U.S. Open final expert picks: Nishikori vs. Cilic

September 7, 2014 Ricky Match previews 140

A five-team panel previews and picks a most unexpected U.S. Open final that will take place on Monday evening at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Either Kei Nishikori or Marin Cilic will capture his first Grand Slam title.

(10) Kei Nishikori vs. (14) Marin Cilic

Ricky: Nishikori leads the head-to-head series 5-2, including 2-0 this season. Their Barcelona encounter was a blowout, but that can be attributed to a clay-court surface on which Cilic’s game does not work as well. Unless one of these two finalists collapses mentally amidst the weight of the occasion, it’s hard to imagine this one being anything but extremely competitive. Nishikori has put forth the effort of his life this fortnight, with five-set upsets of Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka before a Saturday stunner over Novak Djokovic. Cilic is coming off ruthless beatdowns of Tomas Berdych and Roger Federer. As well as Nishikori has played, he survived both Raonic and Wawrinka by the slimmest of margins and benefited greatly from an off day by Djokovic. The world No. 11 will win most of the neutral baseline rallies but Cilic is serving huge and hitting massive groundstrokes, to the extent that he should be able to hold serve on a consistent basis even against an awesome baseliner in Nishikori. One or two loose service games will make the difference, and those are more likely to come from Nishikori–in part because Cilic enjoyed the returning day of his life against Federer and is brimming with confidence in all areas of the game. Cilic 6-2, 3-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3.
Cilic 4

Steen: This is a U.S. Open final that literally no one was expecting and it still has the potential to be a great match. Two players full of desire who have had strong, driven seasons will seek to win a first Grand Slam title. Cilic has had an impeccable year, coming off of a four-month suspension last season and his serving and power game–especially against Federer–really has been spot on. Nishikori, who actually considered skipping the U.S. Open due to injury, has raised his market value considerably and is finally making good on his considerable promise. His easy power, reliable compact strokes, quality movement, and overall tenacity were on display against Djokvic and also against Raonic and Wawrinka. Thanks to how poorly Berdych played in their quarterfinal, Cilic has had an easier route to the final. Nishikori is 3-2 in outdoor hard-court meetings between the two finalists (including a win this year in Brisbane), but I’m picking Cilic. Most of their hard-court encounters have been quite close and Cilic should be the fresher player having played just six sets in his last two matches compared to nine for Nishikori–who had previously been known for his fragility. Cilic 4-6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-4.

Joey: I was at Nishikori’s round of 16 match against Raonic and after going down two sets to one, Nishikori looked like he was ready to throw in the towel. After getting some painkillers, he looked like a new man. Nishikori is a guy who has probably worked too hard over the years, which is why his body tends to fail him. However, that hard work has paid off in a huge way in New York. I logged Cilic’s third-round encounter against Kevin Anderson and it was not pretty, with Cilic converting only six of 20 break points. He got through that one and then struggled against Gilles Simon in the next round, eventually outlasting the Frenchman in five sets. The Croat’s next two matches were literally the exact opposite, with Cilic going 6-0 in sets against Berdych and Federer while playing the best tennis of his life. So, yeah, this is very hard to pick. If Cilic plays like he did against Federer and Berdych, he wins. But I don’t see that happening in his first Grand Slam final. Nishikori’s backhand down the line will make the difference. Nishikori 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3, 7-5.
NishiEdited
Jared: For the first time in more than 10 years, a Grand Slam final will be contested between two first-time finalists as Nishikori and Cilic battle to become the eighth active player with a major title. Nishikori entered this tournament after missing the last three weeks of tennis due to injury and having played only one hard-court tournament since withdrawing prior to the Miami semifinals. However, he took out the No. 5 and No. 3 seeds en route to his first career slam semifinal, in which he dismissed the top-ranked Djokovic in impressive fashion. Cilic, on the other hand, benefited from a weak quarter of the draw but he earned his spot in the final with a straight-set victory over Federer–whom many picked to win the title. Opportunity knocks for both players in the first final since 2002 at Roland Garros to feature two players outside the top 10. Nishikori has won each of the pair’s last three meetings, but Cilic’s improved serve will make the difference in this match. Cilic 4-6, 6-3, 7-6, 7-5.

