U.S. Open SF preview and pick: Djokovic vs. Wawrinka

Stanislas Wawrinka denied an expected U.S. Open semifinal showdown between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. Wawrinka’s reward is a Saturday meeting with the world No. 1.

Novak Djokovic and Stanislas Wawrinka will be squaring off for the 15th time in their careers at the ATP level when they collide in the semifinals of the U.S. Open on Saturday afternoon.

Djokovic is dominating the head-to-head series 12-2, including 7-1 on hard courts. The Serb has defeated Wawrinka on 11 consecutive occasions dating back to the fall of 2007. Their most recent encounter was the best of all–a 1-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7(5), 12-10 thriller won by Djokovic in the fourth round of this season’s Australian Open. They also faced each other in the fourth round of last year’s U.S. Open, with Djokovic cruising 6-4, 6-1, 3-1 before Wawrinka retired.

Both players have been in outstanding form this fortnight. Djokovic rolled through each of his first four matches in straight sets (over Ricardas Berankis, Benjamin Becker, Joao Sousa, and Marcel Granollers) before beating Mikhail Youzhny in four on Thursday night. Wawrinka has dismissed Radek Stepanek, Ivo Karlovic, Marcos Baghdatis, Tomas Berdych, and Andy Murray while losing sets only to Baghdatis and Berdych.

Djokovic is 49-8 for his 2013 campaign, which includes another Australian Open title and a runner-up showing at Wimbledon. The world No. 1’s summer, however, has been marred by losses to Rafael Nadal in the Montreal semis and to John Isner in the Cincinnati quarters. Wawrinka boasts a 41-15 record for the year, which is highlighted by a quarterfinal at Roland Garros and now a semifinal in New York. The 10th-ranked Swiss, though, had been a dreadful 2-4 since the start of Wimbledon prior to his arrival at the U.S. Open.

Although this is a lopsided matchup on paper according to both the rankings and their past history, Wawrinka’s performances against Berdych and Murray will throw some doubt into the equation. Djokovic is playing well, but he is not as dominant right now as, say, either the current Nadal or the Djokovic of 2011. Wawrinka should put up a serious fight, but Djokovic is vastly more experienced in the final weekend of slams and that will likely help see him through to the title match.

Pick: Djokovic in 4

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