Expert picks are back for the U.S. Open final on Sunday, when three-time champion Novak Djokovic and 2021 winner Daniil Medvedev battle for the title. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(3) Daniil Medvedev vs. (2) Novak Djokovic
Ricky: Even though Djokovic got clobbered by Medvedev in the 2021 U.S. Open final, I’m not prepared to pick against the Serb in a Grand Slam final against anyone other than Carlos Alcaraz. It’s just not a smart thing to do. Yes, Medvedev destroyed him two years ago. But that was when Djokovic was dealing with the pressure of a calendar-year Grand Slam on the line. That isn’t the case this time around since the 36-year-old’s chance ended with a loss to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon championship match. I’m expecting a much better version of Djokovic, who has been pretty much dominant this fortnight aside from a brief two-set hiccup against countryman Laslo Djere in round three.
That being said, Djokovic should not be an overwhelming favorite. In fact, this match is close to a toss-up in my eyes. Medvedev has been absolutely awesome at this U.S. Open, which is nothing new for him. It’s quite simply his favorite tournament (runner-up in 2019, champion in 2021). Unlike most of Djokovic’s opponents, the Russian won’t go into the match mentally defeated. He knows he can beat the 23-time major winner (he has done it five times)–especially in this particular situation. I had Djokovic over Medvedev in four sets in the final before the tournament started. I’m changing it to five. Djokovic in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: It’s a rematch of the 2021 U.S. Open men’s final, but without the specter of the CYGS hanging over Djokovic’s head. On that occasion, Medvedev played the role of the opportunistic usurper with perfection. With history on the line, Medvedev put in a clinical performance, taking advantage of a physically depleted Djokovic to win in three shockingly one-sided sets. He’s not likely to have that same experience this time around.
First, Djokovic isn’t physically depleted. Second, there is no chance of the CYGS since Alcaraz won Wimbledon. It’s hard to look at this match and not assume that Djokovic is the heavy favorite. Still, it’s Medvedev on hard courts. And Medvedev must always be taken seriously when he’s playing on hard courts. He’s a disruptor, a temperamental threat with a non-traditional game. Expect this one to be close. The Russian had the much more complicated semi, a hard-fought win over Alcaraz. But Djokovic has been a bit out-of-form in a couple of his matches over this fortnight. In the end, it’s hard to pick against Djokovic–so I won’t. But I will also put out there that I wouldn’t be surprised to see Medvedev take the title, either. Djokovic in 5: 6-7(5), 6-3, 4-6, 7-5, 7-5.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Djokovic has the rare opportunity to actually improve on his 2021 accomplishments at majors this year if he is to win the title. Should he defeat Medvedev, he will have won 83 sets this year in the majors with a 27-1 record compared to 81 sets won with the 27-1 match mark from two years ago (he failed to win a set in the 2021 U.S. Open final against Medvedev). The Serb is also two years older now but finds the familiar face of Medvedev across the net once again. In 2019 I personally witnessed when Medvedev became the Medvedev we know today, going for broke in their Cincinnati semifinal — which caused Djokovic to be flummoxed and without answers that day. Medvedev was ranked No. 8 at that time and except for a brief dip earlier this year has resided in the ATP top 5 for the overwhelming majority of the time ever since that victory. His confidence on the court going forward dramatically changed during and following that landmark match in Cincy.
Even though the Russian declared that his 12-out-of-10 performance was a necessity to defeat Alcaraz in the semis on Friday, will he actually be able to replicate this form in the final against someone he has defeated just five times in 14 attempts? Since the sluggish start in his third-round match against Djere, Djokovic has not dropped a set and appears to be peaking. Pete Sampras used to say, “Winning one major is a good year; winning two is a great year.” Djokovic is attempting to win three majors in a year for the fourth time (Roger Federer has done it three times, Nadal just once). Djokovic has won nine majors since the last time he triumphed in New York (2018) and will be able to see his way through again this time. Djokovic in 4: 6-3, 2-6, 7-5, 6-3.