Pete: What a difference one year makes! At the 2013 U.S. Open, Nishikori lost in straight sets in the first round to world No. 179 Daniel Evans and Cilic was serving a suspension. Impressive names have defeated Cilic in his last five U.S. Open appearances: eventual champion Andy Murray in ’12, Federer in ’11, Nishikori in ’10, eventual champion Juan Martin Del Potro in ’09, and Djokovic in ’08. His time away from the game last year allowed Cilic to rest and he returned to the ATP circuit more mature, determined, and hungry to win. While Cilic played Toronto and Cincinnati, Nishikori’s preparation for this event consisted of three matches in Washington, D.C. He missed the hard-court Masters 1000s due to injury and his status for the U.S. Open remained in doubt as a result. Both men have recorded impressive victories, especially in Saturday’s semifinals. Although it is Cilic vs. Nishikori on the court, it will concurrently be an anticipated chess match between their respective coaches: Goran Ivanisevic and Michael Chang. Speed chess wins the match on Monday. Cilic 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.

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140 Comments on U.S. Open final expert picks: Nishikori vs. Cilic

    • I feel the same way! Just hoping for a great match!! Ah…………..who would have thought?! Now has come the time that we’re going into a GSlam and we simply cannot say who will emerge victorious…………interesting times ahead!!!

      Reply

  7. Interesting. The betting odds still have Cilic as the favourite yet here on Tenngrand the money is going on Nishkori by quite a large margin in spite of 4/5 tennis pundits backing Cilic.

    Reply

  10. Maybe I missed them, but I’m not aware of any references being made to Cilic’s suspension until it was raised at his presser after the SF. I had assumed it was a taboo topic but now it is mentioned casually en passant by all and sundry.

    Reply

  11. As soon as someone gets the better of Fed this starts. On TW one of Fed’s fans has started a thread sayin it’s time to start bashing Cilic as a cheat.

    Reply

  12. I like Kei so much…his fighting spirit, his belief…it’s incredible…I should though root for Cilic since we happen to speak the same native language…I would like him to win this to give credit to Goran who has done such a great job with Marin…however, TBH I am fine either way…both guys did amazing job by reaching finals and they equally deserve to win the whole thing…
    let’s hope for the interesting match unlike the other final where Serena was so dominant…

    Vamos Tennis!

    Reply

  13. I don’t have a favourite either. Goran was one if my favourites in his day so because of that and the fact that Cilic is Fed’s conqueror which has now put him in the Federazzi black book, I hope Cilic wins.

    Reply

  15. I get nervous when matches get hyped up in advance that it will fizzle out with a whimper. But this has to be one of the most eagerly awaited finals in a long time. It has all the ingredients. After all the machinations to deliver Fed for the final to pander to the TV companies I will laugh long and loud if it proves to break the records for viewing figures.

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  18. For the first time that I can remember, Fed’s half played 2nd after the top half and that’s because this year it doesn’t make any difference which half played first as the final was not on Sunday. This proves beyond doubt that Fed gets preferential scheduling. So rigged draws are definitely a reality.

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    • Its amazing that wherever I go fans are complaining about Fed getting preferencial treatment………….perhaps they may be on to something here!! However, if that truely is the case, it really does not help Roger…………..lol!!!

      Reply

      • That preferential scheduling especially on the final weekend rain delay lost Rafa a chance to win 2008 US Open alone which Fed won. If reversed, Rafa would only be one slam away from Fed.

        This is just one of countless examples.

        Reply

      • Nah, I dont think so, in 2008, Rafa would have lost to Andy regardless, his h/c game was nowhere where it should have been. Andy was simply better! I was at the US Open that year, saw Rafa play agianst Mardy Fish….was awesome! Imagine, that was over six years ago…….dont even want to think about how old that makes me…lol!!!

        Reply

      • Possibly, however the preferential scheduling definitely hurt Andy’s chances in the final as Fed’s match was moved up in anticipation of the hurricane and Andy’s was delayed.

