With the 2016 ATP World Tour campaign three weeks away, the Grandstand’s Ricky Dimon and Steen Kirby of Tennis Atlantic answer 10 intriguing questions in advance of the upcoming season.
1) Will Novak Djokovic dominate the ATP Tour again in 2016?
Ricky: Yes. To the extent that he did in 2015? Probably not, but he will still finish the year No. 1 by a wide margin. How wide will be determined by the clay-court swing–more specifically, by whether or not Rafael Nadal returns to his clay-court form of old. I will predict that Djokovic wins two majors, but I think he has a better chance of winning three than of winning one.
Steen: While I expect Roger Federer, Andy Murray, and a renewed Nadal (plus potentially Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka) to test him in slams and Masters, Djokovic is still in his prime and remains the most well-rounded, fittest player on tour. He’ll hold onto world No. 1 and win at least two majors, with a Grand Slam possible but not probable.
2) Will Djokovic win the elusive Roland Garros title?
Ricky: No–unless Nadal is less than 100 percent physically when the French Open rolls around. The Spaniard is already playing much better than he was throughout most of 2015 and he should be in peak form time for next spring. Nadal will win his 10th title there. And even if he doesn’t, it’s not like Djokovic would be lock. He got taken to five by Andy Murray this year and then lost to Stan Wawrinka.
Steen: Going to say no on this one. Nadal should be better if he can stay healthy and continue his end-of-season form from this year. Additionally, clay presents the best chance for Djokovic to get knocked out by another challenger. In all likelihood 2015 was his best shot at this title, and he came up short.
3) Will Djokovic win the calendar-year Grand Slam?
Ricky: No. Even if he wins the French (and the Australian), he will still have a long way to go. Throwing the Olympics into the mix–even though it doesn’t count toward the CYGS–doesn’t help. It will be hard for anyone to stay in absolute top mental and physical condition through so many huge tournaments in such a short time frame to win every single major title.
Steen: Referring to my answer on questions 1 and 2, no. Murray will have a shot at Wimbledon, along with Federer. Nadal and Wawrinka will have their chances on clay, and the hard-court majors could see an outsider such as Nishikori step up and win a slam, as well. Djokovic has a shot at three slams, but it would take luck to get all four.
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4) Among Federer, Nadal and Murray, who will finish above the others?
Ricky: Nadal. I saw enough positive things from him at the World Tour Finals to feel confident in a return to No. 2 in the world next season. The combination of a healthy Nadal and a boatload of clay-court tournaments on the schedule will be too much for anyone other than Djokovic to stop. Obviously this is contingent on his health–just as it would be for anyone else.
Steen: Nadal should return to the top 4, but Murray’s improvement on clay and Federer’s consistency should allow them to remain in some order of the 2 and 3 spots with Djokovic at No. 1. Scheduling will also have some impact, but I’ll go with Murray’s well-rounded game to get him to No. 2.
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5) Juan Martin Del Potro?
Ricky: I’m done making predictions on Del Potro. I’ll just be happy if he returns sometime in the first few months of 2016, stays relatively injury-free, and plays occasional tournaments–the last three slams, maybe a couple of Masters 1000s, and few other random events–throughout the year. Okay, whatever–I’ll at least make a not-so-bold prediction: Del Potro will finish in the top 100…but just barely.
Steen: He’s been out of the game for so long the rust factor along will mean it will take him half a season to acclimate to ATP-style tennis–and that’s if he can stay healthy and have some kind of a backhand. Del Potro surely is still a good power hitter, but a more limited version should result in a ranking outside the top 50. He could be an occasional factor in 250s and 500s, but not much else.
6) Who will have the better year: Nick Kyrgios or Jack Sock?
Ricky: “Better” in terms of being ranked higher? Kyrgios. Sock will be more consistent, but Kyrgios’ ceiling–at least right now–is higher. It would not be that shocking to see the Aussie reach another Grand Slam quarterfinal (or two) or even a semifinal. A Masters 1000 final also would not be too much of a surprise. Those kinds of big results will inflate his ranking. Sock also won’t helped by the fact that he will once again play a ton of doubles with Vasek Pospisil and try to make another run at the World Tour Finals.
