Toronto R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Wawrinka, Zverev vs. Medvedev

Top seed Rafael Nadal will resume his Toronto campaign when he goes up against familiar foe Stan Wawrinka on Thursday. Second-seeded Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev are also aiming for a place in the quarterfinals.

(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (WC) Stan Wawrinka

At No. 195 in the world due mostly to inactivity, Wawrinka needed a wild card to get into the Rogers Cup. He did not receive one initially, but Andy Murray’s withdrawal opened the door for Wawrinka to snag a WC and he has made the most of his opportunity so far. The 33-year-old booked a spot in the last 16 by outlasting Nick Kyrgios and Marton Fucsovics in three-set thrillers, improving to just 8-11 for his abbreviated 2018 campaign.

Wawrinka’s reward is a 20th career contest against Nadal, who is dominating the head-to-head series 16-3 heading into Thursday. The two veterans have not faced each other since the 2017 French Open final, in which Nadal cruised 6-2, 6-3, 6-1 for his 10th of 11 titles at Roland Garros. Nothing suggests Wawrinka will be able to turn the tide in Toronto; not even on a surface that is more favorable for him than clay in this particular matchup. Whereas the Swiss is struggling, Nadal is an awesome 36-3 this year and he looked comfortable in his return to hard courts with a 6-2, 6-3 rout of Benoit Paire on Wednesday night. This is a showdown that looks intriguing on paper, but on the court an in-form world No. 1 should completely crush a fatigued Wawrinka.

Pick: Nadal in 2 losing 8 games or fewer

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Daniil Medvedev vs. (2) Alexander Zverev

Zverev and Medvedev will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers on Thursday. All three of their previous meetings have gone Zverev’s way, but Medvedev was competitive for the first time earlier this season in Miami–where a second-round showdown resulted in a 6-4, 1-6, 7-6(5) thriller. A third-set tiebreaker is also what befell Medvedev in Toronto on Wednesday night (and into Thursday morning), when he outlasted Canadian hope Felix Auger-Aliassime 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(7) after trailing 4-1 in the third set and also 4-1 in the ‘breaker. The 22-year-old Russian preceded that success with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 defeat of Jack Sock.

Both players are in the midst of their best seasons on tour. Medevev’s 2018 campaign is highlighted by his first career title in Sydney, while Zverev boasts a 43-11 record that has him up to No. 3 in the world. The 21-year-old German captured a second straight Washington, D.C. title last weekend and he maintained his fine form by disposing of qualifier Bradley Klahn 6-4, 6-4 on Wednesday. Zverev is showing no signs of slowing down and Medvedev may not be 100 percent following his second-round slugfest, so this should be straightforward.

Pick: Zverev in 2

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22 Comments on Toronto R3 previews and predictions: Nadal vs. Wawrinka, Zverev vs. Medvedev

  1. Hey hey hey Nny!!….Evening to u!!…Oh!…Don’t worry!Rafa will have plenty of chance to break Stan later & he will BREAK him..Insyallah…Rafa is a very patient man…He just waiting a right moment…

  2. Stan becomes “the man” when seeing Rafa on the other side of the net! Stan is playing well and Rafa did great to save those break points. Very close match so far! Did not forsee this! I thought Stan would have some fitness issues and would come out tired after two three-setters…

    Great match so far! Too bad the rain interrupts it…

  3. I don’t think Rafa is playing well compared to yesterday. His shots are short and his ROS isn’t as good. He’s giving Stan so much space to impose his hard hitting game. Well at least Rafa serves well enough to save those BPs when he’s down 0-40 in his service game.

    I notice Rafa is slow in running to cover his FH corner, as a result he mistimed his FH and hitting his FH shot into the net often. I don’t know how Rafa can correct that, perhaps it’ll always be a weakness from now on, now that he’s no longer that quick around the court when he gets older.

  4. I had a feeling Stan would come out and see Rafa and play really well. But Rafa needs to take advantage of three break points to win the set.

    Who knows when they are going to finish this match.

    • Exactly! I think the best thing to do is to get the break right at the beginning of the match when the opponent hasn’t settled into the match yet. Rafa didn’t do that in Stan’s first service game when he had BP chances; now he would have a hard time winning the first set when Stan served so well.

      I really dislike Rafa’s mentality when he starts his matches, always adopt a wait and see attitude instead of imposing the more aggressive part of his game right from the start. Against hard hitting opponents and against Djoko, he needs to impose his game on them right away instead of doing all the counter punching work!

      Against players on the comeback – Djoko and Stan – Rafa is simply giving them ‘encouragement’ to return to form quicker when they play against him! He’s simply not taking advantage of the situation and allows them to play the best they can to beat him! If it’s Fed they’re playing against, I’m sure Fed would hammer them into submission instead of allowing them to boss him around!

      When you’re a world no.1, please show us that you’re the world no.1, and you should be bossing players around, esp those on the comeback trail!

      • Lucky,

        You just said exactly what I am thinking! You expressed my frustration. Rafa had the chance to break Stan in his first service game. But he didn’t do it. Then Stan got more confident in the match and played better. If Rafa had broken him early then he would have been playing from behind. He might have had more doubts with his recent losses. Then he has theee set points and does not get it done. He is giving Stan confidence when he cannot convert break points. Now he has to battle it out fir the first set, and the rain delay.

        I just do not understand it.

  5. I am so happy to just see Stan actually competing again and looking like his old self. I just want the guy back to his best. I think he’s getting there, he just needs to keep getting these matches in so his body gets used to it. Overall, I would say he is healthy enough to make a run in NYC if he can stay consistent in the early rounds.

  6. This year,multiple times rain break gave Rafa a chance to regrouped & came out on top..i hope today it’s going to be the same…And i also think the toll of playing 2 tough 3 setter B2B will showing for Stan soon…

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