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      • As for losing Murray at the 2008 USO, Rafa was very tired after winning the Olympic gold medal in Beijing (he also won FO & Wimbledon in 2008). He has said it in interviews.

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      • Guys, you do realize that in 2008 Rafa had just come from winning Gold at the Olympics where Murray had gone out in the 1st round and gone straight to NY to prepare for the USO? Rafa had played a lot up till then winning RG and Wimbledon and Murray had won nothing. Rafa just ran out of steam, he said he could hardly stand up. Fatigue caught with him.

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      • Ricky Dimon@September 8, 2014 at 3:36 pm
        —Murray owned Nadal on hard courts at that point…—

        If you say it, it must be the true, no?

        The fact is that Andy Murray hadn’t beaten Rafa before the 2008 USO!
        Besides, Rafa defeated A.Murray in the 2008 Canada Open SF 7-6(2), 6-3.

        Reply

      • Its amazing how you guys remember all this stuff about the Olympics and all. Though it may be true, but I still fell Rafa’s h/c game needed fine tuneing a notch or two if he had any chance of winning the US Open, particularly his serves. And that which he did hence why he won the USO for the first time in 2010!

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      • ^^Ricky…you wrote that Andy owned Rafa at that point on hardcourts????????? It’s true that Rafa’s hardcourt game needed improvement, but when they met at the US Open in 2008, they had played 5 previous times, Rafa winning all of them. In 2007, they played the AO and Rafa won. Later they played Madrid on an indoor hardcourt and Rafa won that too. In 2008, they played 3 tournaments prior to the US Open..once on grass (Wimby), once on clay (Hamburg) and once on hard (Toronto), all won by Rafa. And except for their first meeting at the AO in 2007, Andy hadn’t even taken a set off of Rafa prior to their meeting at the US Open in 2008.

        Reply

    • Last 7 years semi-final schedule:
      2008: 1st semi – Fed vs. Djoko, 2nd Semi – Rafa vs. Murray
      2009: 1st semi – Rafa vs. Delpo, 2nd Semi – Fed vs. Djoko
      2010: 1st semi – Rafa vs. Youjhny, 2nd Semi – Fed vs. Djoko
      2011: 1st semi – Fed vs. Djoko, 2nd Semi – Rafa vs. Murray
      2012: 1st semi – Murray vs. Berdych, 2nd semi – Djoko vs. Ferrer
      2013: 1st semi – Djoko vs. Stan, 2nd semi – Rafa vs. Gasquet
      2014: 1st semi – Djoko vs. Nishikori, 2nd semi – Fed vs. Cilic

      So, as far as playing the first semi-final goes, here are the numbers for the top 3:
      Fed: 2/5
      Rafa: 2/5
      Djoko: 4/7

      So, who is getting more preferential treatment than the rest?

      Reply

    • Agreed, there are plenty of straws muuuuch bigger and fatter to harvest when it comes to the “random” advantages gifted to Fedfan over these many years.

      For example, notice the “random” trend in Mark’s post showing Fed vs. Djoko for four straight years (part of a 13 non-clay slam streak that had a premature Djoko randomly drawn into The Chosen One’s half.

      #GreatStuff
      #Humb1e

      Reply

  19. I am still going with Kei in four or five sets. I do think this is going to be a great match. Neither guy was expected to be here. They have both been playing their best tennis. It’s a huge opportunity for them.

    As for Fed, I would think the fact that he lost might be enough for some. Apparently that is not the case. Whatever preferential treatment or scheduling he got did not help him. Cilic came out playing inspired tennis and that was it.

    Reply

  22. If I have to pick between Michael Chang and Goran, I’m going with Goran all the way. I miss him!! However, picking between Cilic and Kei, I’m indifferent about it. I’m fine with either winning. I do think it will be a one-hit slam a la stanimal. I don’t see either Kei, Marin or Stan ever winning another slam.

