Novak Djokovic, who would be the favorite, is probably out. World No. 2 Alexander Zverev is definitely out. Rafael Nadal has played only one match since Wimbledon. Daniil Medvedev has won just one tournament the entire year. Yes, the U.S. Open is wide open.
At some majors in the Big 3 era, literally a grand total of three guys–Nadal, Djokovic, and Roger Federer, of course–had any hope to win. For the upcoming 2022 U.S. Open, however, a whole host of players can say they have realistic title aspirations.
Here is my list of players who have a non-zero chance to triumph in New York.
Great chance
Daniil Medvedev – The world No. 1 is the defending champion and is well rested. According to the odds, Medvedev is a huge favorite.
Rafael Nadal – When you’re the only one of the Big 3 in the field, you are always among the top favorites.
Best of the rest
Carlos Alcaraz – Alcaraz made a run to the quarterfinals last summer and he is a much different player now. The Spaniard was awesome on American hard courts this spring.
Stefanos Tsitsipas – Tsitsipas is a major finalist and after playing well in Cincinnati it would not be a surprise to see him take the next step.
Very realistic chance
Felix Auger-Aliassime – Talent-wise, Auger-Aliassime is among the game’s elite. When will he string together seven good matches in a row? Why not now?
Hubert Hurkacz – Hurkacz was the 2021 Miami champion and the recent Montreal runner-up. Now it’s time for him to step up at a slam.
Taylor Fritz – Fritz has been one of the tour’s best players this season. He loves playing at home in the USA and he loves big stages. There is nothing not to like.
Jannik Sinner – Sinner is an amazing 38-11 this year. If not for some injuries, he would be in the top 10. The Italian is more than capable of powering his way to the title.
Nick Kyrgios – With a runner-up showing at Wimbledon, a title in Washington, D.C., and a quarterfinal run in Montreal, Kyrgios has never played better. When he is healthy and motivated, watch out.
Small chance…but a chance
Andrey Rublev – In 2020 and 2021, Rublev was right there in the group behind Nadal and Djokovic. He has fallen off a bit, but his forehand alone keeps him in the discussion.
Casper Ruud – Ruud has debunked the myth that he is a clay-court specialist. Although a hard-court slam title is unlikely, it’s possible.
Cameron Norrie – The lefty has proven that his 2021 Indian Wells triumph was no fluke. He is a legitimate top-10 player.
Matteo Berrettini – If not for his sudden Covid-19 case and subsequent absence, Berrettini would be near the top. If he can get a few matches under his belt, the real Berrettini could be on display in week two.
Pablo Carreno Busta – You may not remember, but Carreno Busta is a two-time U.S. Open semifinalist. He also just won the Montreal Masters. This guy is the real deal on hard courts.
Marin Cilic – Although 2014 was a while ago, you can’t take away the fact that Cilic is a U.S. Open champion. When he catches fire (albeit rarely now), he can still produce one of the tour’s best levels.
Borna Coric – Coric completely dominated in Cincinnati, losing only one set (to Nadal) en route to the title. Ranked No. 152 at the time, he will be seeded in New York.
Stranger things have happened
John Isner – On any given day, Isner can still take the racket out of anyone’s hands.
Tommy Paul – Paul has played several matches this season at a top-5 level and he is always at his best on American hard courts.
Grigor Dimitrov – The Grand Slam window has probably closed for Dimitrov, but a miracle late-career run to a title isn’t entirely out of the question.
Denis Shapovalov – Similar to Dimitrov, Shapovalov’s natural talent level is such that he could win from out of nowhere.
Alex de Minaur – De Minaur would need a great draw because he doesn’t have the firepower to beat top players. In a depleted field, a great draw is possible.
Karen Khachanov – This is a guy who has a Masters 1000 title and an Olympic silver medal. He can’t be completely counted out on the big stage.
thoughts?
Ricky, that is a very interesting piece đ.
Anyway, Iâm hoping at least Rafa goes deep as Iâll be going to the Open. Iâll miss the first few matches but I would be happy to see Rafa play at least one or two matches!
Tennis is so strange anything can happen. With Novak out and Rafaâs fitness in question, many of the players will become inspired. It will be very interesting!
By the by, is anyone else going to the Open? Who else is going to be there?!
Enjoy the USO, Monalisa. Hope you get to see Rafa.
The courts are faster since Rafa last win in 2019.
How is this going to affect him? How fast is the court compared with the one at the AO?
Rafa has not played on this court..however he will be practicing now on ashe for a week and twice daily at that.. Moya is there ,will guide him.
I am expecting something with the serve…some toolkit by surprise..
Im looking forward to it, esp if the courts are fast and low bouncing. The way it should be at the US Open.
Which is what Rafa likes.
Rafael Nadal: ‘I play better on fast than slow hard court’
JANUARY 7, 2020 22:40
by JOVICA ILIC
https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/Rafael_Nadal/82514/rafael-nadal-i-play-better-on-fast-than-slow-hard-court-/
It’s the bounce .The balls have a lot to do with it also.
And the altitude.Its quite complex really.
So which is faster: AO or USO?
Both are low bouncing courts.
