U.S. Open R3 preview and prediction: Federer vs. Kyrgios

With an assist from Mohamed Lahyani, it will be Roger Federer vs. Nick Kyrgios on Saturday at the U.S. Open.

Kyrgios controversially survived his second-round match on Thursday, setting up a blockbuster battle that marks the fourth between these two competitors. To say the head-to-head series has not disappointed thus far would be a gross understatement. In fact, it generally produces some of the most entertaining tennis this sport has to offer.

All three of their previous encounters have required decisive third-set tiebreakers and an incredible eight of nine sets have resulted in ‘breakers. Kyrgios pulled off a 6-7(2), 7-6(5), 7-6(12) upset at the 2015 Madrid Masters, Federer prevailed 7-6(9), 6-7(9), 7-6(5) last spring in Miami, and the Swiss scored a 6-7(2), 6-2, 7-6(5) victory earlier this summer in Stuttgart.

This highly anticipated reinstallment of the rivalry almost didn’t happen. Kyrgios trailed Pierre-Hugues Herbert 6-4, 3-0 in the second round before Lahyani implored the Aussie to stop giving tennis a bad look and start trying. Kyrgios obliged, dominating the rest of the match for a 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-3, 6-0 win. The world No. 30, who preceded that performance with a four-set defeat of Radu Albot, is a now a solid but abbreviated 23-10 for what his been another injury-plagued campaign.

Federer knows a repeat of Thursday’s incident is not in the cards for Saturday.

“You think it’s going to happen again? It will not happen twice in a row,” Federer commented.

Kyrgios agrees. “I’m going to compete my ass off,” he told the crowd after beating Herbert.

He’ll have to if he wants a realistic shot at ousting Federer, who has advanced with straight-set victories over Yoshihito Nishioka and Benoit Paire. The five-time U.S. Open champion is now 6-1 on hard courts this summer with a loss only to Novak Djokovic in the Cincinnati final.

“Yeah, it’s going to be a lot of fun,” Kyrgios assured. “I definitely know that I won’t be the favorite, (or) the crowd favorite here…. I do believe I can beat him. I have done it before. It’s going to be a lot of fun. I’m going to be looking forward to it.”

Obviously, this should be a good one. Kyrgios is a different player–and more importantly different person–on any kind of big stage than he is against an unseeded opponent on Court 17, and it does not get any bigger than going up against Federer in Arthur Ashe Stadium. Even when motivated, however, the 23-year-old remains inconsistent. Look for Federer to take advantage of some ill-time lapses and cross the finish line before another final-set ‘breaker is necessary.

Pick: Federer in 4

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49 Comments on U.S. Open R3 preview and prediction: Federer vs. Kyrgios

  1. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry with Nik Kyrgios. There is no talking to him. I don’t think he hears any of it. Llayani shoukd have saved himself the effort and not put himself in a difficult position,

    I am just done with Kyrgios.

  2. Having said all this., Fed is playing better than Cincy. I think Djoker – Fed would be a tough match for Djoker as well. Fed has beaten Djoker when he was not expected to in Slams earlier. 2011 FO and 2012 Wimby comes to mind.

    • If Fed plays like he did against Kyrgios from the middle of the 1st set on, he will win. I’m not confident he can do that, but it will more to do with his level than Novak’s. His road to this point has been relatively easy. If he can get by Millman in straight sets that will help his cause as well.

      • Fed could certainly play better against the Djoker than he did in Cincy, but it’s hard to see how he’s gonna win over 5 sets on a court that’s noticeably slower. He’d need to play like he’s not feeling the pressure, easier said than done. As I said at Wimbledon, Djokovic is a pretty big mental hurdle for Federer right now, probably bigger than Rafa, which is historically not the case.

        • Yes, very good point . Djoker is the same mental block as Rafa was for quite a lot of time for Fed. But Djoker is playing really well. I am also backing Djoker over Fed, Fed will get his chances like he would get ahead, get crowd involved, but Djoker knows how to win these matches. Djoker is already an all time great and if he wins this USO, you have to throw him in GOAT debate.

