U.S. Open QF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Youzhny, Murray vs. Wawrinka

Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray are one round away from a semifinal showdown in New York. They are first set for respective Thursday meetings with Mikhail Youzhny and Stanislas Wawrinka.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (21) Mikhail Youzhny

Djokovic and Youzhny will be facing each other for the ninth time in their careers when they collide in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open on Thursday night. The head-to-head series stands at just 5-3 in Djokovic’s favor, but he has won three of their last four hard-court meetings and Youzhny has never gotten the best of his favored opponent outdoors. They most recently clashed this spring on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo, where Djokovic survived 4-6, 6-1, 6-4. Youzhny’s last victory came at the Rotterdam event in 2010.

Not surprisingly, it has been a different kind of fortnight so far for these two competitors. Djokovic has cruised past Ricardas Berankis, Benjamin Becker, Joao Sousa, and Marcel Granollers while playing just one tiebreaker against Becker. The top-ranked Serb had not been at the top of his game this summer, but he is in ruthless form at the moment. Youzhny needed three hours and 58 minutes to overcome Hewitt in a five-set battle on Tuesday afternoon. The 24th-ranked Russian preceded that win with defeats of Nicolas Mahut, Alexandr Dolgpolov, and Tommy Haas–losing only one set to Haas during that stretch. Youzhny is playing well, but this should be straightforward unless Djokovic delivers a suddenly mediocre performance.

Pick: Djokovic in 3 losing 8-10 games

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(3) Andy Murray vs. (9) Stanislas Wawrinka

Wawrinka and Murray will be squaring off for the 14th time in their careers and for the second time this season. Murray leads the head-to-head series by a modest 8-5 score, but he boasts a more daunting 6-2 mark on hard courts. They have split a pair of U.S. Open showdowns–Murray in straight sets in 2008 and Wawrinka 6-7(3), 7-6(4), 6-3, 6-3 in 2010. Their most recent encounter came this spring on the clay courts of Monte-Carlo, where Wawrinka rolled 6-1, 6-2.

Murray, of course, is a far more formidable force on the hard stuff. He is the defending champion in New York and so far this fortnight he has dismissed Michael Llodra, Leonardo Mayer, Florian Mayer, and Denis Istomin–losing sets to the first Mayer and Istomin in the process. The third-ranked Scot is 41-7 for the year, which includes a triumph at Wimbledon and also a title in Miami. This is the second Grand Slam quarterfinal of 2013 for Wawrinka, who suffered a heartbreaking fourth-round Australian Open loss to Djokovic but outlasted Richard Gasquet 8-6 in the fifth to reach the last eight at Roland Garros. The 10th-ranked Swiss has advanced in New York by taking out Radek Stepanek, Ivo Karlovic, Marcos Baghdatis, and Tomas Berdych. All signs point to a thriller, with a slight edge going to Murray based mostly on his confidence and experience from playing as a two-time major champion.

Pick: Murray in 5

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30 Comments on U.S. Open QF previews and picks: Djokovic vs. Youzhny, Murray vs. Wawrinka

  1. Awful lackluster performance from Andy, but agree with you RITB at least he has avoided a mauling from Nole.
    He needs some down time to re-think and to re-group. I still don’t think he has got over Wimbledon.
    @clayqueen 8.50pm
    A mean remark. Don’t write Andy off yet, and no need to denigrate his slams.

    • deucy,

      I agree. It is better for him to avoid going up against Djoker when he’s not at his best. I am still in a bit of shock over this result. That was not the real Andy Murray out there today. Stan played great, all credit to him. But Murray has the game to beat him. The espn commentators were saying that Murray has not been in it emotionally this week after his great win at Wimbledon.

      There is no way I would ever write off Andy or denigrate his slam wins. He won the USO last year by beating the #1 player in the world. Enough said!