Steen: Sock should have the better year due to his consistency and mental stability. Kyrgios has the talent and he’s clutch, but you never know when the wheels will come off and staying healthy could also be a concern. Sock has a more difficult schedule, but I see his steady improvement enough to give him a chance to challenge for the American No. 1 spot.
7) Will someone outside the Big 4 win a Grand Slam title? Or even reach a slam final?
Ricky: No. Definitely not a title and probably not even a final. Wawrinka proved he is no one-hit wonder, but a third slam victory is asking too much. I don’t see another run being made by Marin Cilic or Kei Nishikori. Potential finals could be made by Milos Raonic at Wimbledon and John Isner at the U.S. Open if they serve out of this world for a whole fortnight, but even those are long-shots at best.
Steen: I don’t see someone outside the big 4 winning a slam title, but I think we’ll see at least one non-Big four finalist in a slam this year. Federer, Murray, and Nadal off of clay are all vulnerable to an upset before the final in a way Djokovic isn’t. Wawrinka, Nishikori, and even players like Tsonga, Raonic, or Kyrgios have the ability to make runs on multiple surfaces.
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8) Who is you best bet to qualify for the World Tour Finals that didn’t in 2015? And whom will he replace?
Ricky: I wouldn’t be overly surprised if it’s the exact same field of eight. David Ferrer is the obvious choice to exit, but I’m done forecasting the Spaniard’s relative demise. The guy is an absolute machine–and will continue to be regardless of his age. If I had to pick any change, I’d go with John Isner replacing Nishikori. Whichever one stays healthier throughout the entire season could punch his ticket to London.
Steen: Fabio Fognini has the talent, but most likely a Frenchman will find his way into the top 8. It could be either Gasquet or Tsonga, with an outside chance of a healthy Monfils. Ferrer or Tomas Berdych could potentially slip up, and a player like Nishikori is brittle enough to get hurt and miss the top 8 because of missed time on tour.
9) How many Americans will finish the season in the Top 50?
Ricky: I’ll go with five, which is two more than the current number. Isner and Sock are obviously locks. Steve Johnson is on the rise and is already up to 32nd. Sam Querrey is boring but should be able to get back into the mix. Donald Young is the risky pick here, but he should do enough damage at home in the United States to finish in the top 50. None of the young guns will be ready by 2016 and Ryan Harrison won’t get into enough main draws with his current ranking of No. 113.
Steen: Four Americans is my call, Isner, Sock, and Johnson should be able to hold serve in the top 50, and Young, Querrey, and Denis Kudla have the ability to do the same–with dark-horse shots for Jared Donaldson or Francis Tiafoe should they catch fire and take advantage of their wild-card opportunities.
10) Best year: Goffin, Paire, Tomic, or Thiem?
Ricky: This one will likely come down to Goffin or Thiem. Paire and Tomic are wildly inconsistent both on the court in the head. The Frenchman also has an extensive history of injuries. Thiem may eventually have a better career than Goffin and the Austrian has the firepower with which to win slams. But the Belgian is 25 years old to Thiem’s 22. In this era, 25 is much closer to prime-time. Both guys are all-court players who can rack up points whenever, wherever. They are headed for the top 10 at some point, but Goffin will get closer in 2015.
Steen: Paire could make some deep runs and notch upset wins, but Goffin should finish ranked the highest and have the best season overall. He’s a consistent ball-striker with a clear head–unlike Paire and Tomic–and his peak outside clay is better than Thiem’s. Thiem should have a good clay-court season, but points and performance-wise Goffin should maintain the edge this year and continue his top-20 form.