          He is still the only man who believes that he can beat Rafa at Roland Garros which is by far the most difficult feat in tennis

          Djoker is an awesome competitor.

        • Not fair to Djoko to say that Fed lost to him because of mental block. With or without mental block, Djoko could still beat Fed, as shown during 2011-2014, even before 2015 when Djoko was almost invincible.

          • When you start losing its a mental block. Fed had this against Rafa till 2017. He no more has that mental block after he has won 4-5 stright matches.

            2015 between Fed and Djoker was a tight affair, if I remember it was 4-3 for Djoker but Fed lost all important matches and 2015 was Djoker’s best year on the tour.

            Fed has mental block because he has not beaten Djoker since 2012 in GS matches. Its a long way back and that too happened in Wimby Fed’s best surface.

            I have always said that I am very surprised that Djoker has won only 2 USO. He has been very unlucky. I think by the time he ends hi career he should have at least 4 USO given that he is a much better hard courter than Rafa who has 3 USO.

          • It’s just an excuse Lucky. It’s never a significant factor and is an insult to the players.

            More to do with who’s game is just better at the time.

            Confidence in their own game in general a factor yes but this mental block with one player over a longer period is nothing but convenient rationalization.

            (Why do I feel you might get a response beginning with “Well Lucky, …?” but I digress. 🙂)

          • Djokovic is the best hard court player of all time. Much better than Federer. When’s the last time federer won the us open.

          • Fed has three more Hard Court Slams than Djoker. He has equal number of AO and 3 more USO . He has more ATP World tour Finals wins than Djoker.

            Statistically, mathematically and logically Fed is the best HC of all time.

          • I would be more than happy to say Djoker is the best hard courter of all time if he ties or even is one shy away from Fed for USO + AO count.

            And he should not lose to 35 + Fed in any HC slams. He has not so far but should keep up the record.

          • 37 age is not usually where you are anyway near your best. Even by form Fed is nowhere near his best. If you are ranked number 2 , that implies that others are not good enough to challenge you even when you are past your prime. If this is Fed’s prime, then he should play for 3-4 more years as you never retire a year after your prime.
            Dont see Fed playing much beyond next year. If he is challenging Rafa and Djoker even now, that just shows his greatness.

          • There is a difference between an opinion and a fact. Its based on the fact that NO player on ATP tour has been in his prime at the age of 37 in the history of game.

            Unless someone beats this, it remains a fact.

          • I havent seen any tennis pundit categorizing weak era or a strong ear. If 2003-05 was a weak era, 2018 is weaker era than that as it allows a 37 year old player to reach number one ranking . So any slams won by anyone in this era should be counted in the weakest era in tennis.

          • At the end only slams count. Noone remembers the era. Also, its a big blemish in Djoker’s cv that he went off the boil for 2 years something which Fed did not do. Also, Djoker and Rafa have enough years to overtake Fed in slam count.

            If they dont do it , people would always look at slams and classify Fed as GOAT. In 3 slams he has 5 + victories and for the fourth one he entered the final five times. So he has pretty much going for him so far. Statistically he is the GOAT so far. Upto Rafa and Djoker to accept the challenge and prove everyone wrong and not a select few.

          • All subjective.

            If your first statement was true, there’d be no current debate (to which there is, depite any claims to the contrary) and that’s a fact.

          • At 37 if a player is dominating , reaching number 1 ranking , going toe to toe with younger and potential great players, that means he is the GOAT.

            Upto Djoker and Rafa to beat his slam count and prove everyone wrong. Fed’s cv is perfect so far for GOAT.

          • Fed becoming the oldest number is unfortunately a fact.
            It maybe subjective for select few , but those select few are usually ignored and it becomes a fact.

          • Federer became the oldest number?

            That’s nonsensical.

            Oh you mean oldest No. 1 perhaps.

            Sure, during a weak period where Murray was out, Nadal coming back from a stretch of nine tournaments where he wirhdrew from. And Nole MIA.

