U.S. Open men’s singles best and worst bets

The U.S. Open gets underway on Monday at Flushing Meadows, where a three-man battle is expected to develop. That was certainly the case at Wimbledon; Roger Federer beat Rafael Nadal in a high-quality semifinal and then lost to Novak Djokovic in an epic title match. Can anyone else make anything different happen in New York, or will the Big 3 once again dominate?

Let’s take a look at some of the best–and worst–bets.

Dark Horse: Stan Wawrinka (40-to-1 to win the title)

There’s Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer, and then there’s everyone else. Djokovic is favored at 6-to-5 to win the title, Nadal is a +300 second choice, and Federer comes in next at 7-to-1. You have to go down to 12-to-1 to find an on-fire Daniil Medvedev, who has reached three consecutive finals: in Washington, D.C. (runner-up), Montreal (runner-up), and Cincinnati (champion).

But 12-to-1 is not overly enticing for the 24-year-old Russian. A better option is Stan Wawrinka at 40-to-1. Wawrinka is a former champion of this event (2016) and he is an awesome 40-12 lifetime at the U.S. Open. The 24th-ranked Swiss has cooled off a little bit since reaching the French Open quarters, but there is something about New York that brings out the best in his game. You can bet with William Hill throughout the upcoming fortnight.

Best value pick: Nick Kyrgios to reach the semifinals (16-to-1)

The section of the draw that everyone wants to be in is the quarter that is without any of the Big 3. That’s where No. 4 seed Dominic Thiem resides. Thiem made a run to the USO quarters last year, but he has always been better on clay than on hard courts and he is also dealing with a viral illness right now. The Austrian is a huge question mark.

To say the door is open here would be a gross understatement. Kyrgios is never a safe pick under any circumstances because of his mental game (or lack thereof), but his talent level is such that he could easily make a semifinal run. Wimbledon semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut is also a strong pick at 6-to-1, but Kyrgios at 16-to-1 is hard to pass up. You can use a Matchbook bonus code for your tennis betting.

Worst bet: Alexander Zverev to reach the semifinals (6-to-1)

At the other end of the spectrum is Zverev, who is the second favorite to emerge from Nadal’s quarter of the draw. That sort of make sense since the 22-year-old German is the the No. 6 seed and biggest challenger to Nadal on paper, but the reality of the situation is far worse for him. Zverev’s match record since the start of the grass-court swing is 7-6 and he has never reached the last four at any major. He has made it to just two quarterfinals—both on clay at Roland Garros.

Nadal will almost certainly take care of business in his soft section. If he doesn’t, a more likely candidate than Zverev to advance is Karen Khachanov.

Champion pick: Novak Djokovic (6-to-5)

Djokovic is a big favorite for a reason and anything better than even money represents decent value. The top-ranked Serb has won four of the last five Grand Slams and each of the last four on hard courts. His draw is not a simple one, but if there is anyone who can handle a difficult road it is Djokovic.