When the U.S. Open draw revealed itself almost exactly two weeks ago, it had the cruel idea to pit Rafael Nadal against Roger Federer in the semifinals instead of the final. Juan Martin Del Potro had other ideas.
It will be Nadal against Del Potro, instead, after the Argentine upset Federer 7-5, 3-6, 7-6(8), 6-4 during quarterfinal action on Wednesday night. The two former champions of this event will be facing each other for the 14th time in their careers on Friday when they battle for a place in the title match. Nadal leads the head-to-head series 8-5, but Del Potro is 5-4 against the current world No. 1 on hard courts.
They have squared off only once since the end of 2013, with Del Potro prevailing 5-7, 6-4, 7-6(5) in the semifinals of the 2016 Rio Olympics on his way to the silver medal. Perhaps their most memorable–but also more in infamous than famous–encounter came at the same stage of this same tournament in 2009, when Del Potro destroyed Nadal 6-2, 6-2, 6-2 and then stunned Federer in five sets to capture his first and only Grand Slam title.
Given the circumstances, a return trip to the U.S. Open final would be even more improbable–and not just because Del Potro no longer has the same backhand he once wielded prior to multiple left-wrist surgeries. The world No. 28 was all but left for dead earlier this fortnight when an illness plagued him in his fourth-rounder against Dominic Thiem and led to losses of 6-1 and 6-2 in the first two sets. Later saying that he refused to retire only because he did not want to disappoint his throng of supporters, Del Potro found another gear and eventually triumphed 1-6, 2-6, 6-1, 7-6(1), 6-4 in hard-to-believe fashion.
The former world No. 4 preceded that result with routine defeats of Henri Laaksonen, Adrian Menendez-Maceiras, and Roberto Bautista and followed it up by ousting Federer in an entertaining but not exactly a classic four-setter. Del Potro fought off four set points in the third-set tiebreaker against Federer, eventually took it 10-8, and promptly took complete control in the fourth.
Nadal’s trouble at this event came in rounds two and three, when he trailed Taro Daniel by a set and a break and Leonardo Mayer by a set and 15-40 early in the second. The top-seeded Spaniard eventually won both of those contests in four. He also coasted past Dusan Lajovic, Alexandr Dolgopolov, and Andrey Rublev while saving six of his best sets for last–hammering Dolgopolov 6-2, 6-4, 6-1 and Rublev 6-1, 6-2, 6-2.
“He’s the No. 1 player of the world and he’s playing so confident this tournament,” Del Potro assessed. “He’s a lefty, so he has (a) chance to find easily my backhand. So I don’t know what’s gonna be my strategy for that match. But for sure I will try to make winners with my forehands and don’t run too much, because my legs are tired. (It) will be (an) interesting match to play.”
“When he’s playing well, it’s difficult to stop him,” Nadal said of Del Potro. “Probably the forehand is maybe the fastest on the tour. If he [is serving] well and [hitting] well his forehand, he’s a player that [has] the chance to win against, of course, everybody. I have to play my best tennis. I need to be very focused with my serve and play aggressive, because if you let him play from good positions with his forehand, you are dead.
“I need to play against his backhand, and then open the court, no?”
Yes, that is correct. Del Potro’s backhand came up big at crucial moments against Federer, but it will be under attack on a consistent basis from Nadal’s heavy topspin. The underdog will have no choice but to come over it with two hands more often than not. It’s a shot that can still be effective but is prone to break down when it comes to this post-surgery, not-as-healthy version of Del Potro. And when the deuce court is open, perhaps no one in the sport–except maybe Del Potro, himself–has a better inside-out forehand than Nadal.
This has been an energy-sapping fortnight both physically and emotionally for Del Potro, so the end may be near.
Pick: Nadal in 4
[polldaddy poll=9824839]
While Roger’s presser was very honest I don’t think he mellowed, lol! It’s a skilful mind game IMO, which signals Delpo: “you can do it”, and Roger also says to Rafa: “beware of Delpo!”
Rafa’s winning this one. Someone mentioned this here on tenngrand (may be Atul ) that Delpo’s serve won’t as effective because it will be an outdoor match. This is important! It becomes even more relevant when you look at Delpo’s ball toss. He has a high ball toss and Aurthur Ashe stadium can complicate things further regarding the wind. Delpo will still serve big and win free points but it won’t as effective.
Rafa will target Delpo’s backhand and look to step in to create opportunities for his forehand DTL. He will be better than Federer in spreading the court and moving Delpo around.
DON’T BUY into those ‘delpo will be really tired’ theories! Delpo has huge energy reserves and he will be there big time! He played 3 hours with DJokovic in Indian Wells 2013 and everyone thought he would be a spent force for the final against Rafa. He came out firing and was up a set and a break before Rafa staged a comeback! He also did the same in the Olympics final.
Delpo will obviously look to use his forehand to keep points short. His backhand slice will NOT be as much of a neutraliser against Rafa though. Rafa will use those slices to work his way into the rallies and drain Delpo.
I expect Rafa to win in 4 sets.