            Never said him being oldest No. 1 wasn’t a fact.

            Your stated sentence though certainly isn’t a fact as I already stated.

            All you have left are tired old strawman arguments.

          • I never said he lost *because* he had a mental block, that’s a completely different proposition. But I am saying it’s now a difficult mental hurdle to overcome. That doesn’t mean he can’t win, but it’s one of the significant reasons for which I would have Djokovic as the favourite.

          • That’s fine. It’s natural for fans to want to believe that losses from our favourite players are as a result of anything other than a better opponent.

            I don’t buy it.

            Not many fans can admit that this happens.

            When do you think that Federer was beaten when he was near/at his best level? I’m guessing never.

  3. Zverev lost. He should think of becoming a humble person first as that is the first step before he goes deep in slams. I mean seriously , I see a lot of similarities between him and Dimitrov. Both have potential and have failed to live up to.

    In fact Kei is a much better competitor than both of these two in slams. He has got good wins here at USO and gives his 100% whenever required.

  4. Both NK and AZ disappoint!

    AZ just couldnt deal with an opponent who’s crafty and played with varieties. I think most of the youngsters fall short when dealing with varieties. NK is supposed to be the best among the lot as he himself comes with much varieties in his game. Too bad, he’s not interested in realising his own full potential, just want to do things depending on his mood.

    I think Tsitsipas and Shapo have better chances of realising their full potential and they at least can play with some varieties. De Minaur may be another followed by FAA perhaps?

  5. Am I right to say that only Delpo and Fed have not lost a set reaching the fourth round?

    The Fed vs Djoko QF looking more and more likely as I doubt their R4 opponents could do any damage.

    I think if that come to pass, Djoko will beat Fed again; Djoko is no NK, he wont let Fed off the way NK did in the first set today.

  6. Happy that Zverev is out! I like kohls who is a wonderful shot maker so great to see him go through.
    Honestly i think some people on this site overrate Zverev. His fh alone isn’t where it should be to go deep in a major let alone win one!
    The flaws in his game simply aren’t exposed in the same way in bo3. That’s why bo5 always favours the elite.
    I see de minaur really took it to cilic!! Good for him and he has the humility which Zverev lacks…he has guts that kid!☺

    • Amy, did you watch the match?

      A very high level of tennis I thought.

      Did anyone else notice just how deranged Cilic looked serving late in the match? Eyes bulging out of his head and tongue hanging out of his mouth. Truly bizarre.

      De Minaur was pretty impressive for 19.

      Always a few great late night matches at the US Open.

      Nole is seriously back. Only the crowd getting on him would give Federer a chance in this one.

      • No I didn’t see it hawks. Sounds like I missed a good one. I like de minaur a lot: he has skill, humility and guts. I hope he prospers in the game…what are your thoughts about him?
        I’ve seen the Nazi hugger look stark raving bonkers before! ie in the same way you described. I really hope he doesn’t get to the final…actually I really hope kohls beats him!
        Nole is definitely the fave for the match with fed. On a slow hard court his amazing ros will give fed a lot of problems…

        • Yeah I think he has great potential but his size could be a problem long term in today’s game. However, didn’t hold him back last night in what was a very high level entertaining affair. I was really impressed with his ROS on Cilic’s first serve and often punishing his second.

          Cilic was the most derranged I’ve ever noticed as the match went on. It was quite the sight. He’ll bow out meekly if he meets Federer or Djoko.

  7. Mira how are you??I don’t seem to have seen you in a long time!
    I have been meaning to ask you how you are for ages as I know you had some problems a while back. If you don’t mind me asking that is?!

    • Hey amy!…Ermm,thank u for showing your concern amy!Really really appreciate it!…bout my problems…well….everyone have problems right?I have problems left,right,middle,up,down,north,east,south,west…everywhere amy!

      Oppss!…I can sense Ricky with a “Let’s not carried away okay?” line now…hehe…But,thank u once again for caring amy!…I love u for that!