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    • I guess its the same way no one saw Cilic and Kei making it to the final? I always laugh at these pronouncements bcos in tennis, anything can happen. How many times did they say Rafa can never win on hard, or on grass? Out of all of the younger players I see Kei haivng the most promise. It would not surprise me if he makes it to another final or even win one. Who knows, he might even make it to the final at RG next year!! Rafa, Novak, Andy and Roger are all watching the backs now………nothing will surprise me now!

      Reply

    • Nishikori to win one more slam some times in the next few years, in addition to possibly today. Esp once Rafa (I know, blasphemy), Djoker and Andy become increasingly _relatively_ vulnerable at slams (read: older). Sorry, no mention of The One in the previous sentence.

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    • I would pick Michael Chang any day over Goran. I loved his game. I will say that I don’t think this marks the end of an era at all. I think for now it’s a one-off. However, I don’t knw that either Kei or Marin would not be capable of winning another slam. I don’t think it’s going to happen any time soon.

      But there’s no question as to how Kei has evolved as a player. Now if he can only stay healthy, then he might have a chance to continue to do well. He has improved his stamina, mental fitness, serve and overall aspects of his game. This is well earned for him.

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  23. I would like Cilic to win simply because that will annoy Fedfans more as the knives are already coming out for him, but I think Kei is a better player; providing he stays fit throughout the match, he should beat Cilic.

    Eastern Europe has had a bite of the cherry in a slam champion so it would be nice and good for tennis if the Orient can have one as well. Plus I don’t like people who have a serving advantage because they are taller than average.

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    • to hawkeye63

      Huffingtonpost, 08/28/2014: ¤¤ The BIGGEST IMPACT by NADAL’s ABSENCE is in the prices for the Men’s FINAL. Before his announcement, the Men’s Final had an average price of $837.33. Now prices have dropped down to $773.64, a 7.6 percent decrease in a short span of time. ¤¤

      Reply

      • hawkeye63@September 8, 2014 at 10:08 pm

        Forbes, 9/07/2014: ¤¤ Tickets For US Open Finals 14% Below Last Years Average Price.

        U.S. Open final tickets have dropped 14% to an average of $598. As a point of comparison, that’s 13% LESS expensive than last year’s finals when Rafael NADAL defeated Novak Djokovic in four sets.
        The MOST expensive US Open men’s finals over the last four years also featured NADAL and Djokovic. In 2011, Djokovic beat Nadal in four sets for his 3rd Grand Slam title of the year and 4th of his career. Fans who witnessed it live paid an average price of $856 to see the match. ¤¤

        Reply

  40. Was looking forward to this final, was bored stiff instead.

    Another Slam winner who has never won a Masters 1000, let alone an ATP 500. As Juan Jose says, it’s like high school drop-outs getting PhD’s.

    #TheWaWaEffect

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  41. Cilic deserves to be in the top 4. He is not just a big server, he has developed an effective and lethal ground game. However, his ground game can be neutralized by a good returner but it’s way better than Raonic’s.

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  45. I hope Cilic shows some continuity from now on…hate to see him wining this and then disappear and being beaten by nobody…and I hope top 4 to come back to tennis for a change…and for me true top four are Rafa, Nole, Fed and Andy…the rest are there just for the reason that these four are not on top of their game…Murray is lost, Rafa is injured, Nole is more interested in his new role as a father…Fed may end up being the winner of the circumstances… again… 🙂

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  46. Cilic didn’t play this well before he beat Federer, he even struggled to beat Simon but his serve was lethal yesterday or maybe Kei was fatigued and didn’t make a good feast of the returns. It would be interesting to see where Cilic goes from here. He has improved a lot from when he won Queens by default after Nalby had that wobbly. Cilic look so embarrassed holding the trophy.

    Watch the bookies making Cilic the favourite for everything now, pushing Djoker’s nose out of joint.

    Reply

  47. Wawa played a _relatively_ easy draw at the AO and then played someone in the final who might as well have been a player seeded #150, with such an acute back injury. Wawa was really lucky.

    Cilic has earned this one 5 times more. Yes, he was a little lucky that he didn’t have to play Novak or (a healthy) Rafa in the final after beating Roger, but still.

    It should be much easier for him now to win a second slam some day. Not gonna happen for sure. But much easier.

