U.S. Open QF previews and predictions: Cilic vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Millman

There is a rematch of a Grand Slam final in the U.S. Open bottom-half quarterfinals on Wednesday, but it is not Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic. It is Marin Cilic vs. Kei Nishikori, while Djokovic runs into unseeded John Millman.

(7) Marin Cilic vs. (21) Kei Nishikori

Outside of the Big 4 or Big 5, Cilic vs. Nishikori is arguably the best U.S. Open rivalry of the current era. These familiar foes have faced each other 14 times heading into Wednesday’s quarterfinal contest, including three times at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Nishikori prevailed 5-7, 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-1 in a five-hour marathon eight years ago, Cilic won 6-3, 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3 two seasons later, and the Croat captured his first career Grand Slam title with a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 rout in 2014. Overall, Nishikori leads the head-to-head series 8-6 and 6-5 on hard courts.

Cilic was mostly dominant en route to the quarterfinals, hammering Marius Copil, Hubert Hurkacz, and David Goffin without dropping a set. But the seventh seed endured one massive scare, escaping a two-set deficit to withstand Alex de Minaur’s upset bid 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 during third-round action. Nishikori lost only one set in victories over Maximilian Marterer, Gael Monfils, Diego Schwartzman, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. The world No. 19 from Japan is bidding for his third career U.S. Open semifinal appearance, but Cilic still puts him to shame in terms of slam experience with runner-up finishes at Wimbledon (2017) and the Australian Open (2018) to go along with his title at this tournament. Those factors along with Cilic’s power that works extremely well in these conditions should allow him to survive a tough one.

Pick: Cilic in 4

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(6) Novak Djokovic vs. John Millman

This was supposed to be Djokovic vs. Roger Federer when the draw was revealed almost two weeks ago. But as Millman said after beating Federer for by far the biggest win of his career on Monday night, “that’s a great thing about tennis, that’s the great thing about sport: there’s always upsets that can happen.” A monumental upset did happen, as the 55th-ranked Australian recovered from a set and a break down to shock Federer 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(7), 7-6(3). Millman had never even been to the fourth round of a major in his career, but the 29-year-old earned his shot at the 20-time slam champ thanks to previous victories over Jenson Brooksby, Fabio Fognini, and Mikhail Kukushkin.

Millman’s reward is another night session in Arthur Ashe Stadium, this time for a second career meeting with Djokovic. The sixth-ranked Serb took their only previous encounter 6-2, 6-1 just a couple of months ago on the grass of Queen’s Club. Djokovic is an even heavier favorite this time around, as his comeback from a 2017 injury now includes titles at Wimbledon and the Cincinnati Masters. Maintaining his fine form, the two-time U.S. Open champion is back in the quarterfinals following mostly routine defeats of Marton Fucsovics, Tennys Sandgren, Richard Gasquet, and Joao Sousa. It will be tough for Millman to bounce back from such a monumental occasion especially with Djokovic on the other side of the net, so one-way traffic can be expected.

Pick: Djokovic in 3 losing 11-14 games

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36 Comments on U.S. Open QF previews and predictions: Cilic vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Millman

  1. I forgot to mention that probably the main reason Kei is able to do as well as he does is because he is an excellent returner. Usually top-notch.

    This will be a good win for Kei if he can just hold on!

    • Kei is possibly my favorite player when he’s healthy. He is just stunning with his footwork, speed, shot selection — really smart player. All that talent – if he was six feet tall.

  2. Honestly I’ve always loved Cilic’s game and attitude. I don’t know the context of this whole Cilic being a nazi thing you guys talk about. I’ve never heard about it and can’t find it when I look it up. Can someone explain how/why that’s a thing?

    • It’s from a long time ago, Benny. I don’t really remember the story – I don’t know how relevant it would be at this point. Marin seems like a nice person and has a good attitude. I don’t like his tennis as much as I do Kei’s or many others so I rarely cheer for him.

      • I think I found it. After the 2014 US Open, he was greeted by several thousands of Bosnians from his hometown where he was visiting. There was a picture taken of him smiling with and embracing a famous Bosnian singer that has been associated with Neo-Nazism. I understand how that would annoy many. For me, I just focus on him as a player and to me he seems like a great guy. Would be awesome to see either guy advance.