There’s no evidence Djokovic lost because of the pressure of the calendar grand slam. The more pressure, the better he has performed.
Djokovic should do one better than 2021 because he’s less fatigued than he was that year when he overscheduled but he is also 2 years older. On this court, it’s Medvedev’s to lose.
Medvedev in 4 tight sets.
A lot will come down to how well Medvedev recovers. That was a tough match against Alcaraz.
If he recovers, then the pressure moments in that match should give him an edge in this one.
Medvedev is 27 which is about the same age when Djokovic was on 30-40 match win streaks.
Rooting for Meddy and his sarcasms. Not at all sure which version of Meddy will turn up though. Haven’t forgotten the AO final where Meddy lost meekly in straights.
Brilliant runners up speech , one of best Ive ever heard. Next year, he’ll be doing the winners speeches a few times…
Meddy is amazingly gracious and charming in defeat. He was incredibly friendly to Rafa after the AO match with both cracking jokes.
Really hope he gets another slam soon.
Only time Meddy gets mad in defeat is against Romeo.
Romeo made an abusive comment is why.
24. nadal and his lovers in ruins.
We’ll if you had any sense you’d be celebrating, rather than having a dig at Rafas fan, but then again having said that, Rafas not even played for the best part of a year, and people still talk about him, just goes to show how popular he is
It’s just my opinion probably, I just never cared for the whole lovey dovey friendships between players, I much prefer my personal favourite or favourite to be ruthless, used to hate Rafa and Andy practising with Novak, I think Meddy needs to be more ruthless, and alot less friendly….
Hi everyone, how are we doing here?
24 > 21+1*
People like to paint a picture of having an abundance of success and happiness but it’s rarely a true reflection. Life is inherently difficult for everyone because everyone gets old, everyone breaks down eventually band everyone dies.
Yeah, I just listened to one of Djokovic’s post match interviews and this is what he said.
Mememememmemememememememememememe
Yep, funny how this world rewards that.
If the Germans won the war we would’ve had none of that shit. Everyone would serve a common cause with no selfishness whatsoever.
Dont be surprised if we start heading in that direction again before people expect. Enjoy the fruits of your selfishness while it lasts.
Yep, you can’t stop the inevitable; people eventually wake up to what is bullshit and the best way of operating.
The irony is there’s many people out there acting like totalitarianists but claiming to be capitalists.
If you spend all your time trying to help people from the sideline, that’s a totalitarinist mindset. Capitalism is all about deceit and exploitation.
Choose your game wisely.
True that, there’s no free pass.
‘If you spend all your time trying to help people from the sideline’
Whats wrong with courtside coaching. They get paid well enough for it and everyone happy with equal opportunity.
‘Yep, you can’t stop the inevitable; people eventually wake up to what is bullshit and the best way of operating’
Well , it was a few years ago we heard about the Bullshit Russian.
‘The irony is there’s many people out there acting like totalitarianists but claiming to be capitalists.’
Yeah, guess you refer to Bullshit Russian again.
‘Choose your game wisely.’
Thats always been true , but got a whole lot easier with modern day courtside coaching.
Totalitarianism permits individual freedom, it just doesn’t allow people to operate selfishly in a wholistic sense or deceitfully and exploitatively, which is how capitalism works.
People need to get out of their mind what they’ve been brainwashed.
Most ideas in 2023 aren’t innovative or unique.
Yep, totalitarianism in 1940 was too early, we didn’t have the technological foundation for it yet and most people are socialists now anyway, so it’s just a matter of time before the two systems merge together.
The US is probably more totalitarist than any other other country right now. The idea that it is a free capitalist country is the biggest deception on this planet right now.
There’s 40 million people of German heritage living in the US, so it makes sense.
Apologies, the correct term is “Totalitarian” not “Totalitarianist”