It changes from year to year. The US summer hard courts were traditionally fast low bouncing and the AO used to have rebound ace.
But the past few years it’s probably been the other way round ,its hard to be sure.
Well I thought that the last few years AO was faster! If that’s the case Rafa has beaten Med on a faster court than the one at the USO so I don’t know why, apart from ?? over injury, he is not the favourite? He is 5-1 in the hth with Med.( Med’s game is better suited to beat Novak than it is to beat Rafa!)
I am quite confused tbh…
Ricky, I don’t think would Djokovic have been the favourite. He’s won it once in the last 6 years, he’s 1:2 h2h there against Rafa and he’s got 3 titles. Rafa has 4 titles and he’s won 2 out the last 3 times he’s played it. The only one he didn’t win, he pulled out injured in the SF against Delpo in 2018.
Djokovic lost the in the final in straight sets against Medvedev last year.
Rafa has been more sucesssful at the USO than Djokovic.
Rafa has proven himself at the USO. I hope he gets a decent draw. Tsitsipas is too inconsistent to win a slam right now. His record in finals has not been good. Meddy looked lousy against Tsitsipas. As the defending champion, he will need to play much better to repeat. I donât know if Alcaraz is ready to win a slam. Felix is not there yet. Same for Hurkacz.
Taylor Fritz has had the year I hoped he might have at some point. Itâs great to see him playing so well. I have been keeping my eye on him for a few years, hoping he would have a breakout year. I am not sure he is ready to win a slam but he is on the right track. Sinner has had too many injuries. We all know about Kyrgios. He is his biggest problem. He canât keep it together.
There can always be surprises at a slam. There are dark horses. Nothing is written in stone. I am looking forward to some outstanding tennis at the USO.
Finally Vamos Rafa!
Amy .let’s see Rafa play first 2 rounds then make a judgement..it’s pointless now as he is a qn mark due to the injury recovery and the court..the court part i think he will adjust as he will be practising for a week there ..
After what happ in wimby where I thought he would win n he caught an injury ,i just don’t want to get my hopes high..never know what’s up with him .I’m just hoping n wishing he gets 2 more n touches Margaret’s record of 24..post that if Novak overtakes it ,so be it…
I think that’s very sensible sanju! I know you were very upset about wimby so it’s probably best to be cautious in the early stages.
What will be will be..!
I do feel he will get to #24 at least..
OMG! Mole Farm are in complete meltdown and have come up with their new conspiracy theory. It’s a plot engineered by Federer!đđđđ
What can one say in relation to this utter nonsense?!
It’s not even a new low as they have been coming up with this stuff for ages now…linking to far right websites;coming up with deranged conspiracy theories.
Innocent photos of Fedal with Bill Gates are apparently evidence they engineered the whole pandemic to stop Novax winning slams…
It would be funny if it wasn’t scary in its level of utter derangement…
Well why ..they think bill gates owns CDC and Biden to not allow unvaccinated in the country ?
Novak has not withdrawn yet .they can rest till Sunday no for conspiracy theories. Till yest they were saying he should wait till the last minute
Hard not to call Nadal the favorite. He really does play quite well in New York…and I agree that I think it’s rather silly to assume that Djokovic would have been a shoo-in for the title if he could only have gotten in the country (friendly reminder that he COULD have gotten in the country the same way everyone else did).
Med has to be a second favorite. I don’t know about Alcaraz. Actually, I think I’m prepared to say that at this point, he’s not ready mentally. He’s…a bit delicate. Tsitsipas has traditionally played poorly in New York. I’d be more inclined to give the nod to PCB, I’ll be honest. Cilic maybe? Coric is one hell of a dangerous floater.
I dunno. Hard to see past Rafa and Med. Might also depend where Kyrgios lands, I suppose.
Felix can run anyone out of town if he gets in a groove where he cuts out all UEs, but that rarely happens. Coric is one player I wouldn’t write off, he makes very few errors which and he is quick around the court which puts pressure on his opponent. Medvedev’s game has too many holes in it; his serve is a big weapon but his all round game is lacking and he doesn’t move well. Fritz could be in the mix too but his natural movement is compromised. He often looks like he is about to trip himself up.
Rafa is the one with the most complete tool box and if he can get past the first couple of rounds he will be hard to beat. Fingers crossed that he stays injury free for the entire tournament.
I think PCB might be able to do something. I actually did not realize that he is a two time semi finalist at the USO. I am thinking that Med will get himself into decent form here. Kyrgios can be dangerous, but he is so emotionally unstable,
Sometimes a player can end up doing better than expected. I do nit think Novak would have been a favorite here. Sorry but the message should be clear by now that getting vaccinated is one way to ensure that you can play.
Now what is this news..another distraction for rafa…hope all is good
https://www.sportskeeda.com/amp/tennis/news-rafael-nadal-s-wife-maria-francisca-perello-admitted-clinic-mallorca-undergo-operation-soon?article-trending
I read aboit this on twitter! Hope everything is ok. Very disturbing news for Rafa. I really hope that Maria and the baby will be fine and under close watch of doctors. It is indeed a distraction for RafaâŚwishing them all the best!