  3. Marin was absolute money down the stretch against De Minaur. If it weren’t for that stupid delay at Wimbledon where he led Pella 6-3 6-1 then lost the next three sets the next day in what felt like a total fluke, he would’ve made at least the quarters at every slam this year.

  4. Nishikori is probably an easier opponent for Novak than Cilic BUT that doesn’t mean he can’t still provide a stern test. Also did they just say Kei has the best final set record of anyone in the Open Era????!!!! Did they mean straight up or just at the US Open?! Either way that’s awesome

  5. As someone who has always had a special appreciation, it was an HONOR to witness him take that match. He was freakin’ awesome on return in the biggest moments, two in particular-

    The first was at 6-5 in the tiebreak when Kei CRUSHED that return winner to take the tiebreak and set. I can’t even tell you guys how bonkers I was going after that shot haha. Kei just straight up was like, “I’m sorry, Marin, but I’m taking this set right here and there’s nothing you can to stop me.” Clutch!

    Then the obvious second one was the when he broke to take the match. I could just feel it after Kei held for 5-4 that he was going to break Cilic to take the set. You could feel the determination from Kei, as well as the nerves from Cilic, going into that last game.

    Awesome match in terms of suspense. Cilic did well to stay tough and break back in the 5th set. But he ultimately couldn’t hold on.

    I’m also happy that Kei got to get a least a little bit of revenge for 2014. Although it doesn’t mean even half as much as Cilic’s win over him in the Final… UNLESS Kei has a miracle and wins the whole damn thing. But I think we all know how much the deck is stacked against him.

    • Great report Kevin! Thanks, I’m feeling the experience and smiling like I’m right there. I know being there is so special. I’ve been to one Indian Wells and seeing the players in person and on the court is an experience I crave again. Hopefully I’ll get there again. I would probably be too hyped to even type a post.

      Kei is electric. I’m a Nole fan but I would be so happy for Kei if he beat both Nole and Rafa to win a GS. And, I feel the same about Delpo as well.

      I know Rafans want Rafa to pass Federer’s GS record and I believe Rafa will do it easily. But I do like to spread the winnings around 😀

      Rafa is determined and I think he’ll win this USO – if he has close to enough strength left after Delpo. He is the best competitor ever in tennis.

      I’d just love to see Kei beat him and Nole and win a GS LOL

      #willneverhappen

        • 😋 me too. But this guy Millman…I don’t know but he appears to have endless energy and stamina. Right now I’m worried about Nole.

          It would be something if the final ends up being Rafa v this guy Millman. Certainly Rafa could take him out….I’d hope.

          • Yes. Worried about Nole. I turned the match on just in time to see Nole sitting there with his shirt off and my gosh – he looks bone thin again. His arms – where did the muscles go? I heard it said that Nole had gained something like 4 or 5 Kg of muscle. And he looked good in Cincy. But I swear he’s lost it all after a two weeks in the heat. He really needs to get some nourishment that will put muscle on and get his power back. Seriously, Big Al.

            It will be a miracle if he can get through this guy – the not so run of the Mill, Millman in straight sets.

            Wonder how Kei would do vs Millman? I can’t watch this. I’ll see the score in the morning. fingers crossed for Nole.

  6. 26 ball rally right of the bat. Nole wins the point. Super sleek looking Nole but it’s going to be a long night at this rate.

    Followed by a 27 shot rally won by Millman. God, they are just grinding it out.

    But… Nole breaks. He’s the best returner. I wonder if Novak has the fitness to keep up with this super fit Australian. Hope this isn’t a 5 set match.

    Nole up 3-0. whew.

    • Oh hello dear MA. I just need a shoulder to lean my aching head on. If you are watching this, I’ll try to stay up but it’s pretty monotonous compared to Rafa v Thiem last night. sigh….

      • That’s okay RC!…Honestly,i don’t think Millman can hurt Nole…He can win against Roger coz Roger was not well at that time[tho,i applaud Millman mental strength & bravery too]…But Nole is a different beast…Don’t worry too much k?I predict Nole to the final,and i will stick by it RC!….He’s a different Nole now u know…..

  7. Millman is wearing down my man, Nole. sheesh. Federer won the first set but Millman wore Fed down with this muscular, bone crushing, lung burning, fast paced grinding tennis.

    Jelena looks tired, I”m tired. It’s hard to watch for a Nole fan. Millman is a ball machine. The crowd seems to like it. Best of luck Nole. Hope you win. I’m too tired for this.

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