First set will be key for Rafa. If he wins it its gone for Delpo. If he loses it, it will be tough night for Rafa. I just hope Rafa serves well and surprises DelPo by charging to net with wide serve on Ad Court often enough just to keep him honest
Anncone has predicted Rafa win USO.
Because he is winning it. No question. He would never let this good of an opportunity slip. I just can’t imagine it. There were question marks around Federer through much of the tournament. Rafa is fine, he just started a little slowly in his first few matches. Especially since this is a slow hard court, best of five, open roof. This is Rafa’s title. And he better freakin’ take it haha!
All this extra favoritism is freaking me and making me nervous
Delpo had a whopping 43% unreturned first serves against Fed! Not gonna happen today.
Great post Kevin, thats why ive never really been all that concerned with all things GOAT, reason being theres too many different caveats to the topic, i love the idea that theres a number of all time greats instead, with different areas of greatness in the sport ….
Thanks Alison. It just seems so absurd to me to be able to declare one of those guys to be definitively better than the other two, all around. There are so many variables- court surface, indoor/outdoor, competition level, game style, evolution of the game, majors won, masters won, overall titles won, consistency, ranking stuff, and on and on and on. It just frustrates me when people just look at it so narrowly, like “Roger has the most titles, so he’s the goat!” or “Rafa has dominated the overall head to head with Roger, so that means he’s the goat!” Or “Novak has a winning overall h2h against both Fed AND Rafa, so he has to be the goat!” To me, those are the arguments of people who really don’t have a true appreciation for the sport, but just NEED their guy to be considered the best, no matter what. Because there are endless variables and arguments that people use for why one of them is “better” than the other two, why not just accept that it’s so close that it’s truly a matter of who you like better, and then just appreciate and marvel at how amazing the three of them are in their own unique way? But again, because these guys are so passionately loved, it makes sense that a lot of people just cannot accept that their guy can’t be objectively the best ever. It’s a reality that is sad for me, but just the way it is…
Oh, btw, Rafa in 4, maybe even straights… Vamos Rafa and Del Po!
Great post, Kevin, thanks. I am a bit different, I think. Never bought into the GOAT thing. Well, Rafa is probably the GOAT on clay. Roger, certainly at the current Wimbledon (which is quite different from Wimbledon 12 years and more ago, I’m told). At his best Djokovic might well be better than either on hard court. What I do know is when they are playing their best against each other they produce epic tennis and you never really know who’s going to win. Also tennis players are judged over the length of their careers, and none of these guys is done yet.
Keep your mind sharp and focused, remain confident, be strong and show your warrior spirit, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJOf0U-XUAA3rZY.jpg
A lot of “experts” who have picked Delpo to win against Rafa are picking him to win in 5. I don’t get that, if he is not as fit as would like to be. In his post Fed match interview, Delpo expressed xo corns about his legs. If he has doubts about his legs he will want to finish the match quicker so I do not see how he gets to 5.
If one is picking Delpo, makes more sense to me to say he wins in 3 or 4 at worst……..
“Expressed concerns”
I agree with you, RIBT. Sure, Del Po has shown great toughness in the last couple years in long, epic matches. Not today, though, imo. Not after all he’s been through this tournament. Not against Rafa. If he were to pull off a win, he would have to just blow Rafa off the court in no more than 4 sets. I just don’t see that happening, though. I think Rafa is destined to win this tournament. Sorry if that freaks out the big-time Rafa fans on here, but that’s just how I feel! The stars could not have aligned any better for him to get another US Open title, and I just don’t see him passing up that opportunity. If he’s going to lose, someone is going to have to redline their game and take the racquet out of his hands. He will not lose as long as he’s in control. And I can’t imagine him not being in control at this point in this tournament.
This match will end in 4 or 5 sets, R. Nadal might win but i believe Juan Martin Del Potro will be the victor.
Over games.
Over 3.5 sets, likely in 5 sets.
Del Potro to win.
If R. Nadal wins he deserves the trophy.
Enjoy the match ok!
R. Nadal vs Juan Martin del Potro
Cant tell which player you want to win. lmao
He wants Delpo to win.
I want Juan Martin Del Potro to win but i placed some bets and when i bet i play multiple slips targeting a higher odd that covers my total stake plus profits, so when i bet i stick with the matches i trust and matches that are hard to predict i play different options and in my last slip(4th slip or 5th) i contradict my original pick because that’s the best way to bet.
E.g if you want to win 6000 or 600 everyone has a number maybe 6 million.
Instead of using 1000 or 100 to aim for 6 odds in 1 slip, i use 4000 or 400 sometimes 4 million depending on your currency to aim for 10 odds playing 4 different slips.
I don’t contradict my picks in my 1st, 2nd or 3rd slip but in my 4th or 5th slip i play the opposite of a match that is hard to predict.
For example Kevin Anderson vs Pablo Carreno.
1) I knew the match won’t end in 3 sets so i went with the over 3.5 sets.
2) Over games.
3) I picked Pablo to win a set.
4) I picked Pablo Carreno to win.