    • I’ve been told by a poster on TalkTennis that I’m a fair weather friend of Rafa’s because I didn’t support him in his down time because I didn’t post much there until TT closed down. Can you imagine???????????

      I’m missing you all there. There is so much going on. It would be great to see you take part.

  2. Andy has reverted to his bad old ways. One step forwards and two steps back.

    Perhaps that should read three great leaps forward and now a huge leap backwards.

  3. This result for me seals the oft put argument that some concentrate on the Slams or peak for the Slams. I have never gone along with this forthe simple reason that you cannot turn your performance on and off like a light switch. A player needs rhythm, needs momentum and above all, winning creates a winning mentality. Although I picked Muzza to beat Stan, he has been flat all tournament and his performances post Wimby have not suggested he was “in it”.

    Rafa has the right approach: treat every tournament you play in as important, every match as important, every player as important, every point as important. Getting into the zone is a force of habit………..

  4. I guess no one stayed up to see Djoker/Youzhny. Guess what? Youzhny got a set off Djoker! Will wonders never cease!

    Unfortunately for him, Djoker was already up two sets. But there is a chink in Djoker’s armor after all. He went walkabout in that third set. Youzhny hung in there and the crowd cheered him on as he continued to fight. He broke Djoker, Djoker broke him, then he broke Djoker again. The crowd was loving it! Djoker had a bit of the shanks going for a while in the third set. But in case anyone thought this meant there would be some real suspense, Djoker pulled it together in the fourth round to bagel Youzhny.

    I think the semifinal with Djoker and Stan could be very interesting.

    • Had no stomach for more tennis last night. I’d hoped Youzhny would battle so good to know he managed to take a set off Djokovic. Obviously the effort took too much out of him. Often when the underdog takes a set they cave in afterwards.

    • lots of people beginning to think Stan has a real chance. I’m not one of ’em, although I now think Stan can and will win a set.

      Youzhny was good in the 3rd. Djokovic was absolutely horrific in the 3rd. (although not as bad as Murray)

      • I have been thinking about whether Stan could pull off the upset. He’s already taken out Berdy and Murray. Is he capable of taking out Djoker? I don’t think so.

        I thought Youzhny put up a nice fight in the third set with the crowd behind him. For once Djoker looked vulnerable. But in his case he was the one who was already up two sets and Youzhny wasn’t going to pull off the big comeback.

  5. Cheers NNy and ed 🙂
    Agree with RITB too, Andy has looked rubbish post Wimbledon. Needs to retreat, regroup and RETURN in winning mode.

    • deucy,

      I am still trying to get over Andy’s loss today. It really did take me completely by surprise. It’s not about disrespecting Stan at all. I saw enough of his match with Berdy to know that he was playing extremely well. But I know Andy’s game. I thought for sure he would take it up another gear or two and win a competitive match.

      I guess it took more out of Andy to win Wimbledon than maybe we thought. He achieved a dream and made history. So now he has to go back and rethink it all. He climbed the highest mountain, but he will find other goals that will motivate him to come back strong. He has Lendl to help him work through this loss. He’s not going anywhere. He will be back.

      I was thinking about Rafa getting knocked out of Wimbledon in the first round. In the end, it didn’t seem all that surprising given that his knee was acting up again and he just played RG after a seven month layoff. Who knew that he was going to come back playing like this?

      So you should just know that Andy will also bounce back. 🙂

  6. I would give a lot to know what Lendl had to say to Andy after that match! We are used to his glum expression even when Andy is flying high but last night the corners of his mouth practically reached down to his chin.

    Players are usually able to take some positives from a bad loss but it’s hard to know how Andy can obliterate that inexplicably poor performance. We saw how jittery he was in his early matches but like most people had assumed he would get into his stride by the time he played his QF.

    He will need plenty of the famous Scottish stoicism to regroup.

    • ed,

      I found myself yelling at Andy in the third set. I way saying – come on, fight! Go down fighting at least! Please! I wanted it for him. Because if you at least try to fight but still lose, then that’s something.