That is very concerning news about Maria. I canât imagine how difficult it must be for Rafa. I wish them the best and hope that everything will be okay.
Rafa winning this. Itâs not Wide open. Plus, I will be there to support him. That seals the deal in his favor đ
Let’s face it it’s inevitable unless injury prevents him.
I find it fascinating that Kyrgios is currently tied with Medvedev at 17% in the poll, yet has never made it past the 3rd round at the USO (unlike multiple other choices.) Always that weird dissonance with Kyrgios between the promise and the history. (Not against him making a run or anything, and he’s certainly not too old to redefine his career, just amazed that his stock here rose that quickly.)
Kyrgios is like a mythical great champion. He hasn’t lived up to the hype that’s surrounded him since Wimbledon 2014 (8 years!) when he beat Rafa, but people feel his greatness is waiting to come out.
His bark is better than his bite, I think. Because he doesn’t train, he finds 7 rounds of BO5 hard going. But who knows?
The CDC travel guidelines have been updated and there is no change. That means Novak can’t play. So why hasn’t he withdrawn? In that big PR guided interview he gave he said he was prepared to miss tournaments because of his beliefs. But he didn’t withdraw before the IW draw and, as things stand, he hasn’t withdrawn before the USO draw. Sorry but this behaviour stinks and shows zero integrity. It’s the afternoon in Serbia! He should already have withdrawn.
I am getting really fed up with him again.
If you say you are prepared to miss tournaments because of your beliefs then play by the rules and withdraw in good time. He isn’t going to get entry into the USA!
Let’s give him till 9 am ET. He may well have have withdrawn but the USTA office hasn’t announced it yet. If he doesn’t do it before the draw, then that would be beyond selfish.
Is that when the draw is? That’s 2 in the afternoon here isn’t it? We are 5 hours ahead of NY.
I thought the draw was at 12 ET?
You are right to say we may not know. If he doesn’t withdraw I am going to lose my temper!đ
Yes the draw is at noon ET, but I expect the USTA office will be open by 9 am when they can announce a withdrawal by Novak if he withdraws.
Ok yes good point!
Amy..so have they categorically said all incoming people have to be vaccinated ? Usta will not seem exemption so what’s left ? Can’t usta take call to drop him if he does not. Its their slam, sure they have the right. They took the call to disqualify him in 2022
2020 typo
For the USTA to drop him they have to have proof that he won’t be there to play his first match but they can’t do that by hearsay. They should, probably, ask him since he is not yet at the venue.
Sanju, the updated CDC rules remain the same so he has to be vaccinated to get into the country.
I don’t know exactly what the rules are regarding removing someone from the draw. As I recall from the IW fiasco, the tournament can’t do that and the player has the right to remain in the draw even if they can’t play. It’s really absurd.
A reminder that at the AO:
Novak was intending to play without “knowing” that he would magically catch covid just at the right time. How did he know he would catch it?
according to his statement s in court that would have meant he infected a ton of people including a load of kids so he changed the dates of when he was infected contradicting his own courtroom testimony.
Numerous highly reputable journalistic outlets found.inconsistencies in the digital medical data for the test results suggesting they had been altered. Serbian authorities ” investigated “this and says they were fine which is absolutely reassuring coming from a corrupt fascist regime which manufactures narcotics and supports Putrid.
Otherwise everything is fine and dandy.đđđ
PS this is only a precis of all the many issues at that time..
I think the authorities turned a blind eye to many of the irregularities regarding Djokovic’s attempt to gain entry into Australia. He should count himself very fortunate.
I agree with this. The authorities in Australia should have dealt with this swiftly so as to avoid all the unnecessary drama and distraction. They never should have let him in the country in the first place. Then he had his high powered lawyers go to court and make it even more of a circus.
We might not know until the tennis starts.Its annoying,esp for those of us who do bracket challenges.
Djokovic can withdraw after the US Open finishes. It does not matter. He will be defaulted if he does not show up for 15 mins after the schedule start time of his round 1 match.
I donât know why there has to be all this drama with Novak. It is really disrespectful to the sport. Not that Novak seems to care. It is 10:00 am here in the states. There should have been something about him withdrawing. Why wait until the last minute all the time?
If he wants to stand up for his so-called principles, then let him do it. Withdraw!
Djokovic’s name was removed from the list, and half an hour later it was back on.
https://twitter.com/pavyg/status/1562611068769546240?s=20&t=1LW5vXbTOBP2sA9Hi9bQxw
Nadline this guy pavyg is the biggest nolefarm ambassador. He has no work but to tweet 24*7 about all conspiracy theories and rubbishing rafa n fed
He is a repellent very right wing nutcase anti vaxxer, pro Trumper and so on.
He is extremely stupid endlessly concocting ridiculous conspiracy theories about everything, especially Fedal who he hates.
All the big Mole Farm accounts are insane. It’s just a question of degree..
Where is this mole farm?Never seen it.
I did Google Nole Farm, there is a real place…
Haha! Mole Farm is Ramara’s witty invention so I am plagiarising her.
Where is Nole Farm?! It would be a good place to send the Mole Farm nutters to!