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5) JMDP is one of my favorite players. I think his attitude is great and his game is so exciting to watch with his forehand and all. A comeback to top 50 would be awesome. I can see it happening but at same time it’s not necessarily super likely. I will say though del po with his skill level could make huge resurgence like he has in the past. It’s not like he is 30 now I mean he’s not young anymore so that still pisses me off how unlucky this guy is. If he does come back I say he comes back strong and ends the year somewhere around 50 or 60.
6) I say NK just because he has more tools and a higher ceiling like you said and socks backhand is better now but still limits him imo. Plus he does have big serve but doesn’t have as efficient as kyrgios imo. Nicks attitude seems way better lately so I see him having a good year next year possibly a spot for the top 10, which isn’t too far-fetched imo.
7) This is a tough one for me. I want to say yes but I’m not sure. Two guys outside big four won in 2014 and one did last year. I have a feeling Stan will make final somewhere. To be specific I guess I’ll go with a different one this year. U.S. Open. I’m thinking he reaches final and plays one of big four. Whether he wins I don’t know. It’s too early to tell whether Stan will be in good form heading in so this is just kind of going out on a limb. Anyways I’ll go bold and say Stan the man takes the U.S. Open or at least another slam next year.
8) I’ll go somewhat bold and say NK to replace ferrer or berdych more likely ferrer. And maybe Nishikori due to all his injury problems that could hold him back and give someone like Isner or Anderson a chance. I want to say Isner but I think Anderson with better ground game would be my next pick to replace Nishikori. Isner could very well qualify if he stays healthy and consistent though.
9) I’m gonna go with seven: Big John, J-Sizzle, Querrey, Johnson, DY(maybe not though) and two young guns perhaps fritz and tiafoe or maybe replace one with Donaldson or kudla.
10) Goffin is simply the most consistent so I’ll pick him but all of them could do well. Thiem has lots of skill and promise and Paire is such a talent and Tomic seems less erratic as of late. I’ll take Goffin but I have a feeling this safer pick could definitely be the wrong pick. Sorry this one is even longer lol.
testing?
I don’t know about others, but can’t really see anyone beating Nole at Australian Open and Wimbledon.
I get your point, but it’s not going to sit well with some. I think he’s going to be the obvious favorite at the AO, but I am not as sure about Wimbledon. I am thinking that Murray will come out playing well in 2016. He looked much better in 2015 and there’s no reason to think he’s not going to continue in the new year.
It’s not about Muzz.
The level of play Nole has showed at the past 2 finals at Wimbledon, only Roger when having his best FH day can stand up and beat him.
Muzz doesn’t even have Roger’s serve to make it that competitive.
More than that, I’m not really convinced if Murray will get past Federer if the 2 play again at Wimbledon.I feel Muzz played his best at Wimbledon in 2012 yet he ended up short against Roger.
He may have won the title in 2013, but his level of play in 2012 was the best he has put on display.
what about Olympics 2012?!!
What exactly about Olympics 2012?
His level of play was the same as Wimbledon 2012 during the Olympics.
No, it was higher in the Olympic games. Certainly. Don’t tell me you think federer got dominated in 3 sets 6-2 6-1 6-4 just because he was tired! Do you realize how dominant this scoreline is on a grass court ? Esp against someone who serves as well as federer?
Still remember Murray being unplayable in the second set especially. His backhand was something else that day.
Wimbledon definitely possible
Except Stanimal more likely in Melbourne and Roger more likely at wimby if he stops playing amazing all tournament then serving at his worst of the tournament in the final because of fatigue. I would actually rather have fed play nole in semis next year so he isn’t tired and serving worse. I mean he was nowhere near the way he played against muzz in the SF when he stepped on the court for the title match against Novak this year.
vamosrafa,
Thanks for joining the discussion. However, I did want to let abhirf know that I didn’t mean it to sound like I only think Murray has a shot to beat Novak. I know it came out that way, but all I was trying to say is that I do think there will be competition for Novak in 2016.
