It doesn’t get any bigger than this.
Sure, it won’t make headlines outside of hardcore tennis circles becaue Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer are not involved. Real tennis fans know this, though: the stakes literally could not be any higher in the 2022 U.S. Open men’s singles final.
Not only are Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud battling for their first-ever Grand Slam title, but whoever wins will become No. 1 in the world for the first time.
That’s right; it’s a winner-take-all showdown in every sense.
Ruud is the lower-ranked player (currently seventh), but he is the one who has been to a slam final before. Competing on his preferred clay-court surface, the Norwegian finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal this spring at Roland Garros. He has earned another major title shot following victories in New York over Kyle Edmund, Tim van Rijthoven, Tommy Paul, Corentin Moutet, Matteo Berrettini, and Karen Khachanov. Only Paul has pushed Ruud to five sets.
The story has been much different for Alcaraz. One, his run to the final was not surprising–and perhaps even expected. Two, it was much tougher. Alcaraz has survived three consecutive five-setters, beating Marin Cilic in the fourth round, Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals, and Frances Tiafoe in the semis. The Spaniard’s match against Sinner lasted five hours and 15 minutes and ended at 2:50 am–the latest finish in U.S. Open history.
Somehow, Alcaraz bounced right back to win another marathon against Tiafoe and set up Sunday’s incredibly special occasion.
“It’s close,” the 19-year-old said of the No. 1 ranking. “But at the same time (it) is so far away, you know? It’s a final of a Grand Slam, fighting for No. 1 in the world, something that I [have dreamt of] since I was a kid.”
Ruud would have clinched the top spot if Alcaraz had lost to Tiafoe, but now it all comes down to Sunday. The Norwegian wouldn’t have it any other way.
“I think what’s most fair is if we both reach the final and whoever wins the final reaches the world No. 1,” he said prior to the Alcaraz-Tiafoe match. “That would be I think the ideal situation.”
But this could be a be-careful-what-you-wish-for-situation. In his two trips to slam finals, Ruud did not face a single top-10 opponent. This a steep step up in competition for the 23-year-old, and one that he has not yet been able to handle. He trails the head-to-head series 2-0, having lost in straight sets on the red clay of Marbella in 2021 and in the Miami final earlier this season. It should also be noted that he has never won a title above the 250 level. Alcaraz, by contrast, has won two 1000s and two 500s this year alone.
Ruud could emerge victorious if he manages to make it a long, physical five-setter, but Alcaraz may blow him off the court before it reaches that point.
Pick: Alcaraz in 3
Alcaraz in four
Is Alcaraz human? What happens to most humans after they play 3 consecutive 5-setters?
Ruud is the value @ 3/1
There’s always a chance that Ruud turns up and makes it easy for Alcaraz, but you have to assume he wont given current form and having made that mistake in his most recent grand slam final.
and Tiafoe pushed him to the limit which could very well be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
1.45 represents no value whatsoever given the circumstances.
Agree w/ Al
I think it goes to 5 sets, 50/50 match.
Load up on the Alcaraz 3-1 sets if youre so confident and show us your bet ticket…
Agree Guest, a lot depends on the unknowns.
Ruud is a super nice guy but I have been, and am sceptical about his abilities. I am getting very irritated by the tweeting about him making history getting to both the RG and USO finals comparing him with Rafa &tc. The RG draw was about the most lopsided I have ever seen with only Tsitsi seen as a viable contender on his side. If it had not been lopsided he would almost certainly not even reached the semis and would actually probably have gone out before.
Yet again he has benefited by being in the Tsitsi quarter and the draw opening up for him with Matteo a no show in the quarters.
He has only ever won 250 tournaments and really honestly I cant remember a less convincing no1. So I hope Alcaraz wins and gets it done in straights otherwise he may buckle under fatigue. He is a class above Ruud as a tennis player.
I see the women’s final went to a second set tb. I switched off with Iga up a break in the second and cruising and feeling very disappointed by Ons’s performance. Glad at least she got it to a tb.
IBM Watson
Alcaraz 52%
Ruud 48%
Betting Market
Alcaraz 67%
Ruud 33%
Prediction Websites
Alcaraz 70% – 80%
Ruud 30% – 20%
General Public
Alcaraz 90%
Ruud 10%
Do you see a trend here?
Haven’t seen anyone pick Ruud! Apart from the fatigue factor I don’t why they would…
Anyway, big congrats to Iga!
At the beginning of the tournament I didn’t think she’d win. In fact I thought it might be like wimby with her going out early on. But once she reached the semis I thought she would win.
For all.The strength in depth on t he WTA it really is a bit embarrassing that no one seems to be able to beat her, or mostly even get close to her, in finals. I really miss Ash Barty who did have the game to challenge and beat her. Iga is a fantastic player but it’s not a good reflection of the WTA that she is so dominant in finals and raises ?? about the quality of players at the top level.
Rybakina has the power and accuracy when on her game is on so hope she steps up.
OK some commentators I respect say Ruud has improved considerably recently so I will dial down on some of my scepticism. Although he was playing poorly during the grass season which wasn’t long ago! I haven’t seen him play since as I don’t have a lot of time to watch tennis and he’s not a player who I am very interested in.
It’s hard to tell how realistic people are because when your livelihood is tennis you frequently talk people up and don’t put their wins in context.
The quality of that set was rather disappointing.
Seemed to be a lot of points when I wondered at the mistakes and not many memorable rallies although I had to go out the game Alcaraz broke so Maybe I missed some good shots there.
Even so not great quality imo.
What is really impressive is Alcaraz being so forward moving and finishing.at net.
This match is getting better, meaning maybe Ruud can work out how to cut Alcaraz off a little from winning every point. It would be great to see an exciting men’s match in the USOpen final,
Amy,
Iga admits she is not comfortable on hard courts. She seems pretty shy when in the spotlight and keeps her cap nearly over her eyes! Her voice quivers, and she searches for words in her native tongue and in English. For her to make the final and play well is to triumph over her awkwardness. But I must say that Ons was not near her best. The win made me hungry for more tennis. Iga’s win over Sablenka was the best match, followed by Iga’s win over Pegula.
To sum Iga’s performance up, I’d agree with those who pointed out that she improved match by match and peaked at the precise time needed to win. To me, Ons was a bit fatigued and did not have her usual energy or flair.
Yay! Ruud gets the break back.
This final is better than I expected. I knew the commies were bigging-up Carlos.
Ruud seals the break: no more complaining from me about this final.
Alcaraz could throw in a couple of back flips and some handsprings between points.
Time will tell but he sure has springy agility to his game – unlike anyone I have ever watched play gymnastic tennis.
If Kyrgios was playing Carlos he could pound aces on him and go for an underhand serve and mix it up better than Ruud can.
I’m thinking about Dolgopolov’s style and reflexive abilities; Carlos is more solid than and mentally focused though. Guys are going to need to have a clear game plan to beat him. Tiafoe is thinking about how to beat him, to be sure!