Only two seeds remain in the top half of the Toronto draw, and they will square off in an intriguing quarterfinal on Friday. It’s Rafael Nadal vs. Marin Cilic, with the winner to meet either Karen Khachanov or Robin Haase in the semis.
(1) Rafael Nadal vs. (WC) Stan Wawrinka
Nadal and Cilic will be facing each other for the eighth time in their careers when they battle for a semifinal spot at the Rogers Cup on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at a somewhat modest 5-2 in favor of Nadal, but one of his losses came via retirement (in the fifth set at this year’s Australian Open) and the other was back in 2009. In his five victories, four of which have come on hard courts, the top-ranked Spaniard is 11-1 in total sets against Cilic.
Cilic appears to be running into a fully fit Nadal this time around, as the 32-year-old is 19-1 in his last 20 matches with a loss only to Novak Djokovic in a five-set semifinal thriller at Wimbledon during this stretch. Showing no signs of slowing down in his first hard-court event since the Aussie Open, Nadal thrashed Benoit Paire 6-2, 6-3 in his Toronto opener before holding off an improved Stan Wawrinka 7-5, 7-6(4) on Thursday night. Cilic booked his place in the last eight by beating Borna Coric in three sets and Diego Schwartzman in straights. The seventh-ranked Croat obviously wields the firepower with which hit Nadal off the court, but a lack of consistency has been an issue for Cilic in 2018 and he will likely fall victim to too many balls coming back–and coming back with heavy topspin–from Nadal’s side of the court.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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Robin Haase vs. Karen Khachanov
Both of Haase’s two career ATP titles have come in Kitzbuhel, but the Rogers Cup is quickly becoming his second favorite tournament (or third, as he is also a two-time runner-up in Gstaad). The 39th-ranked Dutchman made a semifinal run last summer in Montreal and he is through to the quarters this time around in Toronto following straight-set victories over Kei Nishikori, Mikhail Youzhny, and Denis Shapovalov.
Up next for Haase on Friday is a first-ever showdown against Khachanov, who also has not surrendered a single set this week. The 22-year-old Russian beat Filip Krajinovic, Pablo Carreno Busta, and John Isner en route to the last eight, winning each of his last three sets in tiebreakers. Khachanov has been solid but unspectacular in 2018, with plenty of victories but none over anyone in the top 15 since Halle more than a year ago. This should be every bit as competitive as the rankings suggest (Khachanov is one spot ahead of his opponent at No. 38), but a slight edge goes to Haase based on current form and his obvious confidence at this particular event.
Pick: Haase in 3
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who ya got?
Nadal in 3 Haase in 2
both in 3
Rafa and Khachanov in three.
Haase and Rafa in two
Karen Khachanov was too solid for Robin Haase. Straight set win for the Russian.
Rafa in 2, I’d guess. But Cilic…nah, Rafa in 2.
Nadal has a better chance of beating Cilic here. I was mighty impressed with Tsitsipas comprehensive win over Novak … http://www.138mph.com/rogers-cup-tennis-stefanos-tsitsipas-game-seems-better-rounded-and-more-aggressive-than-novak-djokovics/
Be focused, be confident, be strong, Rafa!
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DkQU1AyXgAAPZDp.jpg
Ricky, your heading says to your prediction says: Nadal vs Wawrinka.
Rafa getting a pasting at Cilic’s hands at the moment
rafa getting destroyed atm
Cilic seems to be in god mode today. Not seen since USO 2014
That’s true – have not seen Cilic dominate this way since USO 2014. But can he sustain it?
I underestimated Cilic. He’s about to win the first set.
Cilic has peaked two tournaments early 😀
haha…maybe. Right now I don’t believe my eyes.
Never underestimate Cilic, esp on HC (and grass).Rafa is shell shocked. Cilic is capable of in the zone tennis so often against anyone – he got a set 6-1 from Djoko v2 at IW one year. When he’s in the zone, you just have to let him be and then play better to weather the storm when he slowly gets out of zone.
Rafa doesn’t help himself with such poor first serve, and he’s hitting the ball short so Cilic could pounce on it at will. Rafa has to serve better, and varies the pace of the ball perhaps slicing the ball and not feeding Cilic with consistent pace.
Dang. I’m out right now, unable to watch but it sounds like Cilic is redlining. I’m happy for him to be playing at a high level after the disappointment of Wimbledon. Let’s hope Rafa comes back so we can have another tight three setter. Seems like we’ve gotten many of those this week and it’s made for a really exciting tournament.
Gosh, Marin celebrates the first set like he has just won the GS title! That is how much this means to him. Rafa not playing well, 1st serve % as low as 49% isn’t going to work against Cilic. Cilic playing faster, taking the ball early and hitting through Nadal clearly a winning formula tonight vs this Rafa who tends to make uncharacteristic errors on top of all…Rafa should slice Cilic more to slow him down and Ciilic doesn’t cope well with slices both Fed and Nole proved that when beating Cilic..,and Rafa should not rally with Cilic! Cilic is clearly way faster than Rafa tonight. Rafa a bit slow and lacking power..,
Vamos Champ!
