Rafael Nadal had no trouble in his U.S. Open first-rounder and he will hope to make similar work of Andreas Seppi on Wednesday. What is likely to be a more entertaining contest will pit Benoit Paire against Marcos Baghdatis.
(4) Rafael Nadal vs. Andreas Seppi
Nadal and Seppi will be squaring off for the ninth time in their careers and for the second time this summer when they meet again in round two of the U.S. Open on Wednesday. The head-to-head series stands at 7-1 in favor of Nadal, who most recently took care of Seppi 6-3, 6-3 at the Rio Olympics. That result was nothing out of the ordinary for the Spaniard, who has won 10 consecutive sets at Seppi’s expense–eight of them no more competitive than 6-3. Nadal’s 10-set streak started after the Italian scored his lone victory via a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 decision eight years ago on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam.
The world No. 5 parlayed his recent win over Seppi into a fourth-place showing at the Olympics, where he also captured the doubles gold medal with Marc Lopez. Nadal was clearly too fatigued to do anything of note in Cincinnati, but he got back in business by hammering Denis Istomin 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 on Monday afternoon in New York. That looks like bad news for Seppi, who advanced with a 6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 defeat of Stephane Robert. The 32nd-ranked Italian has plunged to No. 87 in the world and he will continue to be saddled with a losing record in 2016 (currently 18-19) if he falls to Nadal. There is no reason to expect anything different from what has transpired between these two veterans over the course of their last five matchups.
Pick: Nadal in 3 losing 8-10 games
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(32) Benoit Paire vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Nothing screams five-setter quite like Paire playing an early-round match at the U.S. Open. The 34th-ranked Frenchman contested the sixth first-round match of his career at this tournament on Monday and it resulted in his fifth five-setter, as he outlasted a cramping Dusan Lajovic 6-2, 2-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-1. The only occasion on which Paire did not go to a final set in the opening round was in 2012, but he promptly went five with Philipp Kohlschreiber (lost 6-7(4), 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 7-6(4)) two days after beating Grigor Dimitrov in four. The win over Lajovic was much needed for the 32nd seed, who is just 21-24 on the year and had been 1-4 in his last five matches prior to arriving in New York.
Up next for Paire on Wednesday in what should be an entertaining showdown against Baghdatis. The head-to-head series stands at 2-1 in favor of Paire, who prevailed at the 2013 French Open and two years later in Tokyo following a three-set win for Baghdatis at the 2013 Rotterdam tournament. Baghdatis booked his spot in this contest by getting a third-set retirement from Facundo Bagnis, although the Cypriot was well on his way to victory leading 6-4, 6-2, 1-1. He is 21-17 for his 2016 campaign and has reached at least the third round in three of his last four events. The trend should continue for Baghdatis against an opponent who is short on confidence and coming off a tough five-setter.
Pick: Baghdatis in 5
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Really sloppy game from both! What’s Rafa doing? So many chances and still couldnt close the set. I hope he doest regret it later, expending unnecessary energy.
Rafa hit an insane angled volley to win the first set.
Luckystar, we have to allow for the fact that Seppi is not a brick wall and he does return a lot of balls.
#ExtraGluten
#Vamos!!!
I don’t want Rafa to have a letdown after winning 6-0.
Two break points for Seppi.
30-40 Rafa still facing break point.
Nice one two punch with a good serve and a forehand winner from Rafa to make it deuce.
Game point Rafa.
Rafa comes back from 0-40 to hold serve.
They are showing Rafa’s sectio of the draw now. It’s really opened up with Raonic out. Now he could face Monfils in the quarterfinals or almagro or baggy or Harrison.
Rafa has Kyznetsov next. Then it’s either Pouille or RBA.
Another DTL forehand winner from Rafa!
Hope it’s Monfils or Harrison.
Nadal really pulverizing the ball!!
Its a matter of time…..that Rafa is going to lose serve, serving so poorly his first serves.
Seppi gets the break. Rafa needs stay focused.
Okay, rafa breaks back with another forehand winner.
Roof closing is a bad omen for Rafa.
Memories of Rosol.
#BeetweenTheEars
#MentalProblema
Different scenario – that Rosol match was a tight match, this isnt.
Is this the first time the roof is closed for a proper match here at the USO? So Rafa is the first to practise under closed roof and first (with Seppi) to play under closed roof!
And the first to win a game under the closed roof.
