The U.S. Open draw ceremony took place on Thursday afternoon in New York, where the Novak Djokovic’s name was always going to be the big story.
And what a story it is: the reigning Wimbledon champion has landed in the same quarter of the bracket as Roger Federer. Although the majority of the section is soft outside of those two all-time greats, Federer could also have to face Nick Kyrgios in the third round.
In the top half, Rafael Nadal and Kevin Anderson are on a collision course for the quarterfinals in what would be a rematch of last year’s title match–won by the Spaniard in straight sets. It will be an all-Spanish affair right away for Nadal, as good friend and familiar foe David Ferrer is his first-round opponent. Round three is arguably the only chance as a stumbling block for either Nadal (vs. Karen Khachanov) or Anderson (vs. Denis Shapvalov).
Perhaps the biggest news in the top half is another first-rounder between Grigor Dimitrov and Stan Wawrinka, who had to go head-to-head right off the bat Wimbledon. The winner of that one could run into Milos Raonic during third-round action. They are all in Juan Martin Del Potro’s quarter, which is also headlined by a potential showdown between the Argentine and Andy Murray in the last 32.
Rounding out the bracket as potential semifinal adversaries for either Federer or Djokovic in the bottom half are Alexander Zverev and 2014 U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic. It is a friendly section for both Zverev and Cilic, although the German could collide with Kei Nishikori in round four.
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Rafa’s draw manageable but not easy as it looks on paper. He has big hitters all the way from round 3 who just smack the ball hard
I bet no fedfan at wimby gave Anderson any chance but we know what happened there ..so a big hitter can zone in any day.
I always feel nervous when I see Muller close to rafa..he would have to beat kk to face him though. Is Muller a threat??
Muller only a threat on grass. On HC I don’t think so, further more he seems to be plagued by injuries lately.
Same. I don’t think Muller xan bother any top3 ar USO normally.
Ok thanks lucky and Eugene!
at his best he could (and did)
yeah Muller is done (at least temporarily)
I reckon Ricky will pick a rafole final! With Nole to win it. Everyone seems to be picking Nole but that’s good as it takes the pressure off rafa.
I guess that means people are writing off fed!!
I wouldn’t necessarily say that people are completely writing off Fed (history has proven that you can never completely write off Big 3). I think it’s more that given Fed’s recent form, plus the obvious age question, I just think it’s quite clear that the other two guys are favored of Fed right now. It doesn’t mean we’re writing him off- just simply not picking him to win. M
Writing him off would be the people who try to say with certainty that “Federer WILL never win another major in the short remainder of his career”. That is where people would be not smart, in my opinion. All it would take would be for a draw to open up, or for him to suddenly get hot, or for Nole or Rafa to have an off night (however doubtful that is), and Fed could be holding another major trophy.
I personally don’t like his chances at the US Open. However, I do believe that he will have a decent shot at winning the AO again. The conditions there have suited his game so well the past couple years. Not to mention that a two-time defending champion of any major has to be considered a contender, unless he were really struggling physically.
But I just feel like the US Open, unlike the AO, has not suited his game so well. I don’t know what it will be like this year, but last year Ashe played historically slow. At this stage of his career, that makes it very difficult to execute his game. Personally, I like how one hardcourt major is faster (AO), and the other is slower (US). I think it’s only fair that way.
I still can’t decide who I would pick as of now in a potential Rafa-Nole final. The 2013 Final gives me pause to pick Novak, as well as the fact that Rafa has won the most US Open titles over the last decade. But then again, we saw just how much Novak upped his level against Rafa at Wimby, in the big major matches vs. Big 4. Also, the last two times Novak played the Open, he won it and then made the Final. So maybe the more recent US Open conditions suit his game really well, like Rafa? I don’t know. As of now, I think it’s a toss-up, although I might have Rafa as the slight favorite for the title only because he is more likely to make the Final than Novak is.
I didn’t realize this until someone pointed it out, but Rafa has never defended a title outside of RG? I would say that he would have had a very good shot at defending his Wimbledon title in 2009, but the classic unfortunate Rafa-injury-curse struck. But still, I was surprised to hear that. So it would be awesome for him to finally do it in like his 15th season or whatever. Given his incredibly easy path to the Final, he has a very good chance at pulling it off.
Ok, I’m officially declaring that I see Rafa as the favorite here, however slight, since the draw came out. There is just no way that any of those dudes are remotely coming close to knocking Rafa off before the Final. If Novak makes the final, which I expect him to, then I have no idea who should be favored at that point. But Novak has a much tougher path to the Final than Rafa, so I think Rafa should be favored for the title as of now
Until Australia this year, Federer hadn’t defended ANY slam title since 2008, a ten year stretch.
Rafa is a really good player but he won’t win the US Open this time.
Last year was horrible, many good players were missing, injured etc but i am sure Rafa will do his best and win some matches but he can’t win the trophy this time, it’s impossible.
Ooooh, Stanley…. You just gave everyone the new hashtag quote for the next month haha!
#It’sImpossible
Stanley- how could you say it’s “impossible”? Please explain this to me. His draw until the Final will likely be as easy as last year. And then it’s a toss-up, but Rafa has had good success over Novak at the Open previously- more than Novak has had over him.