I think Lucky is right. Cilic has taken the racket out of Rafa’s hands in this match. Rsfa must serve better. The ESPN commies mentioned his serve. Rafa came out so flat and Cilic was red hot.
So far in the second set Rafa seems to be serving better and holding his own. Not able to make a dent in Cilic’s serve.
nice rafa breaks to love
now facing 2 BPs
he erased both 😮
cant believe that shot by Cilic was out
Rafa must hold serve here.
Rafa has to serve better, when he gets his first serve in, he usually wins the point. See, two first serve in a row he wins to get back to deuce.
Come on, Rafa please serve properly!!
He came up with a rocket serve, Rafa did. Rafa wins the mental fight every time. The shock of the first set is gone.
Rafa living dangerously, very much dependent on how well he serves his first serves! Come on Rafa, hold serve to win the second set so that we can have a match.
Whew! That was a tough hold!
Serve stats posted –
Rafa
1st set
1st serve % – 49%
2nd serve points won – 33%
Service points won – 51%
2nd set
1st serve points won % – 63%
2nd serve points won – 56%
Service points won – 67%
If I had any, my money would be on Rafa. Wondering now if Cilic can hold serve. lol
I can’t watch Rafa serving for the second set.
Really dumb by Rafa! Why always CC to Cilic’s BH, time and again??
Things not looking good for Rafa, he’s not serving well and gets punished!
Oh dear. Vamos Rafa! Get this set.
Oh ho ho…Cilic and that overhead
Rafa is so close to getting this set right now. Cilic has to be a bit rattled.
That ended up working fine. Gets to serve first in the third 🙂
That had to be frustrating for Cilic — how he nearly came back but lost it.
Phew! Rafa really living dangerously but fortunately he survived the second set! Now we have a match! Vamos Rafa, again serve well please to win this.
interesting rafa didnt approach the net at all second set….anyone feel like rafas net game is underrated? i feel like it always bails him out when he needs it (not talking about this match..)
Rafa regrouped and played way better in the second, hitting deeper and with more power and serving better! Good job!
Vamos Champ!
Cilic lost the rhythm on his serve. I think he got tight. Rafa took advantage.
I am exhausted already.
Rafa serves well to start the third set. He steps inside the court after his serve and I think that should work for him, at least rushes Cilic a bit, taking time away from Cilic. He must control the court at least during his own service game.
“Cilic and Zverev are mentally weak.”
– Capt. Obvious
Anyone game yet …
Rafa has a brutal draw in Cincy. Raonic in his opening match followed by Nole in his next.
Federer has a cupcake draw. He has the walking wounded in his draw: Wawrinka, Murray, Nishikori, Delpo and Kyrgios. Does Federer ever get a tough draw?
Rafa does not play Nole till Quarter Finals, till his third match . Raonic should not be too tough though. He looks average this summer.
Side note: Elina Svitolina and Elise Mertens have been playing some great tennis.
Elina wins but that was a good match.
Cilic drives me crazy. This match is a good example of why I’ve come to underestimate and doubt him. He can get in the zone, but he just can’t stay there — at least not with Rafa across the net. And he has trouble v Fed and Nole, too.
The umpire is so incompetent!! Very bad line calls as well! Rafa should challenge more, he was robbed a couple of times…
Come on Rafa, please break serve here to win the match! Vamos!!
GOAT.
Congrats to me.
LOL yes, I agree right now, hawkbert. GOAT
Congrats to hawkstradamus! 👍
Sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet!!!
GSM, Rafa 26 64 64
Cilic looked shell shocked when he lost. When he was dominating the 1st set he thought he had it in the bag.
So true, nadline! That is where his egocentric celebration came from! Lack of taste! Something similar we witnessed in their AO match! So glad Rafa sent him packing!
Rafa did it! Wow! He won!
😀
Yessss! Vamoooossss! Brilliant and brave Rafa! Kept believing and employing variety of game with drop shots to trick already tired Cilic! So proud of Rafa beating imploding Cilic at his favorite surface!
GSM Nadal!
Vamos Champ!
This was a sweet one after Rafa had to withdraw with the hip injury at the AO. I will never forgive Cilic for celebrating.
Yep, me too!
Love how Rafa has added a great drop shot to his game since Wimby. He’s always had it but he’s using if more frequently and effectively.
(Scoot’s two picks are on their way to Cincy.)
#DefinitelyNotRafa
#RememberHerbert
Yes, you make a good point about drop shot. I would say I first saw this against DelPo in Roland Garros. I thought he was testing DelPo after his long QF , but the drop shots were so sublime that day that they would have tested even the fastest player.
