U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

When the U.S. Open draw revealed itself almost exactly two weeks ago, it had the cruel idea to pit Rafael Nadal against Roger Federer in the semifinals instead of the final. Juan Martin Del Potro had other ideas.

It will be Nadal against Del Potro, instead, after the Argentine upset Federer 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(8), 6-4 during quarterfinal action on Wednesday night. The two former champions of this event will be facing each other for the 14th time in their careers on Friday when they battle for a place in the title match. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 8-5, but Del Potro is 5-4 against the current world No. 1 on hard courts.

They have squared off only once since the end of 2013, with Del Potro prevailing 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(5) in the semifinals of the 2016 Rio Olympics on his way to the silver medal. Perhaps their most memorable–but also more in infamous than famous–encounter came at the same stage of this same tournament in 2009, when Del Potro destroyed Nadal 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 and then stunned Federer in five sets to capture his first and only Grand Slam title.

Given the circumstances, a return trip to the U.S. Open final would be even more improbable–and not just because Del Potro no longer has the same backhand he once wielded prior to multiple left-wrist surgeries. The world No. 28 was all but left for dead earlier this fortnight when an illness plagued him in his fourth-rounder against Dominic Thiem and led to losses of 6-1 and 6-2 in the first two sets. Later saying that he refused to retire only because he did not want to disappoint his throng of supporters, Del Potro found another gear and eventually triumphed 1-6, 2-6, 6-1, 7-6(1), 6-4 in hard-to-believe fashion.

The former world No. 4 preceded that result with routine defeats of Henri Laaksonen, Adrian Menendez-Maceiras, and Roberto Bautista and followed it up by ousting Federer in an entertaining but not exactly a classic four-setter. Del Potro fought off four set points in the third-set tiebreaker against Federer, eventually took it 10-8, and promptly took complete control in the fourth.

Nadal’s trouble at this event came in rounds two and three, when he trailed Taro Daniel by a set and a break and Leonardo Mayer by a set and 15-40 early in the second. The top-seeded Spaniard eventually won both of those contests in four. He also coasted past Dusan Lajovic, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Andrey Rublev while saving six of his best sets for last–hammering Dolgopolov 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 and Rublev 6-1, 6-2, 6-2.

“He’s the No. 1 player of the world and he’s playing so confident this tournament,” Del Potro assessed. “He’s a lefty, so he has (a) chance to find easily my backhand. So I don’t know what’s gonna be my strategy for that match. But for sure I will try to make winners with my forehands and don’t run too much, because my legs are tired. (It) will be (an) interesting match to play.”

“When he’s playing well, it’s difficult to stop him,” Nadal said of Del Potro. “Probably the forehand is maybe the fastest on the tour. If he [is serving] well and [hitting] well his forehand, he’s a player that [has] the chance to win against, of course, everybody. I have to play my best tennis. I need to be very focused with my serve and play aggressive, because if you let him play from good positions with his forehand, you are dead.

“I need to play against his backhand, and then open the court, no?”

Yes, that is correct. Del Potro’s backhand came up big at crucial moments against Federer, but it will be under attack on a consistent basis from Nadal’s heavy topspin. The underdog will have no choice but to come over it with two hands more often than not. It’s a shot that can still be effective but is prone to break down when it comes to this post-surgery, not-as-healthy version of Del Potro. And when the deuce court is open, perhaps no one in the sport–except maybe Del Potro, himself–has a better inside-out forehand than Nadal.

This has been an energy-sapping fortnight both physically and emotionally for Del Potro, so the end may be near.

Pick: Nadal in 4

[polldaddy poll=9824839]

36 Comments on U.S. Open SF preview and prediction: Nadal vs. Del Potro

  1. Not sure if Delpo was playing possum a bit at the end of the set, or if he’s finally out of gas. If latter, then this won’t last much longer.

  2. LOOK at those returns from Rafa! he is well inside the baseline to return second serves. THIS is what he was practicing earlier today!

    13 winners, 1 UE! , only 2 points lost on serve!!

    One of the best hard court sets of the year in my view.

    Anyway, Rafa must stay alert and try to maintain this intensity. It will be really tough to sustain this level but if he stays even close, he will be able to win.

    Delpo will try to relax and hit bigger and better now. Rafa must be careful.

    • Rafa played great, but Delpo made it a bit easy for him. He has stopped hitting his FH with pace; shanked a few and maybe lost confidence. This first serving game is key for Juan.

  3. You guys will be disappointed in the 5th set.

    I will talk to you guys later, i have a lot to do tomorrow so enjoy the match and watch how Delpo wins in the 5th set.

    Goodluck Juan Martin Del Potro!
    I really wish U the best, plzzz defeat R. Nadal in 5 not 4.

    • MA,

      I am here watching! I was so tense in that first set that I didn’t want to even post! Then I have just been replaying Rafa’s great shots! I am loving seeing Rafa playing like this!

      • Hey Nny!!…Yeah!we’re all tensed too in the 1st set..but hey hey hey!..look at what your darling’s doing now Nny!!…I don’t think he will back down from this NNy..he’s already see the finish line…and u know what?I think he wants to give something special to his Uncle Toni,knowing this is the last time they’ll be together…just like at the FO…

  4. This is FAR better than the Rafa of AO. Not sure what has gotten into him. Delpo must hope his level falls or this will be over real quick.

    Nobody can stop this version of Rafael Nadal in my opinion.

  5. Awesome from Rafa to break. On fire, but I think Delpo has dropped a couple levels. The zip on his serve and FH has gone away. He has to stay aggressive to have a chance here.

  6. Once again Thank u God for amazing perfomance from rafa so far…Thank u for giving him confidence and self belief…This positivity that make it everything happen so brilliantly tonight..

  7. From returning serve from close to the line judges to doing it from inside the baseline. Delpo getting COMPLETELY different looks. Rafa THUMPING returns. Set 1 , delpo was getting sitters !

    Delpo looks a bit resigned now.

    However, I’ve seen Delpo literally rise from the dead many times in the past so Rafa must keep this intensity up!

  8. Hey did Delpo got injured or something in set 2.
    Missed the 2nd set due to some work after watching the 1st and watching here in the 3rd Delpo seems to have lost his pace on his serve, his BH, his FH. I mean what went wrong. Rafa is still playing at almost the same level as in set 1 apart from changing a bit of dynamic on the ad court.

    Quite perplexing to me. Hope that Delpo is alright. Can’t see him sustaining anymore physical issues.

    • Are you kidding with this? Maybe you should actually watch that second set and see Rafa take Delpo apart! Rafa playing at the same level? Like standing on or inside the baseline to return serve? Like hitting his DTL forehand with perfect precision?

      If Delpo is tired, then it’s because of Rafa making him move and wearing him down!

      • Nny..i think Delpo more drained mentally than physically..he’s already admit that playing rafa is not easy…that’s already put a pressure on himself i believe..

      • Like I said didn’t get to see the 2nd hence perplexed. Especially by that scoreline of 6-0. Service games is mostly in servers hands no. So losing 3 on the trot made me think that somethink wrong might have happened to Delpo that really affected his service games. That’s why came here to ask.

  9. Looked at the stats just now, Delpo’s 1st serve % dropped down to 50%. Seems like that coupled with Rafa’s more aggressive approach did Delpo in.

  10. Not the first time Rafa is hitting more forehand winners than Delpo. I remember their wimbledon 2011 match and Rafa ended up with considerably more forehand winners.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.