At the beginning of the summer hard-court swing, Daniil Medvedev said that the thing he–and the rest of the world–wanted to see was more matches between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.
That’s what we almost got in the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open, but instead it will be Alcaraz battling Alexander Zverev for a place in the semis.
In an energy-sapping fourth-round thriller on Monday night, Zverev outlasted Sinner 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 after four hours and 41 minutes. Sinner started dealing with leg cramps in the third set and Zverev clearly felt the effects of the heat and humidity throughout the second half of the match.
“I guess I can say I’m back,” the 12th-ranked German said during his on-court interview, referencing his return from a terrible ankle injury suffered at the 2022 French Open. Of course, Zverev had been playing stellar tennis again even prior to Monday’s result. His 42-20 record this season includes a title in Hamburg, semifinal showings at Roland Garros and the Cincinnati Masters, and U.S. Open wins over Sinner, Aleksandar Vukic, Daniel Altmaier, and Grigor Dimitrov.
Alcaraz has not been at his absolute best on hard courts following his triumph at Wimbledon, but five consecutive three-setters in Cincinnati (including an epic final against Novak Djokovic won by the Serb) left him battle tested for New York. The world No. 1 has been in decent enough form this fortnight while getting past Dominik Koepfer, Lloyd Harris Dan Evans, and Matteo Arnaldi.
Although Alcaraz should win this one, it will likely be competitive. Zverev leads the head-to-head series 3-2 and won their only previously Grand Slam encounter 6-4, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6(7) at the 2022 French Open. With a day off in between matches, the 26-year-old should be recovered from his marathon against Sinner and playing on a full tank. Still, though, Alcaraz–if a thigh issue of his own isn’t a real problem–has the edge from a physical standpoint.
Look for the top-seeded Spaniard to advance, but it probably won’t be easy.
Pick: Alcaraz in 4
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Carlos in 3…but a tough 3.