No such thing as a proper match under a closed roof.
#Oxymoron
What are you talking about? Proper means not a practice match but one that counts, ie a proper tour level match. Dont have to act smart with word like #oxymoron. You know hawkeye, sometimes you behave rather rude.
Closing the roof at Wimbledon is quite a performance. It takes about 45 minutes for play to restart.
Rafa too tight and passive this set. Waiting for errors instead of aggressive.
Nice hitting from both in that 30 shot? rally.
Rafa getting the win in 3 2 1… wait. He breaks?
Seppi getting 4 games. Few glimpses of the old Seppi – the Seppi that beat RF.
This is just Rafa playing tight.
I’d like to see his error count vs the first set.
This match is like Rosol and Fogna had a love child.
What a choke by Rafa. It was nicer while it lasted.
#RafaVsRafa
#MentalProblema
He always has this problem when serving for the set or match. The current Rafa is very far from that vintage Rafa; we have to expect this level of play from Rafa from now on. He has to work very hard to win.
I appreciate Rafa. Rafa appreciation club.
I dont understand Rafa’s mentality – why must he wait till he faces BP then he serves better or serves an ace. Why cant he just concentrate a bit more while serving to get a good serve to win cheap points? He’s not going to last if he continues to play 20-30 shots rallies all the time.
Rafa hitting big loopy moon balls now.
Doesn’t bode well for a tiebreak.
Double set point.
Get it done now Rafa!
Rafa played passively needing a Seppi UE to win the second set.
Frustrating to see him lay like this after such a strong start.
It’s the mental inconsistency that has plagued him from going deeper in slams the last two years (besides injury albeit).
If it stops raining, they should reopen the dumb roof.
Tennis should be outdoors.
ESPN just showed a wonderful isolation graphic of Rafa’s shot pattern that perfectly illustrated what vamosrafa has been talking about.
Rafa is setting up the point with the cc forehand and then it opens up the court for him to hit the DTL forehand. It’s working beautifully for him in this match.
I assume that vamosrafa isn’t up to watch this match because of the time, but I think he would be very pleased,
thanks for sharing NNY… good to know they showed the patterns and we have real data now.
Such a far cry from the uso of 2010 when he did not get broken until the qfs. I wonder why he did not even make an effort to work on that serve. Could have saved him a lot of grinding
If somebody sees any data on the RPM Rafa’s getting on his forehand, please do share..
vr,
You are here! Did you see what I wrote in my last post? It was all about Rafa’s shit patterns with the forehand.
I didn’t think you would be up for this. I wasn’t happy to see Rafa get broken while serving for the second set, but at least he regrouped and got it done.
I am not feeling as negative about Rafa’s game as some are. It is true that Seppi doesn’t have the game to trouble Rafa, but I do think Rafa is hitting the forehand better in this match than the first match.
People have to realize that Rafa doesn’t have to be playing his best in the early rounds. He just has to win and get through and work himself into better form.
We also have to realize that Rafa has not played a lot of tennis. He had Rio and then wasn’t able to do anything in Cincy. So he is coming into this slam without much match play, especially in slams,
Oh crap, I meant to say SHOT patterns!
exactly! he’s not played much in the last 4 months and this is a slam! Can’t expect him to blast through the field of a sudden esp when we know he arrived here with confidence/execution issues on his forehand side.
Positives:
-Rafa’s second serve return on the DEUCE court is a weapon now and crucially, he is willing to do it on big points too! This is important because many would say he’s stepped in to hit aggressive returns in the past but those were mostly when he was down 40-0 or 40-15 in games or 40-30 max but now, I am see him do it on opening points, on deuce points and on deciding points too! His forehand return is also a lot more stable now and seems to be more in control of the swing. Let’s see how this weapon holds up against the best of second serves.
-Backhand CC continues to be super solid and he is really confident.
-The second serve is well-guarded and doesn’t look particularly vulnerable at all.
-The forehand was better as compared to the last match and he is trying to be more aggressive.
#Progress
Negatives/Concerns:
-The reason I asked about Rafa’s forehand RPM is that I saw some data and also some analysis from Patrick Mouratoglou. Rafa’s had to change the way he hits his forehand to guard the wrist and he got some ‘bad habits’ doing that. As a result, he only hit 29% of forehands above 3000 RPM in Cincinnati, which is a lot lower than his usual rate which is above 70%!!!