That drop shot was a success was confirmed when Rafa tested Nole in Wimby and Nole is one of the fastest athletes. Noone can forget 5-5 point in third set tie-break where Rafa came up with a brave drop shot and in fifth set on match point as well on BH side.
He has been coming up with dropshots on FH wing most of the times and I have’nt seen any one of these overcooked. Just goes to show a little variety can go a long way in keepoing the opponent on the hook.
I like Rafa’s win today. Cilic started very well. Rafa was ordinary in first set. But in the third set Rafa just was very solid and he was the one who was creating chances.
Rafa vs Hasse in SF. Even though the Dutchman is on a roll, but its still a relatively easy SF given that its almost a Grand Slam field in Masters1000.
Very goo opportunity for Rafa to tighten his game before US Open since
No, it’s Karen Kachanov v Rafa SF. Robin Haase was terrible
#HaaseBeen
hahahhaaaaaaase
Why, haase he ever got this far in a big tourney before?
At least the other Haas-been made several successful comebacks.
Yes! Rafa breaks serve, and takes the match on the third MP! Congrats and well done Rafa, edges past a red hot Cilic narrowly.
So happy for him. Well done to Cilic too for playing so well, he’s just not consistently good during a match, too up and down. Rafa may be meeting Cilic again at Cincy SF should both get there.
Rafa beating Cilic who serves so well, will bode well for him in the SF vs Khachanov (who hardly lost his serve this tournament) and one of Anderson or Tsitsipas who are also big servers.
It’s a tough draw here and at Cincy but should Rafa navigate past his opponents here to win the title, he should be ready for the tough road ahead at Cincy, where he may be meeting Raonic, Shapo/Edmund, Djoko, Cilic in his half of the draw, certainly not an easy one for a no. 1 player!
Rafa said it himself, tough match(es) like the one against Stan yesterday would make him feel confident when he won the match; it certainly helped him, I feel, vs Cilic today, when he could hang in tough to weather the storm despite being outplayed and overpowered in the first set.
Vamos Rafa, onwards you go, get that winner’s trophy!!
Yeah, well done Rafa, but at least you also give some credit to Cilic , not just the ususal ‘Rafa takes time to figure his opponent out’ . He does indeed win lots of matches by simply weathering the storm .
It’s obvious that Cilic was playing very well in the first set. When Cilic is in the zone, no one beat him ( in the set) as this match and his match vs Djoko at IW one year have shown. It’s just that he rarely is able to sustain that for a whole match, the USO match vs Fed in 2014 was more an exception than the norm.
And, that’s why I predicted Rafa in three sets, not two.
Weathering the storm is not that simple. Rafa’s point by point mentality helps, of course. So does his belief that the opponent’s level will drop at some point and then he can pounce. It makes Rafa a very exciting player to watch!
I agree. Weathering the storm is not easy. Other players would lose hope and give up, but not Rafa. He has such a will to win and determination. He hung in there and started playing better and Cilic’s level started to drop and Rafa had his chances.
You can see Rafa’s mind working out there. He stays positive and changes tactics and strategy. He is amazing to watch.
Yes, its very difficult to keep up the level up over a long match .I actually picked Rafa to win the tournament, head over heart.
This is probably one of the most important victories for Rafa , this year after his important wins in French Open and Wimby. He was playing a red hot Cilic who looked fresh and hungry. Rafa was little rusty . He was overpowered in the first set. Cilic had breakpoints in 4 out of first 5 Rafa’s service games.
Rafa just hung tough. Thats it. He would say he resisted and tried to come up with the solution which he has been doing all his life.
Accumulating points gives Rafa the lee-way to keep a fair distance from World number 2 and he can afford to skip tournaments in the year end. I believe Rafa is slowly moving to the philosophy that he wants to prolong the career. He is taking breaks now, and he is coming to these non-GS tourneys with the belief that he would find his form while navigating thru the draw. I think its the right approach. He did that in Wimby and so far here in Toronto.
I wont worry too much about Cincy since its very difficult to do well in back to back tourneys . Even Roger and Djoker have never been ale to win these tourneys back to back as this is even more tricky than getting a Sunshine Double. Rafa achieved this feat in 2013 but its too difficult a stretch now for anyone.
Rafa should have an easier time of it with Khachanov. I am worn out from the last two matches. Rafa is just gutting it out and winning with sheer will power.
Actually Rafa won not because of will power (only) as he’s the better player in both matches. He’s better than Cilic in set two and three, whilst Cilic was obviously better in set one. He’s using his guile, his court craft and varieties to win his matches when his opponents were serving big and hitting hard.
I think the slower conditions in Toronto helped both Tsisipas and Nadal, they were able to return the flatter shots of their opponent.