U.S. Open QF previews and predictions: Cilic vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Millman

September 4, 2018 Ricky Match previews 106

There is a rematch of a Grand Slam final in the U.S. Open bottom-half quarterfinals on Wednesday, but it is not Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic. It is Marin Cilic vs. Kei Nishikori, while Djokovic runs into unseeded John Millman.

(7) Marin Cilic vs. (21) Kei Nishikori

Outside of the Big 4 or Big 5, Cilic vs. Nishikori is arguably the best U.S. Open rivalry of the current era. These familiar foes have faced each other 14 times heading into Wednesday’s quarterfinal contest, including three times at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Nishikori prevailed 5-7, 7-6(6), 3-6, 7-6(3), 6-1 in a five-hour marathon eight years ago, Cilic won 6-3, 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-3 two seasons later, and the Croat captured his first career Grand Slam title with a 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 rout in 2014. Overall, Nishikori leads the head-to-head series 8-6 and 6-5 on hard courts.

Cilic was mostly dominant en route to the quarterfinals, hammering Marius Copil, Hubert Hurkacz, and David Goffin without dropping a set. But the seventh seed endured one massive scare, escaping a two-set deficit to withstand Alex de Minaur’s upset bid 4-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 during third-round action. Nishikori lost only one set in victories over Maximilian Marterer, Gael Monfils, Diego Schwartzman, and Philipp Kohlschreiber. The world No. 19 from Japan is bidding for his third career U.S. Open semifinal appearance, but Cilic still puts him to shame in terms of slam experience with runner-up finishes at Wimbledon (2017) and the Australian Open (2018) to go along with his title at this tournament. Those factors along with Cilic’s power that works extremely well in these conditions should allow him to survive a tough one.

Pick: Cilic in 4

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(6) Novak Djokovic vs. John Millman

This was supposed to be Djokovic vs. Roger Federer when the draw was revealed almost two weeks ago. But as Millman said after beating Federer for by far the biggest win of his career on Monday night, “that’s a great thing about tennis, that’s the great thing about sport: there’s always upsets that can happen.” A monumental upset did happen, as the 55th-ranked Australian recovered from a set and a break down to shock Federer 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(7), 7-6(3). Millman had never even been to the fourth round of a major in his career, but the 29-year-old earned his shot at the 20-time slam champ thanks to previous victories over Jenson Brooksby, Fabio Fognini, and Mikhail Kukushkin.

Millman’s reward is another night session in Arthur Ashe Stadium, this time for a second career meeting with Djokovic. The sixth-ranked Serb took their only previous encounter 6-2, 6-1 just a couple of months ago on the grass of Queen’s Club. Djokovic is an even heavier favorite this time around, as his comeback from a 2017 injury now includes titles at Wimbledon and the Cincinnati Masters. Maintaining his fine form, the two-time U.S. Open champion is back in the quarterfinals following mostly routine defeats of Marton Fucsovics, Tennys Sandgren, Richard Gasquet, and Joao Sousa. It will be tough for Millman to bounce back from such a monumental occasion especially with Djokovic on the other side of the net, so one-way traffic can be expected.

Pick: Djokovic in 3 losing 11-14 games

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106 Comments on U.S. Open QF previews and predictions: Cilic vs. Nishikori, Djokovic vs. Millman

  14. Nole can win in 4 or 5 but Millman is a tough sob and will make life a hell for the Joker.

    If Millman can destroy Fed the Goat(who all of you said will win in 3 sets vs Millman and also has the greatest chance to win the US Open) in 4 sets just think what Millman will do to Novak?

    Millman has very strong strong chance of upsetting Novak because of the below reasons. But not betting on the same. Just like the over to hit.

    1) Millman is high on confidence having beaten 3 good players(Federer, Kukushkin and Fabio Fognini being an underdog!