5) Then in my 5th slip i contradicted my main pick by picking K. Anderson to win just in case P. Carreno loses.
I placed this bet with other matches, some are successful, some haven’t played yet, the will play soon and 1 or 2 matches will play tomorrow.
I hope this was helpful.
Vamos Del Potro!
It’s nice and sunny in NY, no wind! Hope it stays that way for the other semi! The forecast looks good!
Vamos Rafa!
Ricky pretty much got the first semifinal prediction right. Hope he gets the second one right as well!
Go Rafa!!!
Very funny!
Del Potro will win in 4 or 5 sets, if Rafito wins i still win but i want Juan Martin Del potro to win.
If Rafans beg me & apologize for everything they have done to me then i will change my mind.
I used to like Rafito a lot but my likeness 4 him has reduced because of you guys.
If R. Nadal wins the trophy(he won’t) all is good, nothing will change but you guy’s need to apologize me ASAP please do it.
I think JM del Potro might give Rafael ‘Rafa’ Nadal a match.
If R. Nadal wins(he won’t win) but if he wins, i want him to win in 5th set so that i can enjoy the match.
If Del Potro wins i hope he wins in the 4th or 3rd set, i don’t think Del Potro can win in 3 sets but i hope he wins no matter what, if he wants to win in the 10th set let him win, as long as wins he can lose the final if he wants but plzzz i am begging you defeat R. Nadal, his fans made me cry and the need 2 apologize.
deleted
NEED to apologize? A bit conceited of you to say that.
You’re not better than everyone else. Quit acting all high and mighty, and get of your pedestal.
Furthermore, what else did you expect after you repeatedly told people Rafa doesn’t even stand a chance against Federer, who couldn’t be stopped in winning this year’s US Open, and would crush Nadal in 3 sets.
If your mind on rooting for Rafa can be swayed by something so trivial, you really shouldn’t be a fan of Rafa in the first place, and should just stick to Federer.
You don’t deserve an apology, so I’m definitely not giving you one.
You don’t even know when someone is joking wow! My Goodness!
Here i am thinking that i am discussing with someone who understands.
Please lighten up and laugh a little ok, stop acting like…
I was joking, i know you guys won’t apologize just playing b4 the match starts.
LOL I can’t really tell when you’re joking and when you’re not, your comments always seem really extreme so haha my bad XD.
That’s Ok! But why are Rafans not friendly people?
And what does xd mean?
Hmmmm this will be difficult to Rafa. Love both players haha, but have to cheer for Rafa for this one. Even if Rafa loses, he will still be No.1 so that’s a relief!
Both players have been looking good, here’s to a good match between them!
azurite.
Just try to ignore Stanley. He’s instigating and being a troll.
Let’s enjoy the match!
deleted
Please win it this match in 3 rafa just so u can shut Stanley one more time…He’s still not learned his lessons…
Sigh, He’s probably just really frustrated/mad his favorite player Federer didn’t win like he predicted and so wants Rafa to lose, hence being rude to us.
Yeah azurite!…We all know what Stanley’s doing…the thing is..he shouldn’t whined if some of us ‘give’ back to him some…give an honest opinion,that’s okay..but if you’re just trolling & baiting…then u just have to accept the consequences after that…
@Mira Andi
Please stop mentioning my name, i mean it. Please stop!
@Mira
Please be careful! I am begging U.
deleted
Ohohohohohoho!….rafa in black!..this is the 1st time he wear black in this tourney right?In 2013 his night gear also black/grey…hope this time it will bring Rafa & us the same luck…Please God!let rafa win!!
2nd time, he wore it against Taro Daniel as well.
Vamos Juan Martin Del Potro!
Lets ball!
Oh really azurite?Hehe..i didn’t see that match…well,really really hope the luck of 2010,2013 will appear once again tonight & hopefully in final…C’mon Rafa!!Let’s do this!!
Haha this is really a tough one…I’m actually quite nervous that Rafa can lose…but Rafa is much better than he was post 2015 and I believe he has a good shot.
You should be nervous, Rafito will definitely lose in 4 or 5 sets.
Del Potro will destroy him.
hmm the Delpo forehand is just scary.
Nadal starts off with a hold, but it definitely wasn’t as easy as I would’ve liked.
Nadal missing first serves.
Really really well constructed point from Nadal at 15-0
This match will be decided in the 5th set.
Del Potro will win and you guys will some hug & kisses especially the ladies, i just want you to know that i am here 4 U always.
Hmm I agree that It’ll be close, but will delpo have enough stamina to last so long?
*sigh* break point already, Nadal needs to start hitting some 1st serves in and cut down UFE.
Rafa not serving well today at all. Groundstrokes not bad.
R. Nadal first serve missing too much. Delpo already pressuring.
R. Nadal is struggling and might lose in 3 sets if he is not careful.
Please lose in the 5th set, i want to enjoy this match.
He’s definitely struggling. This is too difficult to make any predictions yet imo.
Nadal is still playing well though. I think right now, the two are playing at an incredibly high level.
deleted