U.S. Open Day 1 expert picks, including Fognini vs. Opelka and Carreno Busta vs. Pella

Expert Picks are back for Day 1 of the U.S. Open, with Fabio Fognini and Guido Pella among those in action. Ricky Dimon and Cheryl Murray of The Grandstand preview four of the best matchups and make their predictions.

(11) Fabio Fognini vs. Reilly Opelka

Ricky: Opelka is a nightmarish opponent in the opening round of a Grand Slam; just ask Stan Wawrinka! The 6’11” American took down Wawrinka in round two of Wimbledon and his hard-court summer includes a semifinal showing in Atlanta. But Fognini is formidable, himself–at least when his head is on straight. Although he may be at his best on clay, the Italian is a fine hard-court player and his U.S. Open resume includes a famous five-set upset of Rafael Nadal. The No. 11 seed should survive a competitive contest that will feature lots of bad body language on both sides. Fognini in 4: 6-7(5), 6-4, 7-6(7), 6-3.

Cheryl: Opelka is a miserable first-round opponent. He’s just shy of 7’0” with the kind of first serve that can quite literally win matches for him. In fact, he has the second-most aces in 2019 (727) on the ATP tour after Isner. It’s the kind of serve that means if you donate a lousy service game or two, you might be going home early. Fognini has had a few decent hard-court tournaments this summer, most recently with a QF showing in Montreal. He’ll be the favorite, but I wouldn’t necessarily be surprised if Opelka snagged the upset. Fognini in 5: 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-7(7), 7-5, 6-4.

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(19) Guido Pella vs. Pablo Carreno Busta

Ricky: Nothing has five-setter written all over it quite like a battle between Pella and Carreno Busta. This will be a baseline slugfest with long rally after long rally; it would be no surprise to see it go past the four-hour mark. Carreno Busta, who leads the head-to-head series 1-0, is a former U.S. Open semifinalist (2017). He may be rounding back into form thanks to a third-round result in Cincinnati as a qualifier. Pella made his major breakthrough at Wimbledon (quarterfinals) and lightning may not be able to strike twice. Carreno Busta in 5: 6-3, 2-6, 7-6(5), 6-3, 7-5.

Cheryl: It seems like every year at Wimbledon there is at least one surprise quarterfinalist. This year that was Pella. Since then, his results have been a mixed bag. He made the semis in Los Cabos but crashed out of Montreal and Cincinnati in the third and second rounds, respectively. Carreno Busta is a tricky first-round opponent for Pella. The world No. 64 won the pair’s only other encounter on the indoor courts of Vienna. PCB had to qualify for Cincinnati, and even still he had a couple of decent wins over Gilles Simon and John Isner before running into Novak Djokovic. Pella in 5: 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 7-5, 6-2.

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Andreas Seppi vs. Grigor Dimitrov

Ricky: Amazingly enough, these two veterans have never faced each other. Almost as amazing is the fact that this no longer a particularly notable first-round matchup at a slam. A few years ago it would have been one of the highlights. Dimitrov has been a disaster since the start of the 2018, but Seppi has also come perilously close to falling off the tennis map. There will be a whole lot of pushing and defense being played between two veterans short on confidence. And the Bulgarian plays much better defense than the 35-year-old Seppi. Dimitrov in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 6-2, 6-4.

Cheryl: If you didn’t know the rankings involved in this match, you’d think Dimitrov is an easy pick. Two years ago, he was the No. 3 player in the world. He’s not now, though. He’s the world No. 78, ranked one spot lower than Seppi. The poor ranking is due at least in part to the fact that he’s only won one match since the French Open. One match. In six tournaments. Of course, Seppi lost nine matches in a row earlier this spring, so he’s not exactly tearing it up right now, either. Since Dimitrov is the better hard-court player, I’m going with him to advance. Dimitrov in 4: 6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 7-5.

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(26) Taylor Fritz vs. Feliciano Lopez

Ricky: Lopez was the toast of the tennis world at Queen’s Club, where he improbably captured the title in both singles and doubles (with Andy Murray). At this point in his career, however, grass may be the only real outlet for the 37-year-old Spaniard. He has struggled since that amazing week in London and might be less than 100 percent physically for this one. Fritz, on the other hand, is flying high with two recent finals in Atlanta and Los Cabos. He will likely treat the American crowd to a routine win. Fritz in 3: 7-6(4), 6-4, 6-2.

Cheryl: Fritz had some good results on North American hard courts heading into the summer Masters events in Montreal and Cincy. He made the final in both Atlanta and Los Cabos, and thus finds himself with a seed (26) at the U.S. Open. He’ll be the heavy favorite against first-round opponent Lopez. The Spaniard came from out of nowhere to win Queen’s Club a few months ago, but he’s still ranked 63rd in the world with few recent hard-court accomplishments. This shouldn’t be overly complicated for Fritz. Fritz in 3: 7-6(4), 7-5, 6-4.

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