    Infact Fabio Fognini is the far better player than all the 4 players Nvak beat so far. So, you can judge at how a level is Millman in his confidence and skill level.

    f you are wonder struck by the 2 set win on Grass and expect a similar result today then you can be mistaken as Millman has the skill, confidence and fitness to take this to the 4th or the 5th set and anything can happen.

    2) Novak does not like high heat or humidity and doesn’t perform well in this environment. Millman thrives in these situations as he comes from a very hot area of Australia and likes these extreme heat/humidity conditions!

    So, if the match goes beyond 1.5 to 2 hours or into the 4th set, Millman is going to be the fresher fighter and can win! Just see how the humidity affected Fed’s performance and his ability to think clearly. It can happen to Novak also who is NOT young anymore. He tells that all the time in his Interviews! Novak is in his middle age at 31 years old with weak scrawny legs…which becomes tired if played for 1.5 to 2 hours unlike the strong tree trunk like legs of Millman! Millman’s body is toughened in a mill!lol

    3) Novak is seemingly TIRED from playing too many matches nearly non-stop from Wimbeldon and played nearly 20 matches in the last 1 month. That is very taxing on an old 31 years old body of Novak.

    4) Any sensible player takes 1 tournament rest after winning a tournament. Novak was tired after winning the Wimbeldon but continued and won another Tournament in Cincinnati. So, he has no energy left and is running on fumes currently and playing with pure will power attracted by the big lat paycheck of the year in the form of the US Title.

    Novak cannot continue on fumes any longer. Millman is the far fresher fighter. But Novak can win with his superior experience and with his tough serbian will power! But the win can come in 4 or 5 sets and will leave Novak with no energy for next round and will be an easy meat for his next opponent!

    4) Millman is the far stronger, fresher, faster athlete. This one factor is enough for Millman to be in the fight until the end of the 4th or 5th set and can possibly win it!

    5) There is not much difference in the skill level between Novak and Millman now on this slow hard court of US Open! A different kind of skill level is needed for playing on the speedy Wimbeldon courts. did you guys observe the skill level of Millman in his match vs Federer! He outbeat the GOAT in every aspect of tennis with intelligence, speed, clever counter attacks, passing shots, beautiful variation of serve etc.

    Millman has practised with Federer and learnt a lot of new skills besides having some new team members and training strategies! All this will ensure that Millman will have a good chance of winning today’s match. But not betting on his win. Just that he will push the over and cover the spread like he did vs the GOAT!

    This is a tournament of UPSETS! BE WARNED! If you just go by the Big name of the Top Players like that of Anderson, Federer etc. then big loses are in store! current performance, skill level, energy level etc all need to be taken into consideration…and NOT just BIG (soon to tumble) NAMES and old H2H’s!LOL

    BOL

    Reply

  16. I don’t disagree Djoker – but I do hope you are wrong 😀

    Millman does appear to be more acclimated to the conditions than most. And I worry about Nole.

    Why don’t they close the roof like they do at AO when there’s an excessive heat warning? Day after day running around in that kind of heat can cause serious problems. They should have closed the roof and turned on the AC days ago.

    Reply

  17. Nishikori has the worst serve… He rolls second serves in at like 70 mph. It’s actually incredible to me that Kei has been able to do as well as he has with such a weak serve. If only the guy was just like 2 inches taller even, he could be a whole other animal of a player. But he’s done amazing given his relative physical disadvantage!

    Reply

      • Yes, Ratcliff, I am. 🙂 I’m quite lucky. I was originally going to go to just the night session tonight, as I originally assumed I would get to see Fed-Djokovic. But once it became Millman-Djokovic, I decided I’d rather see Kei-Cilic. And while the quality of tennis has been rather poor in my opinion, it has been a competitive match which is great! So the last two matches I saw have been 5 setter. The Osaka match was so fast, and it took me a while to get here, it was over before I even arrived! 🙁

        Reply

        • You lucky lucky person!! I would be like a kid at Disneyland to have a ticket for today. I love Osaka. And would like to see the Keys vs Suarez-Navarro match. CSN has a crazy strong one-handed backhand. She is very small but she’s like Kei – makes the most of what she’s got. Not sure she’ll beat Madison Keys though

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  18. Naomi Osaka has a bigger serve than Kei does. I think she’s close to 6 feet tall too. Kei makes the most of what he’s got. I love Kei.