I think vamosrafa makes a good point in bringing up the 2012 Olympics. Nobody blows Fed off the court on grass unless they are playing some great tennis. I guess what I am saying, is that Murray has the capability to play well enough to challenge Novak. He’s done it in the past. I guess your sense would be that Novak is at another level now. But I still think Murray has a chance against him.
Stan could have a shot at Novak at the AO, but that depends on how the draw shakes out. We know that Stan has the game to beat Novak in slams. As I said, Novak is the obvious fsvorite going into the AO, but I think there are some others who may have a chance.
As far as Wimbledon, I can’t see Fed taking out Novak again in a final. Murray could do it. We also aren’t talking about Rafa at all because we don’t know yet how he will look in 2016. I am not sure that Rafa can do it at the AO. He will still be #5 and that could mean meeting Novak in the quarterfinals. He may just not be ready that soon. But I expect Rafa to be there in the clay season. He hasn’t been able to do well at Wimbledon, but you just never know. We will have to wait and see.
A red hot Murray would stand a better chance to beat Novak at Wimbledon. Federer has had his chances for two years in a row now. He could not beat Novak and this year’s win was kind of comprehensive for Novak.
Problem for fed is he cannot seem to hang with Novak over 4-5 sets. He has always had the same issues against Rafa. Unless federer overcomes that issue somehow, he will lose again.
@NNY, yes, stan has the game to take it to Novak at the AO but as you said, we have no idea how the draws will pan out. I hope they draw stan in novak’s qtr. Lol
@vamosrafa – as I said before, his game level was the same at olympics as it was at Wimbledon. Muzza played great in Wimby Final but couldn’t win.Fed was really dialled in that Final.
Fed’s performance in that Olympic final was a forgetful one to say the least. Never seen him play that nervously in any match in his career. He was hardly middling one shot out of 10 that day.
Murray played great, but nothing really to suggest that he played better than Wimbledon.
I know a lot of casual tennis fans who are convinced that Fed tanked the Olympic final so that Murray would win it in front of his home crowd. They will not accept that Fed badly wants an Olympic Singles Gold, that Fed will not tank a final and definitely not for Murray, even if in an alternate world he did consider tanking a match.
The same type of casual fans also claimed Djoker let Andy win Wimbledon in 2013! Andy is lucky to have such generous rivals who are willing to sacrifice their place in history!!!
Casual fans or imaginary fans lol.
Suffice to say, I do not agree with the contention that Fed didn’t play well against Murray in the Olympic final. Fed wanted to win an Olympic gold medal in singles because it’s missing from his resume. There is no way he would just come out and play mediocre tennis to hand Murray the gold medal. I guess it’s convenient to forget just how well Murray was playing at that time.
Stan is No 4..he will have a qtr of his own.
Sanju,
Yes, you are correct. My bad! So Stan can’t meet Novak until the semifinals.
I was hoping Murray to stop Nole in AO 2016. But, with his baby arrival, Murray can not concentrate. Murray is not that strong mentally to focus on multiple things. He easily gives up and justifies himself that losing is Ok.
probably wouldnt have anyway…..
is Murray gonna leave in the middle of the Aussie if his baby is born then?
Well, one can hope. I am hoping Muzz will come out with a statement before AO that his impending fatherhood is inspiring him and he wants to present the AO slam cup ( Norman Brookes) to Kim as his tribute to her approaching motherhood. Hope the newspapers bore us with all such statements like they did with Djoker and his fatherhood.
Thank goodness Muzz doesn’t go in for contrived ‘sound bite’ comments like Djokovic. Mind you, the commies are the worst culprits. To a man they regurgitated the fact ad infinitum that Nole was playing in his first tournament since becoming a father. What Andy has said is he is prepared to withdraw from the AO to be there for Kim should the baby be premature.
Murray should just skip the AO so that Rafa can be No 4 🙂 and Rafa should be placed in Feds half 🙂
Those are some interesting thoughts. Oh and burning question #11: Will Donald Trump become a tennis fan in 2016?
yes?