-Rafa’s new serving position is getting more readable perhaps and good returners make life difficult for him esp when his forehand his not firing. The new ad court positioning is good to set up points but that’s too much work. It was good to see J Mac say what I was discussing in round 1 that he can’t possibly go for up-the-middle flat serves in the corner as the serves are always moving in toward the opponents. It is so tough to find that corner. Murray and Djokovic will return so many of them. Rafa changes his positioning a bit throughout the match to experiment so I guess he is trying to find the best balance. The position surely helps his second serve though.
-Rafa not able to hit big forehands as the first shot after serve as often. In Rio he was able to hit big inside-out forehands only 17% of the times and in USO 2013 he did that 33% of the times! This is a combination of his new serving position and his lack of confidence on the forehand wing.
– Rafa’s NOT going to for backhands DTL here like he was in Rio. He was RIPPING them hard and flat in Rio but taking it easy here so far. I hope he doesn’t back away and does it more often as we progress.
-The unforced error count MUST be controlled in the next match now and he needs to ensure the intensity doesn’t waver. Once again that happened in set 2 today. He hit some good inside-out forehands in the second but then dumped the finishing ones into the net when going inside-in and they were FRUSTRATING.
A positive I missed in my last post: He is moving really well and explosively
Practice more Rafa and be confident. Good luck!
vr,
They showed a slo-mo of the topspin on Rafa’s forehand. But they didn’t give any specific data on it.
NNY, I didn’t see the first and and woke up at 5-3 set 2… Even from then on, I was not too focused as I was still in bed and sleepy lol.
I did note a few things and would like to share in the next post.
In this post, I’d say I agree with your assessment of the match! More positives than negatives.
vr,
This is my last post before turning in. I did read your analysis of the positives and negatives. You are very thorough!
I tend to try to not analyze Rafa’s early round matches too much. These two opponents were never going to beat Rafa. So there wasn’t a big challenge. He basically won these matches the way he should have. I do not think he had to work too hard. I also think that every time Rafa is broken when he’s serving for a set, is not necessarily something to get alarmed about. It can happen. Rafa did lose some focus, but got it back in time to close out the second set. I think he realized that Seppi could not challenge him and in a match like that, it’s not unheard of to lose intensity at times.
I am concerned about the loss of RPM’s on his forehand and the other technical things you mentioned. I wonder if it’s lack of confidence in the forehand or limitations from the wrist injury.
My hope is for Rafa to get to the second week. It’s that simple for me. He has not done that so far this year. He’s got a great draw and the opportunity is there. I am concerned about his overall fitness and the lack of match play, particularly in best of five set slam matches. We will have to see how Rafa holds up if he has to play four or five sets.
I think at some point rafa will be tested. Even though his draw is good, someone will give him a tough match. The extra day of rest does help.
I want to be optimistic about Rafa’s chances here, but also realistic. Rafa does have the chance to work his way into good form. Ivthink rafa has the chance to go further here than he has at the other slams.
Rafa’s lack of confidence in his forehand is because of his injury. Everyone except troll team of hawkeye etc knows that Rafa has been making adjustments because of his injuries
#howManyTimes
Rafa is still experimenting with his serving position and forehand. Forehand which was his money shot lets him down at crucial moments.
Anyway it is great to see Rafa playing again with passion. I just hope that his wrist holds up and he wins RG 10 next year. If he wins other slams too that would be a bonus.
who on earth has refuted that he has had to make adjustments to his forehand due to the wrist?? :s
Haven’t seen a single poster here saying that or disagreeing with me when I wrote it!!!
LOL, holdserve speaks for us all.
#NothingNew
#WeAreHoldserve
Mary W (AT 1:02 PM),
Yes, as for the wrist&FH issue, Rafa and Toni have spoken about this.
¤¤ Rafa: “…I’ve got some automatisms for hitting the ball wrong to protect me from the pain & now I have to GET RID OF these bad habits that I’ve acquiring to avoid the pain…”
Tony: ” In Rio he was [hitting the FH] very carefully. He was correcting gestures all the time not to speed up & force all the way, blocking the wrist more often than usual. Ultimately, that’s not the natural shot. When you want to restart again & play as you were doing BEFORE you have to REDO the movements that have been previously corrected to protect the wrist…” ¤¤
(Soure: EL ESPANOL on August 28, 2016; translated from Spanish by genny_ss)
^^^
#NothingNew
#BrokenRecord