      Lendl has been through a lot in his career. I think he will know what to say and how to get Andy back on track. It’s true that he never looks happy watching Andy’s matches. But the expressions on his face and Andy’s brother’s face said it all. Andy went back to the old bad habits. I think what he has to do is remember what he has done. Then he has to try to build on that great win at Wimbledon. I think he will get through it. Player do go through these tough times. I remember how Rafa was a burnout case in 2011. He just lost the passion for playing. It was a scary thing to see. But players can work through their difficulties and come out stronger.

  7. I think it’s safe to say that Rafa has been so far the best in this USO.
    Of course this doesn’t mean he will go away with the trophy but judging from form alone, he’s the one to beat, not Djokovic.

  8. Commiserations to duecy, that must have been painful ….I was gutted while watching it…andy was so helpless out there and stan was showing no mercy either…poor andy just could not find his A game…

    I agree with RITB, peaking in slams only is a shit concept….it can happen once or twice but not regularly

  9. Djokovic’s match,missed it ! now watching a 27 min highlight reel….

    One thing I have observed is that djo is coming to the net more often this fornight.. he was 27/39 at the net in this four setter where 202points were played in total… thats surely more than usual for djokovic

    Comparing it to last year’s qtr and semi where total pnts played were similar, the diff is there ! djokovic was 18/26 at the net against delpo in 2012 qtr where total points played was 207… he was 13/25 at the net against ferrer in the 2012 semi where total points played were 193

    This may not be suggestive of anything as such but I just felt watching nole play that he was venturing the net a little more often this tournament… may be its also because of the opponents so far who have allowed him to confidently do so or may be he is trying to be more aggressive for preparing against rafa? 😛

    • @vamosrafa, good observation re Novak’s net play. This is deliberate tactic on his part, he mentioned that this is something he has been working on. I have always wondered why he doesn’t play doubles more, like Rafa and Muzza. In my view, this lack of dubs match play is also the reason Fed is so woeful at net play……………

  10. yeah ritb, good point… may be they need to kill their big egos and start playing some doubles lol… and yes, hiring a new man in his team would obviously lead to some changes in djo’s game…. however, approaching the net against rafa is a different game as rafa’s passing shots are out of this world !!

  11. rafa has won 45/51 sets on hard courts this year :O and I was curious to know how many consecutive service holds he has had …he has now won 82 (15+67) consecutive service games !! what is the record? I think wayne arthurs holds the record with 111 service games held in from the qualifying stage to 4th rnd wimb 1999… he also held 108 games once..and that was not including qualifying stages

    # 82 consecutive holds ! this is crazy ! genius rafa

  12. Thanx vamosrafa 🙂 Am not too doenhearted, expected this really, Andy has had a rubbish Summer, as I said b4.
    But, by far the most important question regarding Andy’s defeat is, “where were Kim and Judy?” 🙁

  13. @vamosrafa
    4get that. 🙂 They were there. Just blooming eurosport weren’t showing them. Hate their comms btw. So horribly negative. Think ed was talking about it elsewhere. Wh’s the one with the posh English voice ed? Makes me want to throw up!

  14. No idea. I was getting the American feed and when they announced Taylor Dent (cant remember the other name but between them they ruin the match if you dont mute them) I decided to switch to French TV. Maurisimo giving a coaching lesson instead of commenting on the match was preferable.

    Might have been Simon Reed – he is the senior commie at Eurosport and has a ‘trained’ voice. I guess you would know if it was David Mercer – he is often paired with Frew McMillan: a a deadly combination if ever there was one. The two of them always sound as if they’ve been kept up way beyond their bedtime!

  15. Ah, think it WAS David Mercer, had a “must be that David somebody” thought at the back of my mind………runs to the sick bucket……
    No need for 2 t buckets hough, don’t think the t’other was Frew…;)

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