I’m not at all saying that Rafa is a lock for the title, but “it’s IMPOSSIBLE”?? That’s truly laughable, Stanley. You can pick against Rafa to not win it all, but why say it’s “impossible”, when we all know that that statement is categorically false? You’re not fooling anyone, Stanley…
I have a better hashtag for said poster:
#PDFTT
Ok it’s possible.
I just don’t see him winning it though.
It’s ok, Kevin. If Stanley said Rafa winning the USO was a lock, THEN I’d be seriously worried. “It’s impossible” works for me. 🙂 (Now I just need “Jim Courier’s” reverse reassurance!
Rafa gets written off all the time nothing new lol ….
I wouldn’t write off any player with a double-digit slam count, but it makes sense to me that even some of the more ‘optimistic’ Federer fans are downplaying his US Open chances. On paper his last few months have been reasonable – a Halle final, Wimbledon QF, then straight into a Cincy final. Nothing to sneeze at whether you’re 27 or 37. Yet it makes sense to be a bit pessimistic if you (1) take into account his average performance at those tournaments; and (2) look at how he lost. He’s been poor on the big points and lost big matches in uncharacteristic ways.
No point getting distracted by a less than favourable draw, because easily his biggest problem here is just the way he’s been playing recently. The return of serve and the forehand have gone AWOL. It was his serve that kept him comfortable at Cincy (not uncommon) but even that let him down in the big moments in the final. The frustration looks to be getting the better of him too. Alhough he’s sometimes grumpy even when he’s winning, it’s gotten worse lately. Not really a state of mind you want heading into a slam.
For Rafa I see largely the opposite. Forget about the nice draw, because his best recent form is good enough to win even with a harder one. If he ends up playing Novak then yeah it’s probably another epic battle and it’s more than winnable on (slower) HC, but that’s still a way off yet. Novak wasn’t totally convincing in Cincy, despite that being a very good win. I would have him prevailing on his side of the draw, although I still don’t feel like anyone’s the sure thing they used to be (except Rafa @ RG).
Rafa’s half will play on Monday:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DlXP9NJXoAEfdPM.jpg
TWD great post well said 😉
Not really a fan of this so called awesome Rafole rivalry, due to all the old cliches that come up when the two meet, Rafa was lucky, Novak was unlucky, Novak wasnt at his best, Novak was awesome, couldve gone either way, net cords, roofs, etc, etc, lets face it Rafa never gets much credit for his wins against Novak :-/
Rafa not able to defend any slam wins outside of the FO? Well, that’s because in 2009 which should be his peak year, he was injured hence he missed the chance (a very good chance) of defending his Wimbledon title. He was having Fed’s number every where except at the USO where they had not met.
At AO2010 too he had his knee injury that he had to retire against Murray in the QF, hence not able to defend his AO title. He missed USO2014 as he had his right wrist injury so he’s unable to defend his 2013 title. Of course in 2011 he was beaten by the better man ie Djoko at Wimbledon and USO hence he wasn’t able to defend both titles.
Rafa can beat Djoko, at least at the USO in addition to the FO. He had beaten a better Djoko than the present one in 2013 when Djoko was then no.1, and Rafa beat him fair and square. If people could say that Djoko wasn’t at his best when he lost to Rafa, we could also say that when Rafa lost to Djoko, Rafa wasn’t at his best either.
I don’t understand why people are doubting Rafa, claiming that he won last year at the USO because he had an easy draw; are they forgetting that Rafa was a two times USO champion before 2017, and beating Djoko in the final both times?
When Rafa is/was playing well (he obviously was playing well last year to become no.1 again just before the USO) he will have every chance to win at the USO besides the FO. People seem just wanting to remember his 2015 and 2016 when Rafa wasn’t playing well at all. To me his 2015/2016 were anomalies, when he was in a slump. He reached HC slam finals in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and then 2017 (twice), winning four out of eight finals ie 50% success rate, not bad for a ‘clay courter’.
I don’t think “people” are doubting Rafa, Lucky. Only Stanley. And he pretends to doubt Rafa every tournament.
Alison- you are right that Rafa has had his instances of wins over Novak being discounted or downplayed by diehard Novak fans and/or Rafa haters. To be fair, though, Novak has also gotten his fair share of “he got lucky” in the Rafole rivalry from the diehard Rafa fans and/or Novak haters… I mean, not even two months ago, all we saw on this site was people saying that Novak only won because of the roof… Every mega-fan of a Rafa and Novak is always going to think that their player gets the short end of the stick. As someone who has no fight in the Rafaole rivalry, I have seen widespread complaining on both sides that the other guy just got lucky. It all depends on the site/video/post. If you go to a highlight video of a big Rafaole match that Rafa won, or a Nole-centric fan site, it will be flooded with Novak fanatics downplaying Rafa’s win.
Then if you go to a highlight video of a close one that Novak won, or a Rafa-centric site, there will be people downplaying Novak’s win or making excuses.
This is just the reality of sports, politics, and anything that people are extremely passionate about. The instances where our favorite player gets unfairly criticized stand out so much, while we naturally downplay the times when the other guy gets unfairly criticized.
I can’t even tell you how many times I’ve seen Novak fans on social media say pretty much exactly what you said in your comment, but flipped around. And I’ve obviously seen many Rafa fans share your view. Sports!