U.S. Open R4 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Millman, Djokovic vs. Sousa

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are one round away from a potential U.S. Open quarterfinal contest. They first have to get past unseeded surprises John Millman and Joao Sousa, respectively, on Monday.

John Millman vs. (2) Roger Federer

Millman is through to the fourth round of major for the first time in his career and his reward is what should be an incredible experience but also a brutally tough matchup on Monday at the U.S. Open. He will be going up against Federer for the second time in his career, with the Swiss having won their only previous encounter 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 three years ago on the hard courts of Brisbane. More than three full seasons later, Federer is still flying high at 37 years old. The Swiss already owns one Grand Slam title in 2018 (Australian Open) and his bid for another in New York is underway with straight-set wins over Yoshihito Nishioka, Benoit Paire, and Nick Kyrgios.

Although Millman is in the midst of his best year on tour, his run to the second week could not have been forecasted. The 55th-ranked Australian’s post-Wimbledon swing had included a pair of second-round exits on clay and immediate losses in both Cincinnati and Winston-Salem. Suddenly, though, Millman finds himself playing on Labor Day following defeats of Jenson Brooksby, Fabio Fognini, and Mikhail Kukushkin. The underdog will enjoy himself in this one, but he does not have anything close to the firepower necessary to trouble Federer in the five-time U.S. Open champion’s current form.

Pick: Federer in 3 losing 8-10 games

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(6) Novak Djokovic vs. Joao Sousa

Djokovic and Sousa will be going head-to-head for the fifth time in their careers on Monday. All four of their previous meetings have gone Djokovic’s way and it has been complete domination on every occasion, to the extent that he has taken all 11 of their sets without anything being more competitive than 6-4. They faced each other in the U.S. Open third round in 2013, when the Serb cruised 6-0, 6-2, 6-2.

Turning things around drastically from comeback pains earlier in 2018, Djokovic established himself as the odds-on favorite in Flushing Meadows by winning Wimbledon for the fourth time and capturing a first-ever title at the Cincinnati Masters. The world No. 6 has maintained his high standard with first-week victories over Marton Fucsovics, Tennys Sandgren, and Richard Gasquet. Like Millman, Sousa is also competing in round four of major for the first time in his career. The 68th-ranked Portuguese accomplished the feat by ousting Marcel Granollers, Pablo Carreno Busta, and Lucas Pouille. Sousa is coming off two tough matches while Djokovic raised his level considerably against Gasquet on Saturday night, so everything points to another lopsided affair in this head-to-head matchup.

Pick: Djokovic in 3 losing 8-10 games

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33 Comments on U.S. Open R4 previews and predictions: Federer vs. Millman, Djokovic vs. Sousa

  1. Fed in 3, Nole in 3.

    Sousa is a hard-court specialist, and I would love to say that he’ll take a set off of Djoker, but there’s no way I can bring myself to do that.

  2. Would love to see Fed get another straight sets victory here and if he can bring anything close to his best form that should be enough. However, the chance of Fed bringing another R2 level performance is non-trivial. Age is the wild-card from here on out.

    Novak should win in straights as well, but something tells me this will not be as easy as the Gasquet match. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Novak lose concentration for awhile and drop a set.

    Odds of dropping a set to Millman are lower than Djoker dropping a set to Sousa, but odds of Fed failing to make the QF are higher.

  3. Fed in 4

    Millman won a set vs the great Roger 3 years ago.

    Can’t Millman win the same 1 set (or even 2) against an OLDER roger who is 37 years old.

    Millman is playing solid tennis with strong serving and returning.

    Millman is in good form currently with 3 solid wins here.

    Is younger than Fed by 8 years and will have more energy in the QF’s, which is will be a crucial advantage for Millman as/if the match goes to 4 or 5 sets.

    Like the over to win.

    Joker in 3

    Joker does everything better than Sousa and has far more experience in big matches and Slams! Couple of sets may be tight though.

