Expert picks at the U.S. Open are wrapping up with the men’s singles final on Sunday. It’s Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev, with history on the line. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev
Ricky: I can see valid arguments on both sides. Djokovic has not been dominant this fortnight, Medvedev is 14-1 since Wimbledon, and their head-to-head history has been relatively competitive. But I think all of that goes out the door in this situation: not only a major final, but also one in which Djokovic is facing someone other than Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer. And it’s not just any major final; the calendar-year Grand Slam and 21 slam titles are on the line. Nobody has ever been as tough mentally under these kinds of conditions as the 34-year-old Serb. Oh, yeah; he’s not too shabby physically, either. Medvedev is not the kind of player who can hit Djokovic off the court; the Russian is going to have to beat him at his own game. That just isn’t happening in this particular match. It’s too important for Djokovic; it’s an opportunity he probably won’t come close to letting slip away. Djokovic in 4: 7-6(4), 6-4, 4-6, 6-2.
Cheryl: It’s not that Medvedev can’t beat Djokovic. The world No. 1 holds a 5-3 record over the underdog–hardly an emphatic head-to-head edge. It’s just that Medvedev won’t. History is on the line on Sunday. BIG history. A calendar-year Grand Slam. It’s the kind of moment for which Novak Djokovic is uniquely suited. It’s no accident that the player with probably the most impressive mental toughness of all time is poised to do the unthinkable. He isn’t the greatest server on tour, but he’s probably the best server under pressure. He brings the heat exactly when he needs to. There is also the fact that Djokovic just gave Medvedev a shellacking in the final of the Australian Open. This one is going to be more competitive. Djokovic actually hasn’t played as well as he’s capable over this fortnight. The Russian may even take an early lead, but in a best-of-five match on a hard court, it’s simply impossible to pick against Djokovic. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 7-5, 7-6, 5-7, 6-2.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Prior to the start of the U.S. Open, it was being reported that the speed of the courts–particularly Ashe–was faster than anyone could ever recall. This fact “may” be relevant during stretches in this final since it was in Cincinnati two years ago that Medvedev was able to utilize the quick courts there to his advantage to defeat Djokovic and then continue to play exceptional tennis since that time. The speedy courts in New York have been favorable to the Russian, as he has dropped just one set in reaching the final. Djokovic continues to take his time in getting into the flow of his game, as he has inexplicably dropped the opening set in his last four matches. Despite the fact that the last six meetings have been split, it will come down to the ability to focus for more than three hours. Medvedev has had the unfortunate ability to lose his focus (disagreeing with the chair umpire, running into TV cameras on the court, and destroying racquets), which has cost him dearly at times this year. Meanwhile, Djokovic has his eyes firmly on the grandest of prizes that has not been seen on the ATP tour since 1969–the calendar-year Grand Slam. One more win and that monumental accomplishment will be his. Novak Djokovic will not be denied. Djokovic in 5: 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 2-6, 6-3.
WWW?
When your predictions are a little bit better than they have been this tournament you can claim to be 100% certain of the future. Until that happens, please refrain from such a high degree of arrogance.
5 sets but Medvedev doesn’t have a chance with everything we discussed. Good one.
A confirmed 21st slam. No other logical outcome.
The experts really know the game, and I appreciate the “history”….but today is going to be different….Med in 4.
Latest update from IBM Watson – 59/41
https://www.usopen.org/en_US/matchinsights/1701.html
Apparently, IBM Watson is impacted by ongoing market sentiment.
Sorry 51/49
I don’t have any faith in Watson’s tennis predictions. To be honest I have little faith in anyone’s tennis predictions!
From what I can tell, Watson is very reliable if there’s a lot of historical data available and not so reliable when data is limited (i.e. when the player is relatively new on the scene or performing way above their historical. Of course that’s an assumption but it seems to be the case.
I reckon this current prediction could be very reliable. There’s nothing in it.
In actual fact, i’d go one step further and suggest that Medvedev could be ahead on current form but Djokovic’s long historical metrics in these conditions are holding his rating up.
I’m not sure Watson handles potential fatigue very well or at all.
Not market sentiment; it continually searches/processes up-to-date relevant data.
What is mkt sentiment ? I thought betting odds are heavily in favour of novak
I edited it; not market sentiment. I doubt Watson is influenced by betting odds. That would defeat the purpose of being a independent prediction system.
The odds are heavily in favour of Djokovic but not necessarily a true reflection of their chances.
Just realized, I picked Medvedev in my bracket…the reason was I doubted Djokovic would beat Zverev.