    Reply

  19. It’s hard not to think that whichever one of these guys faces Novak, they will likely lose to him… Although I think Cilic would have a better shot against Novak.

    Novak would absolutely tee off on all Kei’s sub-100mph serves… and there’s a lot of them. I understand that it is Kei, not Cilic, who has actually beaten a prime Novak in the SF of the US Open. I just don’t see Kei as physically at the level he was a few years ago. It sucks he’s had to struggle so badly with injury. You can see it- he’s just lost a slight edge I believe. It sucks, cuz I like Kei a lot.

    Reply

  22. I forgot to mention that probably the main reason Kei is able to do as well as he does is because he is an excellent returner. Usually top-notch.

    This will be a good win for Kei if he can just hold on!

    Reply

    • Kei is possibly my favorite player when he’s healthy. He is just stunning with his footwork, speed, shot selection — really smart player. All that talent – if he was six feet tall.

      Reply

  27. Honestly I’ve always loved Cilic’s game and attitude. I don’t know the context of this whole Cilic being a nazi thing you guys talk about. I’ve never heard about it and can’t find it when I look it up. Can someone explain how/why that’s a thing?

    Reply

    • It’s from a long time ago, Benny. I don’t really remember the story – I don’t know how relevant it would be at this point. Marin seems like a nice person and has a good attitude. I don’t like his tennis as much as I do Kei’s or many others so I rarely cheer for him.

      Reply

      • I think I found it. After the 2014 US Open, he was greeted by several thousands of Bosnians from his hometown where he was visiting. There was a picture taken of him smiling with and embracing a famous Bosnian singer that has been associated with Neo-Nazism. I understand how that would annoy many. For me, I just focus on him as a player and to me he seems like a great guy. Would be awesome to see either guy advance.

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  29. Marin was absolute money down the stretch against De Minaur. If it weren’t for that stupid delay at Wimbledon where he led Pella 6-3 6-1 then lost the next three sets the next day in what felt like a total fluke, he would’ve made at least the quarters at every slam this year.

    Reply

  36. Nishikori is probably an easier opponent for Novak than Cilic BUT that doesn’t mean he can’t still provide a stern test. Also did they just say Kei has the best final set record of anyone in the Open Era????!!!! Did they mean straight up or just at the US Open?! Either way that’s awesome

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  37. As someone who has always had a special appreciation, it was an HONOR to witness him take that match. He was freakin’ awesome on return in the biggest moments, two in particular-

    The first was at 6-5 in the tiebreak when Kei CRUSHED that return winner to take the tiebreak and set. I can’t even tell you guys how bonkers I was going after that shot haha. Kei just straight up was like, “I’m sorry, Marin, but I’m taking this set right here and there’s nothing you can to stop me.” Clutch!

    Then the obvious second one was the when he broke to take the match. I could just feel it after Kei held for 5-4 that he was going to break Cilic to take the set. You could feel the determination from Kei, as well as the nerves from Cilic, going into that last game.

    Awesome match in terms of suspense. Cilic did well to stay tough and break back in the 5th set. But he ultimately couldn’t hold on.

    I’m also happy that Kei got to get a least a little bit of revenge for 2014. Although it doesn’t mean even half as much as Cilic’s win over him in the Final… UNLESS Kei has a miracle and wins the whole damn thing. But I think we all know how much the deck is stacked against him.

    Reply

    • Great report Kevin! Thanks, I’m feeling the experience and smiling like I’m right there. I know being there is so special. I’ve been to one Indian Wells and seeing the players in person and on the court is an experience I crave again. Hopefully I’ll get there again. I would probably be too hyped to even type a post.