    Should be easier for Kei to go deep again in the slams. He doesn’t have Wawa’s height, but better overall package, including mental.

    #BetweenTheEars

    Reply

      • I agree with Ricky. I may still dislike Stan for what he did to Rafa when he was injured in the AO final, but he had been knocking on the door the previous year. The two battles he had with Novak in the 2013 AO and the USO semis. He could have won either of those matches. He was getting closer. Then he managed to knock out Novak in the 2014 AO. So he did at least beat Novak on the way to the final. He didn’t earn that win because Rafa was too injured to be able to play. But that doesn’t negate what he did up to that point.

        We saw with Kei in the final that he just had nothing left. It’s true that he had a tough path, beating Raonic, Stan and Novak. But that’s what it takes if you want to win a final. He has to stay healthy and also continue to work on his fitness. I don’t think the top players are in danger at this point. It was like a perfect storm with Rafa out, Murray having to meet Novak in the quarterfinals not playing his best and Fed at this point in his career not able to even get past players now who aren’t at the top.

        The oddsmakers seem to realize that order should be restored for the 2015 AO.

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    • I agree that Kei has a better chance to go deeper than subStandard in future slams. subStandard has peaked and Kei continues to improve and is only 25 whereas Stan has overachieved and is on the fade.

      Also Kei has a much better attitude than subStandard has shown after winning a major.

      #PrimaDonna

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      • Stan will play more slams in his prime and will play more of the ones they do play at 100 percent. Kei is way more injury prone and fragile.

        plus, Stan has more talent. he is more prone to first-round losses but also way more prone to go deep.

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      • Future tense should not be used when referring to Stanford’s time. He has peaked He had a USO SF followed by a W due to injury but nothing in his last three slams and is quickly returning to his norm.

        Kei’s competition in his prime will not be as tough as it was for Stanford.

        They are going in opposite directions.

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      • Well he is not yet 25 so think with this final appearance it has just begun. His game has improved significantly this year.

        He beat Fed in Miami this year, won Barcelona and should have beaten Rafa in the Madrid final.

        Defeating Raonic, Stanford, Djokovic and getting to the finals at the USO after just three hardcourt matches in DC prior to the USO is very impressive.

        So he’s been able to play fantastic beating Federer, Djokovic and thrashing Rafa on clay prior to injuring himself despite all of the time he has missed.

        So, for Me he is in his prime now until he is not in his prime any more say for the next 3-4 years whereas Stanford’s prime is maybe 12 months and that’s leaning towards the generous side.

        Of course, if his injuries continue as they did this year then, as you say, he won’t play enough but that’s premature IMO.

        #YoureWelcomeMyFan
        #DoYou???

        Reply

      • As much as I like Kei, I am not sure he will make another GS final. To me it seems that he falls into the Change-Hewitt-energizer bunny prototype: Run run run fast faster fastest. Hewitt won 2 slams in a week era, and Chang got overpowered by the Sampras-Agassi-Courier trifecta. Kei is too injury-prone and too many big hitters are starting to rise up.

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  48. @Jeu Nadal,

    I think you may be right. I don’t know that it’s even about comparing Kei and Stan’s chances. It’s true that Stan is older and took longer to finally come into his own. But I think that you are correct in saying that Kei is in the same mould as the Chang/Hewitts. Chang just came along at the wrong time and was only able to win one slam.

    Kei’s Achilles heel is his tendency to get injured. That really hurt him this year. I also think that he may be at a disadvantage against guys like Cilic, Jerzy, Theim, Kyrgios, etc. I would love to see him do well because he doesn’t just rely on a big serve and then blasting on big forehand. I love his game. But he may find himself in an era of big hitters once the current top four are gone or past their prime.
    .

    Reply

  49. Have to admit I was disappointed by Kei’s meek capitulation in the final. Whether this was nerves, he peaked too soon, or he lost momentum due to the two day break before the showdown. Possibly all three. Whatever he was a shadow of the Kei who faced down tough competition in all his matches before.

    It’ll be interesting too see where Cilic goes from here.

    Reply

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