Also the fact that the courts are really fast which wont suit Djoko as much.
But now he’s in the final I still have to back Djoko
Unreal from meddy! Djoko not 100 percent but his <100 has been enuf to win 27 matches this year..
Novak loses in straight sets. The next gen is here.
So the three titans tied at 20 going into 2021😀.. rafa please heal and come back strong
Brilliant Meddy 🙂
Excellent match. Meddy is just wondrous.
Congrats meddy!!
Rod Laver still the goat.
Thank you! Yes, Rod Laver forever and always the best!
Now Rafa please get your foot healed and come back to us!
Big words seem impressive when they come off but seem ridiculous when they dont.. novak said he will play as if it is the last match of his career.. certianly was extremely flat
His words could prove prophetic…after a match like that , a lot of people would make it their last …;)
Let me tell you something! I do not ever want to hear anyone diss my New York fans again! They were beyond generous to Novak after he lost.
Love you New York! Always!
😍
The thing I enjoyed most about this or any tournament was the return of the crowd,
and what a lovely atmosphere it was .
It was wonderful to see tennis fans at the US Open.
I am so proud of my hometown fans. They gave Novak a great ovation during the trophy ceremony. It is very hard to come so close to the calendar slam.
Shld we come n stink the thread poking fun at djoko losing the biggest match of his career ( his own words ) in straight sets n being totally flat like djoko fans do here after rafa n fed losses ? I think we are more gracious , so we won’t..
Commies to djoko , tough luck and huge congrats to Dannil..what a performance ..
Btw no anslyst anywer picked meddy , he said balls to u all..I’ll show you tonight n he did ..he’s not no 2 for no reason for no one to give him a chance ..we are fans but analysts are supposed to be better isn’t it ?
Djoko put undue extra pressure on himself by saying I’ll play like last match of my career , heart ,soul ,head ,body what not ..
Sanju,
Of course we will not do what the Novak fans did when he beat Rafa. We don’t do that.
People like that dreadful Wog Boy on tennis-x are so disgusting. No way would we ever be like him or the other nasty Novak fans,
I saw that no one picked Meddy. I don’t make predictions anymore, but I though the only one with a chance was Meddy. I did not think Zverev could beat Novak. But I knew it would be difficult. It turned out not to be difficult. I think there was a ton of pressure on Novak.
Not quite true re the analysts. Gill Gross (did radio commentary at the USO this tournament and does some excellent work on YouTube with his Monday Match Analysis) switched from picking Djoker pre-tournament to Meddy. He couldn’t really say why, maybe just a hunch.
Re “the last match” thing, very few people actually play all that well in their last match, do they? Pete Sampras aside.
I found one prediction in favor of Med, at Bleacher Report. I’m not sure if anyone else did.
StatsZone picked Medvedev as well. They saw it coming as good as anyone.
The pressure of winning that match with Laver watching was something very few players have ever had to cope with…
I was trying to remember the last time a Russian man (or woman) won the US Open
off top of my head ,Safin but my memories fading…
Safin won the 2000 US Open.
Thats right. He would have beaten anyone that day.
I thought that Safin would be the next great player. For a while I thought he would be my favorite. He really had it all. But emotionally and mentally he was lacking. He would let his emotions get the better of him.
I remember the tennis channel replaying a match at the USO with Fed and Safin. It wasn’t a final. I think it was a semifinal. It was in the early 2000’s. It was an amazing match. You could see that Fed was going to be the next great player. But in that match Safin just fought to the end and produced some of his best tennis. I was reminded again watching it years later, of his considerable talent. Too bad he only won two slams in his career.
I think it was 2005 ao sf
It was 2005, with Fed having beaten him the year before in the final .Then Safin beat Hewitt in the final . I was glad, he was far more talented than most people .
Sanju,
Yes. Thanks for the info. Safin got the better of Fed in that one.
Congrats to you on bracket win. Quit your job and take up gambling…;) And a smaller pat on the back to A.M. and me 😉
Ta,most of us did in fact pick Meddy.
In the women’s it was better to forget all rational picks
Quit my job? I may have to if I don’t start concentrating more on it not tennis🙃
Yeah!..Commiserations to RC & Big Al for Novak’s loss..
But congrats to Big Al for smashing both brackets!(again!)..Splendid!😁🙉👍
Race u to AO22 M,RC,Big Al!🏃♀️🚣♀️🏇🚴♀️👋…wooohooo!!
