Djokovic’s section of the bracket. Djokovic, however, retired while trailing Stan Wawrinka two sets to love in the fourth round and then Medvedev defeated Wawrinka 7-6(6), 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 on Wednesday afternoon. The 23-year-old Russian’s energy-sapping, crowd-enraging run also includes victories over Prajnesh Gunneswaran, Hugo Dellien, Feliciano Lopez, and Dominik Koepfer.

One more win would propel Medvedev into an incredible fourth consecutive title match. He finished runner-up in Washington, D.C. and Montreal to begin his hard-court summer before lifting the trophy in Cincinnati.

“I am surprised; I am surprised,” the soon-to-be world No. 4 admitted. “That’s what I’ve been working for all my life, especially the last two and a half years. That’s where I’ve been going step by step. I was improving my rankings. But I am still really surprised with the way this last four weeks have been going. I mean, so many circumstances. Usually when you make a final like I did in Washington, come to Montreal, you’re a little bit tired. You’re like saying to yourself, ‘Okay, I’ve done already a final, maybe this tournament is not that important, I’m a little bit tired. Then I’ve done final of a Masters, which was the best result in my life so far. Coming to Cincinnati, same…. Again I was like, ‘Okay, now I’ve done the best result of my life, maybe I should take this tournament easy.’ Then I won it.

“That’s what I’ve been working for. That’s what I’ve dreamed of. I’ve achieved some of what I’ve dreamt.”

Dimitrov’s summer had been a nightmare, but his U.S. Open has developed into something that not a single person could have expected. The 28-year-old Bulgarian was a disastrous 1-7 in his eight most recent matches prior to arriving in New York City, where he has suddenly reeled off wins over Andreas Seppi, Kamil Majchrzak, Alex de Minaur, and Roger Federer–the latter in five sets on Wednesday night.

Dimitrov has been both lucky and good this fortnight, as he got a walkover from Borna Coric in round two, Majchrzak was a lucky loser, and Federer was dealing with an upper-back injury. Still, the world No. 78 has been showcasing his best tennis since winning the Nitto ATP Finals in 2017.

“I kept on believing in the process, kept on working, kept on trying to improve whatever else I had to improve on my end,” Dimitrov explained. “I really controlled the things that I could. I think that’s as simple as that. Sometimes the most simple things are hardest. Yeah, it was not a pretty time (over the past two years). I’m not going to lie.

“It was that low that I don’t even want to go there any more. It was just obviously injury, losing points, ranking. That’s the lowest point of any player. I think the past six, seven months have been pretty rough for me. But I had somebody to lean on, my friends, my family. I kept on believing again in the work, the rehab I had to put behind my shoulder, the exercise, the practice, fixing up the racket a little bit. There were so many things I had to adjust in such a small but big period of time. Next thing you know, you’re almost end of the year, you have a result like that. It’s pretty special to me.”

It could continue, too, as Medvedev may not be 100 percent due to a left-quad issue and general fatigue. That being said, two days off instead of one will do the favorite a world of good. For both good and bad reasons, Medvedev has arguably been the biggest story on the ATP Tour this summer–especially at the U.S. Open–and it only feels right for him to make final number four in a row.

If Medvedev is close to 100 percent, he will likely be too consistent and win too many free points on serve for Dimitrov.

Pick: Medvedev in 4

[polldaddy poll=10400699]

53 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Medvedev vs. Dimitrov

  1. If both players are healthy, I see this going five sets. I give Medvedev the slight edge, but Dimitrov really impressed me against Fed, and if he brings his best he could definitely pull off the upset. I think the key will be Med’s health. Medvedev in 5.

  2. 1.50 for Medvedevhas to be one of the best value bets of the tournament. Dimitrov will have to play even.better than he did against Fed and Medvedev will have to have a very off day for Dimitrov to win IMO.

    Medvedev is well rested now too and Dimitrov will likely turn up flat after beating Fed where he was running on adrenalin.

    Medvedev 3-0

  3. This match should be interesting. My damn bracket pick is Medvedev and I think he’s too clever for Dimitrov. I’ll be happy if Grigor wins but I just think the Mad Russian is mentally tougher. And it was good to see Grigor win his match vs Federer but I can’t trust Grigor to do more than take a set maybe. Prove me wrong, Grigor!!

    Medvedev in 3 or 4 or preferably 5.

  4. ?? I see a poll. It’s overwhelmingly in favor of Medvedev. I think Dimi at his best could take Medvedev, but I don’t think he’s there yet.

  5. It would appear that Dimi has come to play. My thoughts on this match are pretty similar to Elizabeth’s. I think the obvious pick is Medvedev, but Dimi could make this interesting.

    So far Dimi has played very well. It appears that the win over Fed gave him confidence and belief. He is playing like it.

    I don’t like the Mad Russian. Love that name! Perfect! I do respect his game and talent. But it seems that everyone is on the Medvedev bandwagon. I tend to be a little skeptical and cautious with the supposed next big thing in men’s tennis.

    • Sorry NNY

      Almost immediately after I told you I was here for you during the last Rafa match, I fell asleep. Again, I’m sleepy – and don’t know how long I’ll last, lol

      Set point Grigor. But Medvedev is good at fighting those off. Good tennis by both!

    • That’s y i can’t make a call. I feel Dimi played the better tennis in the first set but all of a sudden Dimi allowed errors to creep into his game, sigh! Hope he can recover and make this an interesting five set encounter, lol!!

      Medvedev is remaining cool and calm and waiting for his opportunities which obviously paid off!

    • It would seem so! Medvedev is just really stable and solid right now! Dimi will have to lift his game, come to net more, do something a bit different! Got break in second set and lost it straight away! Cant let that happen. Thats y i hate early breaks!

    • Elizabeth,

      That is the key. Medvedev has won so much lately. You start feeling like you can’t lose. Dimi did well to reach the semis here. But after a horrendous year, I just don’t see h getting to a slam final.

  6. They are not giving the crowd anything to get excited about. Surely, Dimitrov can play better than this. I haven’t bought into the “Medvedev is the next big thing yet”, I’m afraid.

  7. I think we are watching a very entertaining match! Both guys playing some great tennis and fighting hard! Hope they play more than just three sets!

  8. hahaha Grigor is always ready to take the ball in the air. He’s like a frisbee dog. Medvedev reminds me of a big cat.

    The crowd has been very silent while their at it. Okay there is some chanting between points but I can’t tell for if it’s for the Bulgarian or the Russian.

    • I hope someday Grigor will find his way back; but this match did not help.

      Medvedev in the final, just as I picked. hahahaha Medvedev tells the world that he loves USA. lol

      Now. Vamos Rafa!

  9. The score is exactly as I expected. I knew Medvedev was taking this…the way he moves, the way he plays key points, he never panicked even when he was behind…and he certainly did not seem to be suffering from any discomfort although tapped all over….Dimi was just outsmarted and outplayed out there…

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