      Kei is electric. I’m a Nole fan but I would be so happy for Kei if he beat both Nole and Rafa to win a GS. And, I feel the same about Delpo as well.

      I know Rafans want Rafa to pass Federer’s GS record and I believe Rafa will do it easily. But I do like to spread the winnings around 😀

      Rafa is determined and I think he’ll win this USO – if he has close to enough strength left after Delpo. He is the best competitor ever in tennis.

      I’d just love to see Kei beat him and Nole and win a GS LOL

      #willneverhappen

      Reply

        • 😋 me too. But this guy Millman…I don’t know but he appears to have endless energy and stamina. Right now I’m worried about Nole.

          It would be something if the final ends up being Rafa v this guy Millman. Certainly Rafa could take him out….I’d hope.

          Reply

          • Yes. Worried about Nole. I turned the match on just in time to see Nole sitting there with his shirt off and my gosh – he looks bone thin again. His arms – where did the muscles go? I heard it said that Nole had gained something like 4 or 5 Kg of muscle. And he looked good in Cincy. But I swear he’s lost it all after a two weeks in the heat. He really needs to get some nourishment that will put muscle on and get his power back. Seriously, Big Al.

            It will be a miracle if he can get through this guy – the not so run of the Mill, Millman in straight sets.

            Wonder how Kei would do vs Millman? I can’t watch this. I’ll see the score in the morning. fingers crossed for Nole.

  38. 26 ball rally right of the bat. Nole wins the point. Super sleek looking Nole but it’s going to be a long night at this rate.

    Followed by a 27 shot rally won by Millman. God, they are just grinding it out.

    But… Nole breaks. He’s the best returner. I wonder if Novak has the fitness to keep up with this super fit Australian. Hope this isn’t a 5 set match.

    Nole up 3-0. whew.

    Reply

    • Oh hello dear MA. I just need a shoulder to lean my aching head on. If you are watching this, I’ll try to stay up but it’s pretty monotonous compared to Rafa v Thiem last night. sigh….

      Reply

      • That’s okay RC!…Honestly,i don’t think Millman can hurt Nole…He can win against Roger coz Roger was not well at that time[tho,i applaud Millman mental strength & bravery too]…But Nole is a different beast…Don’t worry too much k?I predict Nole to the final,and i will stick by it RC!….He’s a different Nole now u know…..

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  40. Millman is wearing down my man, Nole. sheesh. Federer won the first set but Millman wore Fed down with this muscular, bone crushing, lung burning, fast paced grinding tennis.

    Jelena looks tired, I”m tired. It’s hard to watch for a Nole fan. Millman is a ball machine. The crowd seems to like it. Best of luck Nole. Hope you win. I’m too tired for this.

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  42. This match is a “Test of Endurance, heat endurance & Will Power match”.

    You know who wins these kind of matches?lol

    May the fittest player win today!

    Reply

        • We are talking about the slams, who cares about the WTF? RG is supposed to be slow but they had quickened the clay court there too. They probably want to make it easier for players to transition from clay to grass as there’re practically not much time for players to get used to grass from clay.

          They slowed down the grass to prevent the 1990s servefeast repeating itself in the current era. With players being bigger and taller, hitting with more power esp with the help of modern string technology, the servefest (if they’re there again) would be even more unbearable! And I doubt Fed would be winning 8 Wimbledon.

          Reply

          • Not that it doesn’t suit Fed, but it favors the big servers/hard hitters even more! Imagine Fed vs Cilic on fast grass! Cilic would have the advantage given how Fed struggled vs Cilic in 2016 Wimbledon 2016. Perhaps even Berdych would have a chance for a Wimbledon title, Roddick too with one or two!

          • Nah, you only felt that it’s faster just because Fed won it! And, Fed was struggling through practically all his matches except the final when he faced a green horn in the final. So much for it being quicker!

            RG was getting quicker through the years, not only 2009, it’s from 2009 onwards!!

          • Even Sampras would struggle then .He must have been in a weak era without many big servers/hitters.
            Sounds like the grass goat was really Borg,playing in the era of really fast grass and bad bounces.

