U.S. Open SF preview and pick: Nadal vs. Gasquet

Rafael Nadal is two wins away from a second U.S. Open title and a fourth straight hard-court triumph in 2013. Standing in his way on semifinal Saturday is Richard Gasquet.

Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet will be doing battle for the 11th time in their careers at the ATP level when they clash in the semifinals of the U.S. Open on Saturday afternoon.

Nadal is a perfect 10-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series, including 4-0 on hard courts. Their last hard-court encounter came four years ago in the first round of this same event, with Gasquet just returning from suspension and going down 6-2, 6-2, 6-3. They most recently faced each other in a clay-court Davis Cup rubber in 2011, a meeting that went Nadal’s way 6-3, 6-0, 6-1 in front of a Spanish crowd. The world No. 2 has won 14 consecutive sets against Gasquet dating back to their second frame at the 2008 Toronto Masters.

The good news for Gasquet is that the state of his game–and his mentality–cannot be more different from when he last ran into Nadal in New York. This time around he is in the midst of a brilliant season for which he owns a 39-14 record. The ninth-ranked Frenchman made a quarterfinal run this summer in Montreal and he booked his place in the U.S. Open semifinals with wins over Michael Russell, Stephane Robert, Dmitry Tursunov, Milos Raonic, and David Ferrer. Gasquet needed five sets to get past both Raonic and Ferrer.

Of course, the bad news for Gasquet is not limited to the fact that he has played 10 sets in his last two matches. Even worse for the underdog is that Nadal is completely on fire at the moment. The 2010 U.S. Open champion is 58-3 for the season and undefeated on hard courts–with Indian Wells, Montreal, and Cincinnati among his nine titles. So far this fortnight Nadal has taken out Ryan Harrison, Rogerio Dutra Silva, Ivan Dodig, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Tommy Robredo–dropping only the first set to Kohlschreiber along the way.

Even with one of the best one-handed backhands in the game, Gasquet’s favorite shot is not going to be able to withstand his opponent’s heavy topspin–especially not when weary legs will sometimes prevent him from being in correct positions. All signs point to another rout for Nadal.

Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 5-7 games

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