  8. Fed Kyrgios was a waste of a match. Kyrgios was goofing around after he handed the first set to Fed. I wouldn’t read a whole lot into Fed’s performance from the second set on given there was not much pressure once Kyrgios started flaking about. Djoko will be a whole different ball game and he will keep peppering Fed’s backhand that can break down.

    • Kyrgios should have been fined for lack of effort.

      Media didn’t even bring it up.

      Serious lack of concern for the integrity of the game across the board.

  9. Oh dear mira that’s not very reassuring! You are making me worried for you now!….I wish there was something I could do to help but the only thing I can do is send you my love and tell you i am thinking about you!
    You need to tell us if you are feeling bad mira then we can be extra specially nice to you!! Promise me you will??!! xxxxx

  10. Australian breed of players Tomic and Kyrgios are way too arrogant. the 19 year old , the guy who played Cilic is much more studious and hard working like Hewitt.

    Even Millman the guy who plays Fed next is not a well built 6 feet guy but he is hard working. If I remeber he beat Nick in one USO .

  11. Disagree that Fed has a mental block with Djokovic. I don’t think he ever has. He has had two mental blocks in his career. One with Rafa, up until AO 2017. Two, with winning a slam, from about 2014-2015 when he seemed he was too old and wouldn’t be able to get many more chances. That block also ended with AO 2017.

    Losses this year have more to do with age and his opponents just being a bit better on the day (e.g. delpo, Coric, Anderson). Cinci loss was due to age and being out of gas. Fed started fine and (I thought) had the slight upper hand through the first six games or so. But he just had nothing in the tank and played the worst match he’s played since 2013.

    Imo, the only slam loss to Djokovic where I thought Fed was the clear underdog going in was AO 2016 (maybe also Wimby 2014). Again imo, Fed should have beaten Novak at USO in 2010, 2011, and 2015. If they meet here in QF, winner will depend on Fed’s form. That wouldn’t be the case if Novak was at his 2015-16 best, but he’s clearly not. Still, given the decent chance that Fed’s age will tell, I’d say Novak is the slight favourite should they meet.

  12. Disagree that Fed has a mental block with Djokovic. I don’t think he ever has. He has had two mental blocks in his career. One with Rafa, up until AO 2017. Two, with winning a slam, from about 2014-2015 when he seemed he was too old and wouldn’t be able to get many more chances. That block also ended with AO 2017.
    Losses this year have more to do with age and his opponents just being a bit better on the day (e.g. delpo, Coric, Anderson). Cinci loss was due to age and being out of gas. Fed started fine and (I thought) had the slight upper hand through the first six games or so. But he just had nothing in the tank and played the worst match he’s played since 2013.
    Imo, the only slam loss to Djokovic where I thought Fed was the clear underdog going in was AO 2016 (maybe also Wimby 2014). Again imo, Fed should have beaten Novak at USO in 2010, 2011, and 2015. If they meet here in QF, winner will depend on Fed’s form. That wouldn’t be the case if Novak was at his 2015-16 best, but he’s clearly not. Still, given the decent chance that Fed’s age will tell, I’d say Novak is the slight favourite should they meet.

  13. Disagree that Fed has a mental block with Djokovic. I don’t think he ever has. He has had two mental blocks in his career. One with Rafa, up until AO 2017. Two, with winning a slam, from about 2014-2015 when he seemed he was too old and wouldn’t be able to get many more chances. That block also ended with AO 2017.

  14. Fed’s losses this year have more to do with age and his opponents just being a bit better on the day (e.g. delpo, Coric, Anderson). Cinci loss was due to age and being out of gas. Fed started fine and (I thought) had the slight upper hand through the first six games or so. But he just had nothing in the tank and played the worst match he’s played since 2013.

  15. Fed’s losses this year have more to do with age and his opponents just being a bit better on the day (e.g. delpo, Coric, Anderson). Cinci loss was due to age and being out of gas. Fed started fine and (I thought) had the slight upper hand through the first six games or so. But he just had nothing in the tank and played the worst match he’s played since 2013.

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