          • Big Al, Sampras didn’t need to face the new string technology on fast grass, and he himself was without the new string technology, if he had he might even be more lethal with his serve!

          • Big Al likes to cherry pick his data that fits his preformed conclusion and dismiss nonconforming data.

            (The 2009 fastest clay comment was epic – Joey Blow would bow to you for that one though.)

            #SelectiveBiasIsEverywhere

          • Reading all the above,it’s clearly meant to devalue Feds GOAT status based on his Slam count (don’t mention the WTF)
            All I did was say the US open was slower than it used to be.

          • Big Al, all I said at the start of all these was that the AO was quickened, so it’s fair and square, when one was slowed down, the other was quickened. You yourself started mentioning RG and Wimbledon, I don’t see why! And, if Wimbledon was being slowed down, the RG clay was quickened, so it’s not always ‘the courts get slowed down through the years’ as many would want to believe.

            Ask yourself, what’s your intention of the comment:’ The fastest I’ve seen RG was 2009 and we all know what happened then’?

    • Lucky, I said the US was slower , not a reference to any player . You pointed out the AO was faster, which seemed to me to refer to Federers recent success there, and his recent non-success at the US , which has slowed down since he last won it.So, I pointed out the situation at the other majors and the YEC , just for completeness.

      Your dismissal of the YEC from the discussion,for reasons I don’t need to elaborate, made me sure you were in Fedal comparison mode, and your comment that you doubted Fed would win 8 Wimbys was a trigger point for my RG comment. Maybe Rafa wouldn’t have won 11 RGs if the clay had been as fast in 2004- 2009 .Maybe he would.

      Maybe Roger Wouldn’t have won the YEC if it had been on clay , or all those Dubai/Cinci titles if it hadnt been on a fast hard court.

      Ill leave injuries out of this.

      Roger in 2009 RG, you say he didn’t play that well to win, but not the point, he deserved a bit of luck having lost only to Nadal the previous four years.

      Reply

      • Lucky, why did you make the comment ‘its all fair and square’ ? I never said it wasn’t just said the US was slower than it used to be .

        Reply

        • Why can’t I make that comment? Since you can say the USO court is slower now, I can just add that the AO court is quicker now, so it balances everything at the HC slams, so it’s fair.

          I’ve never challenged that the USO court isn’t slower than before; this year its slower probably because of the humidity.

          Reply

        • And, you’re simply over sensitive. I’m not bothered with Fed winning or not winning the AO or the USO; I don’t see why you need to bring in the RG and Wimbledon, we’re here talking about the HC slams!

          In fact it’s the Fed fans who argued that Rafa won the USO because it was slowed down through the years! Strange that Rafa who’s supposed to be good on slow courts, only won the AO once, so that dismissed the idea that Rafa can only win on slow courts.

          And WTF or YEC aren’t slams, so really don’t see why you need to bring that in, all because you want to prove Fed’s greatness I suppose?

          Reply

        • What has this conversation got to do with Rafa winning the FOs? Anyway, the clay now is quicker than before and Rafa is still winning there, so I don’t see the point that Rafa won’t win during 2005-2008 when Rafa was even quicker and stronger back then.

          Reply

          • Actually I wasn’t talking about any other Slam ,it’s the US we’re talking about. It’s the semis of the last major of the year,should just enjoy it and leave comparisons with other Slams until it’s over.

  48. Ballboys/girls r soooo helpful!….All of them!….R they got payed for working at USO?I wish top players especially the winner give something to them as an appreciation…For example give them a simple treat to Pizza restaurant @ McD…It’s sure can make them feel appreciated & happy….And i especially ballboys/girls at USO coz they’re so efficient…Kudos to all of them…

    Reply

  52. Actually I wasn’t talking about any other Slam ,it’s the US we’re talking about. It’s the semis of the last major of the year,should just enjoy it and leave comparisons with other Slams until it’s over.

    Reply

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