Only two seeds remain in the top half of the Toronto draw, and they will square off in an intriguing quarterfinal on Friday. It’s Rafael Nadal vs. Marin Cilic, with the winner to meet either Karen Khachanov or Robin Haase in the semis.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (WC) Stan Wawrinka
Nadal and Cilic will be facing each other for the eighth time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot at the Rogers Cup on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at a somewhat modest 5-2 in favor of Nadal, but one of his losses came via retirement (in the fifth set at this year’s Australian Open) and the other was back in 2009. In his five victories, four of which have come on hard courts, the top-ranked Spaniard is 11-1 in total sets against Cilic.
Cilic appears to be running into a fully fit Nadal this time around, as the 32-year-old is 19-1 in his last 20 matches with a loss only to Novak Djokovic in a five-set semifinal thriller at Wimbledon during this stretch. Showing no signs of slowing down in his first hard-court event since the Aussie Open, Nadal thrashed Benoit Paire 6-2, 6-3 in his Toronto opener before holding off an improved Stan Wawrinka 7-5, 7-6(4) on Thursday night. Cilic booked his place in the last eight by beating Borna Coric in three sets and Diego Schwartzman in straights. The seventh-ranked Croat obviously wields the firepower with which hit Nadal off the court, but a lack of consistency has been an issue for Cilic in 2018 and he will likely fall victim to too many balls coming back–and coming back with heavy topspin–from Nadal’s side of the court.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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Robin Haase vs. Karen Khachanov
Both of Haase’s two career ATP titles have come in Kitzbuhel, but the Rogers Cup is quickly becoming his second favorite tournament (or third, as he is also a two-time runner-up in Gstaad). The 39th-ranked Dutchman made a semifinal run last summer in Montreal and he is through to the quarters this time around in Toronto following straight-set victories over Kei Nishikori, Mikhail Youzhny, and Denis Shapovalov.
Up next for Haase on Friday is a first-ever showdown against Khachanov, who also has not surrendered a single set this week. The 22-year-old Russian beat Filip Krajinovic, Pablo Carreno Busta, and John Isner en route to the last eight, winning each of his last three sets in tiebreakers. Khachanov has been solid but unspectacular in 2018, with plenty of victories but none over anyone in the top 15 since Halle more than a year ago. This should be every bit as competitive as the rankings suggest (Khachanov is one spot ahead of his opponent at No. 38), but a slight edge goes to Haase based on current form and his obvious confidence at this particular event.
Pick: Haase in 3
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