Ta, MA, and I smash a racquet or two as well 😉
Hehehe…understand perfectly Big Al!😁
Actually I had Medvedev in 3 but I was on vacation so I only shared that with my friends. So, believe it or not 🙂
Djokovic lost too many sets along the way and the SF must have been exhausting. He played way too many matches for his age this summer, which drained him of mental energy. He was totally spent at the Olympics and the time since then was too short for him to recover sufficiently. On the other hand, Medvedev was much fresher and obviously much younger.
For some reason, USO is arguably Novak’s worst HC event and one of the best for the Russian. It was not Medvedev’s first final here, so I was expecting him to be much more consistent than last time. Note that Daniil was not far from winning his first USO final as well; Nadal had to produce something special to bag the last set. I think that Rafa’s net play ultimately derailed Medvedev 2 years ago.
The Serb doesn’t have as many playing options as Nadal and Federer; he plays more to the FH or to the BH and varies the frequency of drop shots, but that’s about it. Don’t get me wrong, he has a very efficient game but not that varied. It’s hard for Novak to hurt the Russian with his “weapons” on Arthur Ashe, so he depended on his opponent missing often enough.
Finally, the pressure was much much higher on Djokovic. He knows that winning RG is a very tall order and that he most likely won his last one this year. He’s not getting any younger and he desperately wanted this calendar Grand Slam to back his GOAT claim.
I also suspect that playing with the crowd on his side for a change had an adverse effect on Novak. The fear of disappointing is probably not something that he’s used to experience. Actually both finalists play the villain better than the hero so this was definitely a big advantage for the Russian.
We have an interesting 2022 ahead of us. Will Rafa recover his foot soon enough? Hopefully compared to 2005 there are better solutions for his problem now. Will Federer ever recover from his knee issues? Will Murray get close enough to his pre-injury level? Will Djokovic be able to stay motivated and win more Slams?
I am not convinced that Djokovic is the most likely of the “big three” to win more Slams. His HC reign is coming to an end as there are more and more players which can beat him on their day. On clay there’s still Nadal and Thiem will presumably return at some point. So in the foreseeable future it’s probably grass for Novak and clay for Rafa and maybe a few inspired AO/USO runs from both of them.
nice pick. And I had Raducanu winning it all before the tournament started. But my WiFi went out so I couldn’t post it!
Well, now I almost regret that I did not post a true “pick” – I might have been more cautious here and just pick Medvedev. I am fully aware that it is a bit awkward to come with a prediction after the match.
This USO in particular was not that interesting to me (plus I was on vacation for the entire period). All that hype around Novak making the calendar Grand Slam kind of ruined it for me so I mostly watched the results.
So I was not aware that almost everybody picked Djokovic to win the final – I might have made an effort to post a counter opinion (although on Saturday I was packing and on Sunday I was on the road for 12 hours). I was mostly curious yesterday to see what you guys picked and I was actually quite surprised that nobody had Med winning. This is the reason why I shared my thoughts on the final.
In any case, many factors were in Medvedev’s favour and the arguments for Djokovic were like “cannot afford to lose”. Sure, Novak was super motivated (which could have actually worked against him), but in this sport it’s not just about you, it’s also about your opponent, and this match was not necessarily on his racquet.
Regarding the women’s tournament, when was the last time anyone here predicted the correct winner before a GS started?
I’ve been saying this for ages in this forum. Djokovic’s desire to win isn’t the only variable in the equation. You sound like you’re trolling; these are all statements I’ve made numerous times in this forum.
And if you go back and read previous threads, you’ll see I tipped Djokovic to not win the USO before and after the Olympics, then tipped Zverev or Medvedev at the start of the USO and then presented a case for why Medvedev could win. I doubt there was any confusion as to which direction I was leaning.
Again, you sound like you’re trolling.
There was 2 others in this forum that tipped Medvedev as well which was clear as day to everyone (Scoot posted it twice). This is further evidence of you’re trolling.
Don’t be fooled by a Cristian name. No pun intended 😉
Nice analysis as well dude. It’s amazing how much of your original content we agree on. You took the words right out my mouth, so to speak.
“It’s hard for Novak to hurt the Russian with his “weapons” on Arthur Ashe, so he depended on his opponent missing often enough.”
This, I completely agree with; Djokovic’s formula relies mostly on his opponents missing. There’s nothing wrong with that but I personally have a bias towards players that go after their shots a bit more. Nadal and Federer were both great shot makers.
BTW, even if Djokovuc won the calendar Grand slam I don’t think it makes any difference to his first claim. People that understand the game know there isn’t an outright GOAT. It’s all relative and circumstantial.
Damn, spell check. “GOAT claim”