Tokyo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Paire

Stan 2This is not the final many expected, as fan favorite Kei Nishikori stumbled with the title match almost in his grasp. Instead it will be Benoit Paire going up against Stan Wawrinka on Sunday in Tokyo.

Great friends and occasional doubles partners Benoit Paire and Stan Wawrinka will be facing each other for the sixth time in their careers and for the second time this season when they battle for the Rakuten Japan Open title on Sunday afternoon.

Wawrinka is leading the head-to-head series 4-1, but only their first encounter and their most recent meeting were one-way traffic in the Swiss’ favor. Paire’s lone victory came via a 6-2, 7-6(2) decision at the 2013 Rogers Cup before Wawrinka restored order with a 4-6, 6-3, 7-6(2) win in the same round (second) of the same event (but this time in Toronto instead of Montreal) in 2014. Wawrinka cruised 6-2, 6-3 earlier this year on the indoor hard courts of Marseille.

Fast forward eight months and Paire is a healthier and far more confident player. In fact, it could be argued that this is not even the same Paire. The Frenchman’s resurgence to No. 32 in the world (he will be at least 24th on Monday) reached new heights with a five-set upset of Kei Nishikori at the U.S. Open, where he eventually advanced to the fourth round. Paire stunned Nishikori again on Saturday in Tokyo, overcoming the title favorite 1-6, 6-4, 6-2. It was Paire’s fourth consecutive three-setter, having previously survived Grigor Dimitrov, Marcos Baghdatis, and Nick Kyrgios.
Paire
Wawrinka has enjoyed a friendlier draw throughout the week; one that has resulted in relatively routine trek to the final. The world No. 4 has taken out Radek Stepanek, Tatsuma Ito, Austin Krajicek, and Gilles Muller while surrendering just one set to Ito in the process.

With an 11-1 record in his last 12 matches, Wawrinka is obviously still in fine form in the aftermath of his second career Grand Slam title at the French Open. Still, he will have to raise his level when he faces his fifth consecutive unseeded opponent this week. If Paire keeps this up, he will represent a huge step up in competition from Wawrinka’s previous four adversaries.

Based on how this Tokyo event has unfolded, it would only be appropriate to conclude with a three-setter in Paire’s favor.

Pick: Paire in 3

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14 Comments on Tokyo final preview and pick: Wawrinka vs. Paire

  1. I’ve just posted my prediction on the Bejiing SF thread because that was where the Tokyo poll appeared. I hadn’t spotted this thread. I do hope Ricky’s choice prevails.

  2. Taking Stan in straights. I have a lot of faith in Stan at this point in the tournament and Paire will be more fatigued than Stan by far. Still Paire could score upset considering they always have tough matches and have had success against each other. I’m gonna take Stan to power through though. Either way I’d be happy if Stan won and happy for Paire too. All in all though, ALLEZ STAN!!

  3. stan has had a good draw here in Tokyo so I think he will take advantage of that, but it would be nice to see Paire take it considering the players he’s taken out along the way

  4. I am going with Stan in 3 sets. I still cannot believe that Nishi lost that match. No disrespect intended to Paire, who hung in there and didn’t quit. But Nishi had his chances to close it out in straight sets. Paire has been doing really well. Good for him.

    I just think that Stan will have enough game to win this final.

  5. My prediction was spot on.

    Hope the hopelessly wayward Benoit will continue to make progress now he has discovered it’s possible to string consecutive wins together. He is such fun to watch

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