  4. That was such a fun match to watch between Osaka and Sabalenka! wow. And I see the only one on the bracket that picked Osaka to the final was Eugene – Good picking, Eugene! I hope she wins her QF, SF and it would be great if she could win the whole thing! She’s such a sweetheart.

    Nole was doing the very least required to get through his match vs Joao Sousa in straight sets – it was too hot out there. Well done, Nole 😀 Well done Kei, Kei too.

    Federer in 3, I think.

      • Tennis a nice escape from what’s happening in the US ATM.

        Nice to see Bill Clinton in the crowd tonight. A reminder of saner times.

        Also not disappointed to see Cheaterpova have her 23-0 night match undefeated streak broken.

        #FDT
        #FGOP

  5. It’s miserable wet out there. Look at Millman’s shorts and shirt. He should take off the cap. It’s useless at this point – no sun. Just a wet cap

  6. I think we already know who is going to win this USO but some of us will never admit!!

    Novak is going to win this. Rafa and Roger are playing like crap!! They r really beginning to show their age!!

    #NotANovakFan

    • Monalisa….I think Novak will win too…but my prediction based more on Rafa’s stamina/energy than his crappy play…I think if he successfully go to the final,he will find a way to produce his best tennis against Nole[very possibly] @ other opponents…
      But what worries me is the time he spend on court en route to the final…He needs as fresh legs & fit as possible to face Nole/them…

      But despite that,i’m still clinging that magic will happen for our Rafa…..

      • I don’t know, as long as Rafa is physically 100%, he is just going to be so hard to put away on this court. I feel like if Rafa is going to beat Novak on a hard court again, I think it’s going to be this one. It fits Rafa’s game perfectly- nice high bounce, and it’s really difficult to put people away. I know Rafa can beat Novak here. We will just have to wait and see, assuming they meet.

  7. Fed looks injured. Milman is someone who he would beat in his sleep. First serve percentage is all time low. Anyway if he scrapes thru this he would lose.

    Amazing to see that Rafa and Roger after nice time off in between are not 100%. And Djoker is !!

    • Hey, don’t lump Rafa into this level of play. He’s not playing this badly.

      I mean this is bad.

      But Millman has belief and is pushing him which is the only way to play him. Too many like Kyrgios step onto the court with no belief. Too many free rides. Just goes to show what a bit of confidence will do.

  8. Better attitude = better weapon!

    But puh-leeeze someone remind Roger of how to play tennis. He can’t have totally forgotten during the last set.

    Ah. Hawks, maybe Fed is channeling you and decided 4 easy matches is no way to prepare for the Djoker, so he decided to make it harder!

    #goodthinking

    • Yes he’s fine Ramara.

      Although some fedfan tried to say that Federer doesn’t use the injury excuse.

      We are all human. We should not make our sports heroes a religious experience. They are not Gods.

  9. Dude…. This is scary bad from Fed! He so tense, it’s almost hard to watch. He’s just hitting so many little sitters to Millman, and Millman is just teeing off.

    Props to Millman, though! That dude is competing his ass off and loving it out there. He’s got surprisingly good crowd support, too.

    • He’s certainly struggling with something? Er, could he be afraid to face Djokovic again? Nah. Oh dear, that was bad…

      Ok, I need my sleep, it’s almost midnight here. Y’all get Fed through this, y’hear? I will NOT be denied my Fedole match!

      • That’s the problem Ramara…many times in the past,the projected RaRoger/Fedole/Rafole that we longed to see not happened…Maybe bcoz we expect that too much…Tho,Fed still playin’ in this match…

        But,if Fed goes thru tonight,there is no way he will beat Nole…Unless Nole suddenly injured or have problems etc…

    • I think you’re onto something.

      Wasn’t the last time either.

      Skipped playing Nole at the WTF title match just to play a few days later to